TWG LXXII: Agents of Shield (Season 1)

[Maelstrom]

Firearrow
We really don't have any other good options that have a decent chance of confirming a lot of things.

[mikey]

Do we wanna insta this though

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Hmm... interesting revelation. If FireArrow were a wolf, I'm not sure why he would wait to claim (it would be an easy opportunity to mess up the alliance), but as a special, it makes sense that he's want to be more cautious before claiming (it seems like something I might do), although I don't exactly agree with his reasons for waiting in a game like this (assuming he is, in fact, a special).

[FireArrow]

This post is at large a giant train of thought ending in a plan to handle this. I encourage you to read all of it, but just skip to the end if you have to.

You didn't make any objections to my legitimacy in the thread or the chat, you didn't tell the thread that you didn't think we should claim yet so all I can believe is that you wanted to delay, it looks to me like you were just trying to buy time by pretending that you wanted 'proof' before claiming. Even when I said an alliance was set up you still didn't claim.

You misunderstood my intentions. I never thought you were a wolf, I just wanted to be sure you weren't. Was it wrong of me to be overly cautious, apparently.

Anyways, your whole argument hinges on that it would be bad play for a seer to wait a day. You are completely ignoring that fact that it's equally bad play for a wolf to wait a day. In terms of debate and fallacies, you're cherry picking fueled by confirmation bias.

If I died last night an alliance would have been made without you, I said an alliance was going to be set up before night ended.

If you were who you claimed you were, you wouldn't of died. Unless the wolves have no brain cells that is: "Yeah! Let's sacrifice someone to kill toby! Oh no, he was revived! Lets sacrifice someone again! :DDDD"

um
except a toby seering is ridiculously easy to make up.  The real may would have counterclaimed a LONG time ago, so I'd say this is pretty solid evidence.  The fact that you claimed skye is proof that you're not the miller (because as I found out the miller doesn't know he's red lol) and the fact that you "seered" toby probably means you're just the regular wolf; (I might be making stuff up here lol) but if you were the seering wolf you probably would have claimed seer a lot earlier, having the power to back it up.  Oh, I guess you could be the traitor too lol
;( I wish it didn't have to end this way mate

This paragraph contains absolutely no water. Wolves have contact with eachother, wolves have a seer. If I was a wolf, I wouldn't need to "make up" a seering. If my intentions of seering Toby were to "proove" myself to be a seer, I'd of seered someone else and started my own alliance. Seering Toby is a complete waste of time for the wolves.

wait a second.  You were seered red and you think you're going to die tonight if you don't get lynched?

I'm claiming that I'm not red. I don't know who made up the seering, considering Toby never even PMed me back. Wish he would've, because then we could at least make a good plan to see who's telling the truth without risking anything. To late now though, because even if I can convince you guys, the wolves can just wolf me.

Fire arrow claimed far after the alliance was even set up, but mostly yes.  Toby had skye seer firearrow after his saying "I'd prefer not to claim until day 1, hope your OK with that."
Also firearrow never actually told us the result of the seering soooo

At least mael and toby's posts have good poinst. Your's are just completely illogical.
1. I claimed as soon as I got my seering results, just ask Toby for the time I sent the PM.
2. I secretly seered him red but I'm holding that back from you guys because then you'd know I was a wolf!

Firearrow's reasons make sense, but not in this game. If there would be a counterclaim for May, then it should have come out night one, and soon after the initial claim. (Unless May is mlf, in which case, we're all screwed) And, it would be quite bad for the wolves to counterclaim in the first place, as it would lead to loss of 1/3 of the wolves' team. It would be counterproductive to wait until day one to claim, and not seer someone else suspicious. If toby got someone to seer Firearrow, then Firearrow is obviously not the seer. Or that seer is a wolf who knew what Firearrow was and didn't have to seer them.
tl;dr: Firearrow is either a wolf, or a seer with poor decision-making skills and the supposed seer is a wolf
Or toby is a wolf.....

