TWG LXXII: Agents of Shield (Season 1)

[FireArrow]

Mashi, why is MLF suspicious other than inactive?

FA, why are you suspicious? Red seering, that is all. Your flip is now necesarry to (IMO) move the game forward and develop some leans from the flip (although it looks set in stone, its that time where I overcomplicate things and throw a wrench in simplicity

Jon, why you tunnel so much?

MLF is suspicious because he's active outside the thread and chat.

I agree that my flip is necessary, but not on day 1. We can get the same exact results by waiting a day without the risk. Anyways, using red seering is begging the question fallacy. I'm just as suspicious as the legitimacy of the other seer, which the only difference between us is I claimed late. Toby just wants to trust the other seer more because the other seer "trusts" him more for claiming first. There is literally no other reason, and my whole lynch is balancing on this failure of logic.

[Jon]

If we wait a day, then it's one more wolf to catch the revive seed. That's why you have to die this phase, and that's why I think you are fighting tooth and nail to survive one more phase. You keep saying that the seer has done nothing to prove their humanity, what would you suggest they do to prove it?

[FireArrow]

If we wait a day, then it's one more wolf to catch the revive seed. That's why you have to die this phase, and that's why I think you are fighting tooth and nail to survive one more phase. You keep saying that the seer has done nothing to prove their humanity, what would you suggest they do to prove it?

That makes no sense. If I get the revive, what would I do with it? I can't give it to anyone, and I no wolves would be dead for me to revive.

And the other seer can't do anything to prove it, what I'm trying to say is, he can't prove it anymore than I can (actually, I can atleast prove it by leaving myself as wolf bait) yet you trust him more than me.

[Mashi]

Olimar12345 posted a PM from mariolegofan a while ago, fank009.  The only game-related reason I can see mariolegofan deciding to PM OLimar12345 over the Host is if they're Masons or if they're Wolf Partners.  And seeing as I'm suspicious of Olimar12345, I can cross Masons off the list.

FireArrow, no one buys your counterarguments.  You'll need to come up with new ones, as there's nothing for us to refute.  You're complaining that no one is believing you, which (more or less) either means that everyone besides you is being irrational or you're being irrational.  If you truly are the Seer, own up that you made mistakes instead of castigating everyone for not listening to you.  If you are the Seer, claiming to Toby at the last minute was an absolutely terrible move on your part.  No one's going to hold a vendetta against you or anything similar, but don't act as if your paranoia was justified considering he was uncounterclaimed.  Improbable things can occur in TWG (is it possible that Toby's not the Brutal Human?  Yes.  But extraordinarily unlikely), but if you worry about every single improbable event, you won't be successful in catching Wolves in the deluge of possibilities.  Just look at the mess caused right now for an example.
If it makes you feel any better, if you are the Seer and we end up lynching you, I'm going to feel like a total idiot for not trusting my doubt!!!

I'll go over why I suspect you briefly:
- You suggested lynching inactives, which is a bad idea Day 1, as successful Wolves are often active and a lynch on an inactive provides us with no information.  Especially in a cardflip game where the flip allows us to build associations.  I would be on your case regardless of the seering because of this.
- In addition to the previous point, it was your very first post in the thread that was a suggestion to lynch inactives, which was hypocritical, since you would be considered inactive yourself.  Not to mention that the game just started, so it's difficult to gauge potential activity at the start of Day 1.
- You were seered Red by the unknown Seer claimer.  If that Seer claimer is false claiming, then he is expecting to be killed after you flip (if you're not Miller, which is impossible now that you've hard claimed Seer).  The only reason I would expect a false claim Seer to fake a Red seering is if that person was Traitor and trying to waste two lynches (one on the falsely seered target, one on the Traitor).  But even that doesn't seem too likely because the Traitor puts his false seering target at the risk of being an actual Wolf.
- In contrast, your seering is unhelpful and weak.  Toby was uncounterclaimed, so why would anyone not expect him to come back as Blue?
- Not really anything you can help, but Olimar12345 has been making poor plays (particularly his plan to figure out who wasn't in the alliance) and that he seems to be ambivalent in regard to trusting you but 'okay' with placing a vote on you leads to me to suspect you through guilt by association.
- Likewise, seeing as Toby told the Seer who the Masons were and that the Masons are still alive is a slight lean in the unknown Seer claim's favour.  Nothing major, but it helps.


Ninja'd: I'll respond to your points.

That your sample size is poor is sufficient reason enough to acknowledge that your claim that Wolves win when they're inactive is one that has little statistical merit.
Game of Wolves was a special case because the Humans played rather poorly.  People became so distracted with lynching Liggy that it resulted in my lynch (which was a very terrible one, by the way!!!) that they overlooked everyone else in the game.
I don't about you in Game of Doors, but I was PMing people left in right that game.  That was how I duped fank009.

Whether a Wolf makes a hasty vote is dependent on the Player.  However, in general, it's generally the case that Wolves will latch onto a vote if they feel they can garner traction for it.  Conversely, they may vote for a Partner if they want to distance themselves and avoid being found suspicious by association.  That's what I suspect was happening with the votes.

