TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[FireArrow]

I'll join chat shortly. I honestly had human leans for both Nocturne and Brawler and I feel it was silly to lynch either of them. What wolf goes into a blood bath day 1 (hypocritical I know, but you get the point.) Right now my biggest suspicion is still BDS, my vote on Latios being a reaction test. I'll elaborate later.

[Bubbles]

First off, I'd like to say that I'm not a fan of this hiding (or delayed posting) of chatlogs. All information in the chat should be available to all players, it's not supposed to be some exclusive group thing. The only reason players would need to talk secretly when no alliance exists is if they are wolves, so share! I'm a bit suspicious of davy and Brawler for doing that not once but twice, and I probably would have voted for davy last phase if I got here in time. I've been giving Brawler and Dudeman more leeway this game because they're newer players, but if next day phase we're in a similar situation I won't look the other way

I wasn't going to vote Noc because I skimmed through the thread, and when you're reading everything all at once (and truthfully not reading a lot of the bigger posts, heh) bandwagons look more glaring. After going back though, I stand by my original post. Noc always has some weird wording and reasonings, and I wanted to let him hang around a little more to see if he cleaned himself up since I didn't see anything too terrible against him.

[Bubbles]

I joined the chat and got questioned on my previous post, so here's the log so I don't have to be asked again here:

Spoiler

22:37      *** bubbles joined #TWG
22:37   Brawler4Ever   to be fair, NoS started it
22:37   Brawler4Ever   hey
22:37   ArrowFire   Actually now that you bring it up olimar is kinda bleh
22:37   NickServ   Password accepted - you are now recognized.
22:37   Latios   Party time!
22:37   Brawler4Ever   he's busy
22:37   Latios   I think Olimar was like me
22:37   ArrowFire   ah I see
22:37   Latios   just checking in
22:37   bubbles   yo
22:37   Latios   Hi Bubbles
22:37   ArrowFire   sup
22:37   bubbles   arrowfire?
22:38   Latios   yeah who is that
22:38   bubbles   oh
22:38   ArrowFire   the arrows of everything fire
22:38   bubbles   ignore me lmao
22:38   Brawler4Ever   lol
22:38   Brawler4Ever   i didn't even notice that
22:38   ArrowFire   :[
22:38   ArrowFire   I'm reading through old games right now for BDS info
22:38   Brawler4Ever   i don't notice things well
22:38   Latios   wait we're supposed to post chat logs all the time??
22:38   ArrowFire   I think it's optional
22:38   ArrowFire   right?
22:39      *** Jub3r7 joined #TWG
22:39   Brawler4Ever   hey
22:39   Latios   Man, five people
22:39   Jub3r7   I made a reads list!!! and 3/4 people here are listed as
22:39   Latios   It really is party time
22:39   Brawler4Ever   when was our second "secret" chat log?
22:39   Brawler4Ever   the only one was the one that I posted
22:39   Jub3r7   I mean 3/4 of you are listed as on my reads list so this is great
22:40   Brawler4Ever   sweeeet
22:40   Brawler4Ever   let the reading begin!
22:40   Latios   Read me I'm human
22:40   Jub3r7   Latios, how do you feel about NOS lynch?
22:40   Jub3r7   from a scale of 0 to confident?
22:41   Jub3r7   I am talking retroactively and I am aware that the phase ended
22:41   bubbles   oops didn't know you guys were talking to me
22:41   Jub3r7   oh yeah you too bubbles, can you explain why you weren't feeling the NOS lynch?
22:41   bubbles   chatlogs arent necessarily supposed to be always public but its really helpful
22:41   Latios   I'm not entirely sure because Noc always seems off and it seems to be a thing that we always lynch him day 1
22:41   Latios   but I didn't exactly see too much in his favor
22:41   bubbles   i remember a few games ago we had a chat that saved everything and it was great
22:42   Brawler4Ever   that would be helpful
22:42   bubbles   but saying "me and him were talking and decided to not tell anyone" is a reed flag to me
22:42   Brawler4Ever   yeah, i can see that
22:42   bubbles   davy posted the second log somewhere, the one with bds
22:42   bubbles   red flag* lmao
22:43   Latios   bubbles do you have yesterday's log?
22:43   Brawler4Ever   that wasn't secret
22:43   Latios   while we're at it
22:43   bubbles   no
22:43   bubbles   i dont save logs #hypocrite
22:43   Latios   oh
22:43   bubbles   we didnt really say anything though right?
22:43   Jub3r7   Bubbles, if you saw their explanation, they were discussing wolf strategies that could be used against town
22:43   Latios   I don't think so
22:43   Jub3r7   Which isn't a wolf thing to do since the log was actually posted
22:43   Latios   then again it was past midnight so I barely remember anything
22:44   Brawler4Ever   the only part that we cut out was ideas for the wolves to beat the alliance
22:44   Brawler4Ever   we felt that that knowledge should not be made public
22:44   Latios   I personally don't see a problem with that
22:44   bubbles   but how were you comfortable enough to have that conversation in the first place?
22:45   bubbles   how did you know that the people you were talking to werent wolves trying to draw things out?
22:45   bubbles   or vice versa
22:45   Jub3r7   Because they wanted to know whether or not it was an optimal strategy for the guardian to claim.
22:45   bubbles   and?
22:45   bubbles   i dont get it
22:45   Jub3r7   And to figure it out, they discussed it.
22:45   Brawler4Ever   it was just me and davy
22:46   Jub3r7   What are the downsides? What can the wolves do in response to it?
22:46   Jub3r7   And they discussed what the wolves could do in response to it, and decided not to post it so wolves wouldn't think of it.
22:46   Brawler4Ever   hold on, i need to put my nephew to bed. afk
22:46   Jub3r7   *would have to think of it themselves.
22:46   Jub3r7   I don't see where your confusion is coming from.
22:47   Jub3r7   Anyway, their discussion lead to a conclusion that was not optimal, since there were reasons in their logic that were incorrect.
22:48   Jub3r7   That latter part was pointed out by Mashi!
22:48   bubbles   its not the " lets not post this" that i have an issue with, its the "lets not post this--wait nvm lets post it now"
22:48   bubbles   its not necessarily bad, i just dont like it
22:49   Jub3r7   To be honest, I'm a bit guilty of doing things like that and I do agree that it's not a good idea
22:49   Jub3r7   Hence my >_> in response to "I was going to not post it but I'm doing it now anyway"
22:49   bubbles   especially how half of it WAS posted, things were omitted

