TWG XCII: Seeriously!

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Yeah.  I think from their perspectives, Daj should be pushing for a Dudeman lynch, and Olimar should be pushing for a Daj lynch.

I'm also not sold on the idea that BDS might be a wolf.  That seems close to untenable.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

ninja'd

Dudeman, if you're human, and BDS is a fool (which seems to be the case), then you know Daj lied about seering you.

[Dudeman]

ninja'd

Dudeman, if you're human, and BDS is a fool (which seems to be the case), then you know Daj lied about seering you.

Ah, right, had to go back and look at the roles again. I'll have to rethink things now. Still keeping my vote on BDS for the moment.

[Dude]

Apparently I guarded BDS last night instead of seering him

I seered FA red

[TheZeldaPianist275]

So
1. Dude is lying
2. Dude is the true seer.  Noc was a human, FA is a wolf, and Dudeman is probably the other wolf--fool less likely.
3. Dude is the stoned seer.  Noc was a wolf (not at all likely), and FA is a fool.

I appreciate how much FA's led the charge this game, but this is important: either Dude is lying, or FireArrow is not human.  Probably a wolf, since Noc's suicide as a wolf makes close to no sense.

[daj]

prolly gonna be ninja'd, typing all this on mobile jeez

So anyways I fucked up again. My bad ahaha

Right guys tell me if this makes sense ^^

So Mael and Noc both seered BDS red on Night 1. Both of them weren't fools, otherwise the whole world would know. That means that, if they didn't lie (seriously why would you lie), and considering all the other seering results (huge process skipped), we can assume that BDS is a fool. Which is nice. Which also means one of them was the Paranoid Seer and the other was the Stoned Seer. Doesn't matter which.

~

So um i trust myself and if you guys trust me then things work out quite nicely. I know I'm a seer, I know that my results are skewed because I seered BDS blue when everyone suggests he's a fool. So i'm a drunken fool, aaand Olimar is seering weird/lying. More on that later.

Anyway, let's fill in the blanks. BDS is a fool as we all know, and Dudeman could be the Wolf Shaman claiming to be a true seer (they do, after all, have the same ability). That means TZP has to be blue. And then we're left with the inactive players plus Olimar.

~

So um, Olimar is irky. I know I'm blue and I'm pretty certain i'm a drunken seer, so consider the possibility that he's a fool trying to kill himself.

So yep, here's what I have:

1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP: Wolf Shaman
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj: fool?
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
4. Dude - Noc, TBA:
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c: idk but he's blue
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA:
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool: yeah he's a fool alright
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman: Drunken Seer
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP:

[daj]

anyway one more post coming to update with dude's seering

[FireArrow]

1. We need to lynch BDS to know if he's a fool or not because right now we're treating this as a given with our logic.
2. What TZP said.

Basically imo I see the most likely scenario being Olimar/Dudeman/Dude as some combination of wolves and fools. Replace Dude with me if you trust him.

The real question is who ya'll should seer tonight (my results will always come back blue.) Dude is probably the best option since he's seperate from this whole suspicous trio you guys have going on, and seering eachother will be counter productive. The reason why dude over me is because dude is much more likely to a fool and therefore a more dangerous mislynch (if you guess wrong on me then you kill a useless seer, whoop de doo.)

 

[daj]

Actually let's consider this possibility:

Dude is not lying, no one lied on Night 1, and FA plays like a champ.

So Dude is the Wolf Shaman and FA is the Drunken Wolf Shaman. Hear me out a little

Both of them report the true results on Day 1, but on Day 2 FA takes advantage of the situation that no one has claimed Gullible Seer and false-claims TZP blue. Also happens to co-incide with Dudeman's seer, eh? So this throws us off a little. I guess this could have been a little test to see who was who on Night 1, and since knowing BDS' role would reveal to he wolves who was who they were pretty on-the-ball when it came to figuring out who BDS was.

Slot in the roles, and suddenly everything except FA's second seering fits perfectly

1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP: Wolf Shaman
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj: fool?
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
4. Dude - Noc, FA: Real Seer
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c: by elimination, Gullible Seer
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA: Foolish Seer
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool: yeah he's a fool alright
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman: Drunken Seer
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP: Drunken wolf Shaman

Now a BDS lynch today - we know he's a fool cuz the wolves have kindly sifted that out for us - would mean we only have one more day phase to turn things around before the wolves win by condition.

I'm quite sure about it, and there's no inconsistencies - Dudeman and FA are the wolves. So guys, let's do this:

Lynch Dudeman.
Seer FA tonight.

(and protect me maybe that'll be cool <3)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

There is a very strong case to be made for that^

[daj]

There is a very strong case to be made for that^

hehe thanks

Um two more people need to claim for a blue victory. That's dude and you (tzp)! Once you guys claim blue there is no way this is wrong, and we've won~

[Olimar12345]

Ugh too much is going on. I'll make an actual post when I get home, but I just wanted to say that this I agree with right now.

1. We need to lynch BDS to know if he's a fool or not because right now we're treating this as a given with our logic.

I still don't like the idea of intentionally killing fools, but right now it would be nice to have some sort of knowledge based on cold hard facts rather than keeping track of a whole bunch of scenarios. BDS 

[Dudeman]

Long analysis

The problem I'm seeing here is that, while you did an amazing analysis, you don't come out with the true seer, and the only person who fits that category (me, which makes this post defensive), you paint as the Wolf Shaman. That combined with this:

Dudeman, if you're human, and BDS is a fool (which seems to be the case), then you know Daj lied about seering you.

is making me doubt all your conclusions. On top of that:

Second analysis

You start off by pitching the idea that Dude and FA are the wolves, and explain the events of the game from this perspective. But then you turn around and say Dude's the true seer and I'm still a wolf? What happened?

[daj]

The problem I'm seeing here is that, while you did an amazing analysis, you don't come out with the true seer, and the only person who fits that category (me, which makes this post defensive), you paint as the Wolf Shaman. That combined with this:is making me doubt all your conclusions. On top of that:You start off by pitching the idea that Dude and FA are the wolves, and explain the events of the game from this perspective. But then you turn around and say Dude's the true seer and I'm still a wolf? What happened?

ahaha excuse the mess up there i'm on mobile xD

Um it's the whole naming thing haha. I meant to say that you (Dudeman) were the wolf shaman and unintentionally shortened it, welp. So things should make sense now~

Also doesn't help that, by my little analysis, Dude (without the man at the back) is the true seer. So yep~

Mm i know i didnt lie about seering you because hey, there's no point in that. Plus, why paint someone as a fool? That's just kinda weird and self-destructive most of the time.

I guess we could lynch BDS on this day phase though. A dangerous day phase is scary, but still can translate to a blue victory. That being said i will stick with my vote. I'm actually pretty sure things work out that way~

[TheZeldaPianist275]

So
1. Dude is lying
2. Dude is the true seer.  Noc was a human, FA is a wolf, and Dudeman is probably the other wolf--fool less likely.
3. Dude is the stoned seer.  Noc was a wolf (not at all likely), and FA is a fool.

I appreciate how much FA's led the charge this game, but this is important: either Dude is lying, or FireArrow is not human.  Probably a wolf, since Noc's suicide as a wolf makes close to no sense.

I just remembered--we lynched Noc, he wasn't wolfed.  So Noc could ostensibly have been a wolf.  My bad, guys, I really must be checked out here.