TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Fortunately, I don't have to convince you of anything.

Let's work from a different direction. Can you, without referencing any other posts, outline the reasons you think I'm a wolf? If you wanna do the same for FireArrow (and I know you do), that would be swell.

...what...

How can I not reference ANY other posts...? I'm not quite sure about the extent of your meaning of this phrase.

Though, for now, I'll say that just reading your posts since the beginning of the phase gives off a really wolfish, and even a bit overconfident, vibe, as if you expect people to believe you. The way you're presenting arguments against me, fank, and more recently, Thiannon, seem to show that you're just desperate (probably too strong of a word to use, but I'll use it anyway ) to find somebody to lynch or divide opinions enough to not have anybody killed, thus ending the game.

[Bird]

Sorry. I should know by now to be more clear with you! When I said without referencing any other posts, I meant that I didn't want you to reference any of your own posts, as you're prone to do. You can use posts/chatlogs by me and other people if you want.

I just want all the evidence laid out so I can respond to it. I can speak against your general points now though:

"your posts [... give] off a really wolfish, and even a bit overconfident, [sic] vibe, as if you expect people to believe you."
     Well, I don't know how to respond to a perceived "wolfish vibe" from me, but I can tell you that I always act pretty confident when I play. I'd actually argue I'm being markedly less bossy/confident this game, just because I've been misreading stuff/not paying attention/absent for important periods. It shouldn't matter though, as confidence doesn't point to me being a wolf. And the reason I expect people to believe me is because I'm human! If you don't expect people to believe you, your argument probably sucks anyway.

"The way you're presenting arguments against [BDS], fank, and more recently, Thiannon [...] show that you're just desperate [...] to find somebody to lynch"
     I won't disagree that my Thiannon post comes off as very desperate, but that's not because I'm a wolf throwing a Hail Mary or whatever. Desperate times call for desperate measures. If there's two wolves alive, that means every single human player needs to shoot the same wolf or else we lose. That means any argument made needs to convince all of the human players, and an argument like that needs to be strong... or from a different perspective, desperate. Regarding yourself and fank, I never made a single argument against either of you that could possibly be perceived as desperate to find somebody to lynch. For day phases 1 and 2, I was essentially indifferent to who we lynched.

"or divide opinions enough to not have anybody killed, thus ending the game."
     Did you overlook this post where I stressed how essential it was that we all vote for one player? A division of opinions existed long before my "BDS/Thiannon are wolves" post.

[FireArrow]

Bird has a really impressive argument with very little counterpoints. However, I don't think we should necessarily lynch the most suspicious person this phase, but the person with the most possible living wolf partners. As we all know, if there's 2 wolfs alive, we lose if we mislynch. If we lynch the person with the most compatibility, that maximizes our chances of not losing this phase.

Possible partners (excluding myself to avoid bias):

Thiannon: BDS and Greg are the only possible partners, everyone else here has been unnecessarily offensive on him to be compatible.
Bird: Pretty much only me, possibly Greg?
Fank: Only BDS, lol.
BDS: Everyone but me and Bird.
Greg: Everyone but fank.

Ehhh, that would mean we lynch Greg, which seems like an extremely risky idea this phase. Second place is BDS, which actually would work great since it correlates with Bird's Theory. Then again, Thiannon is by far the most suspicious player, and my logic could be skewed. Thoughts?

