TWG XCIII: Get in the Fucking Bag

[FireArrow]

Sorry noc. Obviously we should bag maelstrom, but I think the best course of action for our second bagging is to randomly select either noc or daj. If it's random, there's a chance the wolves won't hit anyone with their wolfing. If this happens, we get another mislynch, which pretty much garuntees our victory. If it fails, well, then it's the same result if we all voted for one of them.

[Dude]

I would bag daj as he wasn't anyone who could kick maelstrom out

[Dude]

Also, egadd and Olimar are my top picks for checking tomorrow

[FireArrow]

I would bag daj as he wasn't anyone who could kick maelstrom out

Nebby can't be kicked out of the bag so we're good.

[Dude]

What about Exeggutor

[FireArrow]

3. Exeggutor: Its neck is so long that it takes up an extra spot in the Bag and the other Pokémon is forced out (at random, if the Bag has three spots). The first time this occurs, the other Pokémon becomes so confused that it cannot be captured that phase.

The pokemon can't be captured on the night that they're kicked out. If this happened we'd be informed and wouldn't bag exeggutor again.

[mikey]

I definitely thought we were switching over to e gadd

[Olimar12345]

Sorry noc. Obviously we should bag maelstrom, but I think the best course of action for our second bagging is to randomly select either noc or daj. If it's random, there's a chance the wolves won't hit anyone with their wolfing. If this happens, we get another mislynch, which pretty much garuntees our victory. If it fails, well, then it's the same result if we all voted for one of them.

...or the wolves could kill literally anyone else. Since they know each other, they know that literally everyone else is free game. twg 101

[FireArrow]

...or the wolves could kill literally anyone else. Since they know each other, they know that literally everyone else is free game. twg 101

That's good - it means we go into the next lynch with more confirmed humans.

[mikey]

If you want my opinion, the wolves will likely not kill anyone who voted for me, since it's more likely half of those votes were wolf votes

That's good - it means we go into the next lynch with more confirmed humans.

^yeah I'd rather the wolves be forced to shoot someone we don't yet know of to make it easier for us.

[Olimar12345]

Also, egadd and Olimar are my top picks for checking tomorrow

Okay, I get that my vote staying on noc was not a good move in hindsight, but lets look at the stats again:

Egadd (dude, noc, mael)
Noc (egadd, daj, bds, olimar, fa)

At best me moving my vote could have been a kitb. Remember that one of the wolves gets two lynch votes, so they would have had to vote egadd as well to change that. Also notice how TZP didn't even vote, despite being online with plenty of time to do so. Saying that my suspicious-ness spawned from voting on noc means that bds, fa, and tzp must have also gained that same suspicious-ness. (hell, even daj voted for noc d: )

That's good - it means we go into the next lynch with more confirmed humans.

Ooooh I get it. Them hitting a regular would be like us confirming another human. Well, if we all do a random vote between noc and daj, wouldn't there be a chance that it fails? With the wolf's increasing vote influence, they could both vote for the same person and add to the random human votes for that candidate, then wolf the opposite person (if that makes sense).

[E. Gadd Industries]

So... correct me if I'm wrong...
Right now, the wolves have one Bag vote each, yes? If they get someone else tonight, this will increase to two each, and that's the max they'll get? And then, they would be able to control the game. Because 10 players - 2 = 8 (obviously), and 6 being human. So if the wolves vote for the same for Bagging, that would be 4 votes against 6.
...wait... I'm confusing myself. This is correct, yes?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, egadd and Olimar are my top picks for checking tomorrow

Agree with E. Gadd, but I'd hesitantly add FireArrow as an alternative to Olimar.

[Olimar12345]

So... correct me if I'm wrong...
Right now, the wolves have one Bag vote each, yes? If they get someone else tonight, this will increase to two each, and that's the max they'll get? And then, they would be able to control the game. Because 10 players - 2 = 8 (obviously), and 6 being human. So if the wolves vote for the same for Bagging, that would be 4 votes against 6.
...wait... I'm confusing myself. This is correct, yes?

I am confused, so let me try to explain this and see if we're both on the same page here:

10 players - 1 dead davy = 9 players. Because of davy's death, both wolves get one vote, but human players get two votes. All human players will default vote for mael (nebby), so there will be 7 remaining votes, plus our two wolf votes bringing us to 9 that will go towards the random vote. There are two candidates: daj and noc. Lets say that the human players vote as evenly as possible: noc: 3 and daj: 4 (example). If the wolves both vote for the same person, then wolf the other option, they succeed because it would be either noc: 5 daj: 4 (wolf daj) or noc: 3 daj: 6 (wolf noc). The only way this plan works is if we all vote randomly and it doesn't come out even at all.

something like this?

[FireArrow]

Sort of. We all vote randomly using random.org and that gives us a 23% chance of causing the wolves to hit no one if they try and wolf a confirmed human. They aren't the most amazing odds, but it's better than the alternative of just leaving either daj or noc to die.