TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[Bird]

Before I have to leave, let me say something about this:
In essence, you're relying your whole analyzation of FireArrow on what was MOST LIKELY a little early-game jest (given that Nocturne didn't need to be an experienced player to make the joke that "suicide is the first mechanic")? Also, in the chat, didn't you say something to the effect that Verm's first list wasn't very good... yet you're using it to support your own conclusion(s)...

Exact quote from the log

06:07:29: <BlackDragonSlayer> Considering verm's plan with the PMs, and his suspicion *lists*, I disagree with that opinion, Bird.
06:07:49: <Firearrow> his suspicion lists suck lol
06:07:50: <bird> his first list was basically worthless

...later, FireArrow even said:
06:09:56: <Firearrow> Verm is putting me so low on his suspicion lists just because of one post :/
06:09:57: <fank009> I would say its normal for verm as of late
06:10:06: <Firearrow> even though he said I looked wolfish in all my others
06:10:06: <fank009> ...
06:10:16: <Firearrow> I dunno, I find that odd lol
06:10:20: <fank009> and being low in a list is bad???
06:10:34: <Firearrow> Well, no, but he doesn't give a good reason for it

[close]

His list was worthless because it wasn't ordered. I referenced it since, even though the way he made it was frustrating, I figure verm backing me up on some point has to have some value. And I feel like you're sort of ignoring the FireArrow post altogether, saying it doesn't have value since it's just an early-game post. I'm sure there's some latin word for the fallacy you're using.

The fact of the matter is that I think Nocturne was serious when he asked if the mechanic was suicide. And I think FireArrow was serious when he suggested that they might have caught the first wolf. This makes them both human in my eyes. I said the same thing of askalice23 when he proposed that the quality had gone down since he last played, since he also figured Nocturne was being serious. These early-game posts are far more useful than late-game ones, since as I told Thiannon in the chatlog he posted, that's where all the human tells are.

18:52   Thiannon   I think you're on to something with your analysis of the super-early game.
18:53   bird   that's where all the human tells live!
18:53   Thiannon   It seems to be a good way to pseudo-confirm mid-tier humans fast.
18:53   Thiannon   Exactly!

And while I'm at it, let's tackle this stupid FireArrow is a wolf theory even further. Why did Liggy die if FireArrow suspected him? I thought it was incredibly obvious that he was human once I noticed this post. In fact, FireArrow seemed to be the only player who thought that Liggy was a wolf. Everyone else was sure he was human. If FireArrow was a wolf, either his partner would have clued him in on the fact that Liggy was basically confirmed, or (if his partner was dead) he wouldn't have killed Liggy. Just look at his response to the wolfing.

Anyway... I'm having trouble deciding between fank and BDS. It will most likely be one of them though.

[FireArrow]

Anyway... I'm having trouble deciding between fank and BDS. It will most likely be one of them though.

Add thia to that list and that's pretty much what I'm thinking. I actually was unsure about fank until you linked to that giant post he made as a wolf, nullifying the reason I thought he was human.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

^You still didn't answer his question BDS, only argued against his.

Before I have to leave, let me say something about this:

Before I have to leave

Before I have to leave

Also, what was the question?

I was initially hard on Bird/FA, but now I don't know what to think. Honestly, everyone's looking pretty human at this point.

New-mechanic-that-was-really-a-mechanic-from-the-very-beginning:
We're all humans!!!

And I feel like you're sort of ignoring the FireArrow post altogether, saying it doesn't have value since it's just an early-game post. I'm sure there's some latin word for the fallacy you're using.

The reasoning for that being that you are the one who is completely ignoring the context it and Nocturne's post were in.

And while I'm at it, let's tackle this stupid FireArrow is a wolf theory even further. Why did Liggy die if FireArrow suspected him?