[Bird]

Log with Thiannon:

Spoiler

(6:27:10 PM) bird: How much time do you think you'll be able to spend online tonight?
(6:27:17 PM) Thiannon: Let's do it!
(6:27:24 PM) Thiannon: Maybe another fifteen minutes.
(6:27:32 PM) bird: Worst scheduling ever.
(6:27:39 PM) bird: Alright, well I guess I'll just outline why I think you're a wolf.
(6:27:39 PM) Thiannon: I have a mountain of dishes and an essay to write.
(6:27:52 PM) Thiannon: Yeah, my Mondays and Tuesdays suck this term.
(6:28:02 PM) Thiannon: Please do!
(6:28:10 PM) bird: From my perspective, only three players are suspicious: you, BDS and fank.
(6:28:28 PM) bird: Greg is cleared not just because of the gambit, but because of his first plan where he said we should bomb the humans. That's a pretty risky thing for a wolf to say.
(6:28:48 PM) bird: FireArrow because of that post I pointed out to you last time we spoke; the one that led you to comment "wow that's a good strategy"
(6:29:09 PM) bird: As I looked into the three players I found suspicious, I realized that you and BDS were extremely compatible partners, so I began to look at the two of you more in-depth.
(6:29:18 PM) bird: There were numerous instances where you backed one another up.
(6:29:30 PM) bird: (He said your stupid plans were good on night 1, you said you "didn't get" the BDS lynch)
(6:29:30 PM) Thiannon: Yeah, I know.
(6:29:45 PM) bird: Neither of you has suspected the other, seemingly without much reason.
(6:29:52 PM) Thiannon: BDS and I are phenomenally compatible.
(6:30:01 PM) bird: Alright, then we're on the same page.
(6:30:04 PM) bird: But why you over him?
(6:30:06 PM) bird: Two reasons.
(6:30:20 PM) bird: First: Greg thinks the wolves are fank/bds, fank thinks the wolves are you/greg
(6:30:36 PM) bird: I think I'll have an easier time getting greg to vote you than getting fank to vote bds.
(6:30:49 PM) bird: And I need four votes on one of the wolves to win.
(6:30:58 PM) bird: Next, you've recently made a few suspicious moves
(6:31:57 PM) bird: I thought it was extraordinarily odd, how as we chatted, you remarked that I was seeming more and more human. Then when I pointed out the FireArrow post to you, the one which I used to justify his humanity, and my ceaseless defending him, you commented that it was a good strategy. You proceeded to post a suspicion list with fank/bds as 1 and 2 with firearrow and i as 3 and 4.
(6:32:20 PM) bird: But then you make another post which says the polar opposite! Now you're gunning for firearrow and I this phase. Which from my perspective will guarantee a human loss.
(6:32:38 PM) Thiannon: You were pretty convincing!
(6:32:47 PM) bird: You also made a throwaway joke statement around the same time
(6:32:56 PM) bird: "not that this will placate the Thiannon/BDS shippers"
(6:33:06 PM) bird: Up until that point, I don't think anybody had seriously proposed the two of you as partners.
(6:33:15 PM) bird: So it seemed like a weird thing to say.
(6:33:27 PM) bird: BDS's laughing response was also exceedingly odd, since it really wasn't that funny
(6:33:29 PM) bird: really
(6:33:35 PM) bird: (no offense!!!!!)
(6:33:41 PM) Thiannon: Plus, I told you going into that conversation that you were my top suspicion.
(6:33:54 PM) bird: Doesn't matter given the more recent suspicion list.
(6:33:58 PM) bird: I think though
(6:34:01 PM) bird: The one thing that I can't let go
(6:34:05 PM) bird: Is that you still think FireArrow is a wolf.
(6:34:16 PM) bird: You're the one player I thought would be able to quickly grasp my logic.
(6:34:23 PM) bird: You did so with Nocturne/Nakah. You also agreed with me on Greg.
(6:34:29 PM) bird: But on FireArrow, you stubbornly assert we're wolf partners.
(6:34:38 PM) Thiannon: I think FA is a wolf because I think you are a wolf.
(6:35:05 PM) bird: How does me being a wolf translate to FireArrow also being a wolf?
(6:35:13 PM) bird: I've never defended a partner like this as a wolf.
(6:35:14 PM) bird: Ever!
(6:35:22 PM) Thiannon: You've defended him pretty we'll nonstop.
(6:35:32 PM) bird: ?
(6:35:53 PM) Thiannon: He's as compatible with you as BDS is with me.
(6:35:58 PM) bird: I disagree.
(6:36:16 PM) bird: I think there's more to compatibility than "oh he was willing to vote for him that one time"
(6:36:24 PM) bird: I think defending somebody to this degree also makes them unlikely partners.
(6:36:40 PM) bird: But let's drop that for a bit.
(6:36:44 PM) bird: I've made my case against you.
(6:36:45 PM) Thiannon: If no one was suspecting me/BDS, why did I draw so much attention to it?
(6:37:10 PM) bird: Well the idea is that it was a slip-up
