TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[BlackDragonSlayer]

You're just stating the reasons I already responded to. The way that first suspicion list was composed was basically me just figuring out which players were human, and then arbitrarily putting the other 6 above them. Some thought went into them, but it wasn't super deep analysis or anything. My reasoning for having Liggy high was that he was disposable; I didn't care about the item or the incredibly slim chance that he might be replaced. No offense, Liggy.

I thought you hadn't responded to them, which is why I stated them again; but thank you for responding to them.

in the meantime, I would like everyone to state why they feel they are still alive, and who might have been responsible for liggys wolfing.

I'm still alive likely because of the possibility I might be a wolf in the eyes of the "public" (whether or not Bird is a wolf). Literally anybody could have wolfed Liggy...

[Bird]

I'm still alive because people have been suspicious of me for a while. The only reason verm is dead is because of those dumb darts.

Also, nobody shoot your bullets until towards the end of the phase. Shooting someone early to twist the humans' arms and force us to kill that player seems like a nice idea, but it might just cause our team to lose. So... don't.

Waddle, do the bullets each do one damage?

[Waddle Bro]

Waddle, do the bullets each do one damage?

Yes.

[Bird]

Why are they different colors then?

[Waddle Bro]

Helps keeping track.

[Bird]

Alright everyone. We need to come to a certain understanding right now. This is extremely important.

If there are two wolves left, this could potentially be the final day phase. Mislynching will make it 2 wolves and 3 humans, and the wolves will win once they make their last kill. Additionally, this means that if there are two wolves left, the humans only have 8 bullets. If even one human player uses his bullets in a different way than the other human players, the wolves can win by simply not voting.

Here is the plan I am proposing to make sure this phase doesn't go horribly wrong.

- Every player agrees to use his bullets on the player the majority wants to lynch. If we don't all commit to this right now, we will lose. Even if you disagree with the person that the majority chooses, you must go along with it.
- Every player votes normally until a certain arbitrary deadline passed. At that point, we all shoot our bullets at the person with the most votes at the time of the deadline.

It is vital that I get everyone to agree to this plan. Please respond to this post as soon as you can.

Waddle, can I request that you change the bullets to blue and red? That way we can bold names of people we want dead without accidentally shooting our black bullets at them.

[Greg]

Posting to agree. More later when I get on an actual computer.

[Thiannon]

Bird covered pretty much everything I wanted to say mechanic-wise. Suspicion list coming in a few minutes. I'm also in the chatroom now, and will be for the next half hour.

[Bird]

As for who we shoot all our bullets at, I reread the game and took some notes on the players.

FireArrow - I'm extremely certain FireArrow is human based on this post. A player is much more likely to misinterpret that post as somebody giving themselves up if they're a human. If FireArrow were a wolf, he probably wouldn't have made the connection that that's possibly a wolf accidentally revealing themselves. And you don't have to take it from me either, apparently vermilionvermin arrived at the same conclusion, and we can't both be wolves.
Greg - He's been acting pretty normal, but the only strong human thing in his favor was him arguing that he and verm should hold onto the bombs. Without that, he's suspicious as the rest of them, and it's not impossible for him to have made a gambit like that as a wolf. I think it's relatively unlikely though.
Thiannon - Thiannon could easily be a wolf, but he has done some very human things this game. Most importantly, I think this post is one that deserves more attention. Unfortunately (and this has frustrated me a lot), I can't seem to communicate why it makes him human without using a really stupid and obtuse metaphor.

Spoiler

Two people come to a fork in a road. Person A knows they need to go left, but doesn't want that information to be revealed. Person B doesn't know which way to go, and has to figure it out based on clues. On the right, the incorrect fork, the shadows of the trees make it look like there are footprints leading in that direction, making right seem like the correct path. Who is more likely to argue that right is the correct way to go?

Obviously person B. Not only is there no point for person A to point out the footprints, but he would be less likely to do so. In knowing that left is the correct direction, he would be skeptical of those footprints and probably realize that they were just shadows. Person B on the other hand, is desperate for any clue and will eagerly search both paths for them... even if the clues are misleading or plain old wrong!

