TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[Jub3r7]

Brawler, is there any reason you don't suspect me that much any more compared to Mashi before I even defended myself? I'm in the chat now, by the way!

[Maelstrom]

Crap. I was going to vote and then I realized I was two minutes late.
I would have voted for Mashi anyway, just because Bralwer brought up some really good points. For one, he has been actively involved in every single lynch so far. He's just too strong of a presence to ignore, and he has had many, many opportunities for manipulation.

[Dude]

There's still another day.

[Maelstrom]

Woops.
Mashi

[Jub3r7]

Mashi's not a wolf

[Maelstrom]

Mashi's not a wolf

How so?
Please explain your reasoning.

[Jub3r7]

how many reasons do you want?

[Maelstrom]

how many reasons do you want?

Any/all.
Use actual logic, and you'll convince me.

[Jub3r7]

Here's three reasons to start out since you didn't give me a number.
1. He stopped the bandwagon on brawler4ever. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg296550#msg296550
2. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297179#msg297179 – seems human in this chat
3. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297386#msg297386 – Seems even more human in this one; every argument made against him, he responded to very well, almost likes he's a wolf MASTERMIND at coming up with defense. Or maybe... maybe he's being honest?

I've been wrong about Mashi before, due to - wait for it - confirmation bias! So when I went through the thread and read every post of the players that are still alive and more, I accounted for that and still came up with the same result.

Literally just read his posts if you need actual logic. Or are you afraid of logic, since Mashi is apparently so good at being sensible that you guys believe he could make you think the sky was green?
Here's a pastebin with a link to most of his posts. You can ignore the earlier posts since most of that is arguing with davy.

[Jub3r7]

Note: Not all original content.

4. If Mashi were a wolf, why would he switch his vote off of Dudeman? You might think: Because it would be suspicious that he didn't change his vote when it was only supposed to be a pressure vote. However: Mashi already explained that if Dudeman was unable to give a sufficient explanation, then he would have kept his vote there.
5. You: But he voted latios right before Olimar did, and didn't give his explanation as to why he suspected latios and maelstrom.
    A. He was discussing in the chat log who the wolves might be, most likely 2/5 people; prior to stating that list, he said his two preferences of those five people. Then Olimar went along with it.
    B. His suspicion of Olimar was strange? Look at this way: Mashi says he is thinking about a Latios or Maelstrom lynch. Olimar decides to vote Latios. Mashi votes Latios, then Olimar votes Latios, then Latios gets lynched. Then Olimar uses this as a reason to suspect Mashi, and I'm paraphrasing here: 'Why did you reverse bandwagon my vote? I don't think Latios was a good lynch.' See what's weird about that? It feels contrived, he votes Latios, and then suspects someone else for voting the same person, as if it was unexpected, even though Mashi brought up the idea in the first place. Sure, it could be a bad human play on Olimar's part, but Mashi's suspicion of Olimar is not unusual.
6. Why would Mashi wolf Bubbles, even though Bubbles humanread him? I talked to Bubbles in the chat and I can confirm that he did humanread Mashi. They both humanread each other and I had no idea why; apparently they agreed with each other's reads.
7. Why would Mashi argue with davy about setting up an alliance if he believed it to be detrimental to the human team? "So he looks more human as a wolf!" Actually, if you were a wolf, you could be silent or ambivalent about it (kinda like Maelstrom) to allow the guardian to claim. Or, being a proactive player, he could even support the alliance under the guise of believing it to be helpful to the human team even if he believed otherwise.

[Jub3r7]

If I change my vote from Maelstrom it'll either be on Dude or Yugi.

[Brawler4Ever]

1. He stopped the bandwagon on brawler4ever. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg296550#msg296550

Stopped is an incredibly strong word. The bandwagon consisted of 2 players that didn't look too deeply into the subject. I give Mashi credit for agreeing with my point of view, specifically stating  that my case against Nocturne... I forget the exact words and I can't find it again. Something about making sense. Not entirely sure, but it doesn't matter. In terms of my case against Nocturne, Mashi agreed with my point of view.

2. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297179#msg297179 – seems human in this chat
3. http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=7230.msg297386#msg297386 – Seems even more human in this one; every argument made against him, he responded to very well, almost likes he's a wolf MASTERMIND at coming up with defense. Or maybe... maybe he's being honest?