(6:37:25 PM) bird: You sort of didn't realize that nobody had brought up the possibility of you two being partners when you made that joke.
(6:37:37 PM) Thiannon: You're arguing I'ma wolf by telling everyone else I'm brilliant, and telling me I'm terrible.
(6:38:00 PM) bird: I'm just shocked by how many people are so confident you're human because of your behavior.
(6:38:08 PM) bird: You're too good for people to be allowed to be that certain.
(6:38:14 PM) bird: But not too good for me!!!!
(6:38:19 PM) Thiannon: Isn't that the sort of thing I'd realize if he were my single wolf partner for the entire game?
(6:38:52 PM) bird: It's not that big of a deal really.
(6:38:55 PM) Thiannon: You're blaming me for changing my mind.
(6:39:03 PM) bird: It's a small part of the big picture.
(6:39:16 PM) Thiannon: I voted for seven humans in one day in I Spy!
(6:39:26 PM) bird: I know you've accused me of throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks, that's sort of the same idea. Let's just not worry about it.
(6:39:41 PM) bird: I think I've done a good job of emphasizing the parts of my argument matter most, and that isn't one of them!
(6:39:57 PM) bird: Oh and I am blaming you for changing your mind.
(6:40:12 PM) bird: You literally made a 180 spin in a converstaion with me, then made another as soon as it was over. It's incredibly odd.
(6:40:21 PM) Thiannon: You should be blaming yourself!
(6:40:31 PM) bird: why?
(6:40:59 PM) Thiannon: You're the one who was Arguing so persuasively last night.
(6:41:15 PM) bird: Ah. Well, being extremely persuasive is indeed my curse.
(6:41:25 PM) bird: I guess another big factor in this game
(6:41:31 PM) Thiannon: My post warning about you/FA was just that: a warning.
(6:41:34 PM) bird: Is the good ole' process of elimination.
(6:41:58 PM) bird: I'm quite confident in FA's and Greg's humanity, and of the remainder, you're the best fit with BDS.
(6:42:01 PM) Thiannon: But you hammered me before I could even get home to expound it further.
(6:42:09 PM) bird: It's a bad habit.
(6:42:11 PM) Thiannon: It was five AM!
(6:42:16 PM) bird: Maybe you can form some kind of group therapy with bluengie?
(6:42:38 PM) Thiannon: All right, well, I'm about to shoot you.
(6:42:51 PM) bird: You haven't even told me why you suspect me!
(6:42:59 PM) Thiannon: If you're human and both wolves are alive, we lose.
(6:43:22 PM) Thiannon: You're doing exactly what you did in Maestro's game!
(6:43:28 PM) bird: which one was that
(6:43:37 PM) Thiannon: And being phenomenally stubborn in not seeing it.
(6:44:09 PM) bird: oh the king's men game
(6:44:13 PM) Thiannon: Yes.
(6:44:13 PM) bird: what did i do that game?
(6:44:24 PM) bird: oh hey we won
(6:44:40 PM) Thiannon: You acted strangely aloof/angry, targeted me for silly reasons.
(6:45:07 PM) bird: I'm sure I can find a game where I did that as a human
(6:45:16 PM) Thiannon: Anyway, I'm out of time.
(6:45:29 PM) bird:
(6:45:44 PM) Thiannon: If you're a wolf, congrats. If you're human, sorry I screwed it up for us again.
(6:45:51 PM) bird: wait you already did it?
(6:45:55 PM) bird: oh man i'm going to be so pissed if you're human
(6:46:03 PM) bird: at least the loss won't be my fault anyway
(6:46:13 PM) bird: oh good you didn't do it
(6:46:22 PM) bird: WAIT
(6:46:25 PM) bird: Thiannon come back dont leave
(6:46:27 PM) bird: I had an idea
(6:46:32 PM) Thiannon: What?
(6:46:36 PM) bird: Let's both die!
(6:46:46 PM) bird: It'll be great! And romantic!
(6:46:56 PM) bird: We can take advantage of the fact that bullets do double damage to yourself when not fired
(6:47:02 PM) Thiannon: I... don't think we can.
(6:47:09 PM) bird: Well, it doesn't have to be the two of us honestly
(6:47:14 PM) bird: But we can kill two people as long as they're willing
(6:47:28 PM) bird: Why wouldn't we be able to do that?
(6:47:32 PM) Thiannon: Oh!
(6:47:35 PM) Thiannon: Hmm.
(6:48:24 PM) bird: Of course, it'll be extreeeeemely embarrassing if we're both human. Or whoever the suicidees are
(6:48:24 PM) Thiannon: I don't see how this doesn't expose me to wasted human bullets and get me lynched and you the wolf win.
(6:48:33 PM) Thiannon: Or whoever.
(6:48:50 PM) Thiannon: Two missed human buckets and we lose, right.
(6:48:54 PM) bird: Okay how's this
(6:49:06 PM) Thiannon: I have to go, Sauce!
(6:49:18 PM) bird: Will you be able to chek the thread again at least once in the next 6 hours?
(6:49:28 PM) Thiannon: Yes.
(6:49:32 PM) bird: Okay
(6:49:37 PM) bird: Don't shoot yet then!
(6:49:42 PM) Thiannon: Post this log if you're a human!
(6:49:46 PM) Thiannon: Okay.
(6:49:46 PM) bird: I'll try and think of a fair risk-free way to do this in the meantime
(6:49:47 PM) bird: lol
(6:49:47 PM) bird: sure
(6:49:58 PM) Thiannon: Later!

