TWG LXX: Village of Masks- A Classic Mafia

[mikey]

Well this is interesting...

Also, player list please Nocturne?

sorry, I'm using a tiny tablet right now and copy paste is a bit complex, I'll work on it though

[The_Subjective_Thought]

Big posts night one get you wolfed.

Noted.

D:

[Mashi]

There are three main scenarios regarding what happened with last Night's seering:
1. Yugi and maelstrom are both Humans, but maelstrom was painted Red.
2. Yugi is a Human and maelstrom is a Wolf.
3. Yugi is a Wolf and maelstron is Human, but malestrom was painted Red.

I'm most inclined to believe either Option 2 or 3 is likeliest.  I highly doubt that Wolves chose to paint maelstrom and that Yugi decided to seer him simultaneously.

I don't like Yugi's reasoning for the seering, but his explanation seems fair, and I'm not so sure he would have mentioned the three Players he did if he were a Wolf thinking of a good fake seering.

[Maelstrom]

Now, time for some math

1. Yugi and maelstrom are both Humans, but maelstrom was painted Red.

Probability: 6/8 for Yugi, 3/87 for me, so .2815
Keep in mind the probability for this is higher because the wolves wouldn't randomly paint: They''d paint the most likely ones to be seer'd

2. Yugi is a Human and maelstrom is a Wolf.

Probability: 6/8 for Yugi, 2/8 for me, so .1875

3. Yugi is a Wolf and maelstrom is Human, but malestrom was painted Red.

Probability: 2/8 for yugi, 6/6 for me, so .25

Conclusion: The odds point to options 1 and 3. Option 2 is still there, but a little further behind.
And my name's not maelstron

[Mashi]

sry malestronk

Statistics won't be so helpful in this scenario (and you did them wrong anyway, sorry!).  Option 1 is actually the least likely (it requires Yugi to have seered you and for the Wolves to have painted you).  In fact, the probability of you being painted would likely be less than 2/6, since I don't think you're necessarily more likely than others to be seered.

That being said, Option 1 is still a totally feasible possibility.  I just think it's less likely since, in my opinion, maelstrom is a weird seering and painting choice.

[Maelstrom]

Ack forgot about that. I haven't done any math since april. The wolves would only have 2 people they would worry about being seer'd green, with one wolfing and two paintings. I'm also the newest player here, so it's harder to judge by my playstyle  because you don't have much to compare it to. Or the wolves anticipated who was the most obvious seering choice and did the least likely, or the middle, or a combination of everything.

[Dude]

maelstrom.

[fank009]

Quick mobile post with quick thoughts

-a part of me is not liking maels defence, but it reminds me of something.
-yugi, I dont like your explanation of wolves being helpful to scrap by inactivity vote.
-Mashi, mael is a weird painting and seering choice, no alarm bells ringing? Rememver, yugi is seer, and wolves independantly paint. Mael being an easy lynch with his nonsense defense actually makes him a good painting target.

[Mashi]

fank009, what does maelstorm's defence remind you of?  So do you think maelstorm is a weird choice for seering/painting or not?

[fank009]

fank009, what does maelstorm's defence remind you of?  So do you think maelstorm is a weird choice ""for seering/painting or not?

-Something I would make back in the day.
-More of a weird seering given yugi's response. Mael had weak defences last game, and fmpov, makes sense for a painting.

Question for you mashi,
Why is it weird that two "independant" events occured?.
Who else may have been painted last night?(Your top picks)
 

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Keep in mind the probability for this is higher because the wolves wouldn't randomly paint: They''d paint the most likely ones to be seer'd

I'd say that it depends on who the wolves are, actually. If the wolves are the people who are most likely to be seered, they'd likely go for more random choices (or at least I'd think that they would, given the other limited options in such a case).

[Mashi]

I like BlackDragonSlayer's point.  I neglected to consider the Wolves' perspective, but his reasoning makes sense.

Seering and paintings are more or less dependent.  The Wolves don't want to paint someone who won't be seered.  I find maelstrom to have been an odd choice because he's new and there are other potential seering choices.  Before BlackDragonSlayer's comment, I would have viewed the optimal seering targets to be out of those whom one would think would be least likely to be wolfed or painted.  Whether that would be Bubbles, Dude, you, etc. is subjective, but I found it odd that Yugi's reasoning didn't take into account paintings.  That being said, I suppose that could be best explained because Yugi was trying to hit a Wolf, so paintings wouldn't matter, since Wolves are always Red.

Currently more inclined to believe that maelstrom's defence seems more Wolfish than Humany, but I would rather see how this plays out (as should everyone else).

[Maelstrom]

Yeah, I guess I am an odd choice for seering/painting.  As for early activity, as someone brought up, I posted a lot due to the lack of posts thereof.

[fank009]

Mael may look like he's posting is scummy, his psyche is telling me something else. He isnt helping his case. Though he's played how many games? You have to ask, can he pull off a dumbtelling bluff

Also this, wolves can be seers too.
Fmpov at the moment one of mael/yugi may be scum. Somethings telling me they are both villas though.
As I said, mael looks like a easy lynch.

[Maelstrom]

Though he's played how many games?

This is my 3rd.