TWG CI: Hydradoodle

[TWG Samus]

Agreed, no votes until discussion has run its course. I am currently going back through the thread and analyzing posts with the information you just disclosed in mind, and I'll share my thoughts after that.

[TWG Luigi]

Also for us and ness pms

first heres what my inbox looks like:

Replied To   March 14, 2018, 11:32:30 PM   Green Check   TWG Ness   
Read   March 15, 2018, 03:22:24 AM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness   
Replied To   March 15, 2018, 06:30:43 AM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness   
Read   March 15, 2018, 07:52:09 PM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness   
Replied To   March 15, 2018, 08:54:49 PM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness   
Read   Today at 06:25:49 AM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness   
Replied To   Today at 11:11:33 AM   Re: Green Check   TWG Ness

and then here's some pm's:
quote author=TWG Ness link=action=profile;u=3625 date=1521088350]
I lied on the thread. You're actually my green check, but if I said that, Waluigi definitely could easily get me lynched because I already seem suspicious. He really was a red check, though. I just hope Samus doesn't turn out to be a wolf cause that'll be hard to explain in the future.
[/quote]

Not claiming to you was a brain fart on my part. While I realised that green checks were confirmed humans this game (due to the lack of master wolves) I didn't realise that also meant they should be part of the alliance (due to being confirmed). I very strongly disagree with my partners decision to fake our green check and I think our best course of action is to withdraw that claim and claim our actual green check, but I would like to hear your opinion about that.

Sorry, I have no idea what I'm doing and my experienced partner has been purposefully inactive to get wolves to not wolf us night 1.

I'm a bit worried about this night phase. If the other wolf is still alive and smart, they might wolf someone else to make people even more suspicious of me. I hope that doesn't happen. Don't think I've ever wanted to be wolfed before now. I wish this game had roleflips.

I made a grave mistake lying about Samus being our green check. I can't see Haruhi being the other wolf, which means that if the game doesn't end at a Waluigi lynch, then Samus is the only other option because Pikachu actually seems human to me now. I don't think a wolf would vote for their partner when there's still enough doubt to get people to vote for someone else.

Yeah, you should do that. If people question you, I can confirm before I get wolfed.

I think claiming to the topic is definately the thing to go for, but just right before the phase updates. Not wolfing us is the worst choice that the wolf could make since it gives us perfect knowledge of the remaining roles, and by not claiming until the last possible seccond, they might just make that choice.

I have not messaged Samus, since I didn't see a reason to do that. He is supposed to be confirmed in the topic so there was no need to contact him privately. Contacting him privately right now will just ammount to raising his suspicions.

In other news, I just send in my seering on Pikachu

theres all the received ones, i could send you sent ones as well but i feel like this is hopefully enough lol

[TWG Luigi]

its really late now and im going to sleep but i'll be thinking about who to vote and i'll re read the topic with a fresh mind tomorrow, and hopefully maybe there's something from samus and pikachu i can see by tomorrow lol

[TWG Pikachu]

Alright, TWG Samus being the green check was really messing with my head because it would of meant Waluigi and Luigi were partners. This means Samus is the wolf, so I suppose my job now is to convince luigi that. Honestly, Samus hasn't done anything too sus so wp, but I'll read through the thread.

Someone seems awfully paranoid...

In my original post of the night phase, I totally forgot that someone was gonna die. When I realized that, I was about to completely change my line of logic and talking about Ness being confirmed based on whether or not he gets wolfed. Then I realized correcting myself might give senior wolf the idea of framing Ness by leaving him alive, and I really did not want to deal with those kind of mind games. I honestly enjoy the turn of events right now because It's so much simpler.

[TWG Pikachu]

^Maroon Pikachu btw

[TWG Pikachu]

Ok, woah, wait a hot second here. Waluigi is a confirmed wolf, yes? Samus:
1. Immediately voted Waluigi after Luigi d1.
2. Insta'd him day 3.

