TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

[E. Gadd Industries]

So each wolf gets two votes now?
...things are really getting down to the wire o_O

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Noc getting being the wolves choice gives us some insight I think. I think TZP and Olimar respect Daj as a player more, so if he was the wolf he'd probably want to target him. On the other hand, I think E gadd, Dude, and maybe BDS would be more afraid of noc, and therefore would want him wolfed. This isn't really much go on by itself, and there's always the possibility that the wolf team is a mix of the two.

That's incredibly arbitrary.

Right now I'm leaning Dude, BDS, and E gadd not so much because of that, but because they're also the only three players thus far that don't seem to be putting much efford forward in actually finding a wolf.

That's also incredibly arbitrary.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

^^^

Building off this point: Wasn't I one of the first people to call out both daj and Noc (I read over the game again because I remembered this, and as far as I can tell, it seems to be true)? Even if they weren't wolves (and if you're gong to put points against me for that, that's equal parts ridiculous and unhelpful), you'd have to be incredibly specific and/or in intentional denial to say I'm not trying to find wolves.

Please, explain yourself further.

[FireArrow]

I was going to make a big post about it but I think everyone understands why. E Gadd

1. His behavior is incredibly wolfy.
2. He's viable wolf partners with a lot of people (namely, olimar and BDS.)
3. My post about him at the end of last day phase.
4. I'm seeing the most likely wolf teams as E Gadd + Olimar or E Gadd + BDS, both of which contain E Gadd.
5. If the wolf team is BDS + Dude we're screwed.

Please, explain yourself further.

It looks like you're playing on autopilot. Also I'm not sure what you mean by arbitrary. They're things worth thinking about.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

It looks like you're playing on autopilot. Also I'm not sure what you mean by arbitrary. They're things worth thinking about.

That's a completely arbitrary opinion, though, without really any facts to back it up. And now, you look like you're backpedaling after I called you out (i.e. sniffing out the easier target and thus, going for E. Gadd, whom you know people will support).

[FireArrow]

That's a completely arbitrary opinion, though, without really any facts to back it up. And now, you look like you're backpedaling after I called you out (i.e. sniffing out the easier target and thus, going for E. Gadd, whom you know people will support).

Or I've been more suspicous of E Gadd than you throughout the entire game? I could support it with facts, quoting posts and all that jazz, but I'm not going to because I don't intend to lynch you today. Nonetheless I still said my opinion so other people can read it, think it about it, and see if they agree. Do you feel threatened by it? I find it odd that you only showed up to defend yourself from one of my not very important posts although apperantly everything else happening isn't worth your commentary?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Or I've been more suspicous of E Gadd than you throughout the entire game? I could support it with facts, quoting posts and all that jazz, but I'm not going to because I don't intend to lynch you today. Nonetheless I still said my opinion so other people can read it, think it about it, and see if they agree. Do you feel threatened by it? I find it odd that you only showed up to defend yourself from one of my not very important posts although apperantly everything else happening isn't worth your commentary?

You're acting hella suspicious right now. I'm concerned in particular because you just seem to be looking for whomever is the easier target and bringing up questionable points just to support your own suspicions. Before today, I would have voted for E. Gadd, but I'm starting to change my mind now.

[FireArrow]

There's a reason E Gadd is an easy target and that reason is why I'm voting for him. I do like how you're adding new thought to the thread now though, even if the motivatation was me calling you out. We didn't hear enough from you before.

[Olimar12345]

I could support it with facts, quoting posts and all that jazz, but I'm not going to because I don't intend to lynch you today.

This sentence stood out as odd to me. You've been hard-pressed on Egadd the last few days, which I understood initially, but to say that you don't "intend" to lynch someone like bds today sounds...weird. Like, I would be perfectly okay with lynching BDS if he slipped up and said something supper suspicious; there wouldn't be a factor of "my intent" involved with it...

Idk that just sounded really bad to me, FA...

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I do like how you're adding new thought to the thread now though, even if the motivatation was me calling you out.

-_-'

[FireArrow]

Before I get into this: Lillie should claim the next day phase. Now...

The case against E Gadd is pretty well known. Logic that makes no sense from a human perspective, being incredibly jumpy, not being overly helpful, behavior that's more in line with a confused wolf than a confused human, etc.

