TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[Bird]

Lynching one of the suspicious people we throw bombs at ultimately amounts to the same thing. I just think (or thought) that with little information to go off of, we should attempt to limit the players we kill. But I'm actually seeing quite a few players who seem human to me, and a few who are coming across as suspicious as well. So here's what I think we should do:

Bold and Italicize who you want verm to throw his bomb at.
Bold and underline who you want Greg to throw his bomb at.
And simply bold who you're voting for.

This seems to me the most straightforward way of handling these bombs democratically. If you want to lynch and bomb one person, your post can reflect that using this voting system. It also works with Maestro's plan. Just explain how you're using the system when you use it.

As for the missed wolfing, I've come to different conclusion. I think that there are three levels of analysis at play here. There's the surface level, where the wolves feel they should wolf somebody just because that's what always happens, and not much more thought is given. Then there's the second level, where the wolves think they're being tricky; they deprive us of information so we have to make multiple kills "in the dark." And then there's the third level, the one verm is on. The third level is essentially where you recognize that killing a person won't give the humans that much more to go off of and results in another dead human which is good news for them.

I am arguing that the wolves reached level two of this analysis without pausing to consider the benefits of actually killing another player compared to the benefits of "confusing" us. I think it would be a pretty crazy coincidence if a missed wolfing happened during a phase where there's a perceived benefit to not wolfing anyone (we have to kill multiple players). Plus, night one wolfings are basically never missed accidentally. Also, there's this post where Waddle says both sides are satisfied.

Suspicion list (ordered):
1. fank009 - Not sure what inspired you to vote for askalice23, a person who I feel pretty strongly is human. Worried that pointless guessing of day effects could lead to traps later on, which also didn't make a lot of sense to me.
2. BlackDragonSlayer - Basically, verm's reasoning. BDS is one of the few players who seems to really get why the wolves would intentionally miss a wolfing.
3. Liggy - Hasn't even posted. If he's as inactive this game as he was in the other one I played with him, he's not worth having around.
4. Thiannon - I think he would have argued Nakah's humanity no matter what his own role is, just because it was too obvious not to. Besides that, he hasn't actually said that much about other players, just general strategic stuff. Plus the Maestro vote doesn't really make sense to me.
5. Maestro - Can't really say, I think you would likely have come up with that plan regardless of your role.
6. vermilionvermin - Could still be a wolf, but he thinks all the same people are human that I do (askalice23, FireArrow, Greg (somewhat), me).
7. Blueflower999 - Said Nakah was human (albeit after other people did). Not much info past that.
8. FireArrow - Brought up some questions about what the wolves do/don't know in a very genuine way. A wolf wouldn't have done that.
9. Greg - Made human by the fact that he suggested the hold onto the bombs plan. Without knowing which one would explode, that's a very bold move for a wolf. It could be a bluff as Thiannon suggested, but it doesn't seem terribly likely.
10. askalice23 - Argued for Nocturne's humanity very early and was worried that not using the bombs properly would put the humans at an even greater disadvantage. I've noticed in the past that people always tend to think that the game is balanced in favor of the opposing team (no matter which team they're on) and this is a great example of that.
11. Nakah - Two things make him seem extraordinarily human. First, NocturneofShadow incorrectly interpreted that the first mechanic was suicide. I don't think he was making a  joke, and I believe that he wouldn't have posted that if he was a wolf who actually knew the hidden mechanic. Next, Nakah had the bit where he called for a reroll for the missed wolfing. I doubt this would happen if he were a wolf, as outlined by my logic in response to Greg. I feel bad for making this so obvious since he's probably going to get wolfed now. Nakah, try appealing to the fact that this is your second game in like... forever, and that it would be cruel to wolf you! It worked last game!
12. Bird - 'sup

Other thoughts:
 - It sure would be funny if we were all misinterpreting Waddle again. As in, what if the bombs had 50% chances of exploding independently from one another. So they might both explode or neither of them could!
 - Ordered suspicion lists are so worthless! I'd rather you just say the three players you're suspicious of than twelve players I can't make any sense of!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I see there's some contention about my plan, if you don't want to go through with it, that's fine. I understand that losing the item could be something we don't want to risk, but there's also the chance that it could be something that would help the wolves more than the humans.

About the statement in bold: That would make absolutely no sense and I daresay that that might be unbalanced (two humans die and the wolves get something that helps them... that goes to a human). At worst, I would say that it would be something that only mildly benefits the humans.

And now, before I make my suspicion list, I have one thing I want to say:

3. Liggy - Hasn't even posted. If he's as inactive this game as he was in the other one I played with him, he's not worth having around.

This is raising alarms for me (I'm glad I read it before I finished this post); if Liggy gets the bomb with the item, Bird is saying that, if he stays inactive, he won't use it/be able to use it, which invalidates the point of taking the risk with the bombs in the first place. If Liggy gets the bomb that explodes, then we kill someone who's potentially just an inactive human that could be replaced if inactivity persists (although, to be fair, throwing it to somebody suspicious has a greater risk of a wolf potentially getting the item and wasting the wolfsbane... something which Bird is suggesting, as he has me high on his suspicion list an wants to throw a bomb at me ).

