TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[Dude]

I fell asleep so I'll be on after work! Promise!

[davy]

Chatlog

18:23      *** davy joined #TWG
18:23   davy   Ok, now I'll actually say something, lol
18:23   Brawler4Ever   hey
18:29   davy   So, summary of what happend this game: people joking all over the place, firearrow not noticing how the blues work, fank saying noct deserves to be vigi'd before dying, BDS pointing that out, Mashi voting for BDS in response, Nocturne voting for you, jub voting for Nocturne, and finaly FireArrow voting for BDS for his analysis on the wolfing.
18:29   davy   That's it I think.
18:29   Brawler4Ever   that pretty much covers it
18:31   Brawler4Ever   still pretty sure fank was joking
18:31   davy   So outside of the inactives there are three players that have been acting suspicious enough to be lynched: Nocturne, BDS and FireArrow.
18:31   Brawler4Ever   but it's hard to tell
18:31   Brawler4Ever   and me, apparently.
18:32   Brawler4Ever   I wouldn't lynch FireArrow
18:32   davy   Fank didn't specify when nocturne deserved to be vigi'd
18:32   Brawler4Ever   he made an honest mistake
18:32   Brawler4Ever   that's why I think fank was joking
18:32   Brawler4Ever   he might not have been
18:33   Brawler4Ever   I'm totally open to that, but I see no reason from my point of view that he should be suspicious of nocturne
18:33   davy   The reason why I think he wasn't joking is that he meant that nocturne deserved to be vigi'd later in the game.
18:33   Brawler4Ever   then again, he was active in chat before he was wolfed.
18:33   Brawler4Ever   oh, you think that's what he meant? could have been
18:34   Brawler4Ever   does he just not like nocturne? xD
18:34   davy   No, but the main goal for the vigi is to not hit the blues.
18:34   Brawler4Ever   of course
18:34   davy   And nocturne is putting himself way to much into the spotlight to be blue imo.
18:35   Brawler4Ever   i'm not familiar with blue mentality
18:35   Brawler4Ever   in the several games i've played, i've never been a blue
18:35   Brawler4Ever   always either a wolf or a human
18:35   Brawler4Ever   although i had a resurrection staff once.
18:36   davy   That was in game of fate, right?
18:36   Brawler4Ever   i don't remember
18:36   Brawler4Ever   it was an early game in NSM
18:36   davy   Just looked it up, it was.
18:37   davy   That game was awesome.
18:37   Brawler4Ever   you're right!
18:37   Brawler4Ever   i had a 50/50 chance between pumpy and hugo
18:37   Brawler4Ever   i chose pumpy because he had been wolfed, rather than lynched
18:37   Brawler4Ever   good times
18:38   davy   Anyway, who are you thinking of lynching atm?
18:39   Brawler4Ever   no idea lol
18:39   Brawler4Ever   BDS seems like the most likely choice atm
18:39   Brawler4Ever   "[fank's death] was unexpected"
18:39   Brawler4Ever   what was he expecting?
18:40   Brawler4Ever   i'm seeing mashi's point more and more
18:40   davy   That's not what he said.
18:40   Brawler4Ever   you're right
18:40   Brawler4Ever   i just reread the post
18:41   davy   I can't say [fank's death]'s entirely unexpected
18:41   Brawler4Ever   "Well, I can't say that's entirely unexpected."
18:41   Brawler4Ever   the EXACT opposite of what I said
18:41   Brawler4Ever   good job, brain
18:41   davy   What is Mashi's point?
18:42   Brawler4Ever   the fact that BDS saw that fank's death was not "entirely unexpected"
18:43   davy   And the problem with that is?
18:43   Brawler4Ever   no idea. my head hurts now...
18:43   Brawler4Ever   too much thinking
18:43   Brawler4Ever   BDS "expected" fank to get wolfed
18:44   Brawler4Ever   possibly (from the wolves' point of view) to incriminate NoS
18:44   Brawler4Ever   if somebody is suspicious of a wolf, wolf that person to keep them quiet.
18:45   davy   Wait, why did no one notice that Bubbles also explained the fank wolfing?
18:45   davy   "Fanks death looks like the classic "he attacked someone and then died, let's lynch him!!" wolf play."
18:46   Brawler4Ever   probably because BDS implied it first? maybe?
18:47   davy   I guess.
18:47   Brawler4Ever   it's the same thing, though. isn't it?
18:47   Brawler4Ever   they're both making the same argument
18:48   davy   Yes, it is.
18:48   davy   Also, in jub's most recent post when explaining his vote he said: "Mashi can wait."
18:49   davy   Why would he want to lynch Mashi?
18:49   Brawler4Ever   lol
18:49   Brawler4Ever   you're good at details. I just gloss over stuff.
18:49   Brawler4Ever   but yeah]
18:50   Brawler4Ever   it sounds like jub wants to lynch mashi
18:50   davy   Indeed, but the question is why does he want that?
18:50   Brawler4Ever   no idea
18:50   Brawler4Ever   i hate it when people don't explain their reasoning
18:51   Brawler4Ever   "I'm going to lynch this guy. Enough said."
18:51   davy   That means we have got to ask him.
18:51   davy   I'll make a post.
18:51   Brawler4Ever   sounds good
18:53   Brawler4Ever   nocturne thinks latios might be a wolf
18:53   Brawler4Ever   maybe because of inactivity? he did check in, but that's it
18:54   davy   If all he did is checking in, then inactivity would be the only reason to suspect him.
18:54   Brawler4Ever   i agree
18:55   davy   But in that case, there are more players to be suspicious off (me for example).
18:55   Brawler4Ever   true
18:55   Brawler4Ever   it's a delicate balance
18:55   Brawler4Ever   between finding lurking wolves and just wolf-mongering
18:56   Brawler4Ever   latios has said one word ("Present") and Toby hasn't said anything
18:56   davy   Inactives are good candidates for vigi'ing, though.
18:57   Brawler4Ever   i agree
18:57   Brawler4Ever   which is why I say they're a last resort
18:57   Brawler4Ever   said*
18:59   davy   On another note, I was just thinking of possibilities for an alliance.
18:59   Brawler4Ever   that would be up to the blues, imo
19:00   davy   What do you think of the idea to have the guardian claim, connect the seer and the vigi, and then have the seer and the vigi opperate together without either of them claiming?
19:00   davy   We'd lose the guardian, but we give the vigi the ability to kill any red results without the seer having to claim.
19:01   Brawler4Ever   that would probably work
19:01   davy   Also, if the seer finds the herring, the herring can be the spokesperson for the alliance for a day.
19:01   Brawler4Ever   until they get wolfed?
19:02   davy   Untill the seer and the vigi gets wolfed?
19:02   Brawler4Ever   the herring
19:02   Brawler4Ever   without a guardian, there's no protection for the spokesman
19:03   davy   Yeah, that's why I said for a day.
19:03   Brawler4Ever   yeah, i was trying to confirm that lol
19:04   davy   Damn, why didn't I think of this yesterday?
19:04   Brawler4Ever   i like the idea of an alliance

