TWG 100th Anniversary: Dinner and a Show

[Olimar12345]

Davy, I have said this already but I will say it again. I believe that statistically, it was more likely that inactivity was the cause of no wolfing because of not only the many factors that I have listed in my previous posts, but also the history of inactivity here on nsm. We still have at least one player that has yet to make a single post in the thread and many others that are still slowly coming to life. Just because I think that was more likely what happened doesn't mean I don't think we should be planning for the worst case scenario, where the wolves do in fact hit Monika. There is a difference here.

Not sure why this makes me look wolfy to you, since everyone is already planning for the worst case scenario. If anything, it looks weird for someone like you to put a vote on me for something that should have been this obvious to you, and if it wasn't let this post help clear that up.

[Monika]

Votecount:
Raeko- (BlackDragonSlayer, ) 1
ThiccWifeSiccLife- (Bubbles, ) 1
BlackDragonSlayer- (TheZeldaPianist, ) 1
Olimar12345- (davy, ) 1
ThatHiddenCharacter- (Dudeman, ) 1

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Phase is ending in a couple hours, no?

[Olimar12345]

I'm getting wolf vibes from this post. If this post is not a natural overreaction from THC, I can only assume he's trying to be really worried for the human cause in order to seem human.

I'm having déjà vu:

Woah okay first of all, we should always consider and plan according to the worst case scenario, which would be that they hit Monika. Second of all, if they team up it just means that there's one more player on the wolf side, which while this does make the game harder for the humans, it by no means is a game over. Thirdly, this like many of your posts is a generic cookie-cutter, fake, human-sounding post that is overly-obvious and adds nothing to the game. I've got my eye on you.

[Monika]

Roughly 3 hours until phase change.

[FireArrow]

For people thinking that my analysis of raeko is odd, I personally believe that any time someone is directly asked if their a wolf the reaction is worth measuring. The fact that it was such a light hearted obvious joke is why the change in syntax was off to me.

Summation of some points I think are valid:

1. Monika is probably an active or expirienced TWG player.
2. Wolves probably hit Monika. I don't think inactivity is as off the table as davy says, but it's still definitly the less likely option.

Counterclaiming Khajiit or Seer is very dangerous. If you counterclaim Khajiit, you have to proof that you can send your items to specific players, which is quite hard to do. Counterclaiming seer means that if a seer target's roleflip does not matched the color you've seerd them in, your cover will be blown. If a wolf and the traitor both fake claim a role, there is a decent chance that they counterclaim eachother, meaning that there still will be two special roles that can communicate with each other. If multiple wolves fake claim, than we can just reveal the fake claims and lynch from their, seeing as the Brutal Human will take care of a 3rd wolf meaning that we'd only have to lynch one more wolf in order to win the game. That being sad, the high chance of fake claims does put a dent in the early alliance plan.

The issue isn't that fake claims are difficult to spot, it's that the needy wolf could pass the info onto the wolves or the traitor could reveal to the thread. Both Kahjit and the seer are then wolfed in exchange for us lynching the counter claims. We lose our strongest roles while wolves lose nonfunctional roles.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Hmm... I did miss a lot of discussion. Well, at this point, I don't really have time to make a huge post and put a lot of thought into who is likely a wolf before the phase ends (due to life restraints), so I'm going to vote for ThiccWifeSiccLife just because of a general lack of anything from him. I'm seeing a few other people as wolfy, but none of them enough over the others to make a definitive choice between them.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

THC, not only for previous wolfy behavior, but also piling on top of a safety on an inactive (tut, tut) who could most likely be replaced.

[Monika]

Votecount:
Raeko- (BlackDragonSlayer, ) 1
ThiccWifeSiccLife- (Bubbles, ThatHiddenCharacter, ) 2
BlackDragonSlayer- (TheZeldaPianist, ) 1
Olimar12345- (davy, ) 1
ThatHiddenCharacter- (Dudeman, BlackDragonSlayer, ) 2

[Olimar12345]

While I agree that THC looks wolfy, I can chalk that up to inexperience (at least until something more substantial happens with him). What scares me more is how Davy's been as of late. He's miss-construed my night 1 analysis so far as to vote for me, then almost immediately makes the same response to THC's post that I made (about THC looking wolfy from his cookie-cutter response). Sloppy Davy playing for day 1 if you ask me. I most likely won't be able to pop in after this since I have band rehearsal, so gl everybody.

[FireArrow]

I'm really not feeling THC

THC, not only for previous wolfy behavior, but also piling on top of a safety on an inactive (tut, tut) who could most likely be replaced.

I just feel like he is such a low hanging fruit that he can't be a wolf. Look at this interaction:

Spoiler

THC 🐺🚫 - Today at 2:00 PM
   Oh, I've been gone all day @Dudeman🐺🚫. I'll go read through the thread to get caught up now.
Gerik - Today at 2:00 PM
   thc are you a wolf?
Dudeman🐺🚫 - Today at 2:00 PM
   clearly he's not, look at his nickname
Gerik - Today at 2:01 PM
   oh yeah my bad
THC 🐺🚫 - Today at 2:05 PM
   Reading through everything, yeah you have good points. My posts really haven't been very helpful. I keep trying to add something new to the table, but it ends up just being a rephrase   
   or obvious statement.
Dudeman🐺🚫 - Today at 2:05 PM
   Yup
THC 🐺🚫 - Today at 2:06 PM
   I haven't really had the time to make a well thought-out post in the past few days, but I should soon.

[close]

Do you really believe that he's a bad enough player to act so obscenely suspicous as a wolf but a good enough player to know not to stay completely chill when outright being accused by most of the thread? I just don't see it.

[Olimar12345]

Also Noc: I see two BDS votes up here, hmm...

[FireArrow]

a good enough player to know to stay completely chill

ftfm

[TheZeldaPianist275]

FireArrow's explanation makes sense.  I don't think that's terribly suspicious at all.

I voted BDS earlier because he was the player who I remembered being most vocally against an alliance (although in retrospect, Dudeman was up there as well).  I wanted to gauge his reaction while withholding judgment on whether he would be my final vote.  That said, I'm changing to Olimar for ducking Davy's accusation of him earlier.  Davy suggested that Olimar was reiterating the probability that the wolfing was accidentally missed due to inactivity with the intention of driving the conversation away from Monika, which Olimar did not directly respond to (instead saying something along the lines of "but I really believe it").  There was no misconstruing there--Davy simply pointed out a trend in his posts.  I'd say THC should definitely be considered too, though.

[Monika]

Votecount:
davy- (Olimar12345, ) 1
ThiccWifeSiccLife- (Bubbles, ThatHiddenCharacter, ) 2
Olimar12345- (davy, TheZeldaPianist, ) 1
ThatHiddenCharacter- (Dudeman, BlackDragonSlayer, ) 2