Speaking of his suspicion of me:

2. BlackDragonSlayer - Basically, verm's reasoning. BDS is one of the few players who seems to really get why the wolves would intentionally miss a wolfing.

You're jumping to the conclusion that a slight chance would make me not want to wolf somebody (slight meaning probably not worth it ), and then MENTION it after there is no wolfing. You surely must realize how much the logic doesn't add up there.
Also, in my post that you're jumping to conclusions based on, I specifically said that "The only reason I could see" for there being a missed wolfing, because, of course, it made the most sense.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Now that I read more thoroughly through parts of Bird's suspicion list, I have some more things to say:
You may be surprised to find that I'm not as suspicious of fank this time around... yet... I'm not getting anything unusual from him (more precisely, I'm not getting any bad feelings in addition to what he usually does)... though, I still have trouble finding out some of what he's saying...

And, this:

NocturneofShadow incorrectly interpreted that the first mechanic was suicide. I don't think he was making a  joke, and I believe that he wouldn't have posted that if he was a wolf who actually knew the hidden mechanic.

I agree with the part about why you think Nakah was a human, but this part seems... terrible. It seems to me as if you were taking his post a little too literally; given that the first mechanic was NOT suicide (or you could even consider the bombs to be a form of suicide, but that's just a theory...), I doubt Nocturne could've meant that literally as a human, given how, as I mentioned before, several people who posted before Nocturne were saying "wolf me, wolf me."

If I spot anything else in your suspicion list that gives me a bad feeling, I'll be sure to rip it apart even more.

[Liggy]

I don't know why this always happens but I always start posting after I seriously start getting lynched for inactivity.  I do have have a nasty habit of being inactive though!  Anyways, I'm ready now!

In regards to the bombs, the possibility of the wolves getting the item could be potentially devasting, so just bombing the most suspicious players doesn't strike me as a good idea.  The missing wolfing is probably intentional (and a mistake).  Really the only player inactive enough to miss a wolfing is me, and I can safely say that I can only really recall once where I forgot to send in a power PM.

Suspicions I don't really have yet, for obvious reasons.  I'll talk to people tonight!

[fank009]

To Bird:

I still honestly think all of you are over looking the n1 non wolfing as oh it was planned... maybe so

But I've played a decent amount of games in the past and they all seem to be inactivity when that does occur. I don't understand how we can all play that off like it must have been some cryptic master strategy. Think about it, number wise wouldn't you want to get as many players out as possible. The likely hood of a bomb being held by awolf right now is slim compared to by a human. Plus with nakah joining and Greg already making the statement the wold could have easily passed it to nakah and have a valid excuse.

Let's not rule everything out just yet.

I mentioned going against the grain, (which is weak...) but the thing that sparked the vote, was specifically, "I don't understand how we can all play that off like it must have been some cryptic master strategy". All of alice's speech seems to be pushing against the grain, and I feel that there is a sort of need for humans to believe that. Alice does have a redeeming quality and that is,

"doesnt it make sense that wolves would have done this"

Bird, I have some bias with your list, but there is something that I dont like about your "top 3 suspicions"
basically we have 1 inactive and 2 "generally suspicious" people.  (alarm bells ringing, with 3 easy lynches... (early days though))

Here's something that I DONT like about your leans (at the moment)

1. fank009 - Not sure what inspired you to vote for askalice23, a person who I feel pretty strongly is human.

6. vermilionvermin - Could still be a wolf, but he thinks all the same people are human that I do (askalice23, FireArrow, Greg (somewhat), me).

So, people who are on pact with your leans are human, and people who arent arent??? of course, having people who agree with you is good, but isnt it more/less possible for wolves to "agree with everything"?

And after all that, we have this...

7. Blueflower999 - Said Nakah was human (albeit after other people did). Not much info past that.

... I believe your over looking things bird.
(if you want to come into the chat be my guest.)

And, this:I agree with the part about why you think Nakah was a human, but this part seems... terrible. It seems to me as if you were taking his post a little too literally; given that the first mechanic was NOT suicide (or you could even consider the bombs to be a form of suicide, but that's just a theory...), I doubt Nocturne could've meant that literally as a human, given how, as I mentioned before, several people who posted before Nocturne were saying "wolf me, wolf me."

-As I stated (either here or in the chat), its a null read, nocturne getting it WRONG, doesnt mean a thing. (what I said about randomly guessing, and the plus's/negatives of it) If anything it just shows the confusion of nocturne, which isnt role neutral.)
you have a point about the bombs though BDS.

[Thiannon]

I'm not sure I understand the case against BDS--his understanding of why the wolves would intentionally miss a wolfing suggests he's more likely to be a wolf? Isn't he working outside of his best interests, then?