[close]

[Brawler4Ever]

19:54   Brawler4Ever   I have to admit, that wasn't my best moment

[Brawler4Ever]

19:54   Brawler4Ever   I have to admit, that wasn't my best moment

To clarify, I posted this a few lines below Bubbles'.

Spoiler

19:49   Jub3r7   Hence my >_> in response to "I was going to not post it but I'm doing it now anyway"
19:49   bubbles   especially how half of it WAS posted, things were omitted
19:50   bubbles   anyway
19:50   bubbles   i thought i said why i didn't like the noc lynch?
19:50   ArrowFire   Yeah
19:50   ArrowFire   I didn't like it either
19:50   bubbles   my last post in the thread
19:50   Jub3r7   FireArrow, explicate. I think bubbles gave her reason in your most recent post?
19:51   ArrowFire   I posted aswell
19:51   Jub3r7   Also, if you read Noc's reasons toward the end of the phase they started to get worse.
19:51   Jub3r7   Yeah, but why?
19:51   ArrowFire   But basically I don't think wolves get themselves into hyper active battles day one
19:52   Jub3r7   I assure you, they can and they do
19:52   Latios   I thought that happened to Noc in a recent game
19:52   ArrowFire   Yes but they usually don't start them
19:52   ArrowFire   In this case they both kinda started it
19:54   Jub3r7   Noc's posts were vague because he was on mobile a majority most of the time, but it felt more like an excuse to me, especially after reading the longer posts.
19:54   Brawler4Ever   "Hence my >_> in response to "I was going to not post it but I'm doing it now anyway" "
19:54   Brawler4Ever   I have to admit, that wasn't my best moment

[close]

[Brawler4Ever]

I'm assuming that Bubbles didn't see it, which is fine.

[Latios212]

Been spending some time in chat but forget to post my thoughts, oops. Here's a brief summary of what I've been thinking (I'm not terribly certain about all of this).

I have mixed feelings about Noc, he seems kinda off as he always does but as mentioned multiple times there wasn't much substance in his last couple of posts. Meh.

After more consideration Brawler just seems to be really into the game, and I don't see his hyper-activity as incriminating. Not sure what to think of Dudeman and Olimar but Olimar seems to just have been bandwagoning because he was busy. Brawler and davy discussing the plan in private seems kinda meh; at first davy seemed alright but I'm not really sure.