The thing is, if I recall correctly, nobody else really suspected Liggy (tell me if I'm wrong; you excluded, off course). Keeping Greg alive (despite what I said in a PM in response to fank last night phase) would likely get him to support you against fank/me (or, if you were lucky, get fank/me to support you against Greg), since, if Liggy were alive, there's a lot less chance either of those would've happened.

It seems as if your main point against me and fank is that we're "buddying up," which I'm only doing because I've felt that fank has been really human throughout much of the game; in essence, I'm getting the exact opposite feeling about him than I did in 2fool4skool.

This doesn't necessarily rule him out though; the missed wolfing could have been accidental, or his partner might have bossed him into it, without him really understanding why.

One final thing! ^_^
May I point out that you/Verm are the only two players who I'd feel would be able to "boss me" into not wolfing (unless my partner is somebody else and I made the decision, but as I said earlier...), and since I advocated Verm's death, and you and I are at odds (you considering wanting to lynch either fank or me, and I wanting to lynch either you or FireArrow), plus the fact that you say you are not a wolf, that leaves a gap in your theory (not to mention the unlikelihood that the missed wolfing was accidental, since you'd be making a rather large assumption).

[Thiannon]

fank, I didn't mean to lay a trap for you. My "who we wolf tonight?" line was a response to Bird; you just happened to come online a second before I said it, and I thought that was funny, so I played it up (with the "COME ON", etc.).

FA, what are your reasons for suspecting me, again?

[Bird]

Jesus.

I'll respond to you once you respond to me, BDS.

The fact of the matter is that I think Nocturne was serious when he asked if the mechanic was suicide. And I think FireArrow was serious when he suggested that they might have caught the first wolf. This makes them both human in my eyes. I said the same thing of askalice23 when he proposed that the quality had gone down since he last played, since he also figured Nocturne was being serious. These early-game posts are far more useful than late-game ones, since as I told Thiannon in the chatlog he posted, that's where all the human tells are.

It doesn't matter whether Nocturne was serious or not. What matters is whether FireArrow was serious with his post. And I think it's pretty obvious that he was, and also doubt he would make that post as a wolf. If you think otherwise, don't ignore this point next time.

[Greg]

@BDS: Bird and Verm were against no wolfing! They wouldn't have tried to convince you to do it.

@Bird: You mention in your chat with Thiannon that you think FA's suspicion of Liggy makes him look more human. I'm pretty sure that's fallacious logic: if FA was a wolf, he knows exactly who the wolves are, so who he's ostensibly "suspicious" of shouldn't make any difference. For all we know it might have been a gambit on his part to look more human, if he was a wolf. Not saying FA's necessarily a wolf, but it's worth pointing out!

[FireArrow]

fank, I didn't mean to lay a trap for you. My "who we wolf tonight?" line was a response to Bird; you just happened to come online a second before I said it, and I thought that was funny, so I played it up (with the "COME ON", etc.).

FA, what are your reasons for suspecting me, again?

Because the humans always seem to make the same mistake every game! They go out on the more active posters who looks wolfish and ignore the people hiding in the shadows (AKA, you.) Bird did point out that not everyone plays that way as a wolf, but I think the only people that would play like that as a wolf (that are still alive) are fank and bird (which is why I'm also suspicious of fank.)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Jesus.

I'll respond to you once you respond to me, BDS.

It doesn't matter whether Nocturne was serious or not. What matters is whether FireArrow was serious with his post. And I think it's pretty obvious that he was, and also doubt he would make that post as a wolf. If you think otherwise, don't ignore this point next time.

Aside from what I already said, and what Greg said (which would determine whether he were genuine or just responding to what Nocturne said to seem active/human), may I say that fank also said something very similar just after FireArrow.

[Bird]

Is there a time tomorrow we can all meet in the chatroom to sort this out? We need to pick somebody to vote for by tomorrow night (CST/EST).