There's some talent behind that account. Anyways, here's what I could get:

1. Despite Samus constantly putting pressure on Waluigi, not once did Waluigi respond or even adress him. All of Waluigi's rage was focused at Luigi. This is pretty strong evidence for partnership, but by no fault of Samus.
2. Since I was the only one this entire game vouching for Waluigi's humanity, when I was the first person to vote him day 2 his lynch was pretty much inevitable. Therefore, the insta doesn't really mean too much.

Agreed, no votes until discussion has run its course. I am currently going back through the thread and analyzing posts with the information you just disclosed in mind, and I'll share my thoughts after that.

This is the only thing they ever said that I find suspicous. When luigi said he was the green check, a human Samus should of instantly though "yo, that means Pikachu is a wolf."
[/color]

gtg maybe will finish later?

[TWG Samus]

I've been talking it over with my other head, and at this point we really don't have any reason to think that Pikachu isn't the remaining wolf. Here's what we've found:
- Pikachu emphasized communication between heads right at the start of the game. There's nothing inherently wrong with this, but he then went on to establish that communication between heads is more helpful to wolves and specials than anyone else, while it still "isn't to say it's not something town should try to do or that suggesting everyone try and get in communication is suspicious behavior". His original post seems like a nudge at his wolf partner, disguised as a helpful hint for the humans, while posting conflicting opinions in the next post seems like backpedaling to cover over himself.
- Pikachu spent a large amount of time during the game defending Waluigi under the pretense that "no wolf would act so controversially so early in the game." ([Post][Post][Post]) Generalizing how a wolf will play is a shaky move, and no player is guaranteed to play any role a certain way. This feels like a cover for Waluigi's antics to try and draw attention away from him and towards inactive players, who Pikachu argues could potentially be wolves, but are also incredibly likely to be the seer.
- Pikachu only changed his suspicions to Waluigi after Luigi called him out for his defense, and doubled down when Ness claimed and revealed his red seering. On top of that, he invoked the strategy Charu proposed during the last game, where an uncontested seering must be trusted. When the two players who had died so far were mostly inactive, which is a strategy a seer would be wise to adhere to, as Ness stated in the PM's ("my experienced partner has been purposefully inactive to get wolves to not wolf us night 1"), there was really no reason to believe Ness had to be the seer when there was possibility that the seer might already be dead. This looks like an attempt to encourage people to focus on Waluigi and away from Pikachu's earlier defense of him.

In response to the above post:

This is the only thing they ever said that I find suspicous. When luigi said he was the green check, a human Samus should of instantly though "yo, that means Pikachu is a wolf."

I mean, yeah, that is what we instantly thought. But with Luigi dropping a lot of information all at once there was a lot we needed to recontextualize and put together based on the new information we had. That's what you see above.

[TWG Pikachu]

Alright, post time. For reference, it was the other head who was defending waluigi in phase 1. I'm the one who posted the list of 4 possible outcomes for Ness' humanity. It's probably been said before, but lemme just put out my argument so nothing is missed and because that's how I do this.
First of all, Ness getting wolfed confirms his humanity 100%. This means that Waluigi was a wolf, and that haruhi was a poorly played human. Now that luigi is a confirmed human, it's down to either Samus or me as the wolf.
Reasons for Samus:
--

I'm not convinced Ness is just a seer who is playing badly. Seering Waluigi red is absolutely the safest possible false seering someone could make, aside from seering Luigi green, but no good seer would seer Luigi night 1 after Waluigi's antics and Luigi's...well, non-antics. Secondly, yes it's possible that Ness just forgot to contact me, but that's less possible given that he almost got lynched day 1. In fact, he would have been lynched if that one vote had been properly counted. Whose vote was that again? Right, the human he supposedly had a green check for. Don't you think he would have made some attempt to message me after I voted to say "wait, don't vote for me, I'm the seer and I saw you green, let's talk"? Or even during the night phase to say "you almost got me killed, let's make sure that doesn't happen again." As it stands, Ness is playing things way too close to the chest and way too risky if he really is the seer, which I don't believe he is.

That being said, Waluigi is definitely the safest lynch to go for today, so I'm still completely willing to lynch him first if that's the decision we come to. However, keep Ness at the front of your mind.