[close]

Most of it is just me reasserting the reasons I found him suspicious. But I also got him to tell me why he thought I was suspicious, which is that according to him, my behavior is very similar to All the King's Men where I was a wolf.

Probably the most important outcome of this log is the discovery that we can kill two people this phase.

We can take advantage of the fact that bullets not shot will do double damage to the owner. That's four damage at base. Then three people can do the rest of the damage, and we'll have two bullets to spare. This could be done by having the two to-be lynch victims (who will only agree since they know the other person will also die) picking a trustee. Then some neutral player (probably Greg) fires his two bullets in the thread, one for each lynchee. Then the two players' trustees fire their bullets both at the opposite lynchee. Then we let the phase tick over and when they take four more damage each, they both die.

I would be willing to die if I knew Fiver/BDS was dying as well. But the important thing is that any human should be willing to do this if they truly believe the opposite person is a wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

It shouldn't matter though, as confidence doesn't point to me being a wolf. And the reason I expect people to believe me is because I'm human! If you don't expect people to believe you, your argument probably sucks anyway.

True, but it's the way that you're acting, not necessarily the fact that you are acting that way (if that makes any sense; essentially, it's the way you do your actions/say things, not the fact that you do the actions/say things in the first place).

I won't disagree that my Thiannon post comes off as very desperate, but that's not because I'm a wolf throwing a Hail Mary or whatever. Desperate times call for desperate measures. If there's two wolves alive, that means every single human player needs to shoot the same wolf or else we lose. That means any argument made needs to convince all of the human players, and an argument like that needs to be strong... or from a different perspective, desperate. Regarding yourself and fank, I never made a single argument against either of you that could possibly be perceived as desperate to find somebody to lynch. For day phases 1 and 2, I was essentially indifferent to who we lynched.

