TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[Greg]

Sup.

Anyway, if we don't know which bomb is which I think it's probably better for us to give them to human-looking players. Sure, we'll lose a human, but that's basically canceled out by the lack of a wolfing last phase, and it guarantees that we get the item.

Also going to agree with Bird that I don't think the lack of wolfing is an inactive move, since everyone posted last phase except for me and Liggy, and I was watching the thread! So there must have been at least one wolf online last phase. However, I don't think the lack of wolfing really makes much sense as a plan! Bird's already made a list of people that he thinks feasibly could have come up with this plan, and since we know that it wasn't due to inactivity we know one of those people is probably a wolf. So basically the wolves have narrowed down the possibilities for us. It also discounts the possibility of effects later in the game that result in less kills than normal.

Anyway if you guys have any ideas on who I should toss this bomb at, suggest away.

[askalice23]

How is that a reasonable strategy? They wolf someone last night then wehave the potential to knock out 3 people and then they wolf again. That drops us already down to 7 players and the odds are heavily stacked in their favor on taking out 5 humans plus the bombs may or may not explode, so they have very little to lose. Doesn't make sense to me.

[Greg]

One of the bombs isn't going to explode. It contains an item and makes the holder wolfsbane for a night phase. So actually we're only going to be killing 2 people this day phase.

What Bird is referring to is the fact that if the wolves killed someone this night phase, if kills are normal for the rest of the game, the wolves win one phase earlier on a day phase, which makes no difference (since wolves control the night phase kill). They're using this as a misdirection tactic, most likely.

Also you guys should come to the chat. I'll be there for a while.

[fank009]

Thoughts, questions because im too lazy to quote everything whle mobile.

Bird- I somehat like your reasoning behind the no wolfing, but, 1) from that list, is it more likely for it to be mixed or both wolves are in that list? 2) I myself doubt that the player holding wolfsbane will die night 3, because, anything to the contrary would be "telling" right?

Nakah- what did you think of nocturne's "entrance"

Greg, isnt it typically experience, that the wolfiest players are humans, and vice versa?

I somewhat agree with bird, the no wolfing Was thought out, but I dont think its as simpe as he "thinks"

The advantage of wolfing, is that it brings numbers to even AND it brings lylo closer, the disadvantage is, it gives town one confirmed human...
Although the mechanic is a substitute for the wolfing, it also takes out the clear dead we get from them wofing, as we have no real reason to know if the bombed person was a wolf or not.
I would say that THIS is the reason the wolves no wolfed....

(Going to reread last phase, see who would have been a "good wolfing")

(Im sure there's something else as well...)

[blueflower999]

This might not be saying much, but would Nocturne really have been willing to give up his role if he was a wolf? My bet is that he was a human and therefore was willing to give his role to Nakah when Waddle asked.

If this is true, then I think Nakah might be the closest one of us to a human.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

They're using this as a misdirection tactic, most likely.

The only reason I could see for missing a wolfing (since the wolves would likely know that people weren't inactive) is that there's a slightly greater lynching/bomb pool, so that chance that a wolf is killed is slightly less.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This might not be saying much, but would Nocturne really have been willing to give up his role if he was a wolf? My bet is that he was a human and therefore was willing to give his role to Nakah when Waddle asked.

If this is true, then I think Nakah might be the closest one of us to a human.

...or the opposite could be true (e.g. Nocturne felt unprepared being a wolf, and, given earlier suspicions against him, however unjustifiable, was willing to give up his role)... just a theory, off course, and I think we shouldn't entirely judge him on that (the fact that Nocturne was willing to give up his role in general).

[fank009]

The only reason I could see for missing a wolfing (since the wolves would likely know that people weren't inactive) is that there's a slightly greater lynching/bomb pool, so that chance that a wolf is killed is slightly less.

... the odds dont change of being bombed,  because its whoever the bomb holders give it to, IF they give it away...
There all ready a lesser pool for the lynch due to the bombs...

This might not be saying much, but would Nocturne really have been willing to give up his role if he was a wolf? My bet is that he was a human and therefore was willing to give his role to Nakah when Waddle asked.

If this is true, then I think Nakah might be the closest one of us to a human.

.... somewhat a good point, how do we know that he is not intimidated though???

[Greg]

So I've changed my mind about giving the bombs to the most human-looking players. I think that me and Verm should hold on to them.

