TWG LXXXIX: Updatin'

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Avenge meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...

[Maelstrom]

10 subs>3 subs in one night.
Analysis:
Two subs were lost for not voting.
That makes 8.
1-2 subs when BL was lynched
That makes 6-7.
Up to 2 subs could be lost by updaters N2.
That makes 4-5
(probably)At least one person used a sub.

AN UNCERTIANTITIY: IF THE UPDATERS TARGET SOMEONE WITH A NOT-WOLFING, AND THAT PERSON USED A SUB, WHAT HAPPENS?
Possibilities:
1. BDS used his last sub and died (Losing his first one N1), meaning Braix only had one, and BL had two left.
--That would mean 0-2 people got subs in, probably the latter unless BDS was targeted and accidently suicided.
2. BDS was targeted twice. Braix still only had one, but BL could have had one or two.
--This is a terrible choice from the updaters, and means 1-2 subs went through.
3. BDS was finished off after losing a sub both N1 and N2.
--Another terrible choice,

Aw, screw it. I'm not writing this out, because I just realized that each surviving person has one sub, which pretty much makes this irrelevant.

I'll just come out and say it.
I used a sub last night because I was bored, and it came back RED

It was Davy.

Honestly, this isn't that surprising, as he successfully bandwagoned against BL with no evidence whatsoever. Evidence, that, in fact, pointed to him as an arranger.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

All right, time to roll up the sleeves.

davy - I'm cautious of you.  Nothing you've done is obscenely wolfy, but you're an experienced enough player that that goes without saying.  You pushing Brainy's lynch feels manipulative.  Scanning through Brainy's previous games, that comment just seems characteristic of the guy.

TZP - Hi

Maelstrom - Updater irl insta plz.  All jokes aside, I really don't have much to go off with you, as you haven't said much.

E. Gadd - Same deal here.  Not much has even happened in this game to go off of, but your comments don't strike me as wolfy.

Daj - I gotta admit, I don't understand a bunch of the things you've said.  Why on earth are you "blacklisted" for this day phase?  I haven't seen any "colossal" mess-ups, either; you are pretty high on my suspicion list (such as it is) right now.

Brainy - I could see it both ways.  Not sure your lynch was a particularly wise move, but like Davy said, the game did need to get moving.

Braixen - certainly an arranger, or he wouldn't have been "phantomed" Day 1.  That, and the fact that I think he would have put more effort if he was an updater.  That's kind of annoying.

BDS - In my 3-year hiatus from NSM, I have to admit that I missed your particular brand of argument.  Wish you were here, pal.


I'm gonna throw this out there: I have only one submission remaining because I was attacked by an updater, not because I used a seering.  If someone has seering results they would care to share, it's time to do or die, because if we don't lynch an updater, we lose.

Discuss.

[Maelstrom]

Woops, forgot to vote for davy.

[Maelstrom]

Oh, hai tzp.
I wrote stuff.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Oh, majorly ninja'd.

I think a Davy lynch is a good idea today, but an insta would not be, so I'm not going to vote yet.

Maelstrom, from the op:

The updaters know each other. They have two abilities: 1) they can reject a submission (inverts the color of a submission in use) or 2) they can accept a submission (remove an arrangers submission when not in use). The updater does not need to specify which ability they are using, only the arranger they are targeting. This ability automatically targets submissions in use over idol ones.

If the updaters target an arranger who sent in a submission the same night, it will be inverted (red -> green or green -> red).

Three possibilities, then.
1) Maelstrom sent in a seering without being targeted by an updater and got an accurate result, and Davy is an updater.
2) Maelstrom sent in a seering and got updated (lol), in which case Davy is an arranger who got framed.
3) Maelstrom is just making up his seering to push a Davy lynch.

Again, discuss.

[Maelstrom]

Check my math.
If BDS didn't use a Sub, you didn't use a sub, and no one else used a sub, then my sub could not have been inverted.
Let's wait to see if anyone claims they used one.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Doesn't your math hinge on the fact that Brainy had 1 or 2 submissions to lose when he was lynched?  Because if he was an updater, he wouldn't have had any.