I haven't read the details of Mashi's and davy's arguments about the plan yet.

Bubbles and Maelstrom are pretty human seeming.

[davy]

This is incorrect.  Regardless of whether a Wolf is lynched or not, in this game, Humans lose on the 5th mislynch.

It has been decided that games can end on a night phase as well unless stated otherwise. Therefore, if no wolf is lynched, Humans lose at the start of day 5 with 3 wolves and 3 humans, therefore losing on the 4th mislynch. Killing a wolf with the vigi (or lynching the wolf and then vigi'ing the true blue player) shifts the game from a night phase end to a day phase end granting us that 4th mislynch.

Your statement about losing mislynchs is false.  If the Vigi vigis every Night Phase and we mislynch every Day Phase, then by the time we reach Day 3, there will be 3 Wolves and 5 Humans remaining, with having been made 2 lynches and 2 vigis.  However, if we don't vigi at all, then by Day 5, there will be 3 Wolves and 4 Humans remaining, with having been made 4 lynches.  The former will technically give us an extra kill for the Human, but at the risk of missing Day Phases and a bit complicated statistical stuff regarding normal Day Phase and vigi Wolf-kill probabilities.  The latter gives us the maximum number of Day Phases, but causes our Vigi to do nothing.

That's just the point, extra human kills (two actually because by the start of day 5 humans will lose in no vigi strats, while in vigi strats the vigi has an additional night phase to kill a wolf). I do not care for additional discussion time if it costs us two uses of the only weapons we have to kill wolves. If you are disagreeing with this, that makes you really wolfish.

at

Alliance created by the vigi, not sure how you missed that.

NSM's

Don't ignore the alliance I created as Master Wolf. The majority of the players were accepting me as alliance leader, so we had an alliance.

games

Once again, alliances created by the vigi. Adding a sniper to the game does not prevent the players from creating an alliance. We're not talking about if the game was designed to be an alliance game (which is also not something we're discussing about this game), we're talking about if the game

none

Fank contacted you and revealed both he and Olimar were masons. I'd call that a behind the scene alliance.

were

Really? We had the houses in an alliance and TZP and I had an alliance at the end of the game. Most importantly, we had a leader in the form of TZP, yet that didn't stop the game from being active.

whereas active games (20+ pages) are consistently almost always non-alliance games.

Give me numbers Mashi, I think with the above I have proven that 'almost always' is incorrect. Mind you we're still talking about games with alliances, not games that were designed to have an alliance.

I would attribute the game being active due to unique circumstances and the Players rather than anything about the design; it's incredibly conspicuous that the game was an outlier.

I would attribute the remainder of the more active games to be not desinged to be alliance games due to active player bases causes humans to play better and therefore the host making it more difficult for the humans to create alliances. Not the other way around (no alliance games creating more active player base).

Did you calculate the statistic?  Because the chances of a Guardian making a successful guard (where number of players alive is n and number of Wolves alive should be a bit less than 1/(n-1).  The chances of the Guardian being killed is 1/(n-w).
I decided to simulate the chances of a Guardian making a successful block on Excel.  I assumed 13 Players were alive, 3 of them were Wolves, 1 was a Guardian, the Wolves don't wolf themselves, and the Guardian can't guard himself/herself.  Based on a sample size of 15315, 1153 successful guards were made, which is about 7.523% successful guards!  With those same assumptions, the chances of the Guardian being wolfed is 10%, so getting a successful guard in certainly isn't out of the question.

I admit that I made a mistake there. However I'd still rather be sure the guardian is useful than to have a chance the guardian is useful. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter now anyway.

First off, I'd like to say that I'm not a fan of this hiding (or delayed posting) of chatlogs. All information in the chat should be available to all players, it's not supposed to be some exclusive group thing. The only reason players would need to talk secretly when no alliance exists is if they are wolves, so share! I'm a bit suspicious of davy and Brawler for doing that not once but twice, and I probably would have voted for davy last phase if I got here in time. I've been giving Brawler and Dudeman more leeway this game because they're newer players, but if next day phase we're in a similar situation I won't look the other way

Secrecy is part of the entire game, not just limited to wolves and alliance members. Brawler and I had to discuss possible flaws in the strategy in order to see if we didn't overlook anything. Also, I think I missed the seccond time (or I just can't find it). Can you link me to the post where we are deliberately ommiting parts of the chat?