The thing is, you're seeming as if you're just trying to lynch somebody, not particularly go after a wolf. I believe that even you've said that wolves may get a bit complacent towards the end of a game (whether they intend to or not) if they see an easy victory in sight (as in, disrupting human opinions enough to divide the bullets, or convince enough people to lynch a human).

Did you overlook this post where I stressed how essential it was that we all vote for one player? A division of opinions existed long before my "BDS/Thiannon are wolves" post.

Actions speak louder than words, and even what you've been saying about fank, thiannon, and I is conveying what I feel is what I brought up in my post.



Another point I bring up:
It seems as if all/most of your wolf pairings are based on how players interact (or "buddy up," if you will ), but if you would use that logic on yourself, you and FireArrow would also make a very compatible wolfing pair (especially the way FireArrow has been responding to you). Just look at his most recent post... his most recent POSTS!

[Bird]

Just kidding, there's no way the two-death plan can work.

oh well

[Bird]

I almost forgot about my ace-in-the-hole!

Waddle Bro, I'd like to request a phase extension. Thiannon, a player me and some others are strongly considering lynching, hasn't been able to spend more than 15 minutes at a computer this day phase. He isn't so busy that he should have been replaced, he just has hectic Mondays and Tuesdays since he's an adult and stuff. This is a lynch that could decide the game, and Thiannon represents 17% of the players. Due to this, I think that another 24 hours of time might be warranted.

[Thiannon]

I doubt the wolves are willing to go along with that, but it would suck if I got lynched just for being busy.

Most of my defence is in the chatlog, but one other thing that I did want to point out is that if you think I'm a wolf, you either think I missed the Night 1 wolfing intentionally, in which case you completely don't understand what I'm about (I've been campaigning against that nonsense for months and months), or you think I missed a wolfing for the first time in more than four years of playing TWG during a phase in which I was clearly active to boot. If BDS is my partner, this notion becomes even less plausible (I don't think he'd miss a wolfing for any reason either).

Re: my being compatible with Blueflower, I supported his bombing in the topic. I can't find the post now, but it's there, near the end of Day 1. I advocated lynching Maestro for much of the game, and still think he's a likely wolf. I'm clearly not partners with fank, FireArrow, or Bird, and I was more suspicious than almost anyone else of Greg, who is, to boot, the most human-looking player left.

BDS is legitimately the only player I'm compatible with, and if we're partners, not only did I refuse to take the easy way out (encouraging Bird to vote for fank), I painted a giant sign announcing that BDS and I are partners. Clearly I shouldn't have vacillated on Bird/FA, but humans do change their minds. The change I made was not the easy play for a wolf, yet a main principle of Bird's argument is that I'm the most talented player among six people who all look human, and thus the most apt dissembler as a wolf. This is typical Bird "logic" in which every human-seeming thing I do is my being a brilliant wolf, and every suspect thing I do is my making a major mistake. Consider this for a moment, please. Bird's behaviour has been so much wolfier than mine.

Unfortunately I'm already way over time for TWG for tonight and I don't have time to compose the case against him. I'll be back to vote Bird tomorrow unless he can make a compelling case for someone else.

[Thiannon]

Please, please, please consult Maestro's Kings Men game before you all follow Bird's lead in lynching me. He's done this exact. Same. Thing. Before.

[Bird]

Just kidding about the phase extension. It's like 5:00 AM where Waddle lives and he never posts at this time. We need to shoot our bullets now in case he says no, and even if he says yes, the bullets fired are permanent. Unless anyone has his phone number, we have to finish this tonight.

[The Missed Wolfing]
     Thiannon argues that he can't have missed the wolfing unintentionally because he never does, and that he can't have missed it intentionally since it goes against his TWG beliefs. I understand that he dislikes missed wolfings and night phase lynches, but I don't know if he would pass an advantageous opportunity just out of principle.

