TWG LXX: Village of Masks- A Classic Mafia

[fank009]

Mael, I suggest you follow TST's advice before you get lynched for posting nothing productive

[Bubbles]

I think mael was a weird person to seer night one. If I had gotten the seer power, I would have chosen someone who I didn't think was a wolf because a green result would clear their name instead of leaving a confusing red. I doubt the wolves would paint the same person they plan on wolfing, so that means on Night 1 5/7 people are red. The green person would probably be wolfed the next night, but at least that eliminates one suspect for the day lynching

However, mael seems like a reasonable person to paint. As a fairly new player, it would be easier to lynch him than someone who is used to being put in the spotlight and attacked. If the wolves decided on the first two to paint and couldn't think of a third, mael would be a good choice

I'm pretty suspicious of mael right now but its more logical for Yugi to be a wolf (of the two anyway)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I think mael was a weird person to seer night one. If I had gotten the seer power, I would have chosen someone who I didn't think was a wolf because a green result would clear their name instead of leaving a confusing red. I doubt the wolves would paint the same person they plan on wolfing, so that means on Night 1 5/7 people are red. The green person would probably be wolfed the next night, but at least that eliminates one suspect for the day lynching

Seering a green person would just mean that they'd be wolfed the next night (and nothing would really be accomplished in the long run); if you seer somebody red, you at least get SOME sort of lead- which will hopefully lead to the person being questioned, which would lead to further discussion, which would (if all goes well) lead to finding a wolf.

...however, I would like to hear a bit more from Yugi about why he chose to seer Maelstrom (since everybody seems to think that it was already likely for Maelstrom to be painted). We definitely need to hear from the seer as well as the person seered (although I doubt that a wolf got the power Night 1, it's still a possibility- and, as I like to say, it's always good to look at all possibilities! ).

[Yugi]

...however, I would like to hear a bit more from Yugi about why he chose to seer Maelstrom

As in, why I chose to seer him over everyone else?

[Yugi]

I'm in the chat if you want to ask me any questions.

http://client01.chat.mibbit.com/?server=irc.NFnet.org&channel=%23TWGNSM

[BlackDragonSlayer]

As in, why I chose to seer him over everyone else?

That would be good.

[Yugi]

I considered him because I thought that he was major enough to possibly be a wolf trying to skip the gamely Day 1 inacitivity lynch, but not major enough to be a likely painting target. Honestly if I was a wolf I would have gone for "BDS, Fank, TST" as a painting, mostly because those players were probably the most notable night one.

For Reference:
TST > Fank > BDS > Bubbles > Maelstrom > Mashi > Dude > why would i seer myself

[fank009]

:/ Really should have done this earlier, but oh well.
(Jargon note: Villa= villager)
Leans.

I think mael was a weird person to seer night one. If I had gotten the seer power, I would have chosen someone who I didn't think was a wolf because a green result would clear their name instead of leaving a confusing red. I doubt the wolves would paint the same person they plan on wolfing, so that means on Night 1 5/7 people are red. The green person would probably be wolfed the next night, but at least that eliminates one suspect for the day lynching

However, mael seems like a reasonable person to paint. As a fairly new player, it would be easier to lynch him than someone who is used to being put in the spotlight and attacked. If the wolves decided on the first two to paint and couldn't think of a third, mael would be a good choice

I'm pretty suspicious of mael right now but its more logical for Yugi to be a wolf (of the two anyway)

I considered him because I thought that he was major enough to possibly be a wolf trying to skip the gamely Day 1 inacitivity lynch, but not major enough to be a likely painting target. Honestly if I was a wolf I would have gone for "BDS, Fank, TST" as a painting, mostly because those players were probably the most notable night one.

For Reference:
TST > Fank > BDS > Bubbles > Maelstrom > Mashi > Dude > why would i seer myself

bubbles in a nutshell explains the mindset of yugi being scum. that second quote, is somewhat of a redeeming quality. TST was lynched, he wouldnt be in his list if yugi was a wolf. (some pyschology at work, thinking like a wolf/human etc...)
Regardless, I think yugi's villa at this stage.

You specifically said that the seering person should claim AT NIGHT. If they claim AT NIGHT, they will be killed, and thus, I assume that the seering will thus be blocked (clarification please Nocturne?).

Villa points, thinking about mael gives some credability IF mael is human, some hugging there, but above points are pointing to a villa lean, nothing really swaying yet.