Yay, someone who's finally thinking instead of playing HAHA I GOTZ U. Honestly, I don't regret waiting a day, seeing that the chances of the wolves claiming seer was miniscule. Basically, see my earlier response to Toby (first thing I responded to.) The waiting a day itself wasn't bad play for said reasons, what was bad play was that I should of picked up on the fact that "Alliance being set up" meant they already had a seer. If I didn't slip up on that, I probably would of handled it much differently.

Plus, if the seer that is in the alliance now is a wolf, then they know who the masons are and could have easily wolfed one of them without me thinking much of it.

If the masons were wolfed last night, you'd sure be thinking something of it now eh?

Fire Arrow at the moment seems like the only lynch target with any form of concrete evidence going against him. If you think about it, Fire's posts make a lot of sense if you assume that he's a wolf while reading them.

1. My posts don't make any sense that way. Give me one reason why a wolf would wait a day then claim seer. One, I dare you.

2. Concrete evidence? Not really, it's a matter of whose telling the truth. People are acting like the other 'seers' (I doubt it's the wolf seer, probably MASTERRR HYYDRAA) red seering is indisputable and I'm just a confirmed wolf with no case.

Honestly, it's because toby was pissed at me for not claiming to him right away. I'll post his response if you want, but the tone in his accusation post should be enough. Both me and the other seer are on completely equal footing regarding being trust worthy. Any other evidence against me (lynching inactives, waiting a day) has already been addressed. The idea of using my red seering as evidence is a fallacy - "begging the question" aka using the conclusion of your argument as evidence.

Let's say Fire Arrow is a wolf. The obvious implication of this statement is to lead us towards lynching inactive players, and lynching inactive humans is, of course, exactly what the wolfs want us to do. It's like blindly taking a stab in the dark versus using logic, deduction, suspicion lists, Seer results, etc. to narrow down who would be the most likely candidate. Lynching people at random sort of goes against what TWG is all about in the first place.

That being said, Fire Arrow presents the exact opposite argument.

I'm gonna join the next game, be a wolf, then completely never post in the thread and win while you guys use "logic and deduction" to lynch eachother.

You want to know why I wanted to lynch inactives? After a few days of lynching people for not posting, the wolves are forced to start participating. This is a REALLY awkward transition for them and it makes it really easy to tell them apart. After a few days,you have much more substantial evidence then you would of if you did it your way. Should I also add that you have a higher chance of hitting one early?

Note: I don't think we should lynch inactives at this point, wasn't expecting this much to happen.

The wolves certainly benefit from lynching inactive people if all the wolves are active participants in the lynchings. A viable strategy for the wolves would be to lead the charge against the inactives while they're among us the entire time... 

Name one game where that happened. I'd honestly be impressed with those wolves, because staying low is so reliable on NSM. Think about it, no one lynches inactives and if someone suggests it everyone thinks they're a wolf.

One of you will probably tear apart this post and find things that make me look ridiculously suspicious, but it's still what I think.

You have 2 posts. If I look at yours from the perspective of a wolf, it makes a hell of a lot of sense, considering those 2 posts are the safest ones you can possible make (pointing out an obvious fact against the wolves and bandwagonning.)

Personally I think his reaction to the seering is much stronger evidence against him because there's always a chance that we get the reviver seed.  Had I been in his spot I might have agreed to the vote if only to prove to everyone that I was not actually red; proving to the humans that the seer in the alliance was a wolf in disguise

Oh that human team could completely lose the game if we get unlucky with the reviver seed? Aww, it's all cool, I'll just be chill about. It's below 50% chance anywho!

Anyways, My idea:

Noc, remember when we were talking about being able to validated the seer, and we came to the conclusion that the only way to do it was through cardflip. Well, I thought about it a bit and there's a much safer way to go about this:

The idea of lynching me, and seeing how I flip is reliant on us being able to revive me if we're wrong. If the wolves get the reviver seed, they can just revive the fake, now confirmed wolf, seer after the lynch. If you guys mess this up, we lose three lynches.

