TWG LXXII: Agents of Shield (Season 1)

[Mashi]

Jon, you're an idiot.
Also Chat link?

Slight Human lean for the emotional reaction to Jon's claim.

Jon makes dumb jokes like this every game, don't look at it too hard.

Also, just so you know, I'm not going to be very active over the next few days, because of internet problems. I don't think I /need/ to be replaced but I'll be fine if I am.

It seemed that the primary motive for posting was to explain future inactivity due to extenuating circumstances, so the additional explanation for Jon's behaviour seems Human to me, I feel a Wolf wouldn't be as likely to be thinking of anything beyond the future absence.

Yay day 1.

First thoughts, Jon is on the bottom of my list because a wolf would never do something that rash on night 1.
Blueflower I'm slightly suspicious of because he's stating something obviously true, however, looks very anti-wolf to say (does that make sense?)
Fank is fank, nothing to say here.
Yugi and Olimar seem to be avoiding important discussion, then again, only day 1.
Toby, at this point, is most definitely who he says he is.

With that being said, can we lynch an inactive please. NSM TWG is so predictable, the wolves just play inactive until later because everyone just rush lynches suspicious (almost always human) players.

I've given the courtesy of showing you all of FireArrow's previous posts in the thread before this one.

"... But Mashi, you didn't even quote any posts?"

Yes, because there weren't any.  FireArrow is claiming that we should lynch inactives when that was literally his first post in the thread. 
Not to mention that the logic is flawed anyway.  Wolves win when Humans are inactive.  If Wolves are ever inactive, it's because the Humans are too.  You'll be hard pressed to possibly find a game where Humans lost when they were active and the Wolves weren't.

Nocturne
For *reasons.*
If you want to know, ask Toby.

Odd post.  Doubt a Wolf would purposely draw attention to himself with a vague post like this.

I'm not gonna band wagon over "reasons." NoS atleast is trying to be active (chat room.)

Of course, maybe toby's onto something, but he's gonna have to share why.

Immediate defence of NocturneOfShadow.

A lot of early votes... from my experience any early votes usually end up changing so no point in worrying about them.  After all we've got until saturday night to figure something out so I don't see any need to rush a vote.  I had a pretty long chat with mael and decided he's probably human this game, but with mael you can never tell because he always acts like a wolf

Alright toby you probably have the best idea as to whom should be killed this day phase?  I do like FireArrow's idea though, also with the reviver seed coming tomorrow night we could theoretically have a free miss today because of the cardflip.  Essentially we'd be getting a public seering at the possible cost of a lynch.Solid thoughts, I'm with you on the blueflower suspicion, it's not that uncommon for a wolf to throw out some antiwolf propaganda as it were.
Careful with fank being fank, but I've played with him enough that I should be able to get a tell on him in a couple phases (hopefully).
All I know with jon is that he's either a wolf or a human because of his llf game   (good luck jon)

Also I totally derped and forgot that it's impossible to claim miller (which REALLY screwed up my plans lol just ask mael) so if someone seers red should we just lynch em since 1/4 chance isn't very good?
Loose thoughts:
Mashi's only realistically posted once.
Very loose thoughts:
Wolves wolf a wolf for the humans to waste reviver seed?(Not likely at all but throwing it out there because it's possible)

Mindmelding with FireArrow.

That's exactly what I'm trying to do, because I believe the active people are human.

What's with it with you people and thinking inactives are innocent.

WE DON'T HAVE TELLS ON INACTIVES. That's exactly why a wolf would be inactive, they're playing on the this whole innocent until proven guilty mentality humans have, by the time were done lynching all the active wolf-looking humans, we lose.

Another way to put it:
Lynching actives:
Best case: We lynch a wolf.
Worst case: We lynch a useful human.

Lynching inactives:
Best case: We lynch a wolf.
Worst case: We lynch a useless human (PRs will be impossible to mislynch due to the alliance.)

Flawed prompt, it's practically impossible to properly gauge activity based on Night 1 and early Day 1.  There's little to go off of and many Players become more active as the game continues.  Despite his weak reasoning, FireArrow continues to push a lynch on the hypothetical inactives, whom he fails to name until prompted to do so.