22:44   bubbles   but how were you comfortable enough to have that conversation in the first place?
22:45   bubbles   how did you know that the people you were talking to werent wolves trying to draw things out?
22:45   bubbles   or vice versa

"The person I'm discussing this with might be a wolf, therefore it's better to tell all the wolves." That doesn't seem logical to me.

22:48   bubbles   its not the " lets not post this" that i have an issue with, its the "lets not post this--wait nvm lets post it now"

What I was going to do is taking the discussion with anybody who disagreed to private messages. Then Mashi decided to be the one to disagree with me, and from experience, I was pretty convinced I wouldn't sway him, so I decided to involve the entire topic because I thought I might be able too convince other players. Since we had to reveal the same things we discussed in chat, we decided to post the remainder of the chat anyway because it would help the discussion. To me, all this seems like the most logical way to handle this, and I can't see how you would disagree with this.

22:48   bubbles   its not necessarily bad, i just dont like it

"I don't think this player is a wolf, but I am going to lynch him because I don't like the way he plays this game." That's a really bad human play, Bubbles. I know you can do better.

[Brawler4Ever]

Also, I think I missed the seccond time (or I just can't find it). Can you link me to the post where we are deliberately ommiting parts of the chat?

He is referring to the conversation between you, me, and BDS. I don't see why this would be suspicious. The chat service automatically deletes older chat posts. There's nothing that davy or BDS could have done about it, except preemptively copy and paste the chat logs into a separate document. Does anybody really do that, though?

(I lost a bit of the chatlog because it was too long, sorry).