The riskless solution?

Leave me out for the wolves tonight. If I come back alive, you have both a confirmed seer and and a confirmed wolf, and you save todays lynch.

But FireArrow, why is that any better than before? We get the same results but we have a chance of letting a wolf live another day.

The benefits lie in the cost of being wrong:

If I'm a seer and you mislynch me: You lose 3 lynches and a seer.
If I'm a seer and you let me die to the wolves: You lose 2 lynches and a seer.

This does have the issue of me being able to be framed, however, I'd glady vote for myself and "take one for the team" on D2 because.... that's when the reviver seed comes and we can know if the wolves or the humans have it.

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

[FireArrow]

Do we wanna insta this though

lol pls I spent hours on this post atleast read it ;_;

[blueflower999]

1. My posts don't make any sense that way. Give me one reason why a wolf would wait a day then claim seer. One, I dare you.
[/quote]
To appear to be human, duh. You could make this exact same argument. Add as many reverse psychologies as you want, it doesn't make a difference.

2. Concrete evidence? Not really, it's a matter of whose telling the truth. People are acting like the other 'seers' (I doubt it's the wolf seer, probably MASTERRR HYYDRAA) red seering is indisputable and I'm just a confirmed wolf with no case.

Hey, at least the other Seer didn't choose to Seer someone who already claimed. It's pretty easy to make up "Toby is blue" without having actually Seered him.

Honestly, it's because toby was pissed at me for not claiming to him right away. I'll post his response if you want, but the tone in his accusation post should be enough. Both me and the other seer are on completely equal footing regarding being trust worthy. Any other evidence against me (lynching inactives, waiting a day) has already been addressed. The idea of using my red seering as evidence is a fallacy - "begging the question" aka using the conclusion of your argument as evidence.

You didn't answer my question: Why didn't you claim human Night 1 and then wait until a counterclaim, and *then* claim Seer. It just makes so much more sense and doesn't make you look hella suspicious like you are right now.

You have 2 posts. If I look at yours from the perspective of a wolf, it makes a hell of a lot of sense, considering those 2 posts are the safest ones you can possible make (pointing out an obvious fact against the wolves and bandwagonning.)

Heyyyy now, I think I used some fairly decent logic in my previous post! I mean sure I wasn't the first person to accuse you, but I was pretty proud of that! D:

Anyway though, your idea makes a lot of sense, but I'll only buy it if you provide a significantly more suspicious target than yourself to lynch today. And there really isn't one at the moment.

[FireArrow]

To appear to be human, duh. You could make this exact same argument. Add as many reverse psychologies as you want, it doesn't make a difference.

Me claimed a day late has been used as evidence against me, now you're saying I'd do it
Hey, at least the other Seer didn't choose to Seer someone who already claimed. It's pretty easy to make up "Toby is blue" without having actually Seered him.
You didn't answer my question: Why didn't you claim human Night 1 and then wait until a counterclaim, and *then* claim Seer. It just makes so much more sense and doesn't make you look hella suspicious like you are right now.
Heyyyy now, I think I used some fairly decent logic in my previous post! I mean sure I wasn't the first person to accuse you, but I was pretty proud of that! D:

Anyway though, your idea makes a lot of sense, but I'll only buy it if you provide a significantly more suspicious target than yourself to lynch today. And there really isn't one at the moment.

I know someone whose a HELL of a lot more suspicious than me, however, there's also a risk of him being blue so I won't say the name (nor will I live long enough to find out.) The second person down on my list is you tied with mashi (both for the same reason.)

The only reason to not follow my plan is if me flipping red would give insight into other people based on partner compatibility. I don't have any viable partners, considering my opinions of everyone in this thread are inverse to that of my opinion of them (barring mashi and you.)

[FireArrow]

damn it posted that before I was gone replying

Hey, at least the other Seer didn't choose to Seer someone who already claimed. It's pretty easy to make up "Toby is blue" without having actually Seered him.

