TWG 77: Smite: Battleground of the Gods

[Latios212]

Welp, looks like I'm outvoted. No way my plan will work this round.

[mikey]

Hey peoplez I'm home again

In other words, if the wolves want double votes they already have them. A plan in a phase like this isn't going to help

I don't think you understand.  If we say "Don't vote for AD buff if you're a human!" then nobody will vote for AD buff at the risk of looking wolfish.  If anyone DOES vote for AD buff then we lynch them.  But if nobody wants to listen to reason I might as well try getting that 2x vote for myself

[davy]

In chat now

[mikey]

he's inactive, but hey, he's there
maybe having someone else come in will liven it up a bit

[Latios212]

temporarily in

[Bubbles]

So I'll place my vote on NocturneofShadow.  I asked him multiple times what his reasoning for voting for maelstrom was, and all I got was what he said in his first post:

Oh yeah since it's day phase we'd better vote, last one to do so gets killed by nemesis when applying Murphys Law
Maelstrom since he still hasn't been a wolf yet lol

All joking aside,

"All joking aside", implying that he was joking with his reasoning for voting (or the murphys law thing? idk). If he was just joking, there's no reason he shouldn't have changed his vote by now (and don't give me that "murphy's law" excuse)

In the chat he's jumping around and placing mild suspicions on multiple players

Spoiler

19:31   davyNSM   Nocturne, can you explain why I shouldn't keep my vote on you?
19:31   Nocturne   and you shouldn't keep your vote on me
19:31   Nocturne   I'M GETTING THERE
19:31   Nocturne   CHILL
19:31   Nocturne   because your vote on me doesn't really carry much weight and the only other person who suspects me is lommy
19:32   Nocturne   opens up a possible partnership between the two of you
19:32   Nocturne   but since fank isn't in the game partnerships don't matter lol
19:32   Nocturne   anyway
19:32   Nocturne   I haven't done anything suspicious at all
19:32   Nocturne   except for vote so early
19:32   davyNSM   I was suspecting you because you were not adding much to the discussion while posting a lot.
19:32   Nocturne   which I've already explained
19:33   davyNSM   And I voted you because you didn't explaine yourself.
19:33   Nocturne   I already said though
19:33   Nocturne   I don't defend against baseless accusation
19:33   Nocturne   cause when I do it makes people think I'm a wolf
19:33   Nocturne   for getting "jumpy"
19:34   b-boy   ok i read the thread
19:34   Nocturne   by now I've learned that being active early gets you killed
19:34   b-boy   and i *swear* noct you dont say anywhere why you suspect maelstrom
19:34   Nocturne   either wolfed or lynched
19:34   davyNSM   Being inactive gets the game killed
19:34   Nocturne   Oh yeah since it's day phase we'd better vote, last one to do so gets killed by nemesis when applying Murphys Law
19:34   Nocturne   Maelstrom since he still hasn't been a wolf yet lol
19:34   b-boy   thats your reasoning??
19:35   Nocturne   ^there.  The only thing missing is that he always plays like a wolf no matter what
19:35   Nocturne   yeah what's the reasoning for the Latios votes
19:35   Nocturne   "he voted for a human, he's a wolf."
19:35   Nocturne   at this point I suspect BDS more than any other player
19:35   Nocturne   my gut says BDS
19:35   Nocturne   but I don't want to switch
19:36   davyNSM   Why do you think it's BDS?
19:36   Nocturne   ask latios
19:36   Nocturne   usually night 1 me and latios find each other in the chat
19:37   Nocturne   and I name somebody and they end up being a wolf
19:37   Nocturne   ask him it's true
19:37   Nocturne   my gut is never wrong

[close]

(just a note, I'm b-boy because someone thought it would be funny to copyright my username)

Just in that chat excerpt, Noct says he's suspicious of BDS, davy and lommy are potential partners, but that he's keeping his vote on Maelstrom! Placing small suspicions on players to potentially influence but not seem overbearing or with substantial evidence. If you're not a wolf, you need to calm down man.

