TWG 100th Anniversary: Dinner and a Show

[FireArrow]

Does anyone know who Thicc actually is? Noc keeps saying shit like "remember Mashi's game where they had to lynch Mashi" and it's making me think this whole situation is some kind of prank. By no means am I certain of this, or even think its probable, but it's worth considering since

Human leans:

Olimar12345

Basically a confirmed human in my eyes, partly for reasons I'm not allowed to discuss. There's a few things that concern me about his play, but he's been extremely active, vocal, and aggressive. Wolves don't like to make enemies or take sides if they don't have to - if Olimar's a wolf, he's a fearless one.

There is the possibility that wolves seered davy, thicc is his partner along with two other less active members, and olimar is raging over his mia teammate. It woud explain a lot, I just don't see any merit going further with this theory unless the dudeman/raeko situation ends up fruitless or there's a neat new development.

TZP

His posts are infrequent, but every single one brings something new to the table. I don't just mean elaborating on things people already said, it's either coming up with new ideas or saying things that haven't been said yet. Sure, a lot of his info has been wrong, but given it being somewhat of a pattern across his posts (reviving davy and the brutal human thing), it comes across to me as genuine mistakes rather than wolfy slip ups. I have no reason to suspect him.

BDS

The way he argued against an alliance seemed really strange to me. It almost felt like his goal was to make sure an alliance didn't happen, and coming up with reasons as to why was auxillary. He told me that it was because from his expiriences, alliances can end up being really bad, and granted that he can be stubborn and prideful when it comes to arguments, I'll buy that for a buck. As a lot of people have been pointing out, an alliance in this game isn't nearly as strong as it would be in other games, so I don't see why a wolf would go to such extents to stop one. Everything else he's done has been extremely human looking to me. My only fear is that he always ends up being human when I'm suspicous, so maybe it goes the other way when he's a wolf?

raeko

Honestly all I wanted from your defense was an idea of your skill level and an explanation for that weird n1 post. I got the best possible answer to both. Even though nothing you've done seems wolfy to me, I would of normally still put you under yellow or red just because of how other players acted during your lynch. MSF brought up a really good point though that maybe the wolves seered davy and pushed for that. Would explain the lynch nicely while leaving you and dudeman unconnected.

Slight Wolf Leans:

Bubbles

She's making good posts, but they're just so unagressive I can't help but think somethings up. Wolves don't like enemies, and bubbles is never taking sides or accusing people. Looking at her suspicoun list, there's nothing that really goes above "just a lil" and just when it looks like she's about to, she ends the paragraph with a "but it could just be this and they're acutally human." Wolfy behavior, not really connected to any events in a wolfy way, but that lack of a connection itself is kinda wolfy. Additionaly, the nature of her posts feel like she's more concerned with her own safety than helping the humans.

THC


I think I went over this well enough before. He's basically shouting from the rooftops "I'm a wolf!!!!" while having the composure to not flinch at people calling him out. I don't buy it. Only reason he's here is his voting pattern d1 was just so weird. Switching to a bandwagon vote when we was pressured with a lynch just doesn't sit right and maybe it's his own personal way of freaking out.

Sorry my hw was taking a lot longer than I thought and I gotta get to bed. Will finish this in the morning. In the meantime, dudeman. Long story short, I think we can still figure out the weirdness of the d1 by cardflipping dudeman instead of raeko. Raeko is a lot more likely to human than him at this point and this also covers the possibility that the switch to davy was because of a wolf seering.

[Olimar12345]

Good post, FA. I especially liked the bit on Bubbles, which is something that I didn't pick up on which now I can sort of see. I also agree that at this time I don't think killing raeko is our best move, and that there are better alternates that tell us what we want to hear. While a Dudeman lynch could give us the same results (like you suggested), I think we'd do better with a Brainy lynch. Dudeman's vote does seem like a pivotal point in the previous lynch, but I'm getting wolfy-er vibes from Brainy. The obvious things that I mentioned are that his vote was incredibly sketchy (simply quoting dudeman's post with a lazy "me too") and his overall obsession with everyone's tiny suspicion of himself. What put me over the edge was what happened with the explanation post I last made. MSF and to a lesser extent Dudeman both gave me what I wanted to hear (in some form), but Brainy seemed the most unsure of his actions. But then his insecurities surfaced once more, and he actually beat me to posting the log, which to me comes off as an attempt to post a hasty defense of himself. He also just seemed to have the most to say about the small amount of a post he had before, while taking longer to articulate it, which to me seems more like he had to try harder to come up with something than the others (or anyone who I could ask this question of) had to. He's just a mess rn, I think.