[close]

So, Alliance strategy. The guardian should claim so that the Seer and the Vigi can claim to him. The guardian will most likely get wolf'd the next night phase, but with all the wolf powers that would block him anyway, I'd say that isn't too much of a big deal. The seer and the vigi will form an alliance without claiming to the topic. This ensures they won't hit the same target the same night phase. Also, if the seer gets a red result that player doesn't have to reveal himself to the topic, because the vigi can just take that player out the next night phase.

[Latios212]

aye I actually am here now, sorry was out BBQing with family and friends this weekend.

Is it announced when the piercing power is used?

but yeah I agree that with all the blocking the guardian probably won't be able to do much :/
I do see value in an alliance between the seer and vigi though, mostly to prevent them from targeting each other.

[SlowPokemon]

Is it announced when the piercing power is used?

Yes, it will be announced.

[Maelstrom]

but yeah I agree that with all the blocking the guardian probably won't be able to do much :/
I do see value in an alliance between the seer and vigi though, mostly to prevent them from targeting each other.

Possibly because the guardian can't guard himself.
Just a reminder to those who haven't read the rules. (It seems like there's been quite a few)

[Mashi]

An alliance is unnecessary and wouldn't amount to much.  Firstly, because this isn't an alliance game.  Secondly, because even if we had a Role like the Guardian claim, any of the Wolves could counterclaim (e.g. Seer, for example) and force us to lose both a Guardian and a Seer.  Thirdly, alliances kill activity, so I would rather just not force one to happen in a game obviously designed to prevent them from forming easily.

In this type of game, claims should be trusted based on whether you trust the Player, anyway.  Since there's no cardflip and it's difficult to establish an alliance, we won't know if a Special Role has been killed yet and therefore can't make accurate judgement for claims lacking a false claim.