[mikey]

the naysayers who refuse to believe in Murphy's Law shall be smitten and doomed

[mikey]

Nocturne-3 (Thern, Davy, Bubbles)
Latios212-2 (AweYea, Bird)
Maelstrom-1 (YT)

[davy]

chatlog

      
00:23      *** davyNSM joined #NSMTWG
00:23   davyNSM   Hi there
00:24   Latios   Hello
00:24   Nocturne   I would advise against voting for anyone already with multiple votes on them
00:24   Nocturne   hey
00:24   b-boy   why
00:24   b-boy   hi davy
00:24   Nocturne   nemesis
00:24   Nocturne   have you ever heard
00:24   Nocturne   of a little something called
00:24   Nocturne   Murphy's Law
00:25   b-boy   i dont really understand?
00:25   b-boy   if nemesis is going to kill someone it doesnt matter if i vote for her
00:25   Nocturne   I guess it doesn't really apply to anyone else
00:25   b-boy   *someone* is going to die
00:25   davyNSM   Nemesis kills the last person who voted for him
00:25   Nocturne   but I believe in Murhpy's Law
00:25   b-boy   yeah
00:25   Nocturne   and refuse to be the last person to vote for anyone
00:25   Nocturne   cause if I do it's gonna be nemesis >.>
00:26   b-boy   youre saying i shouldnt vote for someone who already has votes in an effort to save myself
00:26   b-boy   not necessarily a human
00:26   Latios   davy who are you going to vote for
00:26   Nocturne   davy has a vote on BDS
00:27   Nocturne   but he thinks I'm a wolf ^_^
00:27   davyNSM   No, not anymore
00:27   b-boy   voting for someone who doesnt already have many votes (without reason except for that) wouldnt really have much of an effect on the lynching
00:27   Nocturne   and maelstrom
00:27   davyNSM   my vote's on you now
00:27   Nocturne   oh ok
00:27   Nocturne   guys
00:27   Nocturne   let's all vote for davy
00:27   Latios   why?
00:27   b-boy   i say we lynch latios because he has never been a human yet
00:27   b-boy   three times in a row, why not four?
00:27   Nocturne   hey yeah
00:28   Latios   HEY HEY HEY I ACTUALLY AM A HUMAN THIS TIME
00:28   Nocturne   there's a 100% chance he's a wolf
00:28   Nocturne   using statistical probability
00:28   Latios   THAT'S NOT HOW YOU PROBABILITY
00:28   Nocturne   shh
00:28   b-boy   its like having babies
00:28   Nocturne   it's ok
00:28   b-boy   if your first two babies are boys you have a higher chance of the third being a boy too
00:28   Nocturne   actually not
00:28   Latios   I know someone with all girls except for the last one
00:28   Nocturne   but it gets math people really angry
00:28   Latios   therefore I am human
00:28   Latios   and yes I am an angry math person
00:29   Nocturne   heheheh
00:29   b-boy   its not a definite boy, just a larger than the usual 50/50 chance
00:29   Nocturne   to ease latios' conscience
00:29   Nocturne   the games are mutually exclusive
00:29   davyNSM   Nocturne, can you explain why I shouldn't keep my vote on you?
00:29   Nocturne   meaning the probability from one has no effect on another
00:29   b-boy   noct who do you have your vote on rn?
00:29   Nocturne   so a 1/10 chance to be a wolf in one game
00:30   Nocturne   isn't a 1/9 chance to be a wolf next game
00:30   Nocturne   same as with babies lol
00:30   Nocturne   it's always gonna be 50/50
00:30   Nocturne   theoretically
00:30   b-boy   no its not!!
00:30   b-boy   its all about hormones
00:30   Nocturne   so right now I'm voting for maelstrom
00:30   b-boy   ok
00:30   Nocturne   for reasons I've already explained way too many times
00:30   b-boy   ugh but that means i have to go find them
00:31   davyNSM   Nocturne, can you explain why I shouldn't keep my vote on you?
00:31   Nocturne   and you shouldn't keep your vote on me
00:31   Nocturne   I'M GETTING THERE
00:31   Nocturne   CHILL
00:32   Nocturne   because your vote on me doesn't really carry much weight and the only other person who suspects me is lommy
00:32   Nocturne   opens up a possible partnership between the two of you
00:32   Nocturne   but since fank isn't in the game partnerships don't matter lol
00:32   Nocturne   anyway
00:32   Nocturne   I haven't done anything suspicious at all
00:32   Nocturne   except for vote so early
00:32   davyNSM   I was suspecting you because you were not adding much to the discussion while posting a lot.
00:32   Nocturne   which I've already explained
00:33   davyNSM   And I voted you because you didn't explaine yourself.
00:33   Nocturne   I already said though
00:33   Nocturne   I don't defend against baseless accusation
00:33   Nocturne   cause when I do it makes people think I'm a wolf
00:33   Nocturne   for getting "jumpy"
00:34   b-boy   ok i read the thread
00:34   Nocturne   by now I've learned that being active early gets you killed
00:34   b-boy   and i *swear* noct you dont say anywhere why you suspect maelstrom
00:34   Nocturne   either wolfed or lynched
00:34   davyNSM   Being inactive gets the game killed
