TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

[Dude]

But who are olimars viable partners now? Not you, since you just said this. Not dude, they've been at it all game. Not me, for obvious reasons.

BDS is pretty much the only one he could be partnered with and therefore the better lynch. Dude + BDS and you + BDS are both very possible as well, so unless you really think that Olimar + Me, dude, or you is actually worth looking into lynching BDS is strictly better.

so where is tzp in all of this

[FireArrow]

so where is tzp in all of this

you + BDS = TZP + BDS.

TZP + Dude something I'm completely ignoring for better or worse. TZP + Olimar isn't too likely, given he's TZP's prefered lynch for what is possibly our last chance to get a wolf. TZP + Me is possible I guess, but why would I bring that up when talking to him?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Wait, so did everyone vote Daj?

The bag has two spots still, so there's no way the wolves would be able to force Mael out.  I think the safest thing to do is for each person to choose one of those two to bag randomly, as we've been doing.  Don't all just vote for Daj.

so where is tzp in all of this

What do you mean?

[FireArrow]

Wait, so did everyone vote Daj?

The bag has two spots still, so there's no way the wolves would be able to force Mael out.  I think the safest thing to do is for each person to choose one of those two to bag randomly, as we've been doing.  Don't all just vote for Daj.

The wolves have more votes now so the odds come out to about:

11% of getting the wolves to fail, 89% chance they kill a confirmed human of their choice, 65% success rate of them completely chosing who the second person to be bagged is.

There's 4 possible lynch targets tomorrow and 2 wolves , so voting at random gives us a 50% chance to get a wolf. If the wolves succeed in bagging themselves, then there's only 3 lynch targets with one wolf, giving us only a 33% chance to lynch one.

[Dudeman]

Heads up: Phase change is gonna be a little late. Send in your Bagging votes if you haven't already.

[FireArrow]

The last sentence should be 2/5 = 40% and 1/4 = 25%, but the point still stands.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

FA, can you explain the number breakdown?  I don't follow.

[Olimar12345]

6 > 4

8 players are remaining
2 wolves - collectively 4 votes (stackable)
6 humans - two votes each. 12 votes total

There are two bag spots and executor is dead

1) all humans should vote for mael, because 6 votes > 4 votes

2) all humans should also vote for daj (another human), because 6 votes > 4 votes

3) rip egadd

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Oh, I see.  Yeah, disregard what I said earlier.  Save Daj, we don't want the wolves bagging themselves.

[FireArrow]

FA, can you explain the number breakdown?  I don't follow.

Note: For the calculations I pretended a kitb would always favor humans, so things are actually a bit more grime.

First part: Let's say the wolves are wolfing confirmed human x so they put their 4 collective votes on confirmed y. In order for humans to stop them, we would have to get 5 or more votes to randomly occur on the player that's getting wolfed. Using binomial probability it comes out to only an 11% chance of success in our favor.

Second part: The wolves could take an even greater risk, trying to vote themselves into the bag. We'd have to get 4 or more votes to randomly occur on a player, which once again using binomial probability, there's a 35% chance of that happening (or a 65% chance of the wolves succeeding.)

Third part: I think that's pretty clear.

ninja'd

[FireArrow]

also grime and grim are totally the same thing

[Olimar12345]

My simple post saying uselessly obvious things ftw

[Dudeman]

TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

Game starts on a Day phase. Each Day phase, every player votes for a player to send to Looker for screening. If that player is a bad guy, Looker puts them in the Ultra Wormhole FOREVER (they ded). Otherwise, the player is sent back and nothing happens. At Night, the Bad Guys can try to capture (wolf) one player. At the same time, each player will vote via PM for two players to put in the Bag. Players put in the Bag will not be wolfed at the end of the Night phase, and will be publicly announced at the beginning of the next Day phase. Bagged players also cannot be sent for screening. Wolves start out with 0 Bagging votes, but will gain two votes collectively for each Human they capture. If they capture Lillie, the Bag will only have one open spot on the next Night Phase (this cannot occur two Night Phases in a row; capturing Lillie twice in a row will do nothing). Bagged Pokemon exit the Bag at the start of the next Night phase.

Bad Guys (Wolves):
Wolves know each other.
1. Lusamine: Has memory problems and can't remember who Lillie is. She's a President-type human so her screening votes can count for two, but only if she PM's the host stating so each Day phase.
2. Ya Boi Guzma: Every Night phase, he can get Team Skull to check what Pokémon a player is. They're not that smart, so all they can get is the color.

Pokémon:
3. Exeggutor: Its neck is so long that it takes up an extra spot in the Bag and the other Pokémon is forced out (at random, if the Bag has three spots). The first time this occurs, the other Pokémon becomes so confused that it cannot be captured that phase.
4. Metapod: Metapod's just here to make the game harder.
5. Toucannon: Angry. Very angry. Angery reacts only.
6. Nebby: Pokémon lose if Nebby is captured.
7. Mimikyu: Mimikyu creates a realm of spoopy scary shadows inside the Bag that it hides the other Pokémon in (chosen at random, if the Bag has an extra spot). This lets the Bag keep both spots if Lillie is captured, but spoops the Pokémon so bad that they refuse to go in the Bag for the rest of the game. Unless it's Nebby, 'cause then the game would break.
8. Dugtrio: HEYYEYAAEYAAAEYAEYAA
9. Popplio: The starter nobody wanted. Capturing Popplio causes Lillie to have an extra spot in her Bag the next Night phase.

Lillie:
10. Lillie: Is told who Nebby is. She's a super important character with plot relevance so she's told how many of each color of player are left at the end of each Night phase.

Things that will be announced in the thread:
1. Popplio decided to go back to the "Pending Designs" pile where it belongs. An extra spot opened in the Bag! (Day after Popplio's capture)
2. [player] hid in the Bag's shadows and refuses to GET BACK IN THE FUCKING BAG! (Day after Mimikyu is Bagged)
3. Exeggutor's neck defies explanation! It forced a Pokémon out of the Bag! (Day after Exeggutor is Bagged)

Wolves win when Nebby is captured.
Humans win when both Wolves die.
Nebby wins if it never gets put in the Bag.


Everybody loses if somebody forgets to capitalize the words Bag, Bagging, Bagged, etc.

1. davy
2. NocturneOfShadow
3. Maelstrom
4. BlackDragonSlayer
5. TheZeldaPianist275
6. dajwxp
7. Olimar12345
8. Dude
9. FireArrow
10. E. Gadd Industries


BlackDragonSlayer and Maelstrom were stuffed in the Bag. They cannot be sent for screening today.
E. Gadd Industries was captured by the bad guys, oh no!

It is now Day 4. Day 4 will end in 48 hours, or approximately 1 PM PST on 1/6/17.

[E. Gadd Industries]

Death post:

Am ded. Not big surprise.
Good luck, all, and Merry Christmas!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Um, ok, I guess.