TWG LXXXI: Pokémon X & Y

[mikey]

Mael, I gotta be honest, what you said didn't really make sense

[Jub3r7]

WHY DOES TIME HAPPEN WITHOUT ME

[Olimar12345]

Shit, no time before the end of the phase. Safety on Olimar12345.

[Maelstrom]

Mael, I gotta be honest, what you said didn't really make sense

I apologize. I just don't buy your lousy counter-arguments.

[SlowPokemon]

Player: Number of votes (people who voted for player)

Dudeman: 1 vote (Mashi)
Latios212: 1 vote (FireArrow)
Brawler4Ever: 1 votes (NocturneOfShadow)
NocturneOfShadow: 5 votes (Dudeman, Maelstrom, Brawler4Ever, davy, Jub3r7)
Olimar12345: 1 vote (Olimar12345)
FireArrow: 1 vote (BlackDragonSlayer)
Toby: 1 vote (Dude)

People who abstained from voting and have received a Phantom: Latios212, Bubbles, Toby

Day One is over. NocturneOfShadow is dead. It is now Night Two. Night Two will end on Wednesday, July 8, 2015, at 9:00 PM EST.

Players:
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. Dudeman
3. Latios212 (Phantom x1)
4. Maelstrom
5. Brawler4Ever
6. NocturneOfShadow
7. Olimar12345
8. FireArrow
9. Bubbles (Phantom x1)
10. Mashi
11. davy
12. Dude
13. fank009
14. Jub3r7
15. Toby (Phantom x1)

Please note that all players with special powers, including Lysandre (Wolf Painter), Celosia (Wolf Shaman), Xerosic (Wolf Roleblocker), Sycamore (Guardian), Diantha (Seer), and AZ (Vigi), may use their powers beginning this phase, assuming that they are still alive.

[Latios212]

Crap, I missed phase end by a few minutes.

I would have voted Noc because I wasn't going to accuse Brawler just for his activity and his posts actually make more sense than Noc's.

[Bubbles]

Whoops, didn't know the phase ended at 9 and not at 11!! For the record, I would not have voted for Noc; I'm still putting together my thoughts as to why though

[Maelstrom]

Toby hasn't even posted once.
Is he even here?

[Maelstrom]

Uh, guys?
Toby hasn't been online since the 29th of June.

[Bubbles]

He posted on the 29th that he still wanted to be in .-.

[Maelstrom]

But I don't think he's logged on since then.

[Mashi]

Sorry for my absence all of today; I had to focus my time on another TWG for a bit and was busy the rest of the day until now.

If games are not designed to be alliance games, that doesn't mean alliances can't be helpful (just think of Sauce is Pretty Coll). This point alone doesn't mean much.

Generally, if games are designed to not be alliance games, there are factors that hinder an alliance from being effective.

In that case, we will also kill a wolf, which means the number of mislynches we can make will increase from 3 to 4 and the number of correct lynches we have to make will decrease from 3 to 2, putting the wolves, who already have a disadvantage in numbers this game, on an even bigger disadvantage. Personally, I don't think the wolves will take that risk, especially considering fake claiming is something not to often done on this forum (outside from a certain few members).

This is incorrect.  Regardless of whether a Wolf is lynched or not, in this game, Humans lose on the 5th mislynch.

I have the complete oposite experience with alliances regarding activity. Looking at the most active games by number of posts, the number one was a game that got so active because everyone was discussing wether the alliance was infiltrated or not. The top three most active games all had alliances, and 10 out of the top 16 (first page) games had them. Also, in all but one of the other 7 games alliances were completely impossible to form because either specials didn't know their role, or because there were no specials.
Yes, unfortunately, there is already a dead player. However, if Fank was a special, the wolves won't know that either, and they have to risk losing one of their member which means they will be at a disadvantage.

If you look at NSM's most active games, practically none were alliance games.  While it's true that NSM's most active game was an alliance game, it also happened to be NSM's only game that was more than 50 pages, which is completely anomalous, whereas active games (20+ pages) are consistently almost always non-alliance games.  I would attribute the game being active due to unique circumstances and the Players rather than anything about the design; it's incredibly conspicuous that the game was an outlier.

But even if the seer finds any reds, that player won't have any way of sharing it without sacrificing himself, which would be the same as when the seer would be counterclaimed. And I don't know about you, but I don't trust our seer to be able to create the lynch on the seer'd player other than sharing the result. If we want the seer to be of any use, that player must have a way to get the seer'd role killed, therefore we need an alliance.