00:34   Nocturne   Oh yeah since it's day phase we'd better vote, last one to do so gets killed by nemesis when applying Murphys Law
00:34   Nocturne   Maelstrom since he still hasn't been a wolf yet lol
00:35   b-boy   thats your reasoning??
00:35   Nocturne   ^there.  The only thing missing is that he always plays like a wolf no matter what
00:35   Nocturne   yeah what's the reasoning for the Latios votes
00:35   Nocturne   "he voted for a human, he's a wolf."
00:35   Nocturne   at this point I suspect BDS more than any other player
00:35   Nocturne   my gut says BDS
00:36   Nocturne   but I don't want to switch
00:36   davyNSM   Why do you think it's BDS?
00:36   Nocturne   ask latios
00:37   Nocturne   usually night 1 me and latios find each other in the chat
00:37   Nocturne   and I name somebody and they end up being a wolf
00:37   Nocturne   ask him it's true
00:37   Nocturne   my gut is never wrong
00:37   davyNSM   Ok, then I'll ask both of you: why do you think it's BDS
00:37   davyNSM   Can you give examples from other games?
00:37      *** latios2 joined #NSMTWG
00:37   Nocturne   hence why I tried to shoot bird day 1
00:37   latios2   sorry guys
00:37   latios2   soething came up
00:37   latios2   be back later
00:38   Nocturne   mystery game "masquerade"
00:38   Nocturne   most suspicious player ended up being a wolf
00:38   Nocturne   was fank
00:38   Nocturne   let's see...
00:39   Nocturne   your game I DIED night 1
00:40   Nocturne   thanks a lot
00:40      *** BlackDragonSlayer joined #NSMTWG
00:40   BlackDragonSlayer   HELLO
00:40   Nocturne   and the other recent game I was a traitor
00:40   BlackDragonSlayer   GREETINGS
00:40   Nocturne   A GOOD ONE TOO
00:40   Nocturne   hi Mr. wolf
00:40   BlackDragonSlayer   PEOPLE
00:40   davyNSM   Well then, if you don't want to defend yourself against my 'baseless accusation", is there anything else you want to add your insight to?
00:40   davyNSM   also, hi BDS
00:41   Nocturne   well since there aren't any specials this game I can't really get any other reads
00:41   Nocturne   if you want to see some really spectacular shotcalling
00:41   Nocturne   go see Yugi's mystery game on LLF
00:41   Nocturne   I was pro
00:42   davyNSM   that's what I get for not being clear enough.
00:42   davyNSM   I meant regarding this game
00:42   Nocturne   oh
00:42      *** latios2 quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)
00:42   Nocturne   well bubbles is flat out wrong when she says wolves can get any camp they want
00:43   BlackDragonSlayer   No?
00:43   Nocturne   well she was
00:43   BlackDragonSlayer   Technically, they absolutely can if they want to. However, they'd probably have to either reveal themselves or forfeit future buff-getting attempts.
00:43   Nocturne   now that the wolves have manipulated the crowd into being able to vote for whichever camp they want
00:44   Nocturne   myself I haven't voted for a camp yet
00:44   Nocturne   I thought we were all going to take attack speed buff
00:44   Nocturne   but somehow that's a bad idea
00:44   Nocturne   so if we don't come to an accord then I'll just try to take out damage camp.
00:45   BlackDragonSlayer   It negates any advantages we could get from the mechanic. It's like the mechanic doesn't even exist, when it should exist to be beneficial to us.
00:45   Nocturne   if several people vote for a camp though that gives the wolves a way to take that camp
00:45   Nocturne   imo a wolf with 2x vote power is scary
00:46   davyNSM   not in this stage of the game
00:46   BlackDragonSlayer   But then they risk revealing themselves, or forfeiting any future buff-getting attempts.
00:47   davyNSM   What do you think a wolf would do with these to camps?
00:47   davyNSM   It's not like bakasura can turn his power off...
00:47   b-boy   nocturne let me saya this
00:47   Nocturne   with so many ways to alter the votes?
00:47   Nocturne   make a 2/2 split go in their favor
00:47   davyNSM   so the only way he can not win the camp is when he doesn't try.
00:47   Nocturne   call it out on Mr. Bees
00:48   b-boy   "If anyone DOES vote for AD buff then we lynch them."
00:48   Nocturne   fine let's lynch AwesomeYears then
00:48   b-boy   noct if you vote for damage camp then youre saying youre okay with us lynching you
00:49   Nocturne   but what if 4 people vote for damage buff
00:49   b-boy   then theyre all suspicious! i thought we established that we shouldnt do that
00:49   b-boy   you cant just back out at the last second as an excuse for you voting for it
00:49   Nocturne   no, what we established is that it's a "bad idea to go for one buff"
00:49   b-boy   i dont recall
00:50   Nocturne   you know, when we all decided to go for one camp
00:50   Nocturne   then people said "no that won't work"
00:50   davyNSM   Welp, looks like I'm outvoted. No way my plan will work this round.
