TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[Olimar12345]

I need to read through these logs and the thread again, but from what I see it does look like Brawler is overreacting a bit to the whole Fank-Noc thing, so I'll place a tentative vote on him.

Brawler4Ever

(At least, until I get to sit down and form a better opinion and suspicion list, in which case I may change my vote.)

[FireArrow]

Nocturne's behavior now is really similar to when he was the traitor awhile back, not sure how'd that translate to roles in this game. I really don't find Brawler that suspicious, given that hyperactivity really isn't wolfy day 1. His reaction to Noc incriminating him however is kinda concerning.

[Latios212]

That is quite a bit of text. I'm not quite going to vote him solely on that, though. Hmm....

[FireArrow]

What do you guys think about a Latios212 lynch? He's making very empty contributions yet is obviously active.

[Mashi]

While I think Brawler4Ever may have been a bit overdefensive regarding NocturneOfShadow's suspicion of him, I don't think his pressure post is anything incriminating; I explicitly told him to make one to push his suspicion.  I'm surprised by the backlash; Brawler4Ever has been giving me the impression that he seems Human.  He's been appearing in the chat regularly and is all the willing to discuss the game.  His points regarding NocturneOfShadow aren't so bad either, in my opinion.

I dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

Where has Brawler4Ever been posting to defend himself and attack others?  His two most recent posts are the only examples I've seen where he's posted a major defense and accusation, and the latter was instigated by me.

Why would Brawler4Ever be anxious to use powers?  He's going to be able to use his powers, if he has any, regardless of who dies so long as it's not himself.  You also realise that half the Players with powers are Humans, correct?

[Latios212]

Hey I'm trying to collect my thoughts, if you want to confront me, I'm in the chat room

[Bubbles]

I'm not feeling an alliance, because honestly what's the point? It'd be too difficult to set up with counterclaims and wolf painters/shamans, and a two person alliance with the sacrifice of the guardian just doesn't seem worth it to me. The vigi shouldn't be taking risky enough shots to hit the seer anyway.

I dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

Wait, isn't this a semi-reason not to lynch him? That's a 50/50 shot he's a human with a special power, not only a wolf. The only wolf role I could see being anxious to use their power would be Xerosic, while all of the special human roles would feel pressured because they don't know their partners.

Why is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?
Bubbles came to the same conclusion later; wolfing fank would increase the chance of people leaning toward lynching you, Nocturne. They would see fank's wolfing as a preemptive strike to stop them from focusing on you, thus allowing you (the wolf, presumably) to get out of the spotlight.

This isn't what I meant, but I probably worded my post weirdly. I saw fank's wolfing as a wolf attempt to make people look at Noc, but not one that would actually be followed through with suspicions on him. After a player calls someone out specifically and is then wolfed, of course everyone is going to look at the player they targeted. Not only does this put the spotlight on Noc, but it takes it off of other players. Honestly I'm thankful to the wolves for picking fank because it led to some actual conversation on Day 1, regardless of how useful the information actually is.

tldr: Fank's wolfing should not make Noc suspicious

ninja'd 4x woah

[mikey]

So much if wrong with brawlers defense, I'll stop at the library tomorrow so that I can participate better

[Mashi]

Hey guys, what's the link for the IRC?

What prompted you to ask this question?  Did you hear about a TWG IRC from some place?

Well, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

I mentioned this in the chat, but to reiterate, I don't like BlackDragonSlayer's mentioning the wolfing not being unexpected.  Nor do I like his stating the obvious, but it was only a minor suspicion of him and he's responded to my vote with relative ease and coolness.

Hey look guys, I'm not completely inactive this game!

Currently chatting with Brawler, chatlog will follow soon.

Anyway, I've just noticed this part of jub's post:

This implies he is thinking of lynching Mashi. Jub, I'd like to hear your reasoning for wanting to lynch Mashi.

