TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[SlowPokemon]

Roughly eight hours until Day Two ends.

[Maelstrom]

Oh yeah. Nothing happens when B4E's not around.
Any ideas? Anybody?

[Bubbles]

Brawler, it makes sense that FA was wolfed and not vigi'd because there wasn't much of an opinion on him. Keeping players in the game that people have strong feelings about makes it easier to hide an innocent looking wolf or push a mislynch. I'm really hoping the vigi didn't just take a shot in the dark, since Davy was a legit player to kill instead.

I'd like to hear more from Dudeman. He hasn't contributed much of anything from what I've seen, even though he made that wall of text last day phase. It wasn't much of a look at his feelings as it was a recap of everything that's happened; basically just a list of facts. Earlier to that post he suggested lynching brawler for possibly being a special, which raised my suspicions on him. Sure it could've been a rookie mistake, but I can't just ignore that. I said last phase that I was going to give him a little more time but with this quiet spell I've lost my patience lol
Summary: he's been fairly quiet and that's a strategy for a newbie wolf

Activity seems to have died down for a bit. Let's spark a discussion, shall we? Bubbles. Why are you a human and who are you suspicious of (I'd also like other players to answer this as well)? I will considering changing my vote if your answers are informative enough.

I can't remember the last time I was targeted, this is kinda exciting I'm not much of a player for analyzing myself, but I'd love to hear why you think I'm a human or a wolf and I'll answer accordingly.

Slow, how does the piercing power work exactly? Does it only work if the targeted player was guarded? If yes, do the wolves pick the player or just choose to use the power and you target the guarded player for them?

[SlowPokemon]

Once again, the Piercing power isn't a conscious decision. If the Wolves attack someone who is also being guarded, they get a free kill.

[Jub3r7]

I'm thinking Olimar first, although I'm neutral on Bubbles at the moment.

[Maelstrom]

Welp. This is news to me. Looks like the guardian was bordering on useless. That alliance might have been a good idea after all. I mean, it still could have ended in disaster, but losing the guardian isn't as bad as I thought.

[Jub3r7]

The piercing power is supposed to make it harder for us to form an alliance, not the other way around.

[Brawler4Ever]

Roughly eight hours until Day Two ends.

o.0 That was fast.

Once again, the Piercing power isn't a conscious decision. If the Wolves attack someone who is also being guarded, they get a free kill.

So if I'm understanding this correctly, the Guardian is basically powerless right now. Anybody that he Guards will get wolfed anyway, and it won't be until after it is used that he can actually Guard someone. He should still Guard people, of course, because it's better to use up the Flare Gun now rather than never Guard anybody throughout the entire game, but that's still a pretty slim chance anyway.

If the Flare Gun is ever used, we can know that the Guardian is still alive (since he can't Guard himself). Unless, of course, the vigi accidentally gets to him on the same night. But we can worry about that later.

[Maelstrom]

I'd like to hear more from Dudeman. He hasn't contributed much of anything from what I've seen, even though he made that wall of text last day phase. It wasn't much of a look at his feelings as it was a recap of everything that's happened; basically just a list of facts. Earlier to that post he suggested lynching brawler for possibly being a special, which raised my suspicions on him. Sure it could've been a rookie mistake, but I can't just ignore that. I said last phase that I was going to give him a little more time but with this quiet spell I've lost my patience lol
Summary: he's been fairly quiet and that's a strategy for a newbie wolf

I agree with you on this a bit on this. It seems a little odd, but I'd like to hear more from Dudeman before making any rash decisions.

Note that the guardian protects against vigis, B4E.

[Brawler4Ever]

The piercing power is supposed to make it harder for us to form an alliance, not the other way around.

davy's original thought process was that the Guardian is basically useless this game anyway. Why not sacrifice him, if it can get the vigi and Seer to secretly work together? It was rejected for separate reasons, though. It would be nice to have an alliance, but it was inherently flawed, so it would never have worked.

Note that the guardian protects against vigis, B4E.

I'm saying that the Guardian himself gets vigi'd, not the Guardian's target. It's not really an issue, though. It's roughly a 1/10 chance right now that it happens? probably less, if the math is actually done.

[Brawler4Ever]

I'm going to go ahead and safety on Brawler4Ever.  I was hoping to do some research on the other players, but I just haven't had time. And I doubt that I'll have anymore time today.

[Mashi]

I had presumed that SlowPokemon made the piercing a one-use active (rather than passive) ability on the Wolves's side, but too late to change it now, so oh well.  If that's the case, then the Guardian actually may as well be used as an alliance head, but it might be too late for that.  Sorry, davy!  That was my fault.

What if either davy or FireArrow was a blue? What if the wolves had Seen one of them on Night 1 and wolfed one of them the following Night? There's 4 blues in the game (Seer, Guardian, Vigi, and Psychic) so it wouldn't be that unlikely. It'd be a 1/3 chance for either (15 players - 3 wolves = 12 remaining players, 4 blues / 12 players = 1/3 chance). I'm fairly certain that neither was the Guardian, since both were on board for an alliance. But one of the them being a blue is the only thing that makes sense to me with the death of FireArrow.

Very Human post; it's analytical and reflects that Brawler4Ever is thinking about something he finds confusing.  In addition to that, he mistakenly believes that Wolves had a seering Night 1 and I'm doubting he did so intentionally.

I share Bubbles concerns regarding Dudeman, so I'll throw on a vote for pressure.  I think I saw that he joined the IRC at some point yesterday, but I didn't catch him in time to converse with him.  I would like to hear more from him, particularly why he found me suspicious Day 1, but left his reasoning unexplained when I asked him.

[Yugi]

@BDS, can't really give much proof for my humanity since I haven't been in the game much, but I'd say that my not knowing of the strongarm mechanic points to my favour. I'll try and see if I can get in chat later today.

[Olimar12345]

I really don't want to have to safety this time around. : /

I can't really make sense of the davy/FA combo, but if one of them was wolf'd and the other was vigi'd, then the vigilante among us suspected one of these two players as a wolf. Both of these players were in support of an alliance, so maybe that had something to do with it? I'm stretching pretty far here, I know.

In the chat : /

[Latios212]

I can't guarantee I'll be back by phase end but I don't want to accidentally not vote like last time. And I don't have time to think/explain thoroughly :/

Jub3r7