chatlog

00:56   BlackDragonSlayer   Having players who remain inactive throughout the game is detrimental, especially late in the game, when wolves can easily take advantage of the lack of votes to push a lynch that wouldn't normally go through.
00:56   davy   And the same isn't true for you because...?
00:56   BlackDragonSlayer   Whereas lynching a player because they're probably going to be lynched anyway is not only lazy, but also unhelpful because there are other ways to determine alignment.
00:57   BlackDragonSlayer   Especially when you insinuate that that person is possibly a human either way.
00:58   davy   Lynching inactives is also lazy, there are also other ways to determine alignment and that player is possible a human as well.
00:58   BlackDragonSlayer   But they're not going to be active either way.
00:58   davy   You can never be sure about that.
00:59   davy   And most importantly, he changed his vote to a better grounded one, so his bad lynching reason is not of present concern anyway.
01:00   BlackDragonSlayer   "You can never be sure about that." For the most part, yes.
01:00   BlackDragonSlayer   "And most importantly, he changed his vote to a better grounded one, so his bad lynching reason is not of present concern anyway." It still happened either way.
01:00      *** Brawler4Ever joined #TWG
01:00   davy   Hi there
01:00   Brawler4Ever   hey
01:01   davy   We're currently discussing BDS's vote.
01:01   Brawler4Ever   ok
01:01   Brawler4Ever   it's currently against firearrow, correct?
01:01   davy   Yes.
01:01   Brawler4Ever   i just saw your post. i miscounted lol.
01:02   davy   For the reason why he went for BDS.
01:02   Brawler4Ever   who went for BDS? FireArrow?
01:02   davy   And I'm like, it was an early day one vote, which are often not very well thought out, and he changed his vote to a better one later anyway
01:02   davy   Yes, FA
01:03   Brawler4Ever   ok I see
01:03   Brawler4Ever   I see your point, BDS
01:03   davy   "one of (BDS)'s selling points for the lynch is that he's probably going to be lynched later anyway, so if he's a human, he should be lynched now"
01:04   BlackDragonSlayer   It seemed to me like he would have kept his vote had the lynched picked up more traction, though.
01:04   BlackDragonSlayer   "one of (BDS)'s selling points for the lynch is that he's probably going to be lynched later anyway, so if he's a human, he should be lynched now" FireArrow's, actually.
01:04   Brawler4Ever   it sounds like he was trying to build up the anti-BDS bandwagon
01:04   Brawler4Ever   yeah, I got that
01:04   Brawler4Ever   nvm i don't have it
01:05   Brawler4Ever   who's saying that? I'm looking for it in the forum
01:06   davy   I just think you are overanalysing his vote, but I do understeand now why you vote for him. Thanks for explaining.
01:06   BlackDragonSlayer   Also, about the inactives thing, keep in mind the ending of TWG 65.
01:07   Brawler4Ever   i wasn't there for TWG 65. Should I look it up?
01:07   davy   However, it seems like the lynch is going to be decided between Brawler and NoS.
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   That's one of the games I was referring to.
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=6176.msg243345#msg243345
01:07   davy   Also, about BDS thing, keep in mind the entirety of TWG 55
01:07   Brawler4Ever   lol
01:07   Brawler4Ever   so much history
01:07   BlackDragonSlayer   Basically I left Wolf alive on the chance that he'd actually go for the illogical lynch.
01:07   davy   And a bunch of other games.
01:07   Brawler4Ever   I need to catch up on my reading
01:08   davy   But back on topic, are you (BDS) comfortable with keeping distance from the NoS/Brawler debate, and if not, who would you rather have dying today?
01:09   Brawler4Ever   should I leave the room?
01:09   davy   No, please stay. The more chatters the bigger the chat party.
01:09   Brawler4Ever   i mean for this specific discussion, lol
01:09   davy   Also, BDS and I could discuss in private if we wanted to.
01:10   Brawler4Ever   i would prefer that, for BDS's sake
01:10   BlackDragonSlayer   50/50 between them now. I think some of Nocturne's later actions are a bit strange.
01:10   davy   And the 50 for Brawler because overreaction?
01:11   davy   I don't mind you (Brawler) contributing to the discussion either.
01:11   Brawler4Ever   it's not fair if nocturne isn't here to defend himself
01:11   Brawler4Ever   any comment I make will invariably be trying to make BDS come to my side
01:12   davy   That's his fault, not yours.
01:12   BlackDragonSlayer   Mostly because I could potentially see him being a wolf in this situation also, as I mention in an earlier chat (with Mashi and Bubbles).
01:12   Brawler4Ever   I don't believe that that creates a healthy community
01:12   Brawler4Ever   btw, i posted a new counter to nocturne in the forum
01:12   BlackDragonSlayer   I.e. He hasn't done anything to expressly make me believe he's human.
01:12   davy   Brawler, we're killing eachother, and fighting for our lives, and you think this is a healthy community?
01:12   Brawler4Ever   have i done anything to make me seem wolfish, other than defend myself?
01:13   BlackDragonSlayer   Not expressly wolfish, either.
01:13   Brawler4Ever   honor is the only thing that separates us from the wolves
01:13   Brawler4Ever   or some such noble bullcrap whatever