If Thiannon is a wolf, he's person A. If Thiannon is a human, he's person B. He noticed a "false trail" laid by the host, which seemed to indicate that the missed wolfing was a mistake. A human doesn't know whether the missed wolfing was intentional or not, and so he is more likely to notice clues in both directions. But if he was a wolf, he would know that the missed wolfing was intentional, and would therefore be less likely to notice evidence that argues the opposite.

Confirmation bias is one of the strongest forces in the world, yet for Thiannon to be a wolf he would have to completely ignore it's effects somehow. In other words, he'd have to be a really talented wolf to have done what he did.

[close]

He also argued for Greg's and Nakah's humanity, which I agreed with. Throughout the game, he has been very reasonable with plans and stuff, but I don't really know who he's suspicious of. Additionally he said that he had a new idea about wolf-tells, but hasn't mentioned it since. I think he's probably human.
Fank - Fank's probably been more active this game than any other game I've seen him in, but he still makes pretty big posts as a wolf. I don't really know what else to say. This always happens when I reread games, I just have trouble taking notes on fank since his posts are often very scattered.
BlackDragonSlayer - He hasn't done anything that struck me as particularly human. One thing he does have going for him is that I'm pretty sure he misunderstood the reasoning for missing the wolfing on night 1. I know that I originally argued that this made him more likely to be a wolf, but I wasn't really reading what he said. He said that the benefit was that you'd be slightly (emphasis on slightly) less likely to get lynched bombed if you didn't wolf somebody. But that's such a slight chance, and it's true even in games without bombings. The real reason not to wolf somebody is to withhold information and to make it so that you can win on a night phase. You have to play the numbers. This doesn't necessarily rule him out though; the missed wolfing could have been accidental, or his partner might have bossed him into it, without him really understanding why.

Going to the chatroom now. I'm actually thinking there might just be one wolf left at this point, which would be great news.

[FireArrow]

WTF HOW CAN LIGGY NOT BE A WOLF?! I guess it was a good target though, becuase we pretty much learn nothing from it. ://

I'm still alive because fank wants my blood. And I can't stress how important it is for you guys to follow Bird's plan.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

FireArrow - I'm extremely certain FireArrow is human based on this post. A player is much more likely to misinterpret that post as somebody giving themselves up if they're a human. If FireArrow were a wolf, he probably wouldn't have made the connection that that's possibly a wolf accidentally revealing themselves. And you don't have to take it from me either, apparently vermilionvermin arrived at the same conclusion, and we can't both be wolves.

Before I have to leave, let me say something about this:
In essence, you're relying your whole analyzation of FireArrow on what was MOST LIKELY a little early-game jest (given that Nocturne didn't need to be an experienced player to make the joke that "suicide is the first mechanic")? Also, in the chat, didn't you say something to the effect that Verm's first list wasn't very good... yet you're using it to support your own conclusion(s)...

Exact quote from the log

06:07:29: <BlackDragonSlayer> Considering verm's plan with the PMs, and his suspicion *lists*, I disagree with that opinion, Bird.
06:07:49: <Firearrow> his suspicion lists suck lol
06:07:50: <bird> his first list was basically worthless

...later, FireArrow even said:
06:09:56: <Firearrow> Verm is putting me so low on his suspicion lists just because of one post :/
06:09:57: <fank009> I would say its normal for verm as of late
06:10:06: <Firearrow> even though he said I looked wolfish in all my others
06:10:06: <fank009> ...
06:10:16: <Firearrow> I dunno, I find that odd lol
06:10:20: <fank009> and being low in a list is bad???
06:10:34: <Firearrow> Well, no, but he doesn't give a good reason for it

[close]

[FireArrow]

^You still didn't answer his question BDS, only argued against his.

