TWG LXIV: The Dangerous Flora and Fauna of Umbra

[FireArrow]

So, right now, I'm pretty certain of Bird's humanity:

1. If he were a wolf, he wouldn't be voting me, someone who supports him. (Note: his comment on me "backing him up to look human" was before I changed my vote to him.)
2. He didn't have a dramatic "Please believe me I'm the miller" reaction to being seered red. Infact, it was one of the last things he responded to.

As for my suspicions:

Davy, Toby, Mr. Tanooki Suit, zoroark

All of which because either
a) they haven't contributed much. (Davy)
b) Their contributions were senseless and/or just repetitions of what someone already stated. (everyone else.)

Because this is zooarks first game, it makes sense that he'd act that way. I feel like it's a shot in the dark between the other 3 as I've only seen them play one role. I'm going with Davy as he's made absolutely zero bold moves, while at least Toby did the "it must be a NSMer" which actually makes sense to me (which is why Davy>Tanooki.) Actually, didn't he vote me before anyone else? I can't remember.

In my defense:

Well I can't really make one, as the reasoning seems to be more along the lines of 'the most suspicious of a bunch of non-suspicious day 1 people.' It's not that big of a deal if I get lynched because I haven't really been active enough to cement myself as useful. Well, I guess I can say I wouldn't make a post this big if I was a wolf, but that's self meta. 

[davy]

Sorry for being inactive guys. I've been pretty buzy. I'm going to make an analysis post like those from TWG LX later today, and then I hope I can be more active later in the game.

[braix]

Busy you say? ewe

[mikey]

At this point in the game there's really nobody we can be safe to lynch.

I just don't know...

however at the moment there are 3 davy votes and 3 FireArrow votes.  I still think bird is a wolf but if I need to I could switch my vote, don't want to though

[Greg]

Okay so one more thing's come up in Bird's favour, and I'm feeling pretty much obligated to switch my vote off.

[17:57:47]   bird   If I am a red wolf, Greg or davy is probably my green wolf partner
[17:57:52]   bird   Otherwise why would I have asked to have them seered?

This argument doesn't actually make sense because the wolves don't know each other! Nobody pointed it out at the time and I was idling in the chatroom, but I really doubt Bird would have made an argument like this if he was actually a wolf!

I guess I'll switch to Davy for now, until we see his planned big post.

[Toby]

I didn't realize the wolves don't know each other...

That changes a lot of things from my view.

And FireArrow, I don't see how my posts have been senseless or repetitions of what others have said, part of the reasoning for your vote is something that I said! You're basically contradicting yourself.
I also don't quite understand your certainty on Bird's humanity from those two points. You're behaving odd.

[Greg]

Nocturne is telling me he wants me to take my vote off Davy while he figures something out, so safety on TST.

[davy]

Big post to the rescue!

Vote count so far:
Bird: Bird Toby FireArrow
FireArrow: FireArrow Bird Davy
Mr. Tanooki Suit: Mr. Tanooki Suit FireArrow
NocturneOfShadow: NocturneOfShadow Bird
davy: davy
Toby: davy
Greg: Greg Bird Davy The_Subjective_Thought
zoroark1264: zoroark1264 FireArrow
The_Subjective_Thought: The_Subjective_Thought Mr. Tanooki Suit

Votes on players:
FireArrow: 3
Bird: 1
davy: 3
Mr. Tanooki Suit: 1
The_Subjective_Thought: 1

Short suspicion list:
1. Toby
2. Mr. Tanooki Suit
3. Bird

Bird

^I don't think we should base the fact that Boo Guy got lynched off of who we vote for.
But we do know that
A) A few people were in favor of the idea
B) A few people were skeptical it would work

I think both of these are primary wolf targets either because hey wolf doesn't want to lynch himself or they cover it up and hope that it makes them look human.  In fact, while they make themselves look human, they might even...
Come up with a way to stop it?
...
I'm voting Bird.

I agree with Bird on this one. I think he would have pointed this out regardless of his role.

And another thing on the Greg "we should kill the wolfsbane" thing... It's even more unlikely that the wolves would attack the wolfsbane every night since:
a) They don't know who the wolfsbane is, just a single red role who they probably wouldn't want to attack.
b) There's a wolf shaman, who can spot blues and wolf them instead of letting randomness do the job.

Bird, I'd like you to explain why the wolves wouldn't want to attack a single red role. I think it still would be a great idea because they eighter unfortunately hit the miller, or they get a free human kill without players being able to deduce who the wolf is due to the wolfing.

While your second point makes sense, that only works if the shaman had already spotted blues before the wolfing, and even then it could still be the herring.

Okay so one more thing's come up in Bird's favour, and I'm feeling pretty much obligated to switch my vote off.

[17:57:47]   bird   If I am a red wolf, Greg or davy is probably my green wolf partner
[17:57:52]   bird   Otherwise why would I have asked to have them seered?

This argument doesn't actually make sense because the wolves don't know each other! Nobody pointed it out at the time and I was idling in the chatroom, but I really doubt Bird would have made an argument like this if he was actually a wolf!