By false dilemma, I mean you're stating two possibilities as if they're the only ones.  It was poor wording on my part, but I'm criticising that you're stating them with your own biases rather than stating them more objectively.


I might be open to lynching someone else over you if you can provide for a solid push in someone else's direction.  That you're open to lynching Olimar12345 and mariolegofan is keeping me at bay.

[fank009]

You make that point of doors and me being manipulated... yep that's why I don't really trust you.

Here's the thing, you arguing to stay another day is really scummy... feels like a save me... and as I stated, you as a human s bad if we save you for one more day.

Maybe Toby trusts the other seer more... who knows, but I am sure he has his reasons... (I think he did state, need to check could be mistaken though)

Fmpov you are currently useless as a seer FA, you won't get another scan in (unless miracle happens). So the best part you can play is voting as a confirmed human.

(Fmpov you've played badly as a wolf and human)

Also. You are asking us to practically seer hunt FA.... you know how dangerous that is?

[FireArrow]

FireArrow, no one buys your counterarguments.  You'll need to come up with new ones, as there's nothing for us to refute.  You're complaining that no one is believing you, which (more or less) either means that everyone besides you is being irrational or you're being irrational.  If you truly are the Seer, own up that you made mistakes instead of castigating everyone for not listening to you.  If you are the Seer, claiming to Toby at the last minute was an absolutely terrible move on your part.  No one's going to hold a vendetta against you or anything similar, but don't act as if your paranoia was justified considering he was uncounterclaimed.  Improbable things can occur in TWG (is it possible that Toby's not the Brutal Human?  Yes.  But extraordinarily unlikely), but if you worry about every single improbable event, you won't be successful in catching Wolves in the deluge of possibilities.  Just look at the mess caused right now for an example.
If it makes you feel any better, if you are the Seer and we end up lynching you, I'm going to feel like a total idiot for not trusting my doubt!!!

That's exactly it. Yes, I admit I made a mistake, but people are assuming that because I made this mistake, it must mean I'm the one who can't be trusted. My counterargument isn't so much a counter argument as it is pointing out how wrong that reasoning is, yet people ignore it.

I'll go over why I suspect you briefly:
- You suggested lynching inactives, which is a bad idea Day 1, as successful Wolves are often active and a lynch on an inactive provides us with no information.  Especially in a cardflip game where the flip allows us to build associations.  I would be on your case regardless of the seering because of this.

From all the games I've played (both NSM and not), this has been the case. If that has little statistical merit, I don't know what to say. This is proving that I'm a bad player, not that I'm a wolf. If I knew that lynching inactives was a bad idea (still not convinced), wouldn't I, as a wolf, avoid posting it as well?

- In addition to the previous point, it was your very first post in the thread that was a suggestion to lynch inactives, which was hypocritical, since you would be considered inactive yourself.  Not to mention that the game just started, so it's difficult to gauge potential activity at the start of Day 1.

Fair point. Inactivity night 1 is normal for me, because there's nothing to really base an opinion off of. My plan was to get the inactives to become active and watch the wolves awkwardly transition, not to go about lynching people who didn't post night 1 (though we could start with that as incentive to get people rolling.) This is why I didn't list off names of inactive people in my first post.

- You were seered Red by the unknown Seer claimer.  If that Seer claimer is false claiming, then he is expecting to be killed after you flip (if you're not Miller, which is impossible now that you've hard claimed Seer).  The only reason I would expect a false claim Seer to fake a Red seering is if that person was Traitor and trying to waste two lynches (one on the falsely seered target, one on the Traitor).  But even that doesn't seem too likely because the Traitor puts his false seering target at the risk of being an actual Wolf.

You have to remember that Toby is the one who asked me for me to be seered, and we don't know what information he told him. If Toby said "FireArrow refuses to claim until day 1, seer that poop" then the fake seer could of easily inferred that I was the seer (since he's a wolf, he knows I'm not, and the only human role who would have a reason to do that is the seer.) If he just said "Seer that poop FireArrow" than either he's a traitor (as you said) or he's a wolf with poor decision making (enough reason to suspect me, why not him.)

- In contrast, your seering is unhelpful and weak.  Toby was uncounterclaimed, so why would anyone not expect him to come back as Blue?

The wolves have a seer as well. Toby is a bad seering for both teams, but atleast it makes a little bit of sense from a human seer prespective.

- Not really anything you can help, but Olimar12345 has been making poor plays (particularly his plan to figure out who wasn't in the alliance) and that he seems to be ambivalent in regard to trusting you but 'okay' with placing a vote on you leads to me to suspect you through guilt by association.

Guilt by association is a fallacy.

- Likewise, seeing as Toby told the Seer who the Masons were and that the Masons are still alive is a slight lean in the unknown Seer claim's favour.  Nothing major, but it helps.

If he killed masons night one, him calling me red would all be for naught..

Whether a Wolf makes a hasty vote is dependent on the Player.  However, in general, it's generally the case that Wolves will latch onto a vote if they feel they can garner traction for it.  Conversely, they may vote for a Partner if they want to distance themselves and avoid being found suspicious by association.  That's what I suspect was happening with the votes.