I like davy's meticulousness and probing Jub3r7 for his opinion on me.  It's not something I wouldn't expect him to do as a Wolf, but it's a small point his humanity's favor for me.

So, Alliance strategy. The guardian should claim so that the Seer and the Vigi can claim to him. The guardian will most likely get wolf'd the next night phase, but with all the wolf powers that would block him anyway, I'd say that isn't too much of a big deal. The seer and the vigi will form an alliance without claiming to the topic. This ensures they won't hit the same target the same night phase. Also, if the seer gets a red result that player doesn't have to reveal himself to the topic, because the vigi can just take that player out the next night phase.

While I disagree with starting an alliance, I find his suggesting we do so to be Human.  From his next response disagreeing with my view on beginning an alliance, he seems to sincerely believe that an alliance would help the Humans.  However, I don't think he would have made the suggestion in the middle of the Day Phase as a Wolf for Human points.

I dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.

I dislike this post.  Your first post of substance is latching onto NocturneOfShadow's suspicion and for non-concrete reasoning.  As Bubbles and I mentioned, based on your reasoning, doesn't Brawler4Ever have a 50% chance of being a Special Role?  Further, why do you believe that only Players with powers will be very active?  Further still, you exaggerate Brawler4Ever's defenses and accusations, when he's only made one of each this game.

Do you have any other suspicions, Dudeman?  Or anyone you feel is Human?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

FireArrow. I don't like how easily he hopped on Mashi's vote for me, specifically quoted below.

Right now my biggest suspicion is BDS. His analysis of the wolfing seems more like something a wolf would say to look like a human then something a human would say to genuinely make insight. Mashi is a close second because his behavior mimics that of a game I played as his wolf partner over at LLF (aggressive start to day 1 then mellows out into discussion about activity.)

I'd prefer a BDS lynch as of right now, he makes a great day 1 lynch because:
-Wolfy behavior
-He generally acts extremely wolfy and always ends up getting lynched mid/late game, so if he is a human mislynching him now than inevitably doing so at a more critical time.

This- or at the very least the way it is worded- makes it seem like he's going for an easy lynch rather than one strictly good (one of his selling points for the lynch is that I'm probably going to be lynched later anyway, so if I'm a human, I should be lynched now), however, unlike Brawler's post, this post does not come across as one with good intentions.

[davy]

An alliance is unnecessary and wouldn't amount to much.

I'm not feeling an alliance, because honestly what's the point?

You already know I disagree with you on this point and I explained it earlier already.

Firstly, because this isn't an alliance game.

If games are not designed to be alliance games, that doesn't mean alliances can't be helpful (just think of Sauce is Pretty Coll). This point alone doesn't mean much.

Secondly, because even if we had a Role like the Guardian claim, any of the Wolves could counterclaim (e.g. Seer, for example) and force us to lose both a Guardian and a Seer.

It'd be too difficult to set up with counterclaims and wolf painters/shamans,

In that case, we will also kill a wolf, which means the number of mislynches we can make will increase from 3 to 4 and the number of correct lynches we have to make will decrease from 3 to 2, putting the wolves, who already have a disadvantage in numbers this game, on an even bigger disadvantage. Personally, I don't think the wolves will take that risk, especially considering fake claiming is something not to often done on this forum (outside from a certain few members).

Thirdly, alliances kill activity, so I would rather just not force one to happen in a game obviously designed to prevent them from forming easily.

I have the complete oposite experience with alliances regarding activity. Looking at the most active games by number of posts, the number one was a game that got so active because everyone was discussing wether the alliance was infiltrated or not. The top three most active games all had alliances, and 10 out of the top 16 (first page) games had them. Also, in all but one of the other 7 games alliances were completely impossible to form because either specials didn't know their role, or because there were no specials.

In this type of game, claims should be trusted based on whether you trust the Player, anyway.  Since there's no cardflip and it's difficult to establish an alliance, we won't know if a Special Role has been killed yet and therefore can't make accurate judgement for claims lacking a false claim.