[daj]

I blindly but politely agree to your thinkamajigs!

davy.

Maelstrom is innocent! I seer'd him and he seems pretty nice anyway.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

daj, please retract your vote.  If we're wrong about Davy, that gives an updater the opportunity to vote for him and insta, in which case we lose.

[davy]

Just posting here to say that TZP is green.

Defense will be in a later post, as I am busy this morning.

And daj, like TZP said, please remove your vote from me, I don't like to be wolf rushed.

[daj]

daj, please retract your vote.  If we're wrong about Davy, that gives an updater the opportunity to vote for him and insta, in which case we lose.

b-buuuut if we don't immediately destroy him then we're left with a maximum of three subs on the next night! if no wolves were lynched (which is probable), then we're losing two of that in the next night, so that means that we'll be left with one arranger, and that's an insta the next day phase anyway.

I think we need to hold on to this hunch.

...But for now, yeah. let's give it some time maybe.

retract vote.

[davy]

Check my math.
If BDS didn't use a Sub, you didn't use a sub, and no one else used a sub, then my sub could not have been inverted.
Let's wait to see if anyone claims they used one.

Let's for the sake of the argument assume BDS used a sub, because like you said, double targeting BDS this night phase or targeting him twice in a row is a terrible choice for the arrangers.

E. Gadd hasn't claimed nor denied that he sent in a sub yet, so I'm going to show that in both cases, there are multiple scenarios in which I am an arranger.

If E. Gadd didn't sent in a sub, we have three players who claimed to have sent in a sub, and two players who assume they were targeted. At least one seering result is inverted or claimed by a wolf, who have no obligation to be truthful about the seering. From my perspective, knowing that I'm an arranger, that means the following wolf duo's are possible:

1. Mael & Daj: both of them are lying about the color they recieved. They targeted TZP and E. Gadd last night phase.
2. Mael & E. Gadd: Mael is lying about the color he recieved and Daj got his seering inverted. TZP was also targeted last night phase.
3. Daj & E. Gadd: Daj was truthful about Mael's color. Mael got his seering inverted and TZP was targeted as well.
4. E. Gadd & TZP: Mael and I were targeted last night phase giving us inverted seerings.

Now, if E. Gadd did use a sub (or at least claims he used a sub), we have four people who claimed they used a sub, as well as TZP, who claims he got wolfed. Out of those four players, only one gives a correct result, because either TZP is a human, which means he was targeted, another human was targeted and got his seer result inverted, one human got a correct result and the other two are wolves, who have no obligation to be truthful about their seering. If TZP is a wolf, two humans were targeted and got their seer result inverted, one human got a correct result and the remaining one is a wolf. In other words, out of all the seerings we are going to see, only one is going to be correct. From my perspective, knowing that I'm an arranger, that means the following wolf duo's are possible:

1. Mael & Daj: both of them are lying about the color they recieved. They targeted TZP and E. Gadd last night phase.
2. Mael & E. Gadd: Mael is lying and Daj got his seering inverted. TZP was also targeted last night phase.
3. Mael & TZP: Mael is lying and Daj as well as I got our seering inverted.
4. Daj & E. Gadd: Daj was truthful of Mael's color. Mael got his seering inverted. TZP was also targeted last night phase.
5. Daj & TZP: Daj was truthful of Mael's color. Mael and I got our seering inverted.
6. TZP & E. Gadd: Mael and I were targeted last night phase giving us inverted seerings.

Summarized, that means that just because Mael claims he seered me red it doesn't mean I'm an updater, in fact, there are multiple possibilities for me to not be an updater.

This post has gone on for long enough, I'll write the remainder of my defense in my next post.

[E. Gadd Industries]

GUISE!!! Ok, I used a submission last night!
I seer'd davy red!
I KNEW IT

I'm voting davy!

[davy]

E Gadd, remove your vote darnit I said I didn't want to be wolf rushed