Oh, that lol.  That was just what could have been a REALLY bad mistake on my part.  I said if I had a red role I would have claimed miller lol because I thought the miller got a pm,  Maelstrom told me otherwise
Maybe I said it in a really weird way, I haven't had much sleep in the last couple days haha but maybe the reason you can't pull info from it is because there is no info in it??
You know when you're playing chess and you like make up possible moves for the next 3 turns?  Same way, except when I was planning the wolves' moves I thought it was possible that the regular wolf would claim as miller and seer wolf would claim seer.  No joke I would have claimed miller to toby lol.  So I'm glad I'm not a wolf because this game woulda been really lame for me

Current leans
Toby human(duh)
Me human(duh)
tst human (see earlier way out there idea in the thread that bds commented on)
Maelstrom human
Olimar human
FireArrow human(way to blow it fank )
Jon looks more humanish than wolfish but not as human as the others
blueflower suspicious
fank suspicious
mashi
Yugi
MLF
And right now I think it may be possible for BDS to be a wolf from what I've seen him play, but I'll withhold judgement on that just yet.
For now Mashi though
have you tried to pm him about it at all   usually those work though time zones xD
darn it woman stop posting stuff I'm trying to get a decent thought out and y'all keep interrupting.

If this is distancing from FireArrow, NocturneOfShadow is doing a good job.  Feeling slightly less confident about an association between him and FireArrow.

I disagree with maels speedy veiled reason vote aswell. I mean, I appreciate you helping with that plan I told you about, but I'd like to hear toby's and maels reason for lynching you.

You know what, what the hell, Mashi, I can always change it later.

There's the spontaneous vote for me despite literally just having posted that we shouldn't post with haste.


Just read the logs Toby posted, NocturneOfShadow as Traitor makes sense.

I'm kind of questioning the validity of your seer, Toby. It seems like they gained access to the union just because they got there first (FA's argument). Saying that them not wolfing a miller doesn't justify them right away. Doing something like that would be an obvious wolf gift away imo. No wolf in their right mind would jeprodize a seer position that early in the game for a single miller target.

Though, this is all speculation. Maybe you do have the correct seer and you have spotted a potential wolf day 1.

lol this post
Trying to spread doubt in the alliance without seeming like he is, gj!!!

Off topic, but I just received this fucking lovely PM from MLF:

Anyone else want to join in?

Why was mariolegofan PMing you?  Is it because he's your Wolf Partner???


NocturneOfShadow's vote on Olimar12345 is cool.  Maybe he's not the Traitor.  Doesn't matter too significantly though, as I don't think NocturneOfShadow is Wolf.

So a current vote count should look something like this:

FireArrow: 4 (Jon, Toby, Blueflower, and Myself)

NoS: 2 (Maelstrom and Fank)

Mashi: 1 (FireArrow)

Olimar: 1 (NoS)


Personally, I would be willing to change my vote to someone better. FA isn't a bullet-proof candidate tbh.

LOOOOOOOOOL
"firearrow isn't a bullet-proof candidate"
yet you voted for him like 3 posts ago here:

This detail is of great importance, and the reason for my vote. FireArrow.

So I just got caught up in the thread, and damn, so many great arguments. I swear I end up changing my mind every new post that comes around, but After those last few, I am against a FireArrow lynch, at least for this phase. Not being a part of the union, I really can't say for sure that Toby and his gang of mysterious "humans" are who they say they are. I sent in my claim, and continue to regret it. I could have just told my enemy my identity, and now am at their mercy. (Toby, you promised!)

Basically here is my perspective from my "in the dark" position: I see a potentially cautious seer getting overshadowed and clinging to life by a thread, at the hands of a supposed "Leader of a group I know nothing about." I don't particularly like either side of this unfair tug-of-war, but I see more of a threat in this "Shadowy Union" than in FireArrow. I'm seeing a man being cornered by wolves, if you will. I could be completely incorrect about this all; that just means that the humans are more thirsty for blood than the wolves are!