[BDS being the only compatible partner, yet he didn't take the easy way out of encouraging a fank lynch]
     Look at all these disparging comments. Classic Thiannon! The important thing to note here is the timing. If I had made that big "BDS/Thiannon are wolves" post at the beginning of the phase, then and only then would encouraging me to vote fank be the easy way out. But I only made that post after Thiannon already decided to suspect me/FA. His option of taking the easy way out was removed when that happened. And you misinterpret me when I say you're a good wolf. I just want to make sure all the other players know how talented you are so they don't assume you're human for some generic human-seeming posts.

"Please, please, please consult Maestro's Kings Men game before you all follow Bird's lead in lynching me. He's done this exact. Same. Thing. Before."
     I actually looked over All The King's Men again, but the only similarities I see are probably just because I'm the same person. It's not very surprising, since I was a wolf in that game, and I'm a human in this one.


It's a shame that Thiannon decided to appeal to all of you rather than me with his parting words, since I'm not a wolf, but whatever. I did find his desperation somewhat persuasive, and I'm going to read the topic one last time, with an open mind. We'll see what happens. But I'm going to shoot pretty soon after I finish.

Please join the chat if you can.

[Waddle Bro]

6:30 AM.

A 24 hour Phase Extension granted.

[Bird]

awwww yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Greg]

Why Thia/BDS is no longer viable.

Chatlog

20:47   bird      guys check out this killer evidence i found20:47   bird      http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=5956.msg232120#msg23212020:47   bird      If Thiannon is a wolf with BDS, BDS was about to die, yet Thiannon didn't change his vote. Even though he also suspected Fank!20:48   FireArrow       So Thiannon and BDS can't be wolves together?20:48   bird      That's a strong piece of evidence against it i think20:48   FireArrow       So... Thiannon's only possible partner is Greg /20:49   fank009           ...20:50   fank009           Maybe he wanted to role the dice???20:50   fank009           If i get you, because thia didnt switch20:50   fank009           Thats why that partnership is impossible20:51   bird      Yeah something liek that20:51   bird      More importantly20:51   bird      Thiannon never brought it up when defending himself20:51   Greg    Man, now I'm really glad we have an extra day.20:52   FireArrow       ehh20:54   fank009           ...20:54   Greg    Man, you're right. Something like that would be impossible to forget if Thiannon was partnered with BDS

[close]

[Greg]

God dammit.

fixed chatlog

20:47   bird   guys check out this killer evidence i found
20:47   bird   http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=5956.msg232120#msg232120
20:47   bird   If Thiannon is a wolf with BDS, BDS was about to die, yet Thiannon didn't change his vote. Even though he also suspected Fank!
20:48   FireArrow   So Thiannon and BDS can't be wolves together?
20:48   bird   That's a strong piece of evidence against it i think
20:48   FireArrow   So... Thiannon's only possible partner is Greg /
20:49   fank009   ...
20:50   fank009   Maybe he wanted to role the dice???
20:50   fank009   If i get you, because thia didnt switch
20:50   fank009   Thats why that partnership is impossible
20:51   bird   Yeah something liek that
20:51   bird   More importantly
20:51   bird   Thiannon never brought it up when defending himself
20:51   Greg   Man, now I'm really glad we have an extra day.
20:52   FireArrow   ehh
20:54   fank009   ...
20:54   Greg   Man, you're right. Something like that would be impossible to forget if Thiannon was partnered with BDS

[close]

[Bird]

Changing my pretend vote to BlackDragonSlayer for now, under the idea of he and fank009 being the wolves.

This explains would explain two weird things between the two of them:

• The fact that fank009 randomly shared with me the PMs he exchanged with BDS. He apparently hadn't sent PMs to any other players the whole game, and his offer to show me these PMs came out of the blue.
• It also explains why fank was arguing Thiannon/Greg rather than the infinitely more compatible Thiannon/BDS.