[Thiannon]

So, the wolf tell I was talking about earlier was people arguing that they "wouldn't do something so stupid as a wolf". It's fallacious logic, since even the best wolves screw up all the time (except Dark Koopa), and from observing some recent games (mostly on LLF), I've seen a lot of wolves do this. Humans, at least in my experience (might be confirmation bias), don't seem to do it as much.

Bird's done this once already this game, and fank's post here has a whiff of that kind of logic. Bird and I have been chatting and Greg, notably, hasn't used this at all. Also, the more I think about it (and the more generally conservative his playstyle seems to me to be), the less I think he's a wolf.

I was initially hard on Bird/FA, but now I don't know what to think. Honestly, everyone's looking pretty human at this point.

1. fank - Unreadable, essentially plays the same way as a human or a wolf. Everyone else looks more human than he does, though. I thought his determination not to die earlier in the game argued for his humanity, and I still think it does, but his suicide in that earlier wolf game seems like it might have been an anomaly for him (a really poor read/weird case of mafia nobility or something).
2. BDS - Still seems pretty human to me, but I can't really say why, and everyone else actually has tangible evidence pointing to his humanity.
3. Bird - Bird wolf tells: "I'm not that dumb as a wolf!"; targeting me in lynches; seeming vaguely upset about everything. He was my top suspicion before chatting with him today, but his last few posts have looked really human. Of course, he'd probably throw up the giant stop sign as a wolf too--and the last time he was a wolf and I was a human on NSM, he did a nice job heading off my suspicions just as they were coming to a head. I dunno. A Bird/FA pairing makes me really uncomfortable.
4. FA - If Bird's a wolf, he's probably his partner. (I'm not buying the idea that Bird wouldn't defend his partner so much at this point; if they're wolves together, they only need to survive one lynch.) But Bird's point about that early post about Nocturne is really persuasive. Super-early-game, I think wolves are often very apprehensive. People expect to be human, get a wolf role, and don't know what to do with themselves (or hesitate because they want to consult with their partners). Ergo, analyzing really early-game posts is a good way to spot mid-tier human players.
5. Greg - I stated most of my points about him as a human above. I still think offering to fall on the bomb is a great wolf strategy, and that some players (verm, maybe Bird) would have done it. But the more I see of Greg, the less I think he's that guy.

NINJA'D BY BLACK DRAGON SECONDARY SCHOOL:

Dammit, BDS, now you're making me third-guess myself. More later if I have time.

Also, chatlog with Bird:

Spoiler

18:37      *** bird joined #TWGNSM
18:37   bird   thiannon!!!!!
18:37   Thiannon   Hi Firandel!
18:37   bird   are you there
18:37   bird   I only have like 15 minutes
18:37   bird   Also I made a big post
18:37   Thiannon   Another one?
18:38   Thiannon   I saw the stuff re: voting.
18:38   Thiannon   Have to go back and reread the stuff before that, though.
18:38   bird   I posted a suspicion list
18:38   Thiannon   Ooh, so you did!
18:39   bird   I didn't intentionally order it, but it's basically least to most suspicious
18:39   Thiannon   Unordered suspicion lists are the new thing, aren't they?
18:39   bird   theyre the worst
18:39   bird   at least put it in tiers
18:39      *** Maestro joined #TWGNSM
18:40   bird   They've really become a staple of the game though. I'm pretty sure they started from axem's bomb game, too.
18:40   bird   UGH also the spacing of my post got all fucked up
18:40   bird   should i delete and repost it
18:40   bird   i'm twc so im above the rules
18:40   Thiannon   wolf
18:41   Thiannon   I guess you might as well. No Phantoms anymore!
18:41   Thiannon   It looks fine to me, though.
18:41   Thiannon   I mean, fank is playing this game.
18:41   bird   Well, the spoilered stuff is what I'm referring to
18:41   bird   (hah)
18:41   bird   okay yeah this is infuriating
18:41   bird   IM DOIN IT
18:43   bird   okay it's fixed
18:43   bird   Anyway Thiannon, I'm glad youre here!
18:43   bird   I'd say don't bother reading that post since we're both short on time
18:43   bird   What was that "wolf-tell" you mentioned in an earlier post that you wanted to test out this game?
18:43   Thiannon   I skimmed most of it.
18:44   Thiannon   Actually, you kind of fell into it a couple posts ago!
18:44   bird   sounds like shitty wolf tell then
18:44   Thiannon   But your last few posts make you look a lot more human.
18:44   bird   are you not going to tell me what it is?
18:44   Thiannon   I noticed Sage did this on the last LLF game, and I think both you and Nighthawk have done it in the past.
18:44   Thiannon   It's the "I'd have to be a pretty stupid wolf to do that" logic.
18:45   Thiannon   I'm pretty sure I've used it too.
18:45   bird   it's like an integral part of the game
18:45   bird   look at greg
18:45   bird   he'd have to "be a pretty stupid wolf" to argue that he shoudl hold onto the bomb
18:45   Thiannon   I dunno, maybe I've only been remembering past instances when wolves have done it.
18:45   Thiannon   Did he actually argue that in the thread, though?
18:45   bird   Well everyone else pretty much argued it for him
18:45   Thiannon   I don't think he did.
18:46   bird   Is self-arguing part of this tell?
18:46   Thiannon   Point.
18:46   Thiannon   Yes.
18:46   Thiannon   The self-arguing is the tell.
18:46   bird   Well I feel like I'm going to look stupid at the end of this game no matter my role, so make of that what you will.
18:46   Thiannon   I think humans are more inclined to just say "whoops, I messed up", or explain why they did what they did.
18:47   Thiannon   Not if you win! (Probably.)
18:47   bird   Well I think we will probably just win through dumb luck.
18:47   Thiannon   What dead player do you think was a wolf?
18:47   bird   I think there's a decent chance we got a wolf already
18:47   bird   blueflower999/verm/Maestro all have potential
18:47   bird   (askalice23 is extremely doubtful)
18:48   bird   If we do lose, I blame the ballot box phase though
18:48   bird   Ballot box games are.... man, I just can't explain how awful I think they are.
18:48   bird   so awful.
18:48   bird   It takes away everything you normally use to find out wolves and their partners
18:48   bird   Requires more consensus, allows the wolves to take advantage of lynches more easily
18:48   bird   Etc.
18:48   bird   Anyway
18:48   bird   top suspicion, gogogogo
18:49   bird   (oh also i just remembered my meeting is at 6:30 so I have a bit more time)
18:49   Thiannon   fank didn't even know what ballot boxes were!
18:49   Thiannon   Well, you and FireArrow were my one-two, but now I'm doubting both of you.
18:50   Thiannon   Greg, I guess?
18:50   bird   Why were you suspicious of FireArrow?
18:50   bird   Just because we make good partners?
18:50   Thiannon   Well, he bombed verm, who I think is human.
18:50   Thiannon   Or, at least, I wouldn't have killed him D2.
18:51   bird   Shrug.