Wolves don't want bombs. A 50% chance of killing off one of the two wolves is not worth the chance of getting this item with unknown abilities, I think. Humans certainly want the bombs more than wolves, as they're more expendable and the item's just as beneficial. So I think someone throwing a bomb at someone else, barring a really good reason, is probably good evidence against them.

If people agree that me and Verm should keep the bombs and one or both of us is a wolf, the wolves would be stuck. Either they'd have to throw away the bomb and risk getting lynched, or hold onto it and risk getting killed. Obviously if we don't pass on the bombs there's probably a greater risk of the wolves getting the item but I think it's probably worthwhile. Odds are both of us are humans and we'll get the item anyway.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

... the odds dont change of being bombed,  because its whoever the bomb holders give it to, IF they give it away...
There all ready a lesser pool for the lynch due to the bombs...

With one extra human still alive, the chance that the bomb is given to a wolf is slightly less.

[FireArrow]

Nakah- what did you think of nocturne's "entrance"

I second this, just because Nocturne has been replaced doesn't change the role. That being said, I don't really see what the current mechanic has to do with suicide (I guess if you held onto a bomb.)

@Bird Your post doesn't really make much sense to me, and I'm not to keen on blindly trusting you.  I guess it's worth mentioning that you taking charge like this is the same thing you do as a human (then again, I've never played a game with you where you were a wolf.)

[Thiannon]

This is stupid. We're going to spend another whole game debating whether the N1 kill was deliberately missed. Missed wolfings should been random.org'd like in the old days. Also, the night-end rule still needs to be changed.

Waddle, do the wolves get any information extraneous to what you posted in the topic update? Like which bomb is the good one?

I think the obvious strategy here is to have everyone make a suspicion list, and then to lynch our top aggregate suspicion and bomb the next two. The "good" bomb is completely useless, since the wolves won't target whoever has it and we can't risk giving it to someone who looks human because there's a 50% chance we kill him instead.

Suspicion lists should probably be PMed to Nakah, who is pretty obviously human based on Bird's analysis, or Bird, whose misreading the bomb info looks really human (I don't think he'd play dumb like that as a wolf--or I've never seen him do it before, anyway. Plus he's recently been crusading against people looking human for misreading game information.)

[Bird]

Let me respond to a few people before I talk plans:

@Thiannon: Not wolfing people is a great option! I don't know what "good old days" you're talking about... the 1980s? The night-end rule is great also, get out of here! And just so you know, I play dumb as a wolf pretty often.

@FireArrow: Let me try rephrasing the logic. I assume you're referring to the fact that I'm saying Nakah is human. A TWC asking for a game to be rerolled is very serious, and I think Nakah has enough respect for his TWC position to only ask for a reroll if he actually believed the game should be rerolled. Due to that, it wouldn't make any sense for him to not wolf anyone, then ask for a reroll because nobody is wolfed. He wouldn't consciously create a situation where the game would need to be rerolled, and I don't think he would ask for a reroll just to make himself look more human!

I think there's actually... a striking amount of cleverness to the "have them hold onto the bombs" plan proposed by Greg. If Waddle responds to Fiver saying that the wolves don't know which bomb is which, I think that we should definitely give that plan some serious thought.

Otherwise we should just decide in the thread. Thiannon, I like the idea of everyone creating suspicion lists, but I think you would be disappointed by the amount of human participation that plan would get. There simply isn't enough information for people to want to put in the effort.

[FireArrow]

@FireArrow: Let me try rephrasing the logic. I assume you're referring to the fact that I'm saying Nakah is human. A TWC asking for a game to be rerolled is very serious, and I think Nakah has enough respect for his TWC position to only ask for a reroll if he actually believed the game should be rerolled. Due to that, it wouldn't make any sense for him to not wolf anyone, then ask for a reroll because nobody is wolfed. He wouldn't consciously create a situation where the game would need to be rerolled, and I don't think he would ask for a reroll just to make himself look more human!

For some reason, I was under the impression that Nakah wasn't active till after night 1. I see what you mean now.

Though what makes greg human? I think the bombs going to Nakah and Bird would make more sense tbh.

[Bird]

If the wolves don't know which bomb is which, then Greg is human. This is because he would have suggested a plan that has a 50% chance of killing him, something I doubt a wolf would do.