Looking through the thread, this is the biggest well-played wolf tell. It goes out of it's way to smear the negative opinion on waluigi, but then goes along with it in the end. Also note that Samus was the last vote for waluigi while we were the first.

Reasons against me us:

I've been talking it over with my other head, and at this point we really don't have any reason to think that Pikachu isn't the remaining wolf. Here's what we've found:

Tbh this is the softest wolf call-out I've ever seen. Samus has been consistently avoiding direct statements like "X is a wolf and here's why" or "Ness isn't the seer and here's why." This may not mean everything in the long run, but it certainly feels wolf-ish.

- Pikachu emphasized communication between heads right at the start of the game. There's nothing inherently wrong with this, but he then went on to establish that communication between heads is more helpful to wolves and specials than anyone else, while it still "isn't to say it's not something town should try to do or that suggesting everyone try and get in communication is suspicious behavior". His original post seems like a nudge at his wolf partner, disguised as a helpful hint for the humans, while posting conflicting opinions in the next post seems like backpedaling to cover over himself.

I think this is grasping at straws? At this point I had no clue who my partner was as they didn't post until pg 4. I didn't realize that the PM sent to us had the recipients in it. And why is this wolfish? What makes communication between heads so much more helpful for wolves than humans that one or two posts about it trying to sent my other head a hint pegs me as a wolf? I don't get this argument at all.

I think this post makes sense but it probably doesn't. Feel free to poke holes in my logic or something and I'll answer questions as best I can.

Halfway through writing this post I found out my other head was responding as well so we split up the response to Samus

[TWG Pikachu]

Well for one, I never changed my suspicion until ness claimed wah was red. You seem to forget that if Ness wasn't the seer, there was a green check that could also counter claim. That would of meant both of them were the only two dead players, and the likelyhood of that is what made me change my suspicion. My partner was already on board with a wah lynch since d1, so it went through pretty easily.

Also that is a really dumb wolf plan you seem to be accusing me of? Getting my partner lynched in a LYLO phase to so I can use it as evidence to dig myself out of the bad situation I put myself in d3 by lynching him in the first place?

If I was a wolf, I would of known Ness was the real seer and could of taken advantage of everyone's ambivalance to try and get ness lynched. This would been very doable, given how everyone else was publically walking the line.

In response to the above post:I mean, yeah, that is what we instantly thought. But with Luigi dropping a lot of information all at once there was a lot we needed to recontextualize and put together based on the new information we had. That's what you see above.

There's not much to recontextualize. It's nothing more than you being needlessly cautious to try and look human. He's confirmed human, I'm human, that means he's wolf - there's absolutely no reason for a human to play passive at that point.

Also you defending purple samus here instead of waiting for him to answer is awfully scummy.

"Hey, dude, I want to recontexualize this stuff before saying anything."
"Yeah me too dude"
"Alright, we'll make a post about how we want to read the thread before mentioning pikas name."

That's not the kind of post your partner would tell you their reasoning for making.

[TWG Luigi]

My head (heads?) hurts. You two (four?) uh, go 'head and... uh, argue it out, and we'll try and sort through the mess and hope we don't make the wrong decision.

[TWG Pikachu]

Summary because information can get easily lost in text wall back and forths. Red = big tell, orange = moderate tell.

Reasons against samus:
-Although Samus did a very good job of distancing from Waluigi, Waluigi did not. Despite Samus' multiple attacks on Waluigi, he did not respond to a single one of them or publically interact with samus in anyway.
-During the day 2 lynch, he was applying pressure to a Ness lynch whilst subtly defending waluigi. Waited until the lynch was set in stone before voting.
-Has played this phase very passively, which is unusualy behavior for a human who should immediately know who the wolf is.
-The two samus heads have been constantly playing as a single entity rather than two seperate wolf hunting entities. Even so far as too defend the logic of the other head.