[BrainyLucario]

I mean I can understand everything else but the log post? Seriously?

[BrainyLucario]

Also it's not my fault I'm a slow typer, you should've considered each players typing speed. On top of that, my defensiveness over small suspicions isn't to stop people from being suspicious of me. It's to hear reasoning, to make sure they aren't just trying to start up a lynch when their is nothing to go on. And I'm sorry if being unsure about who to vote on is suspicious, I'm not going to settle on a Canidate just like that so people will keep me out of suspicion. I honestly didn't care who I voted for last day phase.

[BrainyLucario]

I've also made up my mind to not vote today, as I can't decide who to vote for.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I'm going to vote Brainy for reasons I mentioned earlier and because I'm starting to feel it would be a bad idea to lynch Thicc. It really won't help anything.

[BrainyLucario]

Alright, I'm not 100% today, so bare with me. Here's my reasons for suspicions.

Brainy - Whenever Brainy posts anything, and he posts quite a bit, he really doesn't bring anything to the table. (Yes, I know I'm being a hypocrite.) He's still rather low on my suspicion list, cause it seems like he's at least trying to help the humans. And there have been a couple of instances where he's said useful stuff.

For being low on your suspicion list, you sure jumped at the opportunity to vote for me right after someone else did

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

For being low on your suspicion list, you sure jumped at the opportunity to vote for me right after someone else did

I was going to vote for you last night, but I was sick and ended up falling asleep before I could. I was actually a bit frustrated when I saw Olimar voted for you cause I realized people would think I was bandwagoning.

[Monika]

Vote count:
ThatHiddenCharacter- (Dudeman, ) 1
BrainyLucario- (ThatHiddenCharacter, Olimar12345, ) 2
Dudeman- (FireArrow, ) 1

[Bubbles]

A little summary of my thoughts from this phase, a sort of follow-up to my earlier suspicion list:

Olimar is putting in a lot of work (even a little bit of shifty business!! you sneak) and really seems to be creating and leading discussions. He's probably number one human in my book rn, any baseless suspicion I had that I referenced in my suspicion list earlier is p much gone now

Brainy had been giving me similar vibes to Supermarina, but did not have enough substantial behavior or evidence to warrant including him in my list. tbh I haven't been analyzing or thinking too hard about the new accusations against him specifically, I'm gonna do that later today and come back to it.

Raeko showed up and explained herself nicely, and seems to be more into the game now. Like I mentioned in my previous list, I never really got why she got slammed so hard. There's definitely a lot of other inactive players and I was surprised to see her almost lynched over one small comment Night 1.

Despite being called out multiple times and almost lynched for it, THC is seemingly still contributing in only small amounts and mostly regurgitating information from other players, though he is posting more now. I'm not sure yet if this seemingly indifferent behavior is an overloaded human move or a bold wolf one.

If Mael doesn't come in next day phase I am absolutely going to vote for Thicc, for reasons I said before. Though I'm not a huge fan of the sneakiness and working outside of the game, the info on Mael was still largely important and swayed me away from seeing use in a Thicc lynch today. But tomorrow?? watch out. maybe.

