TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

[FireArrow]

Right, I knew BDS was a wolf. Olimar is also human, because they wouldn't reveal the second wolf if there was a high chance of the first being lynched.

TZP

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Oooor you just put me in the bag to justify your own "suspicions."

FireArrow.

[FireArrow]

Oh my bad, I totally put a nonconfirmed human in the bag so I could push for a fucking TZP lynch instead of a much easier Olimar or BDS one. I also completely forgot that I would of put myself in a situation where there's a 50% chance of me or my partner getting lynched by chance despite literally talking about that a couple hours ago.

You're obviously a wolf and we can't lynch you. There's literally nothing to gain from responding to you any further so it's a complete waste of time trying to defend yourself.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Oh my bad, I totally put a nonconfirmed human in the bag so I could push for a fucking TZP lynch instead of a much easier Olimar or BDS one. I also completely forgot that I would of put myself in a situation where there's a 50% chance of me or my partner getting lynched by chance despite literally talking about that a couple hours ago.

You're obviously a wolf and we can't lynch you. There's literally nothing to gain from responding to you any further so it's a complete waste of time trying to defend yourself.

See, you're doing it again. Putting me in the bag would "obviously" justify your own conclusions, which means people have no reason not to follow you like sheep, since that's exactly what they did last phase (for all intents and purposes, you could probably do whatever you wanted at this point, TBH). Considering you voted for TZP right off the bat, you sure as hell are controlling the lynch. Tell me, FireArrow, why are you human? You've been acting extremely overconfidently this whole time (as well as being very pick-and-choose-y), which as I recall is exactly how you've played as a wolf in the past (and, as davy and Olimar would probably attest to, even a shift from how you played toward the beginning of the game).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Yeah, that's one thing I learned this game. Manipulate people not with logic, but with emotions and first impressions.

Case in point.

[Olimar12345]

I was going to make a huge post but fuck it, what else needs to be said? FireArrow is a wolf. Easy as that. He pushed for a Nocturne lynch and converted the tail end of it into an Egadd lynch while not changing his vote, setting up the third day's mis-lynch. He's quick to jump right on top of someone with a "It can't be anyone else but this, and if you disagree or don't immediately agree you are super suspicious and must be a wolf" Last phase he "read" my cautious "let's see what happens" as changing the subject, thus = they must be my wolf partner. He sets up the day phases with posts about the "only possible wolf partner combinations" that always conveniently do not include him.

[Olimar12345]

double post, will be in the discord chat.

[FireArrow]

Please don't be dumb olimar.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Please don't be dumb olimar.

Yeah, everyone else is too busy doing that for us.

[FireArrow]

Everyone post who you voted to bag last night. People forgetting to vote and/or not voting for daj are extremely relevant right now.

I voted both daj and mael.

[FireArrow]

Why I chose TZP over Dude.

Oh my gosh, what.  This is getting ridiculous.  I feel like now it's almost certain that Olimar is a wolf.

Idk about the second person yet but e gadd fo sho

Which, let me note, I've been saying since day 1.

Here are their reactions to me when I said I wanted to lynch BDS next. Both of them are taking BDS's side to an extent, TZP just a bit more. Since BDS was bagged, the wolves probably saw how the last 2 lynches were started by me and was afraid I'd still have ability to start the third. Since Olimar was a shoe in for todays lynch at the time, they probably thought bagging him would mean olimar gets lynched for an easy victory. They didn't account for the fact that doing so confirms olimars humanity nor that he ended up being lillie.

The wolves put us in a situation where we have to guess the partner or lose. TZP was the person with the least amount of suspicion surronding him, therefore this plan was probably perceived as low risk. Why would everyone randomly decide that TZP was more suspicous than dude, me, and olimar? On the other side of the coin, it could also be said that it would be really easy for TZP to win as a sole wolf so why bother going through the effort of revealing BDS? Maybe they wanted a perfect game, wanted to win the game faster, or just saw this as the better option. I don't know, this part the argument swings both ways.