If the Seer gets a Red result, the Seer needs to convince people to lynch that person without outing the result.  It's a novice level way of playing to claim and then have everyone play follow the leader.  A good Seer is able to convince people that his/her Human reads are Humans and his/her Wolf reads are Wolves.  It's noteworthy anyway that there's a Wolf Painter and Miller in the game to skew results as well, so Red results aren't final, they should only be used as a general guide.

I am not actually willing to depend on this. The chance of the guardian blocking a wolfing is much smaller than the chance of the guardian dying. I'd rather be sure the guardian is useful before that player dies (by setting up the alliance), that have a very small chance the guardian is useful and a big chance that that player dies before he/she can be useful.
The guardian, who is pretty much a normal human that knows his role due to the sheer ammount of powers that get past guarding, the fact that the guardian can't self-guard and the fact that the only way the guardian becomes useful without sacrificing himself is if that player is lucky enough to hit the same player as the player that would be wolfed, seems like a pretty good sacrifice to me for creating an alliance.

Did you calculate the statistic?  Because the chances of a Guardian making a successful guard (where number of players alive is n and number of Wolves alive should be a bit less than 1/(n-1).  The chances of the Guardian being killed is 1/(n-w).
I decided to simulate the chances of a Guardian making a successful block on Excel.  I assumed 13 Players were alive, 3 of them were Wolves, 1 was a Guardian, the Wolves don't wolf themselves, and the Guardian can't guard himself/herself.  Based on a sample size of 15315, 1153 successful guards were made, which is about 7.523% successful guards!  With those same assumptions, the chances of the Guardian being wolfed is 10%, so getting a successful guard in certainly isn't out of the question.

If we vigi without alliance, we risk the vigi killing the seer (or the guardian). If we don't vigi, we lose additional mislynches (which is essentially what the vigi creates). If we vigi with an alliance we don't risk the vigi killing the seer and we won't lose our additional mislynches.
If the vigi doesn't know who the seer is, any shot he takes risks hitting the seer. If you mean that he should not take any shot out of risking hitting the seer, than we lose additional mislynches.

With no alliance, we risk the Seer being killed by wolfing regardless.  Assuming the Seer and Vigi don't play poorly, the Vigi won't be vigi'ing the Seer anyway.
Your statement about losing mislynchs is false.  If the Vigi vigis every Night Phase and we mislynch every Day Phase, then by the time we reach Day 3, there will be 3 Wolves and 5 Humans remaining, with having been made 2 lynches and 2 vigis.  However, if we don't vigi at all, then by Day 5, there will be 3 Wolves and 4 Humans remaining, with having been made 4 lynches.  The former will technically give us an extra kill for the Human, but at the risk of missing Day Phases and a bit complicated statistical stuff regarding normal Day Phase and vigi Wolf-kill probabilities.  The latter gives us the maximum number of Day Phases, but causes our Vigi to do nothing.

Also going to end by saying that I have some pretty high suspicions on Mashi as well, but I'll wait until Day 2 to look into it.

Why?


I'll look for a replacement for Toby.

SlowPokemon, since you've been gone a while, I wanted to inform you (just in case) that Phantoms no longer add .01 votes onto people and are used only as a tool for if the Host feels a replacement is necessary.

[mikey]

It really is inescapable

[Jub3r7]

I /think/ I read all of day 1 just now and I feel decent with the Nocturne lynch. I'd love to hear Bubbles reasoning on the contrary, though.

The problem with this is that you are twisting facts to suit theories, not creating theories to suit facts. In your mind, I am a wolf, and the reasons behind this suspicion can come later. This is manipulative. This is something a wolf would do.

actually, this is a common flaw with people in general and not just wolves. not saying I disagree with you, though.

On the subject of alliances:

davy and I discussed possible setbacks, but decided not to share them, so that we wouldn't give the wolves a weapon to use in the future. But it's relevant to the current discussion, and since Mashi already posted the question that we had, I don't see any point in not posting it now.

>_>


On an unrelated note, I've just gained the insight that I'm easily swayed in reasonable-sounding arguments, even if they aren't actually reasonable.
I'm going to go wash dishes, play ACNL for 30 minutes and then come back here.

Oh, and I kinda trust Mashi now; about half-way through the phase he was the voice of reasoning and defended against bandwagon's that happened that I highly disagreed with. He's still a good seering target though.

[Latios212]

Brawler and I are in chat