Reasons against us, with a response:
-Pikachu has been defending Waluigi all game.
       +One of us has, the other has not.  You know how Waluigi has been avoiding interacting with Samus, that's what someone who doesn't know how to distance does. They don't create
         painfully obvious partnerships.
-Pikachu contradicted himself about differentiating heads.
       +Well, as my other head pointed out, there wasn't anything wolfy about that in the first place? Second, the contradiction is two seperate heads posting seperate opinions.
-Pikachu started the Waluigi bandwagon to look more human.
       +This would of just been a dumb idea considering how possible a Ness lynch was (snice no one thought about green check counter claims, apperantly?)

I think that's everything?

[TWG Luigi]

Would you be able to include links to any specific posts that jump out to you please? Inevitably, both of us are going to (or should; technically I can't *make* anyone do anything) read over the whole game taking your arguments into account, but for a summary, links to the posts that exemplify what you're talking about would be nice.

[TWG Pikachu]

-not sure how to provide quotes for the first point since its referencing every single one of waluigi's posts
-point 2 see blue pikas post
-point 3 see my first post this phase
-point 4 is pretty much everything samus has said, but the same quote for point 3 is a pertinent example of them acting as one unit of thought.

I've been procrastinating homework long enough, but if you want more meat on any of these I'll be happy to oblige.

[TWG Samus]

Well goodness, looks like thinking I could go to bed tonight was a mistake. Let's break this down, shall we?

I think this is grasping at straws? At this point I had no clue who my partner was as they didn't post until pg 4. I didn't realize that the PM sent to us had the recipients in it.

I have to be blunt here and say that there is really no excuse for this. I was able to see immediately who my partner was based on my PM, and taking so long for either of you to make a connection is baffling.

And why is this wolfish? What makes communication between heads so much more helpful for wolves than humans that one or two posts about it trying to sent my other head a hint pegs me as a wolf? I don't get this argument at all.

It's less that you made a few posts about it and more about the content of this post in particular. You intially reminded everyone to check their PM's, but then agreed that communication between heads is better for wolves, but then said it's not inherently suspicious anyway. It seems like you're simultaneously arguing that communication is both suspicious and not suspicious. Admittedly, this is my weakest argument, but it's worth taking into consideration.

Well for one, I never changed my suspicion until ness claimed wah was red. You seem to forget that if Ness wasn't the seer, there was a green check that could also counter claim. That would of meant both of them were the only two dead players, and the likelyhood of that is what made me change my suspicion.

Ness admitted himself that he forgot that having a green check meant he could set up an alliance. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think that a potentially different seer could have also forgotten to claim to their human, who then wouldn't know to counterclaim a false seer. Ness's claims were still incredibly safe ones; jumping from defending Waluigi as soon as Ness posted seems too safe.

My partner was already on board with a wah lynch since d1, so it went through pretty easily.

Given that you spent all of day one arguing against a Waluigi lynch, it would have been nice for your partner to make this apparent then, or for you to say something about your partner's opinion then.

Also that is a really dumb wolf plan you seem to be accusing me of? Getting my partner lynched in a LYLO phase to so I can use it as evidence to dig myself out of the bad situation I put myself in d3 by lynching him in the first place?

Waluigi was on everybody's lynch list day 2. When you've spent all of day 1 saying his lynch is a bad idea, turning your vote around day 2 would be the best way to distance yourself from him. Since you voted first, that means you could show your distrust of Waluigi without making it too close to actually killing him. Taking the vote off after everybody agreed to lynch him would've looked way too suspicious.

If I was a wolf, I would of known Ness was the real seer and could of taken advantage of everyone's ambivalance to try and get ness lynched. This would been very doable, given how everyone else was publically walking the line.

Like I said during my analysis of Ness's claim, Waluigi was the safest, most-likely-to-be-a-wolf lynch for day 2. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Ness, there was general certainty around Waluigi, which would be very hard to sway.

There's not much to recontextualize. It's nothing more than you being needlessly cautious to try and look human. He's confirmed human, I'm human, that means he's wolf - there's absolutely no reason for a human to play passive at that point.