Already said, already addressed.

You didn't answer my question: Why didn't you claim human Night 1 and then wait until a counterclaim, and *then* claim Seer. It just makes so much more sense and doesn't make you look hella suspicious like you are right now.
Heyyyy now, I think I used some fairly decent logic in my previous post! I mean sure I wasn't the first person to accuse you, but I was pretty proud of that! D:

I just didn't think to. That would of been the superior option if I was a wolf as well, so I don't see what you're getting at...

[Maelstrom]

I just didn't think to. That would of been the superior option if I was a wolf as well, so I don't see what you're getting at...

He's right, you know.

[Olimar12345]

Just got back to my computer. I'll be reading through this topic and be in the chat fr a bit.

[Olimar12345]

Temp changing my vote to BDS to avoid insta for now. This is the current list:

FireArrow: 5 (Jon, Toby, Blueflower, NoS, and Maelstrom)

Mashi: 1 (FireArrow)

BDS: 2 (Fank and Myself)

[Olimar12345]

So I just got caught up in the thread, and damn, so many great arguments. I swear I end up changing my mind every new post that comes around, but After those last few, I am against a FireArrow lynch, at least for this phase. Not being a part of the union, I really can't say for sure that Toby and his gang of mysterious "humans" are who they say they are. I sent in my claim, and continue to regret it. I could have just told my enemy my identity, and now am at their mercy. (Toby, you promised!)

Basically here is my perspective from my "in the dark" position: I see a potentially cautious seer getting overshadowed and clinging to life by a thread, at the hands of a supposed "Leader of a group I know nothing about." I don't particularly like either side of this unfair tug-of-war, but I see more of a threat in this "Shadowy Union" than in FireArrow. I'm seeing a man being cornered by wolves, if you will. I could be completely incorrect about this all; that just means that the humans are more thirsty for blood than the wolves are!

I PROPOSE: If you are NOT a part of Toby's Union, PM me and we'll form our own small alliance of the remaining polayers. Not necessarily against Toby, but just to unite those of us who aren't in an alliance. Lets see just how many people are actually in Toby's Union.

[Olimar12345]

Triple post, In the chat.

[Toby]

@FireArrow

Honestly, I don't regret waiting a day, seeing that the chances of the wolves claiming seer was miniscule.

Actually, the chances of a wolf claiming seer were about 95/100. Everyone in the alliance was very surprised that no one had counter claimed anything.

Leave me out for the wolves tonight. If I come back alive, you have both a confirmed seer and and a confirmed wolf, and you save todays lynch.

You do realise that you'd be asking for the wolves to help us but wolfing the most suspicious person in the game, even if you are the seer, there is no way in hell the wolves are going to waste a wolfing on you when they can wolf someone else, like the masons. Wolves generally wolf the most human looking person. Also, if you had any sense of how desperate a real human seer would be to stay alive, you might actually suggest a plan like this to me through pm as to not let the wolves know about it, of course you don't care though because you probably discussed this with your own alliance already.

You misunderstood my intentions. I never thought you were a wolf, I just wanted to be sure you weren't. Was it wrong of me to be overly cautious, apparently.

If this was the case you would have claimed seer to me then went behind my back and seered me just to make sure. Or something of the sort, my just plain outright wait. This is very pool human play and if you are in fact the real seer I'm not even going to blame it on myself or good play from anyone else that you died.

[Toby]

 

I PROPOSE: If you are NOT a part of Toby's Union, PM me and we'll form our own small alliance of the remaining polayers. Not necessarily against Toby, but just to unite those of us who aren't in an alliance. Lets see just how many people are actually in Toby's Union.

NO ONE DO THIS.

This is just wolf Olimar trying to find out who the specials are by finding out who doesn't claim to him, remember not to claim your role to anyone else but me, don't hint your role to anyon, don't make yourself seem like you're useless or useful keep your role a secret, the wolves will use this stuff against is to figure out who is in the alliance.