Seeming human is a wolf's job. If they can't "seem human," then there would be no TWG. Mashi has used perfect logic and reason in all of his posts; that's what makes my accusation so difficult. But the game is not separated into humans-use-reason and wolves-don't. Wolves can use logic for their purposes just as easily as a human could.

I've been wrong about Mashi before, due to - wait for it - confirmation bias! So when I went through the thread and read every post of the players that are still alive and more, I accounted for that and still came up with the same result.

Literally just read his posts if you need actual logic. Or are you afraid of logic, since Mashi is apparently so good at being sensible that you guys believe he could make you think the sky was green?
Here's a pastebin with a link to most of his posts. You can ignore the earlier posts since most of that is arguing with davy.

Again, 
I'm not afraid of logic. I'm using logic in the same way that he is. If Mashi is a wolf, then he has been part of every lynch so far. He has been a Wolf MASTERMIND (your words, not mine) working behind the scenes to ensure that no wolves are in danger during the Day.
If he's human, then I'm making a huge mistake. Oh well. My instinct tells me that he's a wolf, and I'm going with it (using logic and reason to support my intuition). That's what the game is all about. You're using reason and logic to defend him. He's using reason and logic to defend himself. This creates dialogue, and we can debate and discuss everything as it comes.

4. If Mashi were a wolf, why would he switch his vote off of Dudeman? You might think: Because it would be suspicious that he didn't change his vote when it was only supposed to be a pressure vote. However: Mashi already explained that if Dudeman was unable to give a sufficient explanation, then he would have kept his vote there.

Right. Maybe others see this as wolfish, but I don't. Mashi's actions could just as well be used by a human as a wolf. I don't see anything suspicous with his accusation against dudeman. Mashi was completely honest and open in his accusation with dudeman. It was only to make dudeman talk, and it made dudeman talked. This has relation to Mashi's role, as far as I can see.

5. You: But he voted latios right before Olimar did, and didn't give his explanation as to why he suspected latios and maelstrom.
    A. He was discussing in the chat log who the wolves might be, most likely 2/5 people; prior to stating that list, he said his two preferences of those five people. Then Olimar went along with it.
    B. His suspicion of Olimar was strange? Look at this way: Mashi says he is thinking about a Latios or Maelstrom lynch. Olimar decides to vote Latios. Mashi votes Latios, then Olimar votes Latios, then Latios gets lynched. Then Olimar uses this as a reason to suspect Mashi, and I'm paraphrasing here: 'Why did you reverse bandwagon my vote? I don't think Latios was a good lynch.' See what's weird about that? It feels contrived, he votes Latios, and then suspects someone else for voting the same person, as if it was unexpected, even though Mashi brought up the idea in the first place. Sure, it could be a bad human play on Olimar's part, but Mashi's suspicion of Olimar is not unusual.

I disagree with it being unusual. Mashi chose latios rather than Maelstrom. Olimar also chose latios rather than Maelstrom. It was a bad case of miscommunication. As I've said (and Olimar has said) the case against latios was weak. The only reason that Olimar was accusing latios was because of his simultaneous inactivity in TWG and activity outside of TWG. It was very strange. Now that I think about it, it's just as likely that he was a wolf as a Special, using that logic. But I digress. Olimar was uncomfortable about the lynch. He had, essentially, sentenced someone to death for the sole reason of being inactive in TWG. There are several players here that could fall under that category, but latios was the one lynched. And it was, in a large part, due to Olimar.
I believed this to be an accident when the time came. I believed it to be human error. But the manner in which Mashi went after Olimar raised several alarms. I didn't realize this until after I arrived home for my trip, otherwise I would have actively participated. As it turned out, Mashi won the KITB and here we are.

6. Why would Mashi wolf Bubbles, even though Bubbles humanread him? I talked to Bubbles in the chat and I can confirm that he did humanread Mashi. They both humanread each other and I had no idea why; apparently they agreed with each other's reads.

I answered this in a previous post. There is no doubt that Bubbles townread me, dudeman, and davy as wolves, while simultaneously reading Mashi as a human. He made that very clear. Why would Mashi kill him, being a wolf? My answer: so that he could make the argument that he, as a wolf, would never have killed Bubbles. Mashi couldn't be a wolf because he killed his supporter. Except that killing Bubbles wasn't really a sacrifice, if the greater objective was achieved; more human credit. Mashi even used Bubbles' death as an excuse of his humanity already. I don't have the link on me, it's in the post with all of the colors with latios and Olimar.