Yes, unfortunately, there is already a dead player. However, if Fank was a special, the wolves won't know that either, and they have to risk losing one of their member which means they will be at a disadvantage.

The Seer should try to look Human and have strong reads (and should especially push Red seerings).

But even if the seer finds any reds, that player won't have any way of sharing it without sacrificing himself, which would be the same as when the seer would be counterclaimed. And I don't know about you, but I don't trust our seer to be able to create the lynch on the seer'd player other than sharing the result. If we want the seer to be of any use, that player must have a way to get the seer'd role killed, therefore we need an alliance.

Guardian should try to block a wolfing and confirm a Human (at that point, we can try to start an alliance).

I am not actually willing to depend on this. The chance of the guardian blocking a wolfing is much smaller than the chance of the guardian dying. I'd rather be sure the guardian is useful before that player dies (by setting up the alliance), that have a very small chance the guardian is useful and a big chance that that player dies before he/she can be useful.

and a two person alliance with the sacrifice of the guardian just doesn't seem worth it to me.

The guardian, who is pretty much a normal human that knows his role due to the sheer ammount of powers that get past guarding, the fact that the guardian can't self-guard and the fact that the only way the guardian becomes useful without sacrificing himself is if that player is lucky enough to hit the same player as the player that would be wolfed, seems like a pretty good sacrifice to me for creating an alliance.

Vigi, we can either have act independently or have vigis made by public vote, if we vigi at all that is.

If we vigi without alliance, we risk the vigi killing the seer (or the guardian). If we don't vigi, we lose additional mislynches (which is essentially what the vigi creates). If we vigi with an alliance we don't risk the vigi killing the seer and we won't lose our additional mislynches.

The vigi shouldn't be taking risky enough shots to hit the seer anyway.

If the vigi doesn't know who the seer is, any shot he takes risks hitting the seer. If you mean that he should not take any shot out of risking hitting the seer, than we lose additional mislynches.

[Brawler4Ever]

On the subject of alliances:

davy and I discussed possible setbacks, but decided not to share them, so that we wouldn't give the wolves a weapon to use in the future. But it's relevant to the current discussion, and since Mashi already posted the question that we had, I don't see any point in not posting it now.