01:13   davy   Nope, number and knowledge are the only things that sperates us from the wolves
01:13   davy   I often lie as a human.
01:13   Brawler4Ever   my argument with nocturne came after he accused me
01:14   Brawler4Ever   his accusation had absolutely no basis
01:14   Brawler4Ever   everything came AFTER Mashi posted our chat log
01:14   Brawler4Ever   with which I am perfectly fine
01:14   Brawler4Ever   but NoS had no reason to suspect me of anything, unless he also suspects you, BDS
01:14   Brawler4Ever   but he expressly denies that now
01:15   davy   So BDS, if Brawler doesn't seem either wolfish or human, but Nocturne's later actions are strange, why is it a 50/50 instead of leading towards Noct?
01:15   BlackDragonSlayer   I recall him saying that he did suspect me.
01:15   Brawler4Ever   his only argument now is that I'm overreacting (which, to be honest, I am)
01:15   Brawler4Ever   who suspected you? me?
01:15   Brawler4Ever   of course I did
01:15   BlackDragonSlayer   Nocturne.
01:15   Brawler4Ever   you made a very strange comment
01:15   Brawler4Ever   oh
01:16   Brawler4Ever   pretty sure everybody suspected you, BDS xD
01:16   davy   Brawler, do you have the mood swing curse? (see TWG 73)
01:16   Brawler4Ever   nah
01:16   Brawler4Ever   olimar's comment ticked me off
01:17   Brawler4Ever   im not bipolar or anything
01:17   BlackDragonSlayer   "if Brawler doesn't seem either wolfish or human, but Nocturne's later actions are strange, why is it a 50/50 instead of leading towards Noct?" Nocturne's earlier actions weren't (or rather, earlier actions involving Nocturne). There's always the possibility that Nocturne is just reacting strangely to the situation.
01:17   davy   Ok, I understeand.
01:17   Brawler4Ever   nocturne's actions we're what?
01:17   Brawler4Ever   wolfish?
01:17   davy   Is there any other player that you would consider lynching (besides FA)?
01:18   davy   were strange
01:18   Brawler4Ever   ok
01:18   Brawler4Ever   if it weren't for NoS, I'd be voting for Toby with Dude
01:19   Brawler4Ever   oh, bird is a member of this forum
01:19   Brawler4Ever   i did not know that
01:19   BlackDragonSlayer   At this point, aside from the people who have already been mentioned, I don't feel strongly suspicious about anybody in particular. However, I think Mashi is human at this point.
01:19   Brawler4Ever   sorry, tangent
01:19   davy   Why do you think that?
01:19   davy   Mashi is the person I'm always least certain of his humanity
01:19   davy   (together with bird and verm of course)
01:20   BlackDragonSlayer   I was reading some older games on LLF, and Mashi was talking similarly in a few of those games towards me as he was in this game.
01:20   Brawler4Ever   hahaha! i have no history! I am a closed book! muahahaha!
01:20   davy   Towards you? In private, in the chat or in the topic?
01:20   davy   You have a history of reviving the first wolf victim as soon as possible.
01:20   BlackDragonSlayer   Just the way he was going about asking questions/interrogating me.  In the chat. Bubbles was there also.
01:20   Brawler4Ever   ...
01:20   Brawler4Ever   that was one time...
01:21   davy   Especially if you are scared to death of being wolf'd.
01:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Olimar might've been there also, or he might have left at that time.
01:21   Brawler4Ever   exactly my thoughts
01:21   davy   Your thoughts about what?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   was he a wolf in those games?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   or a human? mashi, I mean?
01:21   davy   What games?
01:21   Brawler4Ever   BDS's games
01:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Brawler is starting to confuse me a bit.
01:22   davy   The games on LLF you mentioned.
01:22   Brawler4Ever   yes, davy and I were on a tangent
01:22   davy   was mashi a human there?
01:22   Brawler4Ever   im trying to get us out of it.
01:22   BlackDragonSlayer   He was human in those games, and I think I might've been a wolf in one of them...? I'd have to go back and read through them again to cite specific examples.
01:23   Brawler4Ever   i don't think that's necessary, honestly
01:23   Brawler4Ever   i don't trust mashi
01:23   davy   What do you guys think about a Dudeman lynch?
01:23   Brawler4Ever   why dudeman?
01:24   BlackDragonSlayer   Yeah... why Dudeman...?
01:24   Brawler4Ever   because of his comment against me?
01:24   davy   I was thinking about voting for him before NoS recent posts.
01:24   davy   Yes
01:24   davy   It was pretty bandwagoning, and he didn't seem to care that you had a vote against you already.
01:24   Brawler4Ever   "Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon." -Dudeman
01:25   davy   this post:http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg296540#msg296540
01:25   Brawler4Ever   a few others commented and destroyed his reasoning
01:25   Brawler4Ever   bubbles and mashi, specifically
01:25   Brawler4Ever   yeah
01:25   Brawler4Ever   the problem that I have with mashi is that he keeps coming to my defense
01:26   davy   That doesn't change the fact that he has a vote on you.
01:26   Brawler4Ever   he does?
01:26   davy   Actually, with his reasoning being destroyed, that should make him even more suspicious.
01:26   BlackDragonSlayer   Hmm. That Dudeman post could possibly be a misinterpretation of intention, though I'd have to read more into the context to be certain (as in, it would be helpful if he were here right now).