The Seer should try to look Human and have strong reads (and should especially push Red seerings).  Guardian should try to block a wolfing and confirm a Human (at that point, we can try to start an alliance).  Vigi, we can either have act independently or have vigis made by public vote, if we vigi at all that is.

[davy]

I strongly disagree with you Mashi, and I would make a post discussing all off the points you made in your last post, but it's very late here so I am not capable of making such a post at this time.

I suggest the guardian decides for him/herself if he/she wants to claim or not. If we want to set up an alliance, we should try to do that fast.

[mikey]

Mashi acting like bird ftw

Current thoughts on the game: I'm not removing my vote on brawler...

Well, I can't say that's entirely unexpected. However, I also have to say that I believe that was a half-hearted attempt to incriminate Nocturne, as Fank apparently wanted Nocturne vigi'd. Nonetheless, this does not clear Nocturne either.

I was under the impression that fank was joking about Nocturne. Or he was a wolf-monger. It was too soon to tell.

I, personally, believe that a strong tactic for the wolves is to remain inactive throughout the game, remaining out of the spotlight. With that in mind, I vote that we lynch either Bubbles, davy, Jub3r7, or Toby. It's Day 1. On what else can we base our accusation?

For the four of you, I suggest that you speak now or forever hold your peace.

Besides, do we really want inactive players in the late game?

Brawler says this after that.

BDS is actually a pretty good day 1 hit considering 2 things he said jump out as suspicious.  Plus, with the chat logs, it doesn't seem much of a stretch for them to be partners.

No, we do not (it's very easy as a wolf to take advantage of people who don't vote to push a lynch that would otherwise not go through were more active players). If we don't have anybody else to lynch, that might be our best option.

Oh look they agree on a bad tactic

He probably wanted Nocturne vigi'd Night 2, then.

Brawler even says nothing about BDS is suspicious:

   Brawler4Ever   i personally don't see anything
   Brawler4Ever   lol
(from mashi/brawler chat log numero uno)

@davy
an alliance in this particular scenario really doesn't accomplish much because from my experience even if the wolves don't counterclaim the guardian will die making it 2 alliance members to 3 wolves.

also, given the startling lack of suspicion on me at this point the guardian should at least consider me as their target for tonight seeing as I'm almost always day 1 fodder, and if not, well...

[Maelstrom]

I have a bad feeling about this potential alliance. Mashi made some pretty solid points.
A wolf could easily counterclaim seer, and possibly vigi, because the phase change posts do not say whether someone was dead by wolfing or vigi. Additionally, it might be possible for a wolf to masquerade as a seer due to the fact that they have access to the wolf painter. Not to mention there is a wolf seer too. There are just so many ways for it to go wrong. Is it really worth the guardian for this?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'd prefer a BDS lynch as of right now, he makes a great day 1 lynch because:
-Wolfy behavior

ಠ_ಠ

Am I being too speculative for you all again?

-He generally acts extremely wolfy and always ends up getting lynched mid/late game, so if he is a human mislynching him now than inevitably doing so at a more critical time.

have you forgotten that there is a vigi

Mashi acting like bird ftw

Ehhh... I think Mashi is acting like usual when he's active.

[Brawler4Ever]

Oh look they agree on a bad tactic

Why is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?

Brawler even says nothing about BDS is suspicious:
   Brawler4Ever   i personally don't see anything
   Brawler4Ever   lol
(from mashi/brawler chat log numero uno)

First of all, the "lol" was in reference to Mashi's comment, "I asked you first!!!" I feel that that could very well be taken out of context. I honestly don't know why you included that here.
Second, he was asking me my opinion on BDS. At the time, I saw nothing wrong with his comment. Bubbles came to the same conclusion later; wolfing fank would increase the chance of people leaning toward lynching you, Nocturne. They would see fank's wolfing as a preemptive strike to stop them from focusing on you, thus allowing you (the wolf, presumably) to get out of the spotlight. Or, if you're not a wolf, we would make you a scapegoat and call for your lynching because fank knew "something" about you that led to his suspicions.
The thing that I have against this whole scenerio is that we have no idea why fank wanted you vigi'ed, Nocturne. I believe, as I've stated before, that it was a joke, like you being Psychic. What information could he possibly have on you that would cause him to sincerely believe that you were a wolf?