I guess I'll switch to Davy for now, until we see his planned big post.

While the above do point in favour of Birds humanity, I do think that Bird would make a move like this. What's more is that it doesn't really make sense for Bird to point out at all, because there are way more reasons to ask me and Greg to be seered.

I got to go now, but I'll post the second part of this post as soon as possible.

[Bird]

Bird, I'd like you to explain why the wolves wouldn't want to attack a single red role. I think it still would be a great idea because they eighter unfortunately hit the miller, or they get a free human kill without players being able to deduce who the wolf is due to the wolfing.

While your second point makes sense, that only works if the shaman had already spotted blues before the wolfing, and even then it could still be the herring.

While the above do point in favour of Birds humanity, I do think that Bird would make a move like this. What's more is that it doesn't really make sense for Bird to point out at all, because there are way more reasons to ask me and Greg to be seered.

I got to go now, but I'll post the second part of this post as soon as possible.

I don't think the wolves would kill a person they could get lynched instead. A red player will always be suspicious, no matter how human they may act, and wolfing a suspicious player is a waste of a wolfing. Additionally, I could be the other wolf's partner, or just an ordinary miller.

I think the wolves would do much better to aim for the seer/psychic than to aim for the wolfsbane every single phase. If the team of wolves is smart, the wolf shaman is going to do all the wolfing, so he can seer players before he chooses to kill them.

I think that if the wolves were certain that a certain player was the wolfsbane, I could definitely see them targeting that player every phase. But it's just as likely that they would be targeting their partner (bad), or the miller (somebody who could get lynched easily). It's just not what I would do if I were a wolf!

[mikey]

Hey davy mister "Big post" why do you think FA isn't suspicious like others?
Also want to see that toby suspicion

[davy]

I'm Back!

Mr. Tanooki Suit

Tanooki seems to me like someone trying to be human.

...You can't vote for yourself.

Mr. Tanooki Suit... Even though I HIGHLY doubt this is allowed.

His certainty of not being able to vote for oneself is something that would more likely be a human move than a wolf move. I can't really explain why I think it's a wolf move, but there is a difference between the way Bird opposed to the plan and the way Tanooki opposed to the plan.

I'm inclined to agree that Bird is a likely human, and I don't think we should lynch him! He wholeheartedly supported removing the abused game mechanic, something which a wolf likely wouldn't do if they wanted to stay alive because that's suspicious (sort of).

I'll put a safety vote one Fire Arrow until we figure out who the most likely wolf is. Yeah I know it's silly to just coast through, but it's kinda hard to do anything useful when you're just a human with no leads to go off of.

Bird is red?

Well that means he's likely the Wolfsbane/Miller. I'm sold on his humanity, tbh, and even a red seering won't change my mind!

Defending another player, especially with so much certainty and without much reason (the only thing Tanooki mentions is removing the abused game mechanic which is something that bird would do regardless of role), is, in my opinion, one of the biggest trying to be human moves, because a wolf wouldn't gain much by doing it (except making people believe he's a human), while (s)he also wouldn't lose much by doing it.


Toby and My Defence

Oops I'm here. I suggest the seer share his results with nocturne.

And hey nocturne, I wasn't active when I was your partner! I just didn't post 10 times instead of putting it in the one post. I'm just really busy most of the time now with work.

And I'll beat you up first sage (or is it mr. Trampoline suit??).

I'd say the wolfing is strange and probably came from an nsm player. I'm going to place a vote on Davy for now in case I don't get back.

I was going to answer that later but I could do it now.

I thought it would be someone from nsm rather than llf because boo guy literally posted he was from llf in his signup. I've never played with Booguy before so I don't think he plays often, and for anyone who plays at llf I doubt they'd wolf him. I'm guessing it's either a newer player or perhaps someone who only plays on NSM (or both!) I voted Davy because he seems like the type of guy that would try frame someone from llf or take a wolfing like that.

I'll try find evidence of this later.

In my defence: I have never wolfed a player to frame someone night one, and it's also a strategy I dislike using at the start of the game because:
1. Players have to realise that someone might have a reason for the wolfing.
2. Players should not realise that I'm trying to frame someone.

What makes me suspicious of you is that this theory seems really far-fetched. It seems to me like a way to be active, while not really trying to help the humans.

I'm  actually curious as to why Bird would even suggest the plan wouldn't work because of a rule certain hosts have. It was because of Bird that our plan wouldn't work!

He's also been incredibly jumpy and making all these different points that just seem a little quick thought. Him also using my point on Davy against me along with an invalid point smart Bird would have had backed up is really off for him.

I'm going to hold my vote just now because I should make it before the phase ends but we definetly need to be careful with Bird.

I'd rather lose a fun game than win a game that wasn't fun. Bird's mentioning of the reason why the plan wouldn't work seems to me like giving BDS the opportunity to keep this game fun. This seems like you're trying to frame Bird.