7. Why would Mashi argue with davy about setting up an alliance if he believed it to be detrimental to the human team? "So he looks more human as a wolf!" Actually, if you were a wolf, you could be silent or ambivalent about it (kinda like Maelstrom) to allow the guardian to claim. Or, being a proactive player, he could even support the alliance under the guise of believing it to be helpful to the human team even if he believed otherwise.

My problem with Mashi and the alliance was that he shot it down immediately and didn't look back on it at all until it was "too late." Unless a wolf has a fairly good chance of being able to claim and become part of the alliance, an alliance is basically a wolf's worst enemy. Of the 3 games of TWG that I have played (all 5+ years ago) every single one was decided by an alliance. If the alliance worked, the wolves lost. If it didn't, the wolves won. Any wolf would want to stop an alliance from forming.
Could Mashi have suggested that an alliance work? Yes, that was definitely an option. And Mashi could probably figure out how to bring it down from the inside; I have no doubt of his capabilities. The question became, was it worth the risk? If the alliance worked, it would leave the vigi and Seer working together without ever having to claim to the thread. That is incredibly powerful. From what occurred, it appears that Mashi decided to take the "it's not worth the risk" route, and we never had an alliance, largely because of it.

[Brawler4Ever]

Spoiler

19:55      *** Brawler4Ever joined #TWG
19:55   Brawler4Ever   hey
19:57   Brawler4Ever   for the record, my entire suspicion with you resides in your last minute vote against Olimar
19:57   Brawler4Ever   that, plus general inactivity that can be seen in most of the players
20:40      --- Jub3r7 is away (Auto away)
20:41   Brawler4Ever   if you ever want to talk, I'll be here
20:50      --- Jub3r7 is back
20:50   Jub3r7   IM HERE
20:50   Jub3r7   I'm not really that concerned that you suspect me, I'm mostly concerned that you suspect mashi
20:50   Jub3r7   also im playing epicmafia at the very second
20:53      *** Mashi joined #TWG
20:53      +++ ChanServ has given owner to Mashi
20:53      +++ ChanServ has given op to Mashi
20:53   Mashi   Jerry!!!
20:54   Brawler4Ever   hey
20:54   Mashi   Jub3r7 Brawler4Ever
20:54   Mashi   Hello!
20:54   Brawler4Ever   just posted a reply to your posts, jub
20:54   Brawler4Ever   it's another long one, though
20:55   Mashi   Jerry, I think the Wolves are between maelstrom and Yugi at this point.
20:55   Mashi   I would be fine with a lynch on either.
20:55   Mashi   I'll PM you a log with Doodle about why I feel like he's Human; he seems really nonchalant to me.
20:56   Mashi   And nonchalant because he doesn't want to put in the work to find Wolves is why, I feel.
20:56   Brawler4Ever   jub is playing epicmafia atm
20:56   Brawler4Ever   he said that right before you came in
20:57   Mashi   Jub3r7 x EpicMafia
21:07   Jub3r7   I think it's a ♠ relationship??? epicmafia is so cruel
21:07   Jub3r7   XD
21:08   Brawler4Ever   never played it. is it good?
21:17   Jub3r7   if you like death, lies, and feeling bad about yourself, I highly recommend it
21:17   Brawler4Ever   lol
21:17   Brawler4Ever   I think I'll pass xD
21:17   Jub3r7   hahaha
21:17   Jub3r7   i dont know if it's that bad, but
21:17   Jub3r7   you probably will feel bad about yourself
21:18   Brawler4Ever   for killing random people, or what?
21:19   Jub3r7   for making the wrong decisions or stupid decisions and then being responsible for losing the ga,e
21:19   Jub3r7   *game
21:19   Brawler4Ever   lol
21:20   Jub3r7   it /will/ happen
21:20   Brawler4Ever   how often, though?
21:56   Jub3r7   *shrugs*
21:59   Brawler4Ever   yeah, weird question.
22:11   Brawler4Ever   I'm going to bed
22:11   Brawler4Ever   have a good night, all

[close]

Random chat log

[Mashi]

I've told Jerry a few times already, but I'm fairly certain that the last Wolf (if not both) is between maelstrom and Yugi.  Given how inactive Yugi is, if he's a Wolf, we can just lynch him later.

I'm voting for maelstrom now though, since I'll probably be busy the rest of the day.

[Brawler4Ever]

Maelstom, because PLOT TWIST