Right now I'm pretty certain the wolves are Olimar + E Gadd, and I'm here to present my case against olimar. I'd rather go for E Gadd to today, since I think I'm more certain of him than Olimar. I was lazy and hoping to do all of this next day phase since I thought we were all on the same page about E Gadd, but I guess not so here I go. Points A and B are things everyone already knows, C and D is where I think it get more interesting.

Exhibit A: When Olimar is a wolf he tends to try and look like he's helping while not actually helping, resulting in a lot of really obvious things that don't really push the conversation anywhere. He also avoids pointing any fingers or actually putting anything into motion.

Spoiler

Okay, so if it isn't already obvious, Lillie should claim to Nebby and start an alliance, since she knows who that is.

 

double post: oh, and sure, lets screen Daj.

Playing devil's advocate, what if they are both just playing their usual selves? Referencing last game again, this is how both of them acted and neither of them were werewolves. I'm starting to take a bit more careful look at who's jumping on their cases...

^The last sentence of this one just really sticks out to me.

So we have a decision to make: are we going to seer/lynch dude/noc, or someone else?
Seering dude/noc pros
-we possibly confirm a human
-we possibly kill a wolf
-we end the suspicion on one of them

Cons
-we waste a lynch/seering on humans that are playing shitty
-suspicion increases on the one we don't check, which could possibly result in another mislynch.

What will we do?

"We need to decide who we're going to lynch. If we lynch noc or dude, we could kill a wolf or confirm them as human. If we're wrong though, then we wasted a lynch. What will we do?"

etc. etc. etc. this is almsot every post in the first 3 phases.

[close]

Counter Point: But he's not doing that now!
Response: Yes, after everyone called him out on it he started playing more agressive, which kind of makes that null and void. Additionally, everyone he's been agressive towards has either been easy targets (noc) or after someone expressed suspicion towards him or E Gadd.

Exhibit B: He's being really jumpy.

Spoiler

Tf? First of all, I'm not a good enough twg-er to know everything by the second day phase (minus an initial night phase). Posting "obvious things" in the manner in which I did was a means to organize pros/cons (notice how there was an imbalance? That should have meant something). Sometimes it helps to have simple things bumped so that we can stay on task. Second of all, I was on the mibbit chat both times that I posted about it (here and here), plus I even created a discord channel for more convenience in chatting (although I have not had a chance to really chat there yet, admittedly).

I'll say it again: Tf?? As aggressive as I can be (I'll agree with that), my response covered all of your "weak" points made at me pretty well, I thought. For your to brush it off as an "oh reaction test hmmm hmm..." seems like a cop-out in addition to looking suspicious. Not to mention, as rightfully concerned with wasting lynches as you have been with noc, you sure did jump to the "well, it's okay to waste a lynch on you if you're a human" card on me (even within the same post). Thats contradicting.

[close]

There's that thing with dude.

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:23 PM
[quoting dude] "olimar is the wolf b/c he voted noc"
that was dumb af
no one else is seeing that too

This was message he sent to me today. He's been complaining all game about dude having a dumb suspicion of him. Let's look at what that was:

Also, egadd and Olimar are my top picks for checking tomorrow

Yeah... that's all I could find in the thread. Maybe there was a chat I missed, but this seems like a really odd thing to get worked up over.

Exhibit C: The nonsensical progression of his thoughts about me. Sometimes wolves mess up the continuity of their suspicions because, ya'know, they're not really suspicions.


You remember when Davy wanted to screen me because I was being uncharacteristically quiet, which was contrary to my previous human game where I was overly active?

FA seems to be playing similarly to the way he was last game, which makes me feel better about his humanity.

Well according to olimar, this inactivity totally similar to the previous game.

9. FireArrow - You are a mystery to me right now. From past games, working both with you and against you, you play very solidly and it makes it hard for me to tell which side you could really be on when we aren't both wolves or on the same team from the start or something.

Olimar12345 - Yesterday at 11:37 PM
Not sure about FA, he's a slippery one.
Though his last post was back and forth

Olimar12345 - Yesterday at 11:42 PM
FA is the next most suspicious person on my list
Then probably dude and a three way tie between the rest

Then I start acting myself again, becoming more active and voting for noc, which apperantly upgrades me from "not suspicous because you're inactive like in that one game you were really active in" to "a really good player that you just can't get a read on." Ok?

