TWG LXII: This Game Is Encouraging When It Comes To Activity

[Thiannon]

[20:14:39 EST]   Liggy   if we bomb a wolf
[20:14:44 EST]   Liggy   they could just pass it off

Wait, where was this stated? I was under the impression Greg and verm each got to just pick a target.

[Greg]

The bomb holder can throw the bomb to whoever. Like I said though, we'll know something's fishy immediately if they do without a reason.

[vermilionvermin]

So I was thinking about this more and I decided that it's best if the person we bomb and the person we lynch are not the same person.  If they are the same person, the numbers go back into not being in our favor.

Because of this, I feel most comfortable voting for BDS.  First off, him wrongly thinking that the numbers are in the wolves' favor due to the missed wolfing explains why the wolves would have missed it on purpose.

Personally, I'm not sure of who I do want to bomb, but I just realized it shouldn't be Maestro.  Waddle:  Do the wolves know what the item in the good bomb is?  If so, we can learn a lot about Maestro's identity by finding out what's in the bomb.  If it helps the wolves, he's probably a human.  If it helps the humans it makes his plan more suspicious (because it increases the chance the item gets lynched away).

[Waddle Bro]

Do the wolves know what the item in the good bomb is?

No. Wolves were told the exact same information I revealed at the beginning of the Night Phase, except the Bomb holders.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Because of this, I feel most comfortable voting for BDS.  First off, him wrongly thinking that the numbers are in the wolves' favor due to the missed wolfing explains why the wolves would have missed it on purpose.

READ THE THIRD PARAGRAPH. NOW.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The only thing I ever said about "the numbers being in the wolves' favor" is the slight (ALWAYS IN ITALICS) chance THAT A BOMB, SPECIFICALLY, THE EXPLODING ONE, IS NOT GIVEN TO ONE OF THEM. EMPHASIS ON THE SLIGHT.

And also, if you were judging everybody by the logic you're using for me (