Purple made that post on his own, I wasn't able to be here until a couple hours after phase change. We'd been operating on the assumption that Ness was a wolf and he didn't want to make any moves until I was aware of the situation. Purple's a little shy but he was watching the discussion, so he posted to indicate he was active. I would definitely have encouraged an aggressive start, and that's what my long post was for.

Also you defending purple samus here instead of waiting for him to answer is awfully scummy.

I wasn't "waiting for him to answer." He read through the thread while I was unavailable and then messaged me about it when I got on. The post I made was a consolidation of our resulting discussion. We're going into the final day phase, we wanted a strong post against you to lead with.

Reasons against us, with a response:
-Pikachu has been defending Waluigi all game.
       +One of us has, the other has not.

You keep saying this. Where was blue head day 1 to say this? There was ample time to acknowledge a disagreement between you two.

You know how Waluigi has been avoiding interacting with Samus, that's what someone who doesn't know how to distance does. They don't create painfully obvious partnerships.

I think we all have a pretty good idea who the most vocal Waluigi head was in reality. The player I'm thinking of seems to really enjoy doing his own thing and not addressing the claims against him in favor of loudly proclaiming that he's right and you're all stupid. I don't think there's anyone he reacted to positively in any way, except you, notably.

-Pikachu contradicted himself about differentiating heads.
       +Well, as my other head pointed out, there wasn't anything wolfy about that in the first place? Second, the contradiction is two seperate heads posting seperate opinions.

Again, this was my weakest argument, so I won't press on it much. But it would have been nice to acknowledge that the contradiction was the result of separate heads, especially when you claim that blue head was for a Waluigi lynch since day 1 but there's no evidence of that in topic.

-Pikachu started the Waluigi bandwagon to look more human.
       +This would of just been a dumb idea considering how possible a Ness lynch was (snice no one thought about green check counter claims, apperantly?)

And I already addressed this one above.

FOR LUIGI:
Point 1: Pikachu seems to contradict himself about whether inter-head coordination is suspicious
Point 2: Pikachu defends Waluigi all of day 1 because no wolf would be this bold on day 1 (three separate links)
Point 3: Pikachu stops defending Waluigi completely once Ness claims seer and emphasizes that Ness has to be believed if he goes uncontested

[TWG Pikachu]

Ness admitted himself that he forgot that having a green check meant he could set up an alliance. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think that a potentially different seer could have also forgotten to claim to their human, who then wouldn't know to counterclaim a false seer. Ness's claims were still incredibly safe ones; jumping from defending Waluigi as soon as Ness posted seems too safe.

Waluigi was on everybody's lynch list day 2. When you've spent all of day 1 saying his lynch is a bad idea, turning your vote around day 2 would be the best way to distance yourself from him. Since you voted first, that means you could show your distrust of Waluigi without making it too close to actually killing him. Taking the vote off after everybody agreed to lynch him would've looked way too suspicious.

Alrighty, I think you've made a slip and we've got a checkmate. You claim:

Quote 1: This is you trying to justify you deflecting suspicion onto Ness while trying to avoiding buddying with Waluigi by making it look like being Ness' error made him look extremely wolfy and your suspicion was not an unfounded attempt to save your partner.

Quote 2: You say this to as a point to make me look like a wolf... but hey! Look what you said in point one, Ness was a suspicios dude and therefore a viable lynch target! Ooooh, I also aready had the precedent of thinking Waluigi was human, and thinking Ness was the last wolf. But wait, there's more - if I lynch Ness that phase, I win the game! You know what would of been a great move, trying to get Ness lynched. But you know what I did instead? I brought up a point no one had said yet trying to confirms Ness' humanity to start a waluigi lynch so that way no one will think I could possibly be his partner! The best part is that people are so suspicios of Ness that they'll lynch him anyways and my partner won't die so I guess nothing I did mattered anyways! Ahuhuhuhu~excuse my sarcasm

Obviously our move greatly helped the humans (also admittedly our only good move this game), so which is it? Was Ness a viable lynch target I could of pushed for or were you wrong to try and throw shade on him? Or maybe I'm just stupid and distancing was totally the best move in that situation, but that's for luigi to decide.