Also, posting and analyzing chat logs is v helpful, ty to everyone doing that. I try to check in on discord and skim the chats but not knowing the chat's atmosphere while the discussions were going on or like the speed of discussion etc always makes using it to make claims seem a little less legitimate to me. That said, it would probably benefit everyone (not just me!!) if short posts were made after important discussions were had in the chat, even if its just a log, so that it can all be centralized and pieced together more effectively



To anyone thinking I'm wishy washy or nonaggressive, idk what to tell you. That's literally just my personality  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯  someones gotta be devil's advocate and try and understand others' perspectives, and I'm PRO at coming up with excuses for people (wish there was an eyeroll emoji)

...That said, I'm on a sort of confrontational kick lately so I'm gonna put my vote on Dudeman. I didn't find his explanation for his davy vote satisfying enough to explain it away. The fact that the davy vote switched so quickly and so close to the end of the phase (~15 min from the deadline iirc) is very suspicious. Like I mentioned above, having talks in discord is useful but kind of detaches me from the context of everything, so you can see how from my perspective the sudden flood of davy votes is a big red flag.

Additionally, this is probably one of the last few phases where we could comfortably lynch for learning purposes (I'm not great with the whole TWG math with counting phases and remaining players but I'm sure someone is, please correct me if I'm wrong), and as said many times before Dudeman would give us a hint about raeko and I'm sure other players as well once we look back with hindsight. Roleflips allow foil-lynchings like these to be actually useful, and I think its worth it to use that strategy while we still can. Don't get me wrong, I'm suspicious of Dudeman in general, and without roleflips I would still be voting for him. The value in that extra info is just a nice cherry on top

[BlackDragonSlayer]

THC because whatchu doing fam i mean wolf

[MaestroUGC]

I was going to vote for you last night, but I was sick and ended up falling asleep before I could. I was actually a bit frustrated when I saw Olimar voted for you cause I realized people would think I was bandwagoning.

What kind of reasoning is this? If you're suspicious enough of someone to vote for them then do it and explain it as best you can. This just makes it seem like you're not wanting to draw attention to yourself in retrospect, but in doing so you're not only highlighting your actions in the previous phase but also making it seem like you're just trying to duck the spotlight.

Having said that, I'll place my vote for THC, as while I still think Raeko is a route worth pursuing, THC has been dodging accusations all game so far. I'm also placing this vote now because I'm not sure if I'll be around to later to see new developments by the time the phase ends.

I'm also looking at the voting patterns of everybody thus far. Dudeman did switch his vote to Davy mere minutes before the end of Day 1, sparing Raeko.
E. Gadd has been otherwise preoccupied(?) and only voted for himself because he was indecisive on Day 1. He's clearly been keeping up but has not actually contributed anything substantial.
Bubbles I'm a bit wary of, not for any concrete reasons, just a feeling.

This post is a bit scattered, but it's more to do with how this game is just all over the place right now.

[Dudeman]

Just posting to say that I won't have any time to post or be on Discord today until after I̧̔͑͊ͣ̈ͬͯ̋̒̇̐҉̴̢̠͇̯͈͙̞͖͍̠̲̺͕̠̠̣ͅ'̸̳̖̪͚͕̬̮͎͔̭̣̫̦̰̥̩̻͔̾̃ͦ̐͊̇ͧͬ̏ͦ̅̇ͭ̀̀͘m̵̹̙͇̹͉͍͌̑̑ͤ͊̀̄̽͗̂̈́̔ͮ͐͢͜͞ͅ d̶̨̪͉̠̺̬̯̠̲̣̍̎ͮͬ̎͑̍ͩͣ͋͑̅ͫ̑͜͢ͅeͭ̀̒̀̄͛͐ͯ̔ͥ͏̘̰͇̠͚̱̠̫̳̹̳͍̬a̡̡̛̤͙̮̘͖̭͓͙̯̝̖̋̉ͬ̇͆d̨̝̩̬̣̦̤̞̱̝̿ͥ͋ͨ͂͆͂͌̓͌ͤ̽͌̅ͣͮ̚͜ ǎ̢̟̪̖̝̩̣̘̼͇̟̩̦͐ͦ̽͊́̅́ͫͭ̽̽́̏͟͞ͅn̾̌̎ͧ̒̃ͤ́̚͏̡̪͈̺͍̙̞̻͈̙̫́͞d̲͍̭̬͙̈́̃̏ͨ̽̂̌̌͞͞͞ the phase ends. I also have heavy suspicions on B̞̟̭͓͎̆̾̀̅ͯ̕͜r̸̰̥̙̺̤̾̑̔͗̎̈͋̒̈́͢͠a̵̡̜̭̮̺̞̖̻̖̼̳̬ͮͩ̿̃ͦ̌̇̑ͧ͒ͭ̾̈́͟͞ͅĩ̴̳̗̰̞͖͓̙̩̖̘̙ͨ̈̄ͬ̈́ͩͤ̀̑̆̆ͧ̓̋̿̂̑̚̕n̵̸̢̯̭̟̫͔̦̞̮̹ͩ̐̀̓͘yͬ̄̿ͩ͗̑͂ͯ͗̏̀ͮ͂͂͐ͯ͛ͧ̆͏҉͕͈̙̺͓̜̳̻̘ͅ which have only been encouraged by his latest few posts, but I will keep my vote on THC. Probably should have done that earlier...

