TWG CII: Srcmalbed Eggs

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Who did you try and Roleblock FireArrow? It obviously wasn't the vigi but it could be beneficial info for one of our specials if you roleblocked them by accident

[BlackDragonSlayer]

curse of the first post of the page

[BrainyLucario]

Oh that. Thanks for clarifying

[Toby]

What post of mine are we talking about? The one where I got frustrated for Toby ignoring me?

I'm sorry you got frustrated

[BrainyLucario]

I'm sorry you got frustrated

Ah it's fine. Don't worry about it

[E. Gadd Industries]

Alrighty, let's get down to business. Sorry for my relative inactivity, it won't be like that again (since I've finished registration & etc.)
So I'm going to do a player analysis, given there's been a reasonable amount of activity from everyone (except for THC & Brawler). I'll be splitting this into suspicion tiers.
Please note that I'm only addressing posts made in this thread since keeping up with the Discord is more difficult if you don't check it and end up missing 1100+ messages in one period of time.

Human Reads
-FireArrow
Literally everyone alive didn't counter your blocker claim, so the only way you aren't human is if you're a wolf that's extremely lucky or extremely skilled.
-BDS
You've contributed much to the conversations, as have FA & Toby both, and you seem to be hunting wolves very diligently, calling various posts out as suspicious (even going so far as to draw attention to Tras's post that people didn't seem to notice).

On the fence
-Trasdegi
I'm not quite sure, but this seems like the most active game you've played that I've been in with you, which gives you human points in my eyes (given you've tended to the side of inactivity when you've played as a wolf in previous games). That said, your posts are rather general, stating more obvious (albeit helpful) things, such as

For the specials: please wait a couple hours before claiming to allow any potential counterclaim to happen.

Then there's the post you made more recently:

I think the seer should tell firearrow to post his check. That way we'll either have a confirmed human or a good lynching target. If it's blue, then just say it's blue.

This post is getting some resistance from BDS and more indirect disagreement from Toby. I can see the merits in both sides of the arguments here, although I believe it'd only be most necessary to mention a red check posted with telling evidence, if at all possible.

Somewhere between neutral & suspicious
-Toby
So I'm going to be outright with you, this one's a hard situation. Yes, you were a red check, which instantly makes you seem suspicious, but I personally don't think you've been the most suspicious player so far. That said, I'm not used to your playstyle, and so it's been tough for me trying to determine what's playstyle and what're possible tells. I haven't quite understood your reasoning behind certain things you've suggested/said/done, but most of that has been addressed by other players, so I don't see much of a point in bringing it back up just for you to have to readdress the comment. Or not. Which brings me to my next point.

Most likely a wolf
-BrainyLucario
You've done some pretty weird stuff this game, and it's tough trying to separate your posts because you're just as much of a wild card at times as mikey. I particularly find it interesting that you got offended for some reason by Toby's ignoring your post, and your desire to know who FA blocked (especially publicly?). But that said, both points have also been addressed by others, so there isn't much else to say here.

Please post more
-ThatHiddenCharacter
Unless I missed something somewhere, nothing meaningful has been posted, and only one thing has been said from you (although I don't guess I have all that much room to talk). Please post more.

-Brawler4Ever
You had the one post earlier in the game in which you advocated for following the plan where the specials didn't target themselves, but whomever they found suspicious, breaking it down mathematically and the like. This gives you a slight human lean to me, but seeing as that's the only thing you've said seriously, I don't have all that much to go on.

[Toby]

I haven't quite understood your reasoning behind certain things you've suggested/said/done, but most of that has been addressed by other players,

I felt my reasoning for things has usually been very clear, but I guess I've been wrong. If there are any extra points you want me to explain please don't hesitate to bring them up.

[BrainyLucario]

E. Gadd, your reasoning for suspecting me as a wolf is pitiful. My getting frustrated for being ignored is in no way a teller in if I'm a wolf or not, as a human player would also probably get annoyed if he was ignored. As for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth. All your points against me are just restatements of what other people have pointed out as slightly suspicious, yet I'm on your most likely a wolf list when there are clearly better wolves. Say the guy who got red checked? Explain that

[Brawler4Ever]

Not revealing means that he could potentially catch a wolf.

me: "I saw that xxx player is green."

FA: "How? I roleblocked you."

me: "..."

FA publicly announcing his roleblock removes that opportunity.

[BrainyLucario]

Not revealing means that he could potentially catch a wolf.

me: "I saw that xxx player is green."

FA: "How? I roleblocked you."

me: "..."

FA publicly announcing his roleblock removes that opportunity.

That is a good point

[E. Gadd Industries]

E. Gadd, your reasoning for suspecting me as a wolf is pitiful. My getting frustrated for being ignored is in no way a teller in if I'm a wolf or not, as a human player would also probably get annoyed if he was ignored.

U wot. If someone ignored me, as has been done in previous games, I wouldn't get frustrated, but rather get kinda suspicious. If anyone wants to lend their opinion to this, go ahead. If anything, I see this as Toby trying to distance himself from you as wolf partner and you not taking a hint or some other weird reason. It's almost like what happened last game between Samus & Waluigi, with Waluigi not responding to ANYTHING Samus said.

As for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth.

I can respect this reasoning, but it is a bit nearsighted.

All your points against me are just restatements of what other people have pointed out as slightly suspicious, yet I'm on your most likely a wolf list when there are clearly better wolves. Say the guy who got red checked? Explain that

*ahem* read the last sentence of my post concerning you. If anything, you're restating that part of my argument. And those last two sentences make no sense, so I can't explain that. Could you explain that?

I felt my reasoning for things has usually been very clear, but I guess I've been wrong. If there are any extra points you want me to explain please don't hesitate to bring them up.

I'll read through the thread again for specifics at some point. Today promises to be rather busy.

Ninja'd
...yeah. Hence the shortsightedness.

[BrainyLucario]

Oh yeah, you did mention that they've been restated. Still, it seems like your relying on others more than your own suspicion.

[BrainyLucario]

Despite this, the best lynch today imo is Toby, even If he could possibly be the Miller, a red check is a red check in this game and should almost never be left to chance when we have few mislynches

[Trasdegi]

I was thinking: we have a 20% chance that the wolves (or the vigi) killed the roleblocker n1, and thus a 20% chance of firearrow being a wolf and knowing all the specials, and so we've a 20% chance of (almost certainly) loosing. But we can't do anything about that.

With the 20% chance of FA being a lucky wolf + the ~23% chance of Toby being the Miller + the fact that Toby played very humanly and contributed a lot and often, well... That (weak) red check is still a red check.

Now, the arguing between E.Gadd and Brainy is interesting. This seems suspicious:

As for the FA Roleblock claim, I honestly thought it could do no harm and help confirm hi roleblock role. If a player was roleblocked last night they would be able to tell if he was lying and would be more likely to contact him if he was telling the truth.

Besides FA, there's max. 3 specials, 2 humans and 2 wolves. The humans and wolves (4/7) wouldn't know they were roleblocked so they couldn't use this to help confirm him. I don't think the odds of a roleblock claim being useful are high enough for it to happen.

[BrainyLucario]

Fair point. That being said, I'm going to place my vote on Toby today. I'm praying he's a wolf but unless the wolves got the Seer night 1 there is a good chance that he's a wolf or the miller