Words

I can really go into detail as on my thoughts on mael.
His night/day 1 posting is drastically different. (being on the defence...) its how he does the defence that somewhat gives me a villa lean on him. naturally it is also a scum lean as well, though his night one in other games I feel is somewhat similar. Villa lean for now, though as mentioned before, if he doesnt chuck in some ideas...

More words

Too tired to bring up the exact quote, I dont like the initial attack on mael. sounds too much of something that I would do as scum. the idea of pushing the fact that mael wouldn't be a painting target to make him a wolf by virtue. (hence lynched)
the only good thing I feel mashi has given is that he has eliminated the idea of him/mael being partners.

it was a "good", "convincing" argument (I dont know how to use quotation marks properly) that may have led people down that path (dude, im looking at you). but unfortunatley doesnt really get past me.

Mashi not putting his money where his mouth is is also for me a telling sign.

Everyone else I dont have a lean on.

[Mashi]

fank009 and maelstrom for Wolves.
At least, I think it has potential, since I have no idea what fank009 is going on about. 

His night/day 1 posting is drastically different. (being on the defence...) its how he does the defence that somewhat gives me a villa lean on him. naturally it is also a scum lean as well, though his night one in other games I feel is somewhat similar. Villa lean for now, though as mentioned before, if he doesnt chuck in some ideas...

He's Human, but he's not Human???  This isn't even an analysis, this is just conflicting statements chocked together.

And why are you even suspicious of me?  Bubbles and I are in agreement about the seering choice being odd, yet you view Bubbles as Human but not me?

That fank009 specifically singled out my stating that maelstrom could be a Wolf (when I also stated that Yugi could be a Wolf), which I think is telling of an association between them.  fank009's focusing too much on maelstrom for my own liking too.


Green seerings versus Red seerings aren't drastically different.  I would actually lean more on agreeing with Bubbles that Green seerings are slightly better.  They confirm the Green Player and semi-confirm the Seer Player.  The more Green seerings there are, the worse the Wolves' position is.  Night 1 Red seerings have 40% chance of hitting a Wolf, Night 2 is 50% (25% if a Wolf is lynched Day 1), and Night 3 is 33.333...%.  We have to lynch one Wolf by Night 3, otherwise we lose.
Conversely, a Green seering Night 1 gives us a 33.333...% chance of lynching a Wolf, Night 2 a 40% chance (20% if a Wolf was lynched Day 1), Night 3 a 50% chance.  This is excluding the Seers being semi-confirmed, but their existence raises the percentages slightly, since the more Greens confirmed, the more forced wolfings the Wolves need to make.

Overall though, there are pros and cons to both, but they're more or less worth the same to us.


maelstrom, do you have anything to say regarding recent posts?  How do you feel in regard to fank009 defending you?  Do you think Yugi is a Wolf?

[Maelstrom]

Right now, I'm thinking Yugi. He didn't have a good reason for seering me, and it just doesn't add up. Everyone so far is right. I'm nowhere near the best target for a seering. And I'm not sure I'd say fank was defending me

And a contradiction: Yugi said he seer'd me because I was one of the 3 most active people night one. But then he says

Honestly if I was a wolf I would have gone for "BDS, Fank, TST" as a painting, mostly because those players were probably the most notable night one.
TST > Fank > BDS > Bubbles > Maelstrom > Mashi > Dude > why would i seer myself

Why would I be so low on his suspicions when he said he seer'd me because I was suspicious?

Yugi

[Dude]

Anyone feel like chatting?

[Dude]

Yugi

[fank009]

Mashi: fanks talking bs.doesnt makr sense, must be a wolf.

Pokes beginning of post. I Guess I shouldn't make points when I'm tired

I will properly rip into everything you misread later when I'm not mobile and have a clear head for it.


In other news, hi dude, may chat later, like your contributions to thread.
Also nice train of thought there mael.

[Mashi]

Meh, Phase ends in 15 minutes and it doesn't look like anyone else is showing.

maelstrom brought a decent point about being a middle suspicion for Yugi, though I think Yugi having a middle suspicion on him may have been why he seered him (less likely to be painted).  I'm not totally sold on maelstrom (and fank009 by association), but doesn't look like many share my opinion.  Sorry if you're Human, Yugi!

Yugi

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm nowhere near the best target for a seering.

Maybe that's why he seered you? Because if you're not likely to be seered, you're not likely to be painted (though everybody else says that you were ), which would lead to a correct result (just thinking about why he specifically chose you)?