00:50   Nocturne   and you said "no that won't stop the wolves"
00:50   davyNSM   l^latios quote
00:50   davyNSM   Bird, BDS, you and I all agreed to do the split
00:51   Nocturne   so BDS
00:51   Nocturne   which camp did you vote for
00:51   davyNSM   while lorry, nocturne and latios were in favor of going for one camp
00:51   BlackDragonSlayer   Didn't I say already? If not, then Damage Camp.
00:51   Nocturne   aha
00:51   Nocturne   wuff
00:51   BlackDragonSlayer   bark bark
00:51   BlackDragonSlayer   wait no
00:51   BlackDragonSlayer   hoooowwwl
00:52   davyNSM   what did you recal, bubbles?
00:53      *** lommy joined #NSMTWG
00:53   b-boy   i dont remember hearing that going for one camp was bad
00:53   b-boy   but im rereading
00:54   Nocturne   oh look it's thern
00:54   Nocturne   I love bad keming
00:55   b-boy   btw guys im making a masterpiece in the thread rn
00:55   Nocturne   anyhoo I gotta do some dishes, be back in 10-20 minutes.  Vote BDS 2015
00:55   b-boy   youre gonna love it
00:56   davyNSM   wait
00:56   davyNSM   Nocturne, you said you didn't respond to accusations made against you, because you were afraid of being caled jumpy
00:56   davyNSM   can you link me a game where that was the case?
00:57   Nocturne   serious bro ill brb
00:57   davyNSM   but i'll be gone soon
00:57   davyNSM   for the rest of the phase
00:59   b-boy   ok wait
00:59   b-boy   check out my post lol
00:59   BlackDragonSlayer   I'm trying to balance discussion for two TWGs at once, so if I seem a bit distracted, that's it.
00:59   b-boy   yeah im pretty distracted too
01:00   BlackDragonSlayer   I can understand your Nocturne vote (and I was considering voting for him as well), but then again, Nocturne's behavior does seem to be fairly consistent. Maybe he's doing that to distract people from the time when he really is a wolf? Just something to think about.
01:01   b-boy   idk
01:01   b-boy   i feel like i suspect him every game
01:03   davyNSM   BDS, can you elaborate on what you mean with nocturne's behavior being consistent?
01:04   BlackDragonSlayer   Last game, he was acting similar; I thought he was a wolf, but he ended up being human.
01:07   Nocturne   I'm out of dish soap
01:07   Nocturne   so there goes that
01:07   Nocturne   @davy
01:07   Nocturne   davyNSM
01:08   Nocturne   that's not really what I said
01:09   Nocturne   I said that defending against accusations get me lynched
01:09   Nocturne   for being jumpy
01:09   Nocturne   so if someone accuses me of something that doesn't matter I let it slide
01:09   Nocturne   especially if it's something that I've already addressed previously
01:09   davyNSM   Letting it slide is different from refusing to reply.
01:10   davyNSM   Accusations always matter in a game of TWG
01:11   davyNSM   And you didn't address previously why you just followed in the direction the strategy was going without adding useful information yourself (save for the 2 cents on wolf strategy)
01:11   Nocturne   pretty sure I did
01:12   Nocturne   and I added useful info
01:12   davyNSM   quotes plz
01:12   Nocturne   well since nobody's doing anything I'll go count up votes
01:14   davyNSM   While you're at it, could you quote your response that you were pretty sure you made and your usefull info?
01:14   Nocturne   http://forum.ninsheetmusic.org/index.php?topic=6900.msg284804#msg284804
01:14   Nocturne   way ahead o' ya bro
01:15   Nocturne   I see 3 for me 2 for latios 1 for maelstrom
01:16   Nocturne   thern's vote is a "safety" though
01:16   Nocturne   not a very safe one heh
01:17   Nocturne   maelstrom hasn't even posted since page 1
01:18   Nocturne   okay mid page 2
01:18   lommy   I don't think latios is a wolf... also at this point it's no longer a safety
01:18   Nocturne   I also don't think latios is a wolf
01:18   Nocturne   Latios so who are we lynching this game?
01:19   Nocturne   Nocturne not you
01:19   Nocturne   Latios ^_^
01:19   Nocturne   let's kill bubbles cuz I'm mad at her
01:20   davyNSM   Read the post, and I got to say I misinterpreted it a bit.
01:20   davyNSM   Though if that was a response to my accusation, whose accusation didn't you want to respond to?
01:20   Nocturne   Thern's
01:20   Nocturne   his was pretty lame
01:21   lommy   I didn't give a reason behind my suspicions, but I do have reasons...
01:23   davyNSM   Lommy said he wondered if it was just your playstyle, you could at least have responded to that.
01:23   Nocturne   "yep I always play like this, I ain't a wolf"
01:24   Nocturne   *rolls eyes*
01:24   davyNSM   quote a game or two
01:25   davyNSM   or if its not just your playstyle explain why it isn't wolfy behaviour.
01:25   Nocturne   I'm a talkative person
01:25   Nocturne   and by now I've figured that the people who stay silent don't get killed
01:26   b-boy   but nsm always lynches inactives
01:27   Nocturne   har har