[mastersuperfan]

Tbh after yesterday I'm kind of hesitant to put a vote on anyone anymore, but I'm going to follow through with my earlier post and vote for Brainy. I totally understand all the suspicion for THC but I kind of get the impression that he always just plays that badly? (not that I would know for sure though, I've only played a couple TWGs; it's more of just a gut feel really) If it came down to it I would be fine with letting a THC lynch play out today, but I think Brainy should be more of a priority. For everyone who's been calling THC out for seeming wolfy and not adding anything new to the conversation, I don't see why the exact same reason, coupled with his rather poor explanation for voting davy, shouldn't cause us to consider Brainy as an option today instead. The hasty triple post earlier also kinda seems like a hasty wolf defense that doesn't really do a good job justifying himself, especially the first post which doesn't really contribute anything at all:

I mean I can understand everything else but the log post? Seriously?

A huge thing too is that we get information about (a) raeko, since Brainy changed his vote last minute to davy, and (b) THC, since, as Brainy himself pointed out, THC jumped on him pretty suddenly after Olimar's vote even though he was only "low on his suspicion list." If we lynch Brainy and he flips human, then THC is an easy next lynch. If Brainy flips red then that should give us a reason to look more closely at raeko instead. THC's flip doesn't really tell us much about Dudeman/raeko.

[FireArrow]

My case against dudeman that everyone probably already knows:

Braniy, MSF, and Dudeman all switched their votes last minute to save davy. This is the post that was off.

I'm swapping my vote to davy for reasons I discussed in Discord. In short, a dead human davy who we can revive is more valuable than a dead human raeko who we can revive. Also davy's more of a question mark to me than THC.

He's not implying that there are other, more important reason for switching to davy. This implied that the revive is the straw that broke the camels back.  Note, that I posted rather quickly about why this reasoning was terrible, but none of the three people heeding me until the next phase when they had to defend their action.


note: phase ended 5:00 my time

Gerik - Last Sunday at 5:19 PM
   I'm suspicous because your reason of him being a better revive target is bs and you know it lol

Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:19 PM
    All right fine, it's a crappy reason, but I wasn't lynching him so that he would be revived
    Reviving's just part of the lynching discussion
    I voted davy 'cause I was getting a wolf read from davy
   And raeko and davy were the top contenders for lynching
   and between the two, I'd rather learn davy

After the fact it took next to 0 effort for me to get him to admit that reasoning was faulty. If it was that fragile, why was it used to justify his post in the first place? Why wasn't he convinced changing his vote wasn't a good idea before the phase ended when I posted my actual reasoning, not "lol you know it's bs." Wanting to change your vote in a lynch because you think one lynch candidate is better than other is not a wolfy behavior by itself. Doing so while weakly justifying it in a way that doesn't directly involve you associating yourself with said player, extremely wolfy. Instead of providing us with his "real reason", which he provides in his defense shortly after, he feels the need to provide more "made up" reasoning because:

Gerik - Last Sunday at 5:21 PM
    you pulled a reason out of your asss
    If you were human you would of just said "I prefer davy over raeko"
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:22 PM
   
    Isn't it wolfy to make a decision without presenting a reason?