I stick with what I said before. I see nothing wrong with BDS's comment. It was worded weirdly, but it was not, in my opinion, a huge concern.

[Mashi]

I strongly disagree with you Mashi, and I would make a post discussing all off the points you made in your last post, but it's very late here so I am not capable of making such a post at this time.

I suggest the guardian decides for him/herself if he/she wants to claim or not. If we want to set up an alliance, we should try to do that fast.

Huh?  Mostly everything I stated in the post was factual!  When you're back up, what do you disagree with?

I think NocturneOfShadow's being contributive early on is a good sign and I'm willing to give him a Human lean for it, but it's anomalous behaviour regardless.

Why is lynching inactive players a bad tactic?

Well, for one thing, people shouldn't be inactive in the first place!  For another, lynching an inactive is an easy scapegoat for a Wolf to make if one of his/her Partners is gaining suspicion.  So ideally, people should be voting for whom they suspect most.

[Brawler4Ever]

NocturneOfShadows, I believe that you are a wolf.

fank was wolfed after accusing you. I believe this to be a very weak premise on which to base an accusation, so I'm not going to. It's everything after that with which I have a problem.

First, you accused me of being a wolf without reason. It was just "a good vote". I asked you, then, why? You blatantly ignored me. You gave no reason for me being a wolf until Mashi posted the chat log.

Then, you made your case; I was in league with BDS. BDS was trying to push blame on you so that you could wrongfully be lynched, and the wolves gain a greater lead. You're in opposition to this (not being a wolf, of course) but since I am a "partner" with BDS, you finally have a reason for your initial suspicion. You misquoted me so that I would look like I was laughing away any concern about BDS. You insisted that the idea of lynching inactives was "a bad tactic," but never explained why. It was just important to you that there was another connection between myself and BDS.

The problem with this is that you are twisting facts to suit theories, not creating theories to suit facts. In your mind, I am a wolf, and the reasons behind this suspicion can come later. This is manipulative. This is something a wolf would do.

So, Nocturne, I believe that you are a wolf.

Another chat log

17:10      *** Brawler4Ever joined #TWG
17:10   Brawler4Ever   hey
17:11   Mashi   hello
17:11   Brawler4Ever   what dose "Mashi acting like bird ftw" mean?
17:11   Brawler4Ever   does*
17:12   Mashi   Bird is one of our TWC Players.
17:12   Mashi   And probably the best Player on NSM.
17:12   Brawler4Ever   he doesn't like alliances or something? I'm not familiar with him
17:15   Mashi   I think NocturneOfShadow was just referring to my analysis, but idk
17:15   Brawler4Ever   im going to be completely honest, I think nocturne is a wolf
17:17   Mashi   Why's that?
17:17   Brawler4Ever   several reasons
17:17   Brawler4Ever   first, he accused me without any reason
17:18   Brawler4Ever   not a big deal
17:18   Brawler4Ever   but then I asked him why
17:18   Brawler4Ever   no reply
17:18   Brawler4Ever   then you posted the chat log, and he made his case
17:18   Brawler4Ever   apparently I'm in league with BDS, according to him
17:19   Brawler4Ever   his argument against me was very manipulative, imo
17:19   Mashi   Hmm.
17:19   Mashi   You should pressure him in the topic!
17:19   Brawler4Ever   i did
17:20   Brawler4Ever   it's right above your latest post
17:20   Mashi   That felt to me more that you were defending yourself than anything.
17:20   Brawler4Ever   ah
17:20   Mashi   NocturneOfShadow probably doesn't feel threatened of being lynched or of gaining suspicion based on your remark.
17:20   Brawler4Ever   you meant post what i just said in the topic
17:20   Mashi   Yup!
17:21   Brawler4Ever   i've been planning to
17:21   Brawler4Ever   just organizing my thoughts
17:22   Brawler4Ever   i'll do it sometime tonight

[close]

[mikey]

A huge overreaction just makes you look more suspicious...
I can't make well thought out posts on a phone, so too bad

[Dudeman]

I dunno, I have some bad feelings about Brawler4Ever. From my experience in the horribly inactive TWG LXXX: Avengers, the players with the most power are the most active, as they want a reason to use their power. I was Ultron and was looking for any chance to shift blame to someone else. Latios had a death-vigi and was pretty much tied with me for most vocal player. Brawler has been posting left and right to defend himself or attack someone, and I'm interpreting it as an anxiousness to use whatever powers he has and soon. I felt the same way.