From there he just started getting more and more suspicous of me, which I can't say is unreasonable since pretty much everyone but TZP is weary of me at this point.

Exhibit D: From expirience, I know Olimar will defend his wolf partners, so I tested for this.

Spoiler

Gerik - Today at 1:03 PM
What do you think of an E Gadd lynch?

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:12 PM
I wouldn't mind putting pressure on him to see if he says anything crazy
but BDS is making me uneasy rn
isn't he usually more involved?
Idr if I've ever played a game where he was a wolf

Gerik - Today at 1:14 PM
BDS is always shady

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:14 PM
god everyone is starting to look suspicious to some degree...
why do you want an Egadd lynch?

Gerik - Today at 1:15 PM
He has the most evidence against him and the least in his favor
I agree that BDS is a good idea though, there's just less material to work with

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:15 PM
yeah but he wasn't this noobish in the updating twg, where he was actually a wolf
and then there's you

Gerik - Today at 1:16 PM
fair enough
but yesterday you said you were really close to lynching him over noc
what changed that?

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:16 PM
I slept on it
you didn't change your vote to egadd either, you know
you supported a noc lynch

Gerik - Today at 1:17 PM
I know, I was msotly afraid I would change my vote and turn up noc is a wolf
Generally it's better to go with your first instinct
However, I'm still equally suspicous of him as I was yesterday

Olimar12345 - Today at 1:17 PM
both of our first instincts weren't that good

Gerik - Today at 1:18 PM
True

[close]

tl;dr
E Gadd goes from his number one suspicion next to noc to number four or whatever behind me, BDS, and Dude. This is because "he slept on it." Also note how he treated the whole conversation like an interrogation instead of just telling me what he thought of an E Gadd lynch. Every response reeks with trying to defend himself when I wasn't accusing him of anything.

Olimar12345 - Today at 4:23 PM
go post something about Egadd and I'll agree with it so he'll start posting
getting to the point where I don't even care if we lose. I'd rather play something else

Project reaction test is a go, deploy Team OliArrow!

This sentence stood out as odd to me. You've been hard-pressed on Egadd the last few days, which I understood initially, but to say that you don't "intend" to lynch someone like bds today sounds...weird. Like, I would be perfectly okay with lynching BDS if he slipped up and said something supper suspicious; there wouldn't be a factor of "my intent" involved with it...

Idk that just sounded really bad to me, FA...

rip, although the spotlight does look good on me

[FireArrow]

Imo, in order of likelihood: Olimar + E Gadd, BDS + E Gadd, BDS + Dude

I'd like to lynch E Gadd today. If he's a wolf get Olimar or if he's human go for BDS. This covers all the above wolf teams with the two lynches we have left. Don't feel like making a case for BDS right now since it's not really relevant today. If one of ya'll is lillie and my idea starts gaining traction then claim because we don't have time to waste a lynch on lillie now that dudeman changed the rules.

[Dude]

Idk about the second person yet but e gadd fo sho

Which, let me note, I've been saying since day 1.

[daj]

E Gadd

Ahahaha, well done firearrow, sound logic and good arguments there

[Olimar12345]

Good arguments my ass (look, I'm responding in a manner that I always respond: wolf or human!). Half of your quotes of me are taken out of context from different points in the game when my thoughts had changed (that's right, I can change my mind when new circumstances surface), but please arrange them in any order you choose to "prove" your weak suspicions. At this point I will gladly lynch Egadd. Here's to jumping on your bandwaggon like last phase.

But, remember this?

I will still withhold judgement on Egadd until he is more active

Never did I disagree with how shady he was. I even said that I almost changed my vote to him last phase, like you also almost did.

I've seen Egadd play as a wolf (hell, I was even the host of a game where he was a wolf on the winning team) and this doesn't resemble what I saw there. Rereading the chat log I get more of an impression that he's just a n00b at being a human and picking up tells and etc. Post your real argument for the lynch of Egadd and maybe you can convince me that he is a better lynch.

There still is the real possibility that FireArrow and Dude are wolf partners, but I've just about gotten to the point where I don't care anymore.