18:51   Thiannon   Also he was weirdly convinced Blueflower was a wolf.
18:51   bird   Bombings are always high pressure
18:51   Thiannon   Which would make sense if it was him/Blueflower.
18:51   Thiannon   I was banging the Toby drum pretty hard in GoW.
18:51   Thiannon   Of course it backfired on me.
18:51   bird   Did you read the section on him from my last post?
18:52   bird   Both verm and I independently determined FA was human based off his response to NocturneofShadow's "so the mechanic is suicide?" post.
18:52   Thiannon   Yeah, I totally forgot about that post.
18:52   Thiannon   I think you're on to something with your analysis of the super-early game.
18:53   bird   that's where all the human tells live!
18:53   Thiannon   It seems to be a good way to pseudo-confirm mid-tier humans fast.
18:53   Thiannon   Exactly!
18:53   bird   Well, until the wolves catch on and start playing dumb.
18:53   Thiannon   I don't think they have, though.
18:53   Thiannon   Well, maybe on NSM.
18:53   bird   Anyway, one of the reasons I'm feeling like there's probably only one wolf left
18:53   bird   Is the difficulty in finding partners out of the available options.
18:54   Thiannon   I'm reasonably comfortable with wolf Maestro.
18:54   bird   First of all, most people seem human.
18:54   bird   Like very human.
18:54   Thiannon   He was characteristically inactive, and his D1 plan made so much sense for a wolf.
18:54   Thiannon   Agreed.
18:54   bird   BDS has his numbers game misinterpretation, you have that one post I pointed out, Greg has the bomb gambit
18:54   bird   Which leaves Fank, but Fank isn't a good partner with like... anyone, really.
18:54   bird   Except maybe blueflower
18:54   bird   wait
18:54   bird   no
18:54   bird   yeah I don't even know.
18:55   Thiannon   He voted Blueflower, didn't he?
18:55   bird   yeah, thats why i eliminated that
18:55   bird   He was basically bragging about all the people he wasn't compatible with!
18:55   bird   You know
18:55   bird   BDS and you have both defended each other to some degree
18:55   bird   It's not an awful combination
18:56   bird   Oh another reason FA can't be a wolf
18:56   Thiannon   Yeah, he's probably my best pairing.
18:56   bird   You said you thought it was weird how he was so sure blueflower was a wolf
18:57   bird   BUt I thought his explanation for thinking so fit really well with his playstyle
18:57   bird   (that is, inactive people are wolves apparently)
18:57   Thiannon   http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=5956.msg232512#msg232512
18:57   Thiannon   BDS's suspicion list there would basically have been mine too.
18:58   Thiannon   And I'm conveniently placed right in the middle of it!
18:58   bird   Do you think BDS is human?
18:58   Thiannon   I was initially suspicious of people who thought he was a wolf because he didn't come across that way to me early.
18:59   Thiannon   And he seemed like a cop-out D1 lynch.
18:59   bird   well it was day 1
18:59   bird   (blueflower999 being so much less of a cop-out)
18:59   Thiannon   Haha, yeah, I know.
18:59   Thiannon   But you know how I feel about lynching inactives N1!
19:00   bird   I don't think it's such a bad idea anymore.
19:00   Thiannon   Ugh, I had a brainwave when I was essay-writing earlier and now it's slipped my mind.
19:00   Thiannon   Yeah, I agree.
19:00   Thiannon   Particularly on NSM.
19:00   bird   What do you think of Fank?
19:01   Thiannon   I'm not going to lie--I basically just skim his posts.
19:01   Thiannon   Both times he's been a wolf I thought he was human, though.
19:01   Thiannon   fank/Maestro makes sense, too.
19:01   bird   Well.
19:02      *** Liggy joined #TWGNSM
19:02      +++ ChanServ has given owner to Liggy
19:02      +++ ChanServ has given op to Liggy
19:02   bird   I mean, you said that that BDS list was your list basically, but he put fank at the bottom!
19:02   bird   I just don't get how people can feel strongly about fank in any direction
19:02   bird   He just says stuff and shoves it all into a single post, then peppers it with mafia jargon.
19:02   bird   And it's like the same no matter what his role is
19:03   Thiannon   http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=5956.msg232428#msg232428
19:03   Thiannon   fank would be the exception, yeah.
19:03   Thiannon   Hahahahaha.
19:04   Thiannon   That post strikes me as weird.
19:04   bird   Well it's a fank post, so...