But my hasty vote was on you, unless your talking about olimar trying to distance from me (in which case, he's doing a shitty job.)

By false dilemma, I mean you're stating two possibilities as if they're the only ones.  It was poor wording on my part, but I'm criticising that you're stating them with your own biases rather than stating them more objectively.

I'm sorry, I lost this train of thought, I don't even remember what you were responding to. If it's important to your opinion of me, can you please do a recap on it?

I might be open to lynching someone else over you if you can provide for a solid push in someone else's direction.  That you're open to lynching Olimar12345 and mariolegofan is keeping me at bay.

It's day one, the only other person that has as much evidence against them as me is the other seer. However, from an unbiased perspective it's not a good idea to reveal both seers, so I wouldn't suggest we do that.

I still think Jon is the best target, tunnel vision on me the entire game without ever making any real points. Olimar and MLF could work too, but the evidence against them is kinda hit or miss (given their lack of experience.) Blueflower is a lesser Jon to me, and no one else is suspicious of him, so that's off the list I guess. We could go for Noc, but that's risky (I'm not convinced he's a traitor, he's either a mason or a wolf.)

[FireArrow]

You make that point of doors and me being manipulated... yep that's why I don't really trust you.

Here's the thing, you arguing to stay another day is really scummy... feels like a save me... and as I stated, you as a human s bad if we save you for one more day.

Maybe Toby trusts the other seer more... who knows, but I am sure he has his reasons... (I think he did state, need to check could be mistaken though)

Fmpov you are currently useless as a seer FA, you won't get another scan in (unless miracle happens). So the best part you can play is voting as a confirmed human.

(Fmpov you've played badly as a wolf and human)

Also. You are asking us to practically seer hunt FA.... you know how dangerous that is?

Look, it's more risky lynching me today than tomorrow due to the timing of the revive. You can't deny that, it's simply a fact (and Jon's point of me trying to get the revive is based on a misunderstanding of the game.)

And what is seer hunt? If I get wolfed, we have a confirmed wolf that we didn't have to waste a lynch to get. If I don't get wolfed, lynching me is much less risky because we know where the revive falls. I fail to see what's dangerous about that.

[Yugi]

Game of Doors (don't remember the name): I was a wolf and won by manipulating fank (because he taught me what he looks for in tells, I just gave him everything he was looking for.) I wasn't particularly active, I just got him to trust me then rode the waves home (I think you were my partner in this aswell.

Well half the game was inactive then so that's not an excuse.

[FireArrow]

I'll be idleing in chat all day while I study for finals.

[Jon]

Okay, why do we trust the other seer over you? Because you have made multiple mistakes and they have made none. If you were in our position, who would you believe? The guy who has nothing to defend because he has done nothing wrong, or the guy who is constantly defending himself from accusations? The accusations against you for day 1 are pretty strong, as Mashi said, it will be hard to avoid your lynch because nobody else has done anything remotely as suspicious.

If you receive the revive in the upcoming night phase, you don't need to send it or use it, just having it and dying with it will hurt the humans bad enough. Why else would you be campaigning so hard for one more day? the wolf:human role ratio in this game is pretty high, we can't afford to make mislynches if we can help it.

[FireArrow]

Okay, why do we trust the other seer over you? Because you have made multiple mistakes and they have made none. If you were in our position, who would you believe? The guy who has nothing to defend because he has done nothing wrong, or the guy who is constantly defending himself from accusations? The accusations against you for day 1 are pretty strong, as Mashi said, it will be hard to avoid your lynch because nobody else has done anything remotely as suspicious.

If you receive the revive in the upcoming night phase, you don't need to send it or use it, just having it and dying with it will hurt the humans bad enough. Why else would you be campaigning so hard for one more day? the wolf:human role ratio in this game is pretty high, we can't afford to make mislynches if we can help it.

Non-sequitur and Begging the question. People suspecting me/making mistakes =/= wolf.
Also I wouldn't spend hours of my time before finals just so TST, a regular human, can't get revive.

[fank009]

Game of doors s different in the sense it was restrictive

FA what do you exactly mean by timing???
If we mislynch today... it will be odds of 4 in 11, you as a seer, still the same odds.
Jon believes you are scum, so if the idea is to stop wolves getting the revive, lynching you is a good idea.

You are forgetting... we still have the chance to waste this lynch.
Any information we gain from a lynch is not wasted.

I'll post more of an argument when on the computer... but its very one sided FA

[FireArrow]

By timing I mean we know whether or not the humans get the revive, it takes out one variable that makes this lynch so risky.

And is receiving that information a day earlier so important that you're willing to risk the masons, risk the wolves getting the revive, and risk losing a lynch (if the wolves wolf me, you gain an extra lynch with the same pay off.)

[Jon]

This is the thing, if the alliance is infiltrated then the masons are dead already.

[FireArrow]

This is the thing, if the alliance is infiltrated then the masons are dead already.

Yes, but then the wolves would have to wolf me or them. Basically, we don't let them kill two birds with one stone.