[close]

So after this chatlog, my thoughts are as follows:

BDS has defended himself rather well and is lower on my suspicion radar now.

Bubbles was unaware of the direction we are taking with the buff camp strategy. I don't really know what to make of that.

Nocturne isn't quite off my radar yet, but I got a pretty decent defense out of him, even though it did require quite some effort. My main reason for removing my vote on him is the consistency he shows between this game and the last (as BDS pointed out).

My vote for this phase is going to be on Maelstrom. He didn't join the discussion at hand when he posted, and he hasn't posted at all for over a day. I can see this being a wolf going inactive strategy and even if he isn't a wolf, if he's not contributing to the discussion at hand, he's not a very helpful human either.

Going to sleep now, good night.

[Maelstrom]

Sorry, I forgot to post here. I m

[Maelstrom]

Stupid tapatalk. I'm away until late Sunday night. I won't be tha y

[Maelstrom]

Aughhhhhh. I won't be that active until then

[Latios212]

Bird are you going to change your vote for me or what

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I don't really want a repeat of last game, but Nocturne seems like the best choice for now? Maelstrom needs some investigation as well; I'll post more of my thoughts later.

[mikey]

wolf leans
BDS
Thern
bubbles
maelstrom

Human leans
me
AweYea
Latios

Undecided
Bird
davy