TWG LXXXII: File Island

[Dudeman]

Oh, and if anyone digivolves into a champion digi, let us know if you're told you're a data digimon. There's a 3/4 chance you're actually a wolf.

A champion data digimon is either Shellmon (safe), Numemon, Sukamon, or Nanimon (all wolves). Even though the chance is low, if it does happen, the wolf chance is high. Just wanted to throw this out here in case we get caught up in discussing other elements when there might accidentally be a wolf around.

[fank009]

Fank, did you read the thread at all?

I have been reading it, and all of a sudden you come out of nowhere with a brilliant idea...
(maybe the voice of FA is drowning you out)
the point was that you are a crouching tiger hidden dragon. and thats why I (initally) put you on that vig list.

A champion data digimon is either Shellmon (safe), Numemon, Sukamon, or Nanimon (all wolves). Even though the chance is low, if it does happen, the wolf chance is high. Just wanted to throw this out here in case we get caught up in discussing other elements when there might accidentally be a wolf around.

Have a look at the trees, Shellmon goes from green to green...
there are a few other mon that are green in rookie stage, but that still keeps the probability...
if you go from blue to green, then you are a wolf.

[FireArrow]

Fank, my entire plan is based off of what dude said. If he's a wolf he shot himself in the foot.

A champion data digimon is either Shellmon (safe), Numemon, Sukamon, or Nanimon (all wolves). Even though the chance is low, if it does happen, the wolf chance is high. Just wanted to throw this out here in case we get caught up in discussing other elements when there might accidentally be a wolf around.

If you haven't been reborn yet, there's a 100% chance you'll be shellmon.
If you have been reborn, there's a 90% chance you'll be a wolf (I say 90% because sukamon can turn green.) Only 2 people will take this chance - Latios, and whoever is night killed tonight. That means there's an 81% chance that we'll never even have to deal with the, and even if we do, they don't do anything other than count for wolf numbers.

[Latios212]

So lemme get this straight - I'm supposed to PM everyone under the assumption that Jijimon will forward my request to be reborn, and we'll lynch Palmon if he claims so we have two confirmed humans

[fank009]

In chat if anyone likes

[Brawler4Ever]

If the pm is going to be sent today, Latios, then you need to be lynched today. If you're going to be vigi'd, then the pm must be sent during Night 2. As long as we're all on the same page, it ends up the same either way. However, because Palmon hasn't revealed himself yet, I suggest that we remain with the current plan, i.e. lynching you on Day 1. We can vigi Palmon on Night 2. In both cases, one of you is lynched and the other is vigi'd, so it all amounts to the same thing.

[FireArrow]

@Latios - in layman terms, yes.

If the pm is going to be sent today, Latios, then you need to be lynched today. If you're going to be vigi'd, then the pm must be sent during Night 2. As long as we're all on the same page, it ends up the same either way. However, because Palmon hasn't revealed himself yet, I suggest that we remain with the current plan, i.e. lynching you on Day 1. We can vigi Palmon on Night 2. In both cases, one of you is lynched and the other is vigi'd, so it all amounts to the same thing.

No.

We lynch palmon.
Latios sends the PM.
They're unrelated events, you don't need to die from an external force for the PM to work, it does all that on its own.

[Brawler4Ever]

You're right, FA. They're unrelated. Sorry about that.

Another plan:

D1: We lynch latios. This removes the 50% chance that he has to become a wolf, and doesn't use Jiji's power.
N2: Somebody gets wolfed. We vigi Palmon to stop him from becoming a wolf.
D2: We lynch Jiji. Palmon (or the wolf target, doesn't matter) uses Jiji to be reborn at the end of the phase. This removes the 50% chance.
N3: We vigi the survivor from N2 (Palmon or the wolf target). Somebody gets wolfed.

What this gives us:
Latios: confirmed human
Palmon: confirmed human.
Jiji: dead (sorry!)
Potential wolf: dead
N3 wolf target: dead

That makes it 2 wolves vs 3 possible humans and 2 confirmed humans. I'd say that those are pretty good odds, all things considered. Best case scenario, we still have the Vigi and Seer at the start of D4. That should give us enough time to hunt down the remaining wolves. Any suggestions?

[fank009]

That makes it 2 wolves vs 3 possible humans and 2 confirmed humans. I'd say that those are pretty good odds, all things considered. Best case scenario, we still have the Vigi and Seer at the start of D4. That should give us enough time to hunt down the remaining wolves. Any suggestions?

pokes list (-dude)

[Dude]

pokes list (-dude)

Thank you

[Bubbles]

shit sorry I was at work!!! I'm palmon. Bubbles

[Brawler4Ever]

Well, that makes things interesting. Thanks Bubbles!

I'm voting Bubbles because his chance of becoming a wolf is 100% compared to Latios' less-than-100%. As far as the plan I posted, just trade Latios and Bubbles everywhere and it works the same; we vigi Latios on N2 and he gets the rebirth on D2.

If there's not any better ideas, of course.

[FireArrow]

Convenient, I already had my vote on you. :3

I'll revote at the end of the phase to ensure that I suffer the roleblock penalty (I'm a green human so... what penalty.)

Another plan:

D1: We lynch latios. This removes the 50% chance that he has to become a wolf, and doesn't use Jiji's power.
N2: Somebody gets wolfed. We vigi Palmon to stop him from becoming a wolf.
D2: We lynch Jiji. Palmon (or the wolf target, doesn't matter) uses Jiji to be reborn at the end of the phase. This removes the 50% chance.
N3: We vigi the survivor from N2 (Palmon or the wolf target). Somebody gets wolfed.

What this gives us:
Latios: confirmed human
Palmon: confirmed human.
Jiji: dead (sorry!)
Potential wolf: dead
N3 wolf target: dead

That makes it 2 wolves vs 3 possible humans and 2 confirmed humans. I'd say that those are pretty good odds, all things considered. Best case scenario, we still have the Vigi and Seer at the start of D4. That should give us enough time to hunt down the remaining wolves. Any suggestions?

Why would we not use jiji's powers today. We can have bubbles send the PMs and lynch latios instead if you'd rather do it that way (probably better since everyone is already voting latios), but either way it's best to get both of those done in one day as it allows us to kill 2 birds with one stone day 2 (wolf target can use jiji's PM power, we lynch jiji.) Your plan leaves the N2 wolf victim with a 50% chance of becoming a wolf, which we can avoid all together.

Also davy, can I request a phase extension if we get bit in the butt by inactivity (on the part of voters, latios, jijimon, etc. This plan requires a lot of moving parts)?

[FireArrow]

I'm voting Bubbles because his chance of becoming a wolf is 100% compared to Latios' less-than-100%. As far as the plan I posted, just trade Latios and Bubbles everywhere and it works the same; we vigi Latios on N2 and he gets the rebirth on D2.

Why not just use jiji's powers today instead of the vigi?

[mikey]

that means me brawler FA and Latios are the 4 greens?