19:05   Thiannon   Ugh.
19:05   Thiannon   I want to lynch him just because the thought of losing to him as a wolf is so annoying.
19:05      *** Maestro quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)
19:06   Thiannon   Do you think it's weird Greg hasn't been wolfed?
19:07   bird   Not necessarily.
19:07   bird   I'd definitely take Nakah and Liggy over him
19:07   bird   He would be my next choice though.
19:08   bird   I mean right? Nakah and Liggy are way more obvious choices.
19:08   Liggy   hi
19:08   bird   Liggy was basically confirmed as soon as he didn't pass the blue bomb, honestly, a point which a lot of people overlooked
19:08   bird   Which is another mark in FireArrow's favor. Why would he wolf somebody who he was convinced was a wolf? Greg was a lot more of an obvious human from his point of view.
19:09   Thiannon   Good point, actually.
19:09   Thiannon   Working on my suspicion list now, BTW.
19:09   bird   w00t
19:12   Thiannon   I can't shake the feeling that BDS is human, but you're right.
19:12   Thiannon   There's legitimately nothing that suggests he is.
19:12   Liggy   @Fiver:
19:13   Thiannon   Or nothing I have time to go hunting for, anyway.
19:13   Liggy   I didn't heal Verm because me and Sauce thought poisonings were delayed
19:13   bird   shh arent u dead
19:13   Thiannon   I thought it was really clear!
19:13   Thiannon   If kind of stupid.
19:13   bird   I was so mad about that
19:13   bird   The worst part was
19:13   Liggy   wait am I dead
19:14   bird   I reread all my posts and you could have interpreted all of them either way
19:14   bird   As in, you couldn't tell that I had misunderstood the way poisons worke
19:14   bird   d
19:14   Liggy   DFdjskjlfkdsfks
19:14   Liggy   DANG IT
19:14   Liggy   fml
19:14   bird   sorry breh
19:14   Liggy   ignore my comment
19:14   bird   it wasn't me
19:14   bird   even though i would have if i were a wolf
19:16      *** fank009 joined #TWGNSM
19:16   Thiannon   who we wolf tonight?
19:16   Thiannon   Oh crap.
19:16   fank009   ...
19:16   fank009   got you
19:16   Thiannon   COME ON
19:17   Liggy   this is the first phase I have any opinion and I'm dead!
19:17   Liggy   oh well
19:17   fank009   xD
19:17   Liggy   bye
19:17      *** Liggy left #TWGNSM
19:17   fank009   my timing
19:18   bird   fank who are the wolfs
19:18   fank009   just when I come online...
19:18   fank009   to argue greg/thia combination
19:19   bird   greg/thia could be good
19:19   fank009   as I asked earlier, why was liggy killed over everyone else?
19:20   fank009   wouldnt greg leaning on my humanity be bad for you as a wolf bird??!
19:21   fank009   but does any of that matter when...
19:21   fank009   [13:16:38] <Thiannon> who we wolf tonight?
19:22   fank009   unless im on the wrong line of thought
19:22      *** Liggy joined #TWGNSM
19:22      +++ ChanServ has given owner to Liggy
19:22      +++ ChanServ has given op to Liggy
19:23   Thiannon   It's an old joke from LLF, fank.
19:24   fank009   logs
19:24   Thiannon   A wolf meant to PM his partner that and inadvertently posted it in the topic instead.
19:24   fank009   from earlier
19:24   Thiannon   Bird, can you send them to him? I have to go.

[close]

[fank009]

quick post while mobile cause a big post is meaty work

thoughts, FA/Bird wolf team (optimally) would have killed greg.

-everything is going as predicted eh bds

-anyone thought of matchups outside the teams?

-thia, why did you lay a trap for me??!

[Greg]

So I've been thinking about fank more, and I think the only way he's a wolf is if he's BDS's partner. Otherwise, his vote for blueflower doesn't really make any sense, and from what he said in the post where he voted blueflower he was aware that it was a wolfy move. I still don't think voting for blueflower makes sense if fank was human either, though, so that makes fank/BDS my top suspicion at the moment. Also Bird and Thiannon are looking pretty human (Bird because of his out-of-character rule misreadings: I feel like a wolf would have asked the host privately or something similar. Thiannon just because he's been generally reasonable this game, especially his recent posts: the wolf-tell he just pointed out is also helping his case in my eyes). Firearrow I'm iffy on because of that rather impulsive poisoning, but Bird's made a lot of good points in his favour and he doesn't work particularly well with anyone except Bird as a wolf.