[Bird]

@Bird: You mention in your chat with Thiannon that you think FA's suspicion of Liggy makes him look more human. I'm pretty sure that's fallacious logic: if FA was a wolf, he knows exactly who the wolves are, so who he's ostensibly "suspicious" of shouldn't make any difference. For all we know it might have been a gambit on his part to look more human, if he was a wolf. Not saying FA's necessarily a wolf, but it's worth pointing out!

I don't think it matters whether his Liggy suspicion was right or wrong. What mattered is that it completely went against the grain of the game. He was the only person calling Liggy a wolf, and most other players were saying that Liggy was human. I don't know if a wolf would do that, and if they did, I don't think they would respond to his death in that way.
Either way, it's not necessarily an important point in the FA defense.

[fank009]

Anyway... I'm having trouble deciding between fank and BDS. It will most likely be one of them though.

... yeah, lets lynch a human for a more than likely loss, "yay"

And im going to be here, to turn this right around on its head, shake it up and down, and keep turning and turning until the truth spews out.
To do that, this guy needs his head on his shoulders

There's a whole lot of things not making sense...

18:44   Thiannon   It's the "I'd have to be a pretty stupid wolf to do that" logic.
18:45   Thiannon   I'm pretty sure I've used it too.
18:45   bird   it's like an integral part of the game
18:45   bird   look at greg
18:45   bird   he'd have to "be a pretty stupid wolf" to argue that he shoudl hold onto the bomb

Here's one thing though...
EVERYONE, Has used that line that line (or has something worthy of that line) at some stage of the game, Is it really a necessity for being human??? (HELLO!!!???!!!, LOOK AT THE LEANS!)

19 Nov 2013 01:10:22 GMT <fank009> I'll say it again, why would FA/bird keep you over liggy???
19 Nov 2013 01:10:32 GMT <Greg> I don't think they want to change that. Liggy probably wasn't going to be lynched anyway, unless everyone in the game suddenly went full retard.

Why does someone have to be lynchable to take to the final 6???

02:45:29: <bird> Considering how human everyone seems, I'd be very surprised if there were two wolves left. Plus it's not easy coming up with viable two-wolf combinations.

considerable how human all the dead people are... (IMO), and are you getting lazy there bird?

WTF HOW CAN LIGGY NOT BE A WOLF?! I guess it was a good target though, becuase we pretty much learn nothing from it. ://

I'm still alive because fank wants my blood. And I can't stress how important it is for you guys to follow Bird's plan.

Just in case you are wondering one more wolfy tell on the pile...

@Bird: You mention in your chat with Thiannon that you think FA's suspicion of Liggy makes him look more human. I'm pretty sure that's fallacious logic: if FA was a wolf, he knows exactly who the wolves are, so who he's ostensibly "suspicious" of shouldn't make any difference. For all we know it might have been a gambit on his part to look more human, if he was a wolf. Not saying FA's necessarily a wolf, but it's worth pointing out!

Speaking about gambits...
Remember about the guy who said he would hold onto the bomb???

-also additional point
Glad to know you are trying to consider everyone's humanities...

02:39:02: <bird> I'm not really worrying about it since I'm not sure there are still two wolves left.

Ok, Assuming one wolf amongs the dead, lets have a look at the dead...

Blueflower
Maestro
Verm
Askalice

considering these options??? who would be possible partners?
(from my understanding... Blueflower is the only possible wolf, and me, FA AND greg are out of the picture on that one)


Now that I've (finally) gotten the (stupid) confusing thoughts out of my head, Next post I'll put my Ideas and leans out.

[fank009]

Mobile post means no quotes...

In my biased opinion, we have 3 possible partners (to one dead blueflower)
Thia
BDS
Bird....
A quick thought, and you eliminate BDS and bird (whos defense of FA doesnt make sense of he was partners with blue flower.) and you are left with thia as a partner,(and what feels like a guaranteed wolf)

And that there, is my thought process, as to who is the best lynch is phase

[Thiannon]

All right, I have a lot to say but no time to say it. But I am thinking now that it makes more sense to lynch one of FA/Bird and then re-evaluate next day as to whether we kill the other one or one of BDS/fank. If it's fank or BDS, his partner is probably already dead (i.e. Maestro).

