TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[askalice23]

I guess I'm a rookie again lol. To me makes very little sense then again I have no idea who I'm playing against.

If I have to take a stab since no one else will make things interesting. I am very uneasy about BDS thiasson and Greg...

Greg: basically because he originally tried to give it to nakah cause he just joined or if I were a wolf I would have played the let's keep the bombs card... suspicion level is very low but idk

The other two: in the beginning they posted literally one after another usually backing the other up. I mean at one point the posts were no less than 5 mins apart. Just my opinion at the moment not much to go off of.

[Bird]

I think Maestro's plan is a good one. It could reduce 2 potential kills (without much evidence to back our choices) to one. It might be difficult to orchestrate, but I think it's much more likely than trying to get 12 players to make suspicion lists.

I'm leaning human on askalice23, Nakah, Greg and FireArrow at the moment, and I think we should let Maestro live just because his plan was a pretty good idea (although it doesn't say much about his alliance). I'm cool seeing anyone else get lynched or bombed. Hopefully more suspicions arise as the game continues.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I guess I'm a rookie again lol. To me makes very little sense then again I have no idea who I'm playing against.

If I have to take a stab since no one else will make things interesting. I am very uneasy about BDS thiasson and Greg...

Greg: basically because he originally tried to give it to nakah cause he just joined or if I were a wolf I would have played the let's keep the bombs card... suspicion level is very low but idk

The other two: in the beginning they posted literally one after another usually backing the other up. I mean at one point the posts were no less than 5 mins apart. Just my opinion at the moment not much to go off of.

I assume you mean this and this, in which case:
1: I don't really see posting after somebody to be really odd, especially if/because you just happen to be online at the same time. And if that were the case, there would be other people to consider.
2: I don't really understand what you mean by "backing the other up" when both of my responses were intended to be humorous. More recently, these two posts.

In terms of my own suspicions, I'd say slightly Bird and, by extension, Maestro, mostly because of the crazy plan of trying to lynch the bomb holders (which is frivolous/pointless, especially if the non-exploding bomb turns out to be really helpful). In essence, it doesn't make sense to lynch the bomb holders just because one of them is holding an exploding bomb (risk-reward ratio doesn't seem too much in favor of the humans with the plan; although it is still questionable otherwise, it makes no sense to increase your chances of a bad outcome)!

[fank009]

In terms of my own suspicions, I'd say slightly Bird and, by extension, Maestro, mostly because of the crazy plan of trying to lynch the bomb holders (which is frivolous/pointless, especially if the non-exploding bomb turns out to be really helpful). In essence, it doesn't make sense to lynch the bomb holders just because one of them is holding an exploding bomb (risk-reward ratio doesn't seem too much in favor of the humans with the plan; although it is still questionable otherwise, it makes no sense to increase your chances of a bad outcome)!

Maestro's plan, imo, is somewhat humanish

Its as much risk to lynch between those holding bombs, then it is to let the bombs die and lynch someone who doesnt have a bomb.) As discussed, if the reward is something like a seering or a vigging, is it really that important? given that the wolfsbane wears off on any chance to use it? It does have some scum attributes, but there are other factors, that point to this being a human plan.

[vermilionvermin]

Sorry, I've been inactive.  To tie up a few loose ends:

First off, on whether the missed wolfing was intentional or accidental:  I don't think it's intentional, (or if so, the wolves made a bad choice) because it actually hurts the wolves.  This is a key point and explains why I wouldn't intentionally miss the wolfing.  Not only does it skew numbers in the favor of the humans during lynches, (humans prefer an odd number of players at the start of day phases, which will be the case in every day phase after this one), it will also make it so that the humans get an extra kill.

From the rules: 

Every Day Phase, there'll be a new, different mechanic to the game! The Wolves will be told the mechanic the previous Night Phase.

The wolves knew that we were going to get an extra kill today.  Numbers-wise, it gives us an extra kill (we have 6 total, barring future alterations the wolves couldn't be aware of yet)  There's also the potential that due to screwy game mechanics the wolves were forced or given a choice of better powers if they skipped a wolfing.  We don't know!

On what we should do with the bombs, I don't see why either plan is a good idea.  Maybe it's because it's really late, but I just don't see the benefit.  Why don't we just have greg or me throw our bombs at the two most suspicious people and lynch one of them?  If the deaths happen at the same time there should be just as much chance it succeeds.

Here are my thoughts on players thus far.  I meant to order it but then I didn't end up doing it.  :