I haven't really been paying attention to Bird's play style in previous games, so I can't say if his behaviour is off. What I can say however, is that I like his jumpiness this game because it gives the humans multiple insights, which they can agree with or not (I know one cannot agree or not with an insight, but this sentence is already very difficult for a foreigner like me, and you'll probably understand what I mean).

Going to be in the chat for a bit, and then I'll decide my vote.

[davy]

I don't think the wolves would kill a person they could get lynched instead. A red player will always be suspicious, no matter how human they may act, and wolfing a suspicious player is a waste of a wolfing. Additionally, I could be the other wolf's partner, or just an ordinary miller.

I think the wolves would do much better to aim for the seer/psychic than to aim for the wolfsbane every single phase. If the team of wolves is smart, the wolf shaman is going to do all the wolfing, so he can seer players before he chooses to kill them.

I think that if the wolves were certain that a certain player was the wolfsbane, I could definitely see them targeting that player every phase. But it's just as likely that they would be targeting their partner (bad), or the miller (somebody who could get lynched easily). It's just not what I would do if I were a wolf!

Well Bird, you've just moved up my suspicion list.
I think your reasoning can be summed up as:
1. The wolves don't want to kill the miller because that player might get lynched anyway.
2. The Master Wolf doesn't want to kill his partner.
3. The Shaman should be making the wolfing so that he can kill players according to the seering.

My responses:
1. There is a chance that the miller is convincing enough that he won't get lynched (this is especially the case when you are the miller). It's still a 50% chance of hitting the wolvesbane.
2. This is what makes me suspicious of you, because of your later "slip up" that I or Greg would be your partner, which, as greg pointed out, wouldn't make sense if you are a wolf. However, now that you back up an earlier post by arguing that the Master Wolf could target his partner shows that you actually were aware.
3. I already said that this only works if he gets the correct seerings. If he happens to get a blue seering, then that allows him to select his next wolf target. If he gets a red seering, he's free to wolf that player because he knows that that player isn't a wolf. However, most of the players are green, so likely his seering result won't help him decide his target (because a green seering could be his partner).

Hey davy mister "Big post" why do you think FA isn't suspicious like others?

Because I do not agree with their reasoning.

Tanooki Suit safety'd, Bird didn't give a real reason as far as I know and Zoroark just said he thought he was suspicious.

[davy]

Chat with Nocturne:

Spoiler

*** davy joined #TWGNSM
It is now NiGhT 3. (Yes, I really like that joke.)
Topic set by Liggy on Mon Nov 04 2013 03:18:25 GMT+0100 (West-Europa (standaardtijd))
22:07   davy   hi
22:08   Nocturne   hi
22:08   Nocturne   greg prob isn't here but if you say something he'll respond eventually
22:08   davy   I'm currently responding to Bird's and your post.
22:11   Nocturne   just so you know you still have your vote on yourself
22:13   Nocturne   we should probably focus on finding a blue
22:13   davy   I know, going to remove it soon
22:15   davy   Then how do you suggest we do that?
22:16   Nocturne   I dunno
22:17   Nocturne   what does the psychic do again
22:17   Nocturne   hang on
22:17   Nocturne   okay yeah
22:17   Nocturne   so the Psychic should claim to greg maybe?
22:17   Nocturne   he was seered green
22:18   davy   Greg could be the master wolf.
22:19   Nocturne   nah
22:19   Nocturne   he didn't know that the wolves didn't know each other
22:20   davy   That was bird
22:20   Nocturne   no I was talking to greg
22:20   Nocturne   earlier in day
22:20   davy   It was a post by greg, but he quoted bird
22:20   davy   can you quote that chat?
22:20   Nocturne   and I said something to the effect of him being a wolf
22:20   Nocturne   and he said something like great you're on to us
22:21   Nocturne   I mean he could have said it like that on purpose
22:21   Nocturne   but the way he phrased it made it unlikely
22:22   davy   Still, I think it's better to keep the psychic hidden for now.

[close]

I'm really uncertain who to vote for. I don't really think my points against Bird, Tanooki and Toby are strong enough to lead a lynch against them, but I also don't want to waste this phase by safetying.

Toby

I actually think Bird is more suspicious right now, but he already has quite a number of votes on him, and I also don't like voting him without waiting for his response (which is not the case with toby, because my point against him is much less respondable).

[davy]

quite a number of votes.

1 is a number.

Not making a real response to that mistake because it's late.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Vote count so far:
Bird: Bird Toby FireArrow
FireArrow: FireArrow Bird Davy
Mr. Tanooki Suit: Mr. Tanooki Suit FireArrow
NocturneOfShadow: NocturneOfShadow Bird
davy: davy Toby
Toby: davy
Greg: Greg Bird Davy The_Subjective_Thought
zoroark1264: zoroark1264 FireArrow
The_Subjective_Thought: The_Subjective_Thought Mr. Tanooki Suit

Votes on Players:
FireArrow: 3
Davy: 2
Bird: 1
Toby: 1
TST: 1
Mr. Tanooki Suit: 1

Phase ends in under an hour.