Also remember that the wolves were only able to do this out of inactivity. They didn't have enough votes to overturn it by themselves, so that means someone forgot to vote (or was dumb and listened to maelstrom.) TZP was in the discussion so I find it unlikely he forgot to vote, dude on the other hand... Basically dude being inactive that phase gives him human points, but I wanna figure out how exactly everyone voted so I don't have to use this as a "well it's more likely."

Also, TZP suggested that we do a random votes which was a bad idea for this exact reason.

Also there's this:

Oooor you just put me in the bag to justify your own "suspicions."

FireArrow.

BDS isn't dumb (or maybe he is, I've messed up enough this game by assuming people are rational), he should know that this plan reveals him as a wolf. Why would he go so beserk trying to lynch me after I voted for TZP. He reacted to the TZP vote as if it were one for himself. I feel if say, I went for Dude instead, he wouldn't of put so much effort forward in trying to push for my lynch. It's also possible he's doing a fake reaction or just arguing with anyone that call him a wolf.

TZP - Today at 5:08 PM
BDS pls stop defending me you're making me look bad

BlackDragonSlayer - Today at 5:08 PM
Anything I can do to convince you to vote for FireArrow.

Sometimes I'm really bad at putting things into words but I'll try because this is really wolfy.
1. BDS hasn't been defending TZP, he's just throwing dirt at the person who called him a wolf. Why would human TZP assume that BDS is defending him? Why does BDS respond as if he has been?
2. BDS has no reaction to the fact that TZP knows he's a wolf. If TZP was another human would BDS react more negatively given how he reacted to me?
3. Given the two above, this mostly looks like TZP trying to distance himself from BDS. Wolves don't publically call each other out on things like this when they can just talk privately, so saying it would generally make it look like they weren't partners. This would actually used in a case against dude if it was used in a situation that made a bit more sense.

As for Dude, there isn't much of a case against him other than "he's inactive and being suspicious", which is literally always true. I'm going to read over the thread now though and see if there's anything that tie either of them to BDS.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS isn't dumb (or maybe he is, I've messed up enough this game by assuming people are rational), he should know that this plan reveals him as a wolf. Why would he go so beserk trying to lynch me after I voted for TZP. He reacted to the TZP vote as if it were one for himself. I feel if say, I went for Dude instead, he wouldn't of put so much effort forward in trying to push for my lynch. It's also possible he's doing a fake reaction or just arguing with anyone that call him a wolf.

I don't know why you're assuming I wasn't already going to vote for you. You literally posted less than a minute after I made my first post of the phase.

1. BDS hasn't been defending TZP, he's just throwing dirt at the person who called him a wolf. Why would human TZP assume that BDS is defending him? Why does BDS respond as if he has been?

In that specific instance, I did defend TZP: you claimed he was the only one who supported the random voting plan, which I pointed out was untrue. Context is important:

TZP - Today at 5:04 PM
I also have no idea why you went right for my throat after the phase change

...

Gerik - Today at 5:04 PM
Basically you were more defensive of BDS when I expressed interest in lynching him
and you were also the one who tried to get us to do a random vote
which could suggest you were thinking about trying to bag a wolf before hand

...

BlackDragonSlayer - Today at 5:08 PM
I thought Olimar and Maelstrom also supported the random vote thing?

...

TZP - Today at 5:08 PM
BDS pls stop defending me you're making me look bad

2. BDS has no reaction to the fact that TZP knows he's a wolf. If TZP was another human would BDS react more negatively given how he reacted to me?

Everyone's already parroting you except Olimar and I, or at the very least, having some sort of absurd avoidance of suspicion on you. You're the only one singling TZP out, IMO.

[daj]

ahh dang sorry guys i missed the vote fuck army seriously

That said, um...I guess I'll wait out for a bit? :p Reading the above posts doesn't actually help reach any conclusion so I'll wait for some logic to emerge out of the salt haha

[Dude]

Everyone post who you voted to bag last night. People forgetting to vote and/or not voting for daj are extremely relevant right now.

I voted both daj and mael.

for once i actually sent mine in and it was the same.

[FireArrow]

for once i actually sent mine in and it was the same.

This makes you look pretty human. An argument in your favor was that your inactivity as a human might of been the reason why the wolves were able to outvote us. I don't see why you'd give that up as a wolf.