Bird, my point (and verm's) regarding Maestro is that if greg and verm are both humans, one of the smartest wolf plays is to have them both hold on to the bombs. At least, it's much less riskier than the democratic move, which puts the wolves back in play as targets.

I'm fine with bombing Liggy. He's really tough to read as a wolf, and if he's human and doesn't die, I trust him to make a good call with the item. I think people are worrying too much about the wolves getting the item. (I don't think it will be an extra kill, personally. That's a lot of extra kills.)

I have some more stuff about Bird's wolf play that I'll have to post later. Also I have a idea about wolf-tells that I think I might finally be able to test out this game, whoo.

[Greg]

I'm not sure I understand the case against BDS--his understanding of why the wolves would intentionally miss a wolfing suggests he's more likely to be a wolf? Isn't he working outside of his best interests, then?

He thinks that missing a wolfing is a good idea, which is exactly what happened. A lot of us, on the other hand, think that it was mistake and have reasons to back it up. So it stands to reason that BDS is more likely to have skipped out on the wolfing than those people.

I'm probably not going to be on the rest of the phase. People seem to think that I should bomb someone else, and Liggy is the name that's come up, so he's the one I'll be bombing. If anyone has any objections they'd better voice them in the next 30 minutes!

[Greg]

Wait, I have to post to throw it.

Liggy.

[Liggy]

[20:09:21 EST]   Greg   Liggy are you here.
[20:09:31 EST]   Liggy   yeah
[20:10:31 EST]   Greg   I'm bombing you atm!
[20:10:58 EST]   Greg   Wait, I guess the whole voicing any objections thing is pointless since I don't even control it anymore.
[20:11:27 EST]   Greg   Eh, whatever, it's probably better if you have it. I have a midterm this evening.
[20:13:36 EST]   Liggy   oh huh
[20:13:39 EST]   Liggy   that's an issue
[20:13:54 EST]   Greg   It's only an issue if you're a wolf!
[20:14:16 EST]   Liggy   no I mean
[20:14:16 EST]   Greg   Well, I mean, I'm the only one who thinks the humans should have the bombs so w/e
[20:14:39 EST]   Liggy   if we bomb a wolf
[20:14:44 EST]   Liggy   they could just pass it off
[20:14:51 EST]   Liggy   I'll just keep my bomb though
[20:14:55 EST]   Liggy   since if everyone wants me bombed
[20:15:01 EST]   Liggy   I'm not on liberty to really say no!
[20:15:11 EST]   Liggy   it's pointless for me to die but it would be worse if I bombed a human
[20:15:15 EST]   Liggy   at*
[20:15:35 EST]   Greg   Oh. Yeah, that's actually a good point.
[20:15:43 EST]   Greg   At least we'll know they're a wolf though.
[20:15:50 EST]   Greg   Unless they have an amazing reason or something.

[askalice23]

Greg brings up a good point about bds. he seems to be the only one to make it a point the wolves intentionally missed it. Plus I already had my suspicions and posted them earlier so my vote is going to bds

[Bird]

It's actually beneficial for the item to be a killing power. That way we can lynch them if they don't do what we want.

With a seer power, they can just lie about the result, which is much more dangerous.

[blueflower999]

For some reason I find Liggy to be the most suspicious out of everyone. The fact that no wolfing was made night one and he wasn't around until just recently might have something to do with each other. Especially the fact that he's actually a really good player would suggest to me that he wouldn't miss the start of a game unless it was part of his wolfy plan.

This is more of a gut feeling than anything else though.

[fank009]

:/ i like how discussion has progressed backwards :/
For the meantime my votes "purpose" has changed to a safety

[FireArrow]

Do you guys really think BDS would be stupid enough as a wolf to sell himself out like that? It takes half a brain cell to know to keep your reasoning a secret as a wolf.

I'm gonna put my vote on blueflower999. A reoccurring pattern I noticed is that the wolves are always the slightly active human-looking people everyone forgets about. I think keeping the bombs on verm/greg is actually a good idea (or if you're feeling lucky, we go maestro's way), because we know the item will end up on an active most likely human player.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Greg brings up a good point about bds. he seems to be the only one to make it a point the wolves intentionally missed it. Plus I already had my suspicions and posted them earlier so my vote is going to bds

He thinks that missing a wolfing is a good idea, which is exactly what happened. A lot of us, on the other hand, think that it was mistake and have reasons to back it up. So it stands to reason that BDS is more likely to have skipped out on the wolfing than those people.

Read this, please:

You're jumping to the conclusion that a slight chance would make me not want to wolf somebody (slight meaning probably not worth it ), and then MENTION it after there is no wolfing. You surely must realize how much the logic doesn't add up there.
Also, in my post that you're jumping to conclusions based on, I specifically said that "The only reason I could see" for there being a missed wolfing, because, of course, it made the most sense.

That being said, I'm voting Bird for his "shoddy suspicion list" (though, to be fair to Bird, I didn't even make one ).