01:26   davy   dudeman I mean.
01:26   Brawler4Ever   last i saw, he was voting for dudeman
01:26   davy   not mashi
01:27   Brawler4Ever   yeah, dudeman is against me
01:27   Brawler4Ever   everything would be way more helpful if everybody was here
01:27   Brawler4Ever   and way more confusing
01:27   Brawler4Ever   i can see dudeman joining NoS's bandwagon against me
01:27   Brawler4Ever   intentionally, as a wolf
01:29   Brawler4Ever   you think that the guardian should come out immediately, davy?
01:29   davy   BlackDragonSlayer, are you reading into the context atm?
01:30   davy   Yes I still do.
01:30   BlackDragonSlayer   Not right now.
01:30   BlackDragonSlayer   I have to go soon; I'll probably do it later.
01:30   davy   Could you do that? I'd like to have an agreement before I go to sleep.
01:30   davy   The reading I mean.
01:31   BlackDragonSlayer   How many voted did Brawler have before Dudeman voted for him?
01:31   davy   1
01:31   davy   And Olimar voted soon thereafter.
01:31   Brawler4Ever   just nocturne
01:31   Brawler4Ever   yeah
01:31   davy   hey look, dudeman is posting!
01:32   davy   I wonder what he'll say.
01:32   BlackDragonSlayer   Nocturne/Dudeman/Olimar wolves trying to start a bandwagon?
01:32   davy   Not all of them obviously.
01:32   Brawler4Ever   i doubt olimar is a wolf
01:33   davy   I do think there is a wolf among them however.
01:33   BlackDragonSlayer   Hm. You seem to share a few opinions with Mashi...
01:33   Brawler4Ever   based solely on his latest post
01:33   davy   Olimar I also think is the least likeliest to be a wolf.
01:33   Brawler4Ever   i think he's just busy
01:33   BlackDragonSlayer   From Mashi, referring to Dudeman: "I dislike this post.  Your first post of substance is latching onto NocturneOfShadow's suspicion and for non-concrete reasoning."
01:33   Brawler4Ever   true
01:34   Brawler4Ever   not something a wolf would openly say to another wolf
01:34   Brawler4Ever   unless he was under really deep cover
01:34   davy   Indeed I do share a few opinions with Mashi.
01:36   Brawler4Ever   mashi is very good at this game, from what I can tell
01:36   davy   So, does either or both of you any bit interested in lynching dudeman?
01:37   Brawler4Ever   can't busy defending myself against NoS, who I am still fairly certain is a wolf.
01:37   Brawler4Ever   what's your opinion, davy?
01:37   Brawler4Ever   do you believe that he's a wolf?
01:37   davy   I'm not sure, but atm to me he's the likeliest player to be a wolf
01:37   Brawler4Ever   he, being NoS
01:37   davy   followed closely by dudeman.
01:38   BlackDragonSlayer   I'd consider it, depending on what he does or does not say.
01:38   Brawler4Ever   he's had it out for me since the beginning
01:38   davy   I'm actually considering lynching dudeman and leaving NoS for the vigi.
01:38   Brawler4Ever   none of his arguments come before Mashi's chat log
01:38   Brawler4Ever   why not vice versa?
01:39   davy   Nocturne's early behaviour doesn't really concern me. He starts all his games like that.
01:39   Brawler4Ever   does he? ok then.
01:39   Brawler4Ever   maybe history isn't so bad....
01:40   davy   It's a little too coincedental that you are also the player that he decides to put an actually clarified vote on.
01:40   BlackDragonSlayer   "I'm actually considering lynching dudeman and leaving NoS for the vigi." Hmm, that might be a good idea, actually.
01:40   davy   Our great overlord Mashi has arrived at NSM.
01:41   Brawler4Ever   act inconspicuous
01:41   Brawler4Ever   he must know nothing
01:41   Brawler4Ever   jk
01:41   davy   Why do you think that is a good idea BDS, and more importantly, a better one than lynching either of them?
01:42   BlackDragonSlayer   because it gets two suspicious players out of the way and is actually a fairly substantial d1 lynch compared to what is usually done
01:43   davy   01:38   Brawler4Ever   why not vice versa? - Regarding lynching and vigi'ing?
01:45   BlackDragonSlayer   Why would it matter, if two suspicious players die either way?
01:45   Brawler4Ever   because it's how they die
01:45   Brawler4Ever   if NoS is lynched, they won't know if he was wolved or vigi'ed
01:45   Brawler4Ever   unless we make a public request?
01:45   davy   Because I think the vigi can be swayed for a NoS vigi more easily than a Dudeman vigi
01:46   BlackDragonSlayer   Why?
01:46   davy   Of course, we would make it a public request
01:46   Brawler4Ever   what are the chances of him vigi'ing me instead?
01:46   Brawler4Ever   assuming me and NoS both survive, somehow
01:46   davy   Roughly the same of him being NoS or Olimar, I think.
01:46   Brawler4Ever   jk
01:46   Brawler4Ever   it's not important, just a funny thought
01:47   Brawler4Ever   yeah, there's not much on Dudeman atm
01:47   davy   NoS has been in the spotlight the entire game, has a case going against him that is less easily reverted and is generally a player that raises suspicion by every player.
01:48   davy   as for why I think the vigi would be  more likely to go for NoS.
01:48   Brawler4Ever   "and is generally a player that raises suspicion by every player." that could technically be used in his defense
01:48   Brawler4Ever   which he already has done
01:49   davy   How could that be used in his defence?
01:49   Brawler4Ever   since he's always suspicious, the fact that he is suspicious now is part of his personality

