TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

[FireArrow]

randomly being between noc and daj of course

Agree with E. Gadd, but I'd hesitantly add FireArrow as an alternative to Olimar.

Right now I'm thinking E Gadd and/or TZP. Inactivity is really scaring me right now because noc and e gadd are acting beyond suspicous so in the now more likely case that they're both human the wolves win for free by by letting humans kill themselves.

[Olimar12345]

Sort of. We all vote randomly using random.org and that gives us a 23% chance of causing the wolves to hit no one if they try and wolf a confirmed human. They aren't the most amazing odds, but it's better than the alternative of just leaving either daj or noc to die.

23% chance for the humans, 50% chance for the guessing wolves : /

Right now I'm thinking E Gadd and/or TZP. Inactivity is really scaring me right now because noc and e gadd are acting beyond suspicous so in the now more likely case that they're both human the wolves win for free by by letting humans kill themselves.

noc is confirmed human though, that should just be egadd now.

[mikey]

I don't like this.  Let's just vote 4 me

[Olimar12345]

stfu noc, it's because of you we're in this mess.

[E. Gadd Industries]

Okay. I guess I was considering each human vote for two people as one collective vote. Yeah, Oli, your post makes sense.
So each wolf vote would look something like "<player> into the Bag" as opposed to the human "<player> & <player> into the Bag", yes?

Ninja'd

[Olimar12345]

So each wolf vote would look something like "<player> into the Bag" as opposed to the human "<player> & <player> into the Bag", yes?

well yeah, but it is a pm to the host, so its not like we get to see this : /

[FireArrow]

23% chance for the humans, 50% chance for the guessing wolves : /

No. Statistically if we vote randomly between daj and noc and the wolves cast 2 votes on one and wolf the other, then there's a 23% chance that the wolves will kill no one and a 77% chance that the wolves will kill a confirmed human. If we all vote for one of noc/daj, then there's a 100% chance the the wolves kill a confirmed human.

A random second vote between daj/noc is strictly the best plan. It gives us a chance of completely nullifying the wolves tonight or making them play safe and lynching an unconfirmed human.

noc is confirmed human though, that should just be egadd now.

No, it doesn't change the fact that noc used up one of our lynches by acting avoidably suspicous, which is the reason I'm suspicous of TZP. He just straight up doesn't post because he knows we're going to lynch E Gadd and Noc before we move on to inactives. Noc being confirmed now isn't relevant to the point I was making.

[FireArrow]

also I can't spell suspicious please kill me

[mikey]

I told you all I was a human.  This is not my fault and trying to blame me for you all wanting to lynch me is unproductive

[E. Gadd Industries]

Okay. I understand now.

Well, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go insane from coloring now. (Homework project thing)

[E. Gadd Industries]

^^In response to Olimar

[Olimar12345]

No. Statistically if we vote randomly between daj and noc and the wolves cast 2 votes on one and wolf the other, then there's a 23% chance that the wolves will kill no one and a 77% chance that the wolves will kill a confirmed human. If we all vote for one of noc/daj, then there's a 100% chance the the wolves kill a confirmed human.

I said 50% because there are only two options to choose from: voting noc/wolfing daj or voting daj/wolfing noc. (there would be no need to vote for and wolf the same choice). In this regard, they would just need to flip a coin.

A random second vote between daj/noc is strictly the best plan. It gives us a chance of completely nullifying the wolves tonight or making them play safe and lynching an unconfirmed human.

It isn't really the "best" plan, it's really our only choice : /

No, it doesn't change the fact that noc used up one of our lynches by acting avoidably suspicous, which is the reason I'm suspicous of TZP. He just straight up doesn't post because he knows we're going to lynch E Gadd and Noc before we move on to inactives. Noc being confirmed now isn't relevant to the point I was making.

I see now, miscommunication. Although noc as a player can now be disregarded since they are confirmed.

Ninjad:

I told you all I was a human.  This is not my fault and trying to blame me for you all wanting to lynch me is unproductive

You are the only one to blame for how you play. maybe next time don't be hella sketch and try to be more helpful?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I told you all I was a human.  This is not my fault and trying to blame me for you all wanting to lynch me is unproductive

As it is said: Show, don't tell.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Fun story: there are parts of Wisconsin that have literally no reception of any kind.  Just got back from an NYE party, everyone, so sorry for the radio silence.  Reading the thread now.

[Dude]

Agree with E. Gadd, but I'd hesitantly add FireArrow as an alternative to Olimar.

fa is third for me too as my suspicion isn't quite gone yet.