1. BlackDragonSlayer:  BDS is high on the list because he believes that numerically, the missed wolfing benefits the wolves.  This would explain why that would happen even if it hurts the wolves numbers-wise.
2. Greg:  I believe that Greg was watching the thread during Night 1 given how active he's been to me.  He kind of reminds me of how I acted during Night 1 and Day 1 as a human during that last game when the wolfing was missed.  I agree that his coming up with the bomb plan seems particularly human.
3. Thiannon:  It's curious that Thiannon wasn't the one replaced given that he was the one asking for the wolfing, but since then he's actually been acting pretty human.  Or at least I thought so when I typed this up earlier.  Skimmed the thread and couldn't find any examples.  Will look more into him later.
4. askalice23:  He strikes me as human because he called bird, and fank009 out on the missed wolfing being a bad plan but misunderstood why.  It's not a bad plan because we could eliminate players quickly.  Fank's reasoning is objectively the opposite of the truth, and bird's is objectionable because there are so few inactives to pin the missed wolfing on, in addition to it being a bad strategy numerically.  I feel like a wolf would have a better understanding.
5. Liggy:  Not enough to read
7. blueflower999:  Not enough to read
8. FireArrow:  I was going to say I thought he was a wolf, but then I realized that how he reacted to Nocturne's post about the hidden mechanic being suicide is actually pretty human.  A wolf would be less likely to come to the conclusion that Nocturne was a wolf from Nocturne guessing at the hidden mechanic.  A wolf would know he's wrong and be more likely to assume the opposite (that Nocturne's confused).
9. MaestroUGC:  My original reaction was that Maestro's probably human, but I reconsidered and am coming to the conclusion that he could just as easily be a wolf.  I know I'm a human, and greg's looking pretty human too.  If Maestro's a wolf, he knows that (and thus knows that he can be assured that Day 1 will end in one or two humans' deaths).
10. Bird:  I do agree that Bird would probably be less likely to misunderstand the powers of the blue bomb and red bomb as a wolf, but at the same time he's acting pretty weird and he's Bird, which means that he should be probably three spots higher on your suspicion list than any other player doing the same actions!  His conclusion about me being a wolf is kind of silly when the quality of players this game is above average and there's nobody super inactive to pin it on.  Everything that applies to fank also applies to him since he also thought it was good for the wolves number-wise!
11. fank009:  I don't have much to say about fank.  I thought he argued that there was some benefit to missing the wolfing on purpose but I missed a "not" somewhere in his sentence I think.  My bad.
12. Nakah:  Another player I think is human, though for slightly different reasons than some may think.  As many have already pointed out, there's the fact that NocturneOfShadow dropped out to let him have a spot.  However, given the general demeanor I've gleaned from NocturneOfShadow, I feel like he would be more likely to drop out should he get a wolf role.  He seems a little apprehensive about TWG, and I feel like having a wolf role would increase that apprehension and make him more likely to volunteer for the drop-out.  However, I'm inclined to believe that this spot wouldn't have missed the wolfing.  NocturneOfShadow would've had time to make the wolfing before dropping out because he was in contact with the host, and Nakah confirmed having received his PM right before the phase ended.  I don't know Nakah's playstyle very well but he doesn't strike me outright as the type to play crazy mindgames by intentionally missing a wolfing.  Nocturne's comment about the hidden mechanic being suicide makes sense if the wolves are Nakah/Thiannon, which we can't rule out, but it's definitely not worth lynching on today.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

1. BlackDragonSlayer:  BDS is high on the list because he believes that numerically, the missed wolfing benefits the wolves.  This would explain why that would happen even if it hurts the wolves numbers-wise.

The reason I said that was because there IS a slightly smaller chance that a wolf is hit by a bomb (if the humans choose somebody at random, or someone who they couldn't care whether they live or die ), emphasis on the slightly, which I mentioned in the post(s) which you seem to be drawing the conclusion on.

[fank009]

Thank you Verm, for encouraging me to do a lean list and everything else...

Looking human
-Maestro; you dont no wolf, and then make a plan that only one kill will go through, there is some wolf points in the fact about wiping out the gift from the bomb, but at the moment, im leaning that as more null than anything. because it CAN be anything, for anyone.
-Greg; "I am a human meat shield, I dont mind dying for the cause"

Actives leaning in the middle,
-BDS; normal BDS at the moment, not really going with the grain, AND having many contrasting answers to various gameplay related q's, but you never know with this guy.
-bird; I dont like the list. it feels like its a setup, but maybe Im overthinking it. Got some good posts, and the only thing I feel damming is the list.
-Firearrow; maybe its the fact that I feel that we are on the same line of thinking, makes some good attacking posts, hasnt said anything that I feel is telling yet. although, maybe my line of thinking, something is a bit off...
-Thiradell; Thira seems like the opposite of FA, I dont like the posts, yet there is something about them that screams villa at times.

No lean/inactive
-nakah; I dont see you as clear as other's do, nocturne wasnt much of an example, and you havent convinced me of much either. at the moment, Im picking up null reads from you
-Blueflower; no lean at all, just some general hi and One(?) post.
-liggy; ditto

Wolfish
Askalice; the vote originated from you, trying to push the idea that inactivity could have been the cause of no wolfing, seeing how the grain is going, this should be considered null. Got a few ideas I agree with, but Im keeping tabs for the above reasoning for now...
verm; in one way this should be a null tell, but, there is a few things that I dont like.
-since when do humans have 6 kills???, I thought wolves make some? (or am I missing something???)
-going against the grain in terms of the bombs,the fact that you have a bomb and "saving yourself" gets wolf points, human points for having a better Idea for them (can we get the co-ordination together???)
-mixing a few points, (should be given null), mainly askalice, having no interaction with me.
something that isnt directly wolfish but is interesting, is that you agree with alice, in the sense that the no wolfing wasnt "intentional"


I think to paraphrase thiradell, "we are spending too much time" worrying on what happened in the night, we should be worrying about more what to do with them bombs rather than focus on "trivial" matters. I must say, verm has a good idea, touches right on with my (untold) line of thinking...