[close]

"I don't think this player is a wolf, but I am going to lynch him because I don't like the way he plays this game." That's a really bad human play, Bubbles. I know you can do better.

Pretty sure Bubbles never said that he was going to lynch you (correct me if I'm mistaken). This is a similar mindset that I had with FireArrow in Mashi's first chat log. Making mistakes is bad, but not lynchable. However, if they continue, they begin to become a concern, and that concern becomes a suspicion of intentionally making mistakes. Intentionally making mistakes would be, imo, very wolf-ish behavior.

[Bubbles]

Maybe here wasn't a second time, I think I misunderstood what you said before you posted that second log. I read it like the log took place a while ago and you were posting it now, but maybe not.

Brawler, I think he is referring to my post where I said I would've voted for Davy over Noc if I had gotten here in time last phase. And yeah, I would've. I've said this already, but I've got three players on my watch list: davy, brawler, and dudeman (not Noc). I didn't necessarily want to lynch them last phase, but if no other person came up I would've placed my vote. Brawler and dudeman are newer players and have an easier time making mistakes/drawing suspicion, so I decided on Davy.

Remember in the anonymous games when we used that chat that saved everything forever? How would your conversation have worked if it took place in that chatroom? I'm probably wrong, but I see the chat as a quick way to get your thoughts out and pm's for exclusive information.

[Mashi]

Sorry, I confused the number of mislynches this game with another game.  Regardless, I'll go over it so that you understand what I mean and I don't err.

We Don't Vigi:
Night 1:
3 Wolves 12 Humans

Day 1: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 11 Humans

Night 2:
3 Wolves 10 Humans

Day 2: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 9 Humans

Night 3:
3 Wolves 8 Humans

Day 3: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 7 Humans

Night 4:
3 Wolves 6 Humans

Day 4: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 5 Humans


Vigi vigis every Night:
Night 1:
3 Wolves 12 Humans

Day 1: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 11 Humans

Night 2: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 10 Humans

Day 2: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 8 Humans

Night 3: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 7 Humans

Day 3: - One kill by Humans
3 Wolves 5 Humans


So at Day 4 in the first scenario and Day 3 in the second scenario, Humans are in the same situation.  The difference being that the Humans had 4 kills in Scenario 1 and 5 in Scenario 2.  However, in Scenario 2, despite having more kills, you also have to note that two of the kills were made in Scenario 2 in a situation with 3 Wolves, 7 Humans and 10 Humans, respectively.  Whereas in Scenario 1, the comparative two kills during the Day Phases were 3 Wolves, 5 Humans and 7 Humans, respectively.  That is, despite having fewer kills to make, the Humans in Scenario 1 have a greater chance of hitting a Wolf based on random probability.


But that all aside, the Vigi should just make his/her best calls.

I disagree with some of your definitions of what an alliance is based on some examples you've provided, but we've argued enough; I doubt either of us is convincing the other, so I'll leave things at that.


That all aside, Bubbles, although I agree that it's odd for people to have been colluding, I don't think it's entirely incriminating in and of itself; I think the opposite in fact.  It would mean that you suspect Brawler4Ever and davy (and BlackDragonSlayer?) of forging logs together, which I feel isn't the case.  Based on davy's fervent disagreement with me regarding the alliance, it seems to me that he's sincerely pushing for a plan of action that he considers is beneficial to the Human Team, so I think he's Human.

[Olimar12345]

Okay guys, I've almost caught up with the topic (need to read through some of these logs still). I have a few hours free tonight, does anyone want to chat?

[Brawler4Ever]

in chat, but babysitting will make my activity there sporadic at best.

[FireArrow]

After thinking about it for a bit, an alliance might be extremely useful under the pretense that there is no master wolf. If anyone is seered green or blue, they're a confirmed human. Unless they can magically predict who's getting seered every night this would give us a growing alliance.

I'd suggest that the guardian starts the alliance simply because he's the least useful power role. Seer can confirm people and vigi is invaluable. The guardian is all prediction/luck based as thanks to the pierce, s/he can't protect important people.

To avoid counterclaiming, if and only if there are two guardian claims, one is lynched and the other is vigi'd. If the wolves wanna mess with it, they'd have to sacrifice someone, which number wise works out better for us.

If I missed something big (...like my first post) let me know, but I'm pretty confident in this atm.

[Maelstrom]

After thinking about it for a bit, an alliance might be extremely useful under the pretense that there is no master wolf. If anyone is seered green or blue, they're a confirmed human. Unless they can magically predict who's getting seered every night this would give us a growing alliance.

Dude. There's a wolf painter.