I PROPOSE: If you are NOT a part of Toby's Union, PM me and we'll form our own small alliance of the remaining polayers. Not necessarily against Toby, but just to unite those of us who aren't in an alliance. Lets see just how many people are actually in Toby's Union.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL WHAT IS THIS


Opting for FireArrow - Olimar12345 - mariolegofan as Wolves.

FireArrow is almost certainly a Wolf.  In addition to it making no sense to claim to an uncounterclaimed Role, a claimed Seer just so happened to seer a counterclaimed Seer Red without prompting?  It's also noteworthy that there's no rational reason for the real Seer to make up a seering, since if he's discovered to be wrong, his ploy ends.  Literally the only way for NocturneOfShadow to be Human at this point is if he's Miller.  But seeing as he's counterclaimed Seer, he's brought his own downfall.

We're approaching Insta, so I'll hold off on voting for now, but FireArrow should most certainly be our lynch for today.

[mikey]

FireArrow is almost certainly a Wolf.  In addition to it making no sense to claim to an uncounterclaimed Role, a claimed Seer just so happened to seer a counterclaimed Seer Red without prompting?  It's also noteworthy that there's no rational reason for the real Seer to make up a seering, since if he's discovered to be wrong, his ploy ends.  Literally the only way for NocturneOfShadow to be Human at this point is if he's Miller.  But seeing as he's counterclaimed Seer, he's brought his own downfall.

Do you mean FireArrow?  Because I didn't claim seer lol

Mashi for seer 2014

[Mashi]

Yeah, hahaha, sorry, it's hard posting while eating Tostitos!!!

Also, it's generally a not good idea to publicly discuss whom you think are Specials, by the way!!!

Not that I need any seerings since I got these Wolves down already. B)

[Sebastian]

Off topic, but I just received this fucking lovely PM from MLF:

Anyone else want to join in?

Btw, this was a hoax.....pretty risky move on my part though....

[blueflower999]

Btw, this was a hoax.....pretty risky move on my part though....

It was a hoax meaning... you're going to be active, or not?

[Sebastian]

It was a hoax meaning... you're going to be active, or not?

Um...yeah I'll be active.

[blueflower999]

Um...yeah I'll be active.

In that case, you should claim your role to Toby if you haven't already.

[Sebastian]

In that case, you should claim your role to Toby if you haven't already.

Yes, I have. I'll just I'm pretty deep in already and have been active this whole time.....quietly

[mikey]

Yes, I have. I'll just I'm pretty deep in already and have been active this whole time.....quietly

Tip: That's something you don't really want to say.  I know from experience lol

[FireArrow]

i]weren't any[/i].  FireArrow is claiming that we should lynch inactives when that was literally his first post in the thread.

ok
 

Not to mention that the logic is flawed anyway.  Wolves win when Humans are inactive.  If Wolves are ever inactive, it's because the Humans are too.  You'll be hard pressed to possibly find a game where Humans lost when they were active and the Wolves weren't.

There were inactive humans, my goal was to force them and the wolves most likely hiding among them, to be active. I've stated this, and I fail to see why it's flawed logic.

Flawed prompt, it's practically impossible to properly gauge activity based on Night 1 and early Day 1.  There's little to go off of and many Players become more active as the game continues. Despite his weak reasoning, FireArrow continues to push a lynch on the hypothetical inactives, whom he fails to name until prompted to do so.

Those are usually wolves. Game plan usually consists of... exactly that.

There's the spontaneous vote for me despite literally just having posted that we shouldn't post with haste.

Because as I said, I could change it. Obviously humans would never make a hasty vote *cough* *cough*

LOOOOOOOOOL
"firearrow isn't a bullet-proof candidate"
yet you voted for him like 3 posts ago here:
LOLOLOLOLOLOL WHAT IS THIS

Maybe Olimar and I are just bad players, because I don't see what you find so repulsive about tentative votes.

Opting for FireArrow - Olimar12345 - mariolegofan as Wolves.

I can see myself as Olimar's parter, but MLF seems kinda random. You should go back and read what those PMs were.

FireArrow is almost certainly a Wolf.  In addition to it making no sense to claim to an uncounterclaimed Role, a claimed Seer just so happened to seer a counterclaimed Seer Red without prompting?  It's also noteworthy that there's no rational reason for the real Seer to make up a seering, since if he's discovered to be wrong, his ploy ends.  Literally the only way for NocturneOfShadow to be Human at this point is if he's Miller.  But seeing as he's counterclaimed Seer, he's brought his own downfall.