[Thiannon]

All right, I goofed slightly last night; I thought the "item" that the good bomb gave the holder was the Wolfsbane power. Basically, I didn't read the "also" in Waddles's post:

This Day Phase, two bombs are distributed: the Blue Bomb and the Red Bomb. One of them blows up at the end of the phase, and the other one holds an item to be used the next Day Phase. This item also grants Wolfsbane abilities for the next Night Phase.

That makes greg look significantly more human, because there's actually a benefit to a player risking his life for the good bomb--potentially. If the item is a vigi, all we've really won for ourselves is three phases' time to decide who to kill (definitely non-zero value, though). A seering would be more useful, particularly if people are convinced greg/verm is human. But I still think greg's plan does more to make him look human than it does help the humans. Ditto Maestro's plan, which as verm pointed out, makes a lot of sense if he's a wolf and neither greg nor verm is his partner. If only one player dies today and there are no other multiple-kill gimmicks, then we'll be back on schedule for another stupid wolf-friendly night-end game.

The problem with your logic is that you're saying that if I'm a human, I should throw the bomb, but that if I do I'm wolfy! I mean, they're certainly fair points, but they're also contradicting each other.

I'm not sure what you mean, Greg! If you're a human, you shouldn't care about looking wolfy (or not too much, anyway). Anyway, I'm more inclined to think you're human with Waddle's confirmation and the revelation that the item isn't the Wolfsbane power. Though again, that leads me to think you should throw the bomb. I dunno, I'm just really wary of any plan that has a 42% chance of killing human verm.

Maestro for now.

Oh, one more thing, about Nakah--I really, really think he's human. Particularly convincing is Waddle's syntax here:

No wolfing PM was received. Fuck you wolves, this could mean I have to come up with more gimmicks.

Not only does his wording seem to suggest the missed wolfing was unintentional (it seems to preclude the courtesy, "we're not wolfing anyone tonight" post you'd hope the wolves would otherwise send), but I find it hard to believe he would drop an f-bomb on a guy who missed the wolfing because he'd only been in the game an hour because of the host's own mistake.

[Waddle Bro]

By "wolfing PM" I meant a PM from a wolf with a bolded name on it. Also the f-bomb was dropped because I hadn't planned for wolves not wanting to wolf!!!

And NocturneOfShadows was replaced because he wouldn't have played at all if it wasn't for my mistake!

[Thiannon]

Oh, okay. Well I still think Nakah looks really human!

[Greg]

Verm: I said earlier that I'd been on the night phase. I just didn't think it was worth posting since we had no info anyway.

List of sorts. Not ordered because I'm lazy.
1. BDS: Kinda same reasoning as verm. I also think that the no wolfing was bad for the wolves, so BDS kinda makes sense if that's the case.
2. Thiannon: Thiannon's pointed out a lot of things we might have missed otherwise, and his change of opinion on me as well as the reasons for it make me think he's human.
3. Askalice: Seems human but I'm not really sure why. I'm in a rush ATM so I'll look into him later.
4. Liggy is super inactive.
5. Verm: Just popped in with his list and suggestion for bombings. While I think his plan is better than Maestro's or Thiannon's we should keep in mind that it works in his favor if he's a wolf. His list looks pretty human though.
6. Blueflower is also super inactive!
7. Firearrow: Nothing on him off the top of my head. I don't actually remember anything in particular he's said and haven't got time right now.
8. Maestro's plan is a worse version of verm's, and also works if he's a wolf. I'm pretty wary at this point.
 9.Bird: Confusion about the bombs makes him look human but I wouldn't put it past him to fake that.
10. Fank: Fank is the same as usual... which means I've got the same issues as usual understanding his posts.
11. Nakah: I think he's human for reasons we've all been over already.

I think that I'm going to vote BDS for now. I'm going to miss most of the rest of the phase but should be able to get on before the end.

[MaestroUGC]

I see there's some contention about my plan, if you don't want to go through with it, that's fine. I understand that losing the item could be something we don't want to risk, but there's also the chance that it could be something that would help the wolves more than the humans.

[fank009]

I see there's some contention about my plan, if you don't want to go through with it, that's fine. I understand that losing the item could be something we don't want to risk, but there's also the chance that it could be something that would help the wolves more than the humans.

So much comtention on maestro, yet verm has basically, the same plan woth the same beefits,
Whats the difference between the two, and why is verm sliding under the radar???

[MaestroUGC]

The main issue I have with Verm's plan is that I don't think we can come to an agreement on who to throw the bombs to.

[blueflower999]

I'm curious as to why Thiannon voted for Maestro. Personally Maestro is one of the most human looking players at atm to me. His strategy seems sincere and might actually work.

At the moment I'm not sure who to vote for. If we're going to KitB the two bomb holders, who are the bombs going to be thrown at? Or will they just stay with Greg and Verm?