So it would make you wolfy to post without a reason? Sounds like the way a wolf would think. Also, apperantly you weren't lacking in solid reasons to post anyways:

Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:24 PM
    "Guts" would be the reason
Gerik - Last Sunday at 5:24 PM
    So then you lied about your reason?
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:24 PM
    I wasn't voting davy 'cause of "guts," it was because I didn't like his aggressive "it couldn't be activity" stance
   That was always why I sus'd him
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:25 PM
   Then THC posted some more, more discussion happened, raeko became a solid lynch candidate
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:25 PM
   The situation changed, discussion happened in here, it was clear THC wouldn't get lynched

He said it was guts, then said it wasn't guts. Then proceeded to post why he "actually" switched his vote. Why did he decided he needed to post that dumb thing about revives instead of this? My guess is this reasoning wasn't actually why he switched votes. It absolutely is continuous with his posts, but wolves don't make decisions based on who they think is sus. He needed to get davy lynched last minute and quickly threw in a reason, then ammended it after the fact by going back and putting it in line with his other thoughts.

Gerik - Last Sunday at 5:25 PM
    Dudeman, the reason your posting now is not a bad reason
    It's the fact that you decided to post your whole revive thing instead
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 5:26 PM
    Well the revive was the topic at hand
    I wanted to throw in my two cents and thus sloppily merged my lynch discussion into the revive discussion

MSF was the origin of the weird reviving thing. Dudeman saw it, and in the heat of the moment quickly used it instead of the rather solid logic he built up over the course of the phase. Humans tend not to forget their reasons and generally love shoving their opinions into the situations. Wolves can easily forget what their suspicouns and reasonings are because, well, they were never real. He didn't want to take the time to consolidate his logic into switching his votes in the last 15 minutes of the thread, which too me sounds wolfy because humans almost always have their logic consolidated, and if they don't they love to let you know (I'm starting to feel wrong about my call out of E Gadd. because looking through the thread there's a huge amount "don't really know whats going on so not gonna vote/safety/whatever." "Gonna get my thoughts sorted out hear from me tomorrow.")

And then there was this:
For her, yes[/b]; the thing is, in order to make that sort of partnership connection, there has to be, y'know, a partnership
   You're okay with a raeko lynch because it'll supposedly indicate my allegiance
   I don't see how if all I ever did was aim for davy instead of THC
   and raeko never said anything
   Just bugs me that my decision to swap apparently means I was defending raeko]Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 6:14 PM
   One last thing @Gerik about the raeko/davy thing against me
   I don't see how pushing for davy makes me any closer to raeko, other than the fact that raeko happened to be the other highest lynch vote
   I never outright defended raeko
   Raeko was on my first sus list for the "way too early to be talking about this imo" post
   The one thing you're holding on to is my "reasoning" for switching to davy, but as said before, I didn't switch to davy for the revive thing
   Again, it was the discussion at hand here in Discord and it leaked into the forum post
Gerik - Last Sunday at 6:17 PM
   I already said Im ok with lynching raeko instead of you, why do you feel the need to distance yourself from her rn?
   Are you already anticipating a red flip?
Ducleman🐺🚫 - Last Sunday at 6:19 PM
  For her, yes; the thing is, in order to make that sort of partnership connection, there has to be, y'know, a partnership
   You're okay with a raeko lynch because it'll supposedly indicate my allegiance
   I don't see how if all I ever did was aim for davy instead of THC
   and raeko never said anything
   Just bugs me that my decision to swap apparently means I was defending raeko

So he randomly really wants to destroy any kind of partnership between him and raeko. Which I thought was really odd this early, especially because he has yet to mention any suspicoun of her whatsoever. If he was really human, and thought she was likely to be human, wouldn't he put his efforts into trying to say why THC (or whoever he thinks is a wolf) is more sus than raeko, not trying to distance himself from someone who from his perspective should probably flip green. Basically, his vote switch realllllly points to him thinking she's green. He then, in the part I bolded, says that he does think raeko will flip red. Let me put this in a seperate line because holy crap:

If you think someone is gonna flip as a wolf, that means you think they're a wolf. If you think they're a wolf, why the fuck did you save her from a lynch, and then proceed to distance yourself from her and still show no interest in actually lynching her.