The Remainder of our Chat Log

10:04   Brawler4Ever   i like the idea of an alliance, but i would think of a few ways that it could backfire
10:04   davy   Please enlighten me
10:04   Brawler4Ever   blues couldn't use their powers on night 1 anyway
10:04   davy   Yeah, but if fank was a blue that would suck.
10:04   Brawler4Ever   what if a wolf comes to the guardian as a seer? at the same time as the real seer?
10:05   Brawler4Ever   i've done it before
10:05   Brawler4Ever   it didn't work, but i was too late in my game
10:05   davy   Then the guardian can reveal both names and we can be sure one of them is a wolf.
10:05   Brawler4Ever   lose the seer, gain a wolf
10:05   davy   The wolves are far outnumbered in this game, so losing one of their members really hurts
10:05   Brawler4Ever   yeah, that's true
10:05   Brawler4Ever   hadn't thought of that
10:06   Brawler4Ever   how about this?
10:06   Brawler4Ever   we ask the guardian to come up, and a wolf comes up instead?
10:07   Brawler4Ever   nvm
10:07   davy   That's even better, we'd lose the guardian either way and we lynch a wolf at the cost of not having an alliance
10:07   Brawler4Ever   the seer could see the wolf on night 2
10:07   Brawler4Ever   if the guardian reveals him/herself in this day
10:07   davy   By the time the seer sees that the true guardian is already dead.
10:08   davy   So the seer won't get a chance to claim to that person.
10:08   Brawler4Ever   but so will the wolf, as you said
10:08   Brawler4Ever   i mean if both come out
10:08   Brawler4Ever   a wolf, and the real guardian
10:08   davy   Like I said, if a wolf counterclaims that wolf is dead, but we won't have an alliance.
10:08   Brawler4Ever   worth it
10:09   davy   If no wolf counterclaims, all wolfs will stay alive and we will have an alliance.
10:09   Brawler4Ever   i like the idea
10:09   Brawler4Ever   i can't think of anything else that could go wrong with it
10:09   Brawler4Ever   can you?
10:10   davy   Fank being one of the blues.
10:10   davy   That's something that can go wrong.
10:10   Brawler4Ever   lol
10:10   davy   But at this point, I think it is a risk we should take.
10:10   Brawler4Ever   1/12 chance
10:10   davy   Actually 3/12
10:10   davy   there are 3 specials.
10:10   Brawler4Ever   true
10:10   Brawler4Ever   i was thinking of fank being  the guardian, specifically
10:11   Brawler4Ever   yeah, 3/12
10:11   davy   Don't give the wolves any ideas.
10:11   Brawler4Ever   i say we don't post this part of the chat log
10:11   davy   Ok.
10:12   davy   Then I'll post the log minus the last part, explain the strategy and then grab some food.
10:12   Brawler4Ever   if you stop at your first comment at 10:04, it should be good
10:12   Brawler4Ever   "Damn, why didn't I think of this yesterday?"
10:12   Brawler4Ever   if you stop there, no harm should be done
10:13   Brawler4Ever   you'll post it?
10:13   davy   Yeah I will.
10:13   Brawler4Ever   sweeet
10:13   davy   I will also add the first part of your next post: 19:04   Brawler4Ever   i like the idea of an alliance
10:14   Brawler4Ever   lol our times are different
10:14   Brawler4Ever   forgot about that! xD
10:18   davy   Chatlog posted, going to eat. See you.
10:21   Brawler4Ever   cya

[close]

The conclusion to which we came is that, best case scenerio: we lose the Guardian (which can't be stopped because of the Flare Gun thing) but the Seer and Vigi can work together, in secret, vigi'ing wolves as they come along. They never have to go public in the forum, so they're at the same chance of being wolfed as any other human. This would give the humans a significant lead.

Mashi's point was "what happens in the event of a counter-claim by a wolf?" What if a wolf counter-claims Seer? We would lose 2 blues for one wolf, at best. My question is: is there any way around this? Or, another question, is it worth it?

As far as worth goes, the numbers don't add up. Let's say that there's 9 players, 3 are wolves, 3 are blues, 3 are human. That's 1/3 of the population as wolf. If we kill off 2 blues and 1 wolf, we get: 6 players, 2 are wolves, 1 is blue, and 3 are human. It's still a 1/3 chance, but the ratio of wolves:blues is now 2:1 instead of 1:1.

So. Im going to ask again, is there any way around this?

[Brawler4Ever]

On the subject of overreacting:

Nothing in my case against Nocturne has anything to do with fank. I had hoped that I made that perfectly clear. Apparently not, but whatever. My case against Nocturne has nothing to do with fank.

So much if wrong with brawlers defense, I'll stop at the library tomorrow so that I can participate better

Please do. It's literally the only thing that I've asked of you from the beginning.

brawler seems like a good vote to me so far, sorry if I'm rushing things cause I'm on mobile

Nocturne, just out of curiosity, what makes me a good vote?

[Maelstrom]

Keep in mind that the chance of the vigi hitting the seer is pretty close to the same as a guardian blocking a wolfing. But again, each blue power is countered by a wolf power. Two blues for a wolf would hurt us, especially if the wolves hit the vigi, but it may be worth it,  due to the sheer am.ount of humans in the game. It's a  risky call. I'm not sure whether I'm for or against it.

[Bubbles]

The individual wolf powers are essentially useless without a special human to use them on, so I can see why you think risking all the specials would be worth it. If all special humans die (or are discovered by the wolves, aka eventual death) that turns this game into a manhunt with a single wolf instakill, which I'm not interested in creating.