This probably won't placate the Thiannon/BDS shippers, but whatever.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

A quick thought, and you eliminate BDS and bird (whos defense of FA doesnt make sense of he was partners with blue flower.) and you are left with thia as a partner,(and what feels like a guaranteed wolf)

And that there, is my thought process, as to who is the best lynch is phase

But I am thinking now that it makes more sense to lynch one of FA/Bird and then re-evaluate next day as to whether we kill the other one or one of BDS/fank.

This probably won't placate the Thiannon/BDS shippers, but whatever.

XD

Can't... stop... laughing...

[Bird]

(5:43:47 PM) bird: What was that "wolf-tell" you mentioned in an earlier post that you wanted to test out this game?
(5:44:03 PM) Thiannon: Actually, you kind of fell into it a couple posts ago!
(5:44:12 PM) bird: sounds like shitty wolf tell then
(5:44:43 PM) Thiannon: I noticed Sage did this on the last LLF game, and I think both you and Nighthawk have done it in the past.
(5:44:55 PM) Thiannon: It's the "I'd have to be a pretty stupid wolf to do that" logic.
(5:46:04 PM) bird: Is self-arguing part of this tell?
(5:46:08 PM) Thiannon: Yes.
(5:46:14 PM) Thiannon: The self-arguing is the tell.

Speaking of his suspicion of me:You're jumping to the conclusion that a slight chance would make me not want to wolf somebody (slight meaning probably not worth it ), and then MENTION it after there is no wolfing. You surely must realize how much the logic doesn't add up there.

Well?

Why is it that Thiannon noticed me doing this, but now BDS? This caused me to examine the pairint in detail, and I found that it's an extremely plausible team of wolves.

BDS literally did exactly what Thiannon described here, yet it was never brought up! And Thiannon clearly read it as well, since in his next post he suggested that BDS would be arguing outside of his best interests. BDS has also been backing up Fiver quite a bit this game, and Fiver defended (or at least questioned the validity of the lynch) BDS on Day 1. Thiannon is also acutely aware of the benefits of playing number games, especially since he knows wolves can win on a night phase. I'm sure he could sell this idea to BDS.

Early on, Thiannon also argued that he thought that BDS was a person who would start looking really human really fast. Well, he didn't. Yet Thiannon still isn't suspicious of him. He recognizes that BDS has done nothing that makes him seem human, yet doesn't find him suspicious at all.

Pretty odd. Here's another BDS quote:

After skimming over the game again, Greg, askalice (unless he and verm are the wolves and planned the PM shenanigans together, which I highly doubt at this point), and fank seem the most human to me so far, and maybe Thiannon (speaking of him, I'd like to see what he has to say about current events).

This is such a statement that a wolf would make about his partner. Just a throwaway to show that they're not totally in the clear, but still not putting them at risk of being wolfed.

Thiannon grudgingly moved BDS up to number 2 on his most recent list. Which seems like a point against this theory, but then you realize the person above him is a guy whose posts Thiannon guiltily admitted to "skimming."

BDS also just laughed way too hard at Thiannon's joke about shippers. It's not that funny. He also quoted Thiannon in the thread and made a joke himself. This is the weakest part of the theory, but it makes me wonder if they're being jokey in PMs and that's carrying over to the thread.

Thiannon's final post kind of seals the deal on this theory. He says that we should focus on wolf pairs now (FA/Me) and then go for single players. It's a nice idea, but if we followed him and he and BDS were wolves, we would lose. He admitted that I seemed human. And he recognizes the validity of my "analyze early posts" strategy, so I can't see why he still thinks FireArrow is a wolf.

All in all, there's a ton of meat on this theory. Everything fits.

I'll set my current vote on Thiannon. In green so I don't fire any of my better-colored bullets.