TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[FireArrow]

If the wolves don't know which bomb is which, then Greg is human. This is because he would have suggested a plan that has a 50% chance of killing him, something I doubt a wolf would do.

Maybe. Even if the wolves don't know which bomb is which, they could know the reward for choosing correctly (knowing it's worth the risk.) Do the wolves know what the benefits are for choosing the correct bomb Waddle?

I think we should learn from our mistakes of previous games though: No N1 wolfing, we end up lynching inactives, the wolves end up being the last 2 inactives we didn't lynch. >_>

[Thiannon]

Good points, Bird. But I still think that crusading against human ignorance and then leveraging it for human-points is a little too dirty, even for you.

Re: Greg (I actually skimmed his post earlier): He could be a wolf banking on our letting him off of the hold-the-bomb plan. If we decide he's human because he proposed it, our decision should be to let him throw it, and he's smart enough to know that. Also, if he's human, he should know that his plan is valuable to us only insofar as it demonstrates his humanity. Taking a 50% chance of killing a confirmed human (which greg is to greg) is actually a really dumb move for a human to make.

Of course this is all null if the wolves know which bomb is which.

FireArrow, the problem with that is that the wolves will expect us to learn from our previous games. I "learned from my previous game" right into a painful loss on LLF a couple months ago. (Refusing to deviate from a red seering that turned out to be the Miller.)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

FireArrow, the problem with that is that the wolves will expect us to learn from our previous games. I "learned from my previous game" right into a painful loss on LLF a couple months ago. (Refusing to deviate from a red seering that turned out to be the Miller.)

But the opposite of that could be true; rather, the wolves could also be expecting us to be cautious like that, and ignore other valuable information (essentially: either way poses great risk).

[Waddle Bro]

Waddle, do the wolves get any information extraneous to what you posted in the topic update? Like which bomb is the good one?

Nope!

[fank009]

But the opposite of that could be true; rather, the wolves could also be expecting us to be cautious like that, and ignore other valuable information (essentially: either way poses great risk).

I know paranoia is your game, but is it really necesary stating every double bluff out there??? want to let the wolves knowing that you are on to them??? ()

[MaestroUGC]

Waddle, when the end of the phase comes, who is killed first, the bomb holder or the lynch victim?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I know paranoia is your game, but is it really necesary stating every double bluff out there??? want to let the wolves knowing that you are on to them??? ()

Because people seem to ignore them otherwise (as evidenced by the post I quoted).

[Greg]

Good points, Bird. But I still think that crusading against human ignorance and then leveraging it for human-points is a little too dirty, even for you.

Re: Greg (I actually skimmed his post earlier): He could be a wolf banking on our letting him off of the hold-the-bomb plan. If we decide he's human because he proposed it, our decision should be to let him throw it, and he's smart enough to know that. Also, if he's human, he should know that his plan is valuable to us only insofar as it demonstrates his humanity. Taking a 50% chance of killing a confirmed human (which greg is to greg) is actually a really dumb move for a human to make.

The problem with your logic is that you're saying that if I'm a human, I should throw the bomb, but that if I do I'm wolfy! I mean, they're certainly fair points, but they're also contradicting each other.

If we throw the bombs at the wolfiest-looking players, like you suggested earlier, we're much more likely to lose this item, whatever it is. It might be a vigi for all we know, which is really dangerous in the wolves' hands! I do think it's safer if the humans get it even if we have to lose one of us.

[Waddle Bro]

Waddle, when the end of the phase comes, who is killed first, the bomb holder or the lynch victim?

Both die at the same time.

[MaestroUGC]

Alright, so I'm proposing a plan to try and get around having two deaths this phase:

A KitB between to two Bomb Holders (Greg and Verm). Waddle says the explosing and lynch occur at the same time, so we can try and take out the player holding the exploding bomb, thereby only having one death this phase.

The other option is to just hedge our bets and lynch one of the holders outright.

The downside to this is we run the risk of losing whatever the item would have been if the KitB ends up taking out both players, or we choose the wrong bomb holder to lynch.

Either way, it's a 50/50 shot of succeeding, and any other option will result in two certain deaths.

[askalice23]

I still honestly think all of you are over looking the n1 non wolfing as oh it was planned... maybe so

But I've played a decent amount of games in the past and they all seem to be inactivity when that does occur. I don't understand how we can all play that off like it must have been some cryptic master strategy. Think about it, number wise wouldn't you want to get as many players out as possible. The likely hood of a bomb being held by awolf right now is slim compared to by a human. Plus with nakah joining and Greg already making the statement the wold could have easily passed it to nakah and have a valid excuse.

Let's not rule everything out just yet.

[fank009]

askalice more like, ask fank why the vote is on you

[MaestroUGC]

I believe the wolves are playing conservatively, since they had no idea which bomb is which, or who would get them, I'm assuming they wanted to better their odds of avoiding holding them by not wolfing night 1. It's a negligable benefit, but with two deaths this phase, and with not much else for us to go on, there's a pretty strong chance they'd survive today either way.

Nice to see you back askaslice.

[askalice23]

Why thank you, maestro it is nice to be back. Really missed this game.


All I'm trying to say is why rule inactivity out. It could be planned it could not be. We still have a decent amount of time left to figure it out, but why is everyone jumping to great strategy here. If I were the wolf id want to limit the number of humans asap.

They wolf last night were down to 11. Odds are we lose 2 humans tonight if we aren't careful that's down to 9. Then another wolfing 8. If all wolves survive they are 4 phases away from winning. Why put it off?

[MaestroUGC]

It saves them from having people to make assumptions based on who was wolfed.

And the last time a "No Wolfing" was made was, in fact, great strategy.