Which makes more sense:
1) A human wanted to play overly safe and seer Toby before claiming.
2) A wolf waited a day for the role to already be claimed before claiming, thus bringing is own downfall.

Obviously I can't be a stupid human, I must be an exponentially more stupid wolf! /logic of this thread

I'm really tempted to change my vote to you, while Jon's behavior is... really wolfy. I'm thinking that you're the fake seer, but if I changed my vote...
wow such ambivalence
wow such wolf

:/

[Jon]

I can see myself as Olimar's parter

Is this an admission of guilt

[Mashi]

It's hypocritical to say "Let's lynch inactives!" when you literally haven't posted at all in the thread prior.  Knowing you yourself are an active, if you were Human, you would be forced to concede that there must be Human inactives among all the inactives.

The reason your logic is flawed is that it's absolutely incorrect to believes that Wolves win from being inactive.  The only time you will ever see the Wolves win when they're inactive is when the Humans are at least equally inactive.  You keep making claims that Wolves are generally inactive on NSM, but that's untrue.

Having a poor justification for making a hasty vote doesn't change that it's a hasty vote.  I can vote for Toby right now and change it later, but it would still be a silly thing to do, considering that he's confirmed Brutal Human.
Olimar12345's vote on you is hypocritical because I suspect he's trying to look Human by voting for you, but yet still trying to get the lynch off of you because you're Partners.  It's a desperation Wolf tactic.


The second possibility makes more sense than the first, but you're making it a fallacy of false dilemma and adding your own bias to both.


FireArrow does make a fair point that if he is a Wolf, he has played a poor game.  So exceptionally poor, in fact, that I'm starting to rethink my position on him.  But I can't really see why a false claiming Wolf or Traitor would decide to make a Red seering on Night 1.  It would really only make sense coming from a Traitor that wanted to attempt to waste two lynches.  That FireArrow's seering result is utterly useless doesn't help his case either.

Even if FireArrow does end up being Seer, his flip this Phase is necessary, I feel.  We can't keep him alive and be paranoid for the rest of the game.  The best alternative I can think of would be to lynch whom we suspect to be his Partners (for me, Olimar12345 and mariolegofan) and see their flips, but that's a roundabout and risky manner of verifying FireArrow's illegitimacy.

[FireArrow]

Is this an admission of guilt

It's an admission of solid logic, assuming I'm a wolf.

I find it funny how you can completely ignore my accusation of you and the holes in the argument, then swoop down as if me being a wolf is fact. Sounds like a wolf riding the band wagon, why do that hard work of trying to make a good argument when you've already got this in the bag? (Then again, everyone's been making shitty arguments and ignoring my responses.)

I'm gonna try this again:
What makes me less trustworthy than this other seer? Don't answer in a way I've already responded to (i.e. you claimed day 1, you want to lynch inactives, etc.) If those are you're only pieces of evidence, then you're gonna have to *gasps* read what I posted and come up with a counterargument. If you can't, then your argument is wrong. If you still vote for me, then your just stupid.

[fank009]

Mashi, why is MLF suspicious other than inactive?

FA, why are you suspicious? Red seering, that is all. Your flip is now necesarry to (IMO) move the game forward and develop some leans from the flip (although it looks set in stone, its that time where I overcomplicate things and throw a wrench in simplicity

Jon, why you tunnel so much?

[FireArrow]

It's hypocritical to say "Let's lynch inactives!" when you literally haven't posted at all in the thread prior.  Knowing you yourself are an active, if you were Human, you would be forced to concede that there must be Human inactives among all the inactives.

The reason your logic is flawed is that it's absolutely incorrect to believes that Wolves win from being inactive.  The only time you will ever see the Wolves win when they're inactive is when the Humans are at least equally inactive.  You keep making claims that Wolves are generally inactive on NSM, but that's untrue.

Let me summarize the games I've played on NSM:

Game of Wolves: This is where most of my reasoning comes from. The whole stuff with fank, olimar, me, liggy etc. was honestly really exciting and fun. When the humans just magically die from some stupid winter, I go to post game to see that the wolves were just the moderately inactive people staying out of the drama. I was pissed because here I was having a fun game, but a fun useless game.

Game of Doors (don't remember the name): I was a wolf and won by manipulating fank (because he taught me what he looks for in tells, I just gave him everything he was looking for.) I wasn't particularly active, I just got him to trust me then rode the waves home (I think you were my partner in this aswell.

That's it. Is my sample size poor? Yes. But from what I've seen, wolves win by being inactive and staying innocuous, then becoming active later to push lynches against for suspicious, active players.

Having a poor justification for making a hasty vote doesn't change that it's a hasty vote.  I can vote for Toby right now and change it later, but it would still be a silly thing to do, considering that he's confirmed Brutal Human.
Olimar12345's vote on you is hypocritical because I suspect he's trying to look Human by voting for you, but yet still trying to get the lynch off of you because you're Partners.  It's a desperation Wolf tactic.

But how does a hasty vote make me a wolf? Don't wolves usually avoid voting to early? They inactively try to look like they're active (if that makes sense) then they join the bandwaggon.

The second possibility makes more sense than the first, but you're making it a fallacy of false dilemma and adding your own bias to both.

What's the dilemma isn't false, we're either partners or not. If you mean something else, please clarify.

Honestly, I don't care what Olimar does, or if you vote him or not. He's not playing like a wolf or a human, he's playing like he has no idea what he's doing. He supports me, decides that I'm a wolf, supports me again, than finally decides I'm a wolf. He does all of that without ever responding directly, all the while coming up with the most pointless plan I've ever seen. He's like the definition of what I hate about this game right now (along with Jon, oh god.)

FireArrow does make a fair point that if he is a Wolf, he has played a poor game.  So exceptionally poor, in fact, that I'm starting to rethink my position on him.  But I can't really see why a false claiming Wolf or Traitor would decide to make a Red seering on Night 1.  It would really only make sense coming from a Traitor that wanted to attempt to waste two lynches.  That FireArrow's seering result is utterly useless doesn't help his case either.

I LOVE YOU MASHI
you actually read me posts ;_;

In response to your second point, considering toby is playing hero and never once PMed me, I have absolutely no idea what's going on through seer 2's head. Could he be a traitor, idk. Noc being the traitor does have a few inconsistencies, so I suppose that option is entirely possible. Maybe he's just a wolf that made a bad decision, that logic seems to be a enough for the whole thread to vote me, why not him?

Even if FireArrow does end up being Seer, his flip this Phase is necessary, I feel.  We can't keep him alive and be paranoid for the rest of the game.  The best alternative I can think of would be to lynch whom we suspect to be his Partners (for me, Olimar12345 and mariolegofan) and see their flips, but that's a roundabout and risky manner of verifying FireArrow's illegitimacy.

We could combine it with my plan (lynch me day 2) but the insight we get from that is kinda.... meh, considering that there's a green wolf.

My plan: Let me live the night, see what the wolves do. Even if they try to frame me, we know if we get the REVVIVVEEERRR SEEEEDD or not tomorrow, so I'm perfectly cool with outing myself day 2 so you guys can revive me. If the wolves get it, well, we can talk about it then. If we lynch me today for the card flip, we take a big risk that can be avoided.

The question is who else can we lynch today other than me. This post makes me think your human, because a wolf would never let up on lynching. In my head, this clears both you and mael (not Olimar for obvious reasons.) Shit, I just realized how much bigger our alliance would be if I could convince you guys I'm the seer, but I digress.

Possibilities:
MLF: Sketchy af (I've been active only behind the scenes ;;;]]]]), could give us a bit of insight on me.
Olimar: Um, senseless af. He's like a chicken with his head cut off. I'm neutral on this, but people seem to support it. Could also give insight on me.
Jon: Burn it with fire. I've already expressed my reasons.
Blueflower: Same with jon, but to a lesser extent.
NoS: He claims to be traitor, yet he obviously supports humans. Toby makes a case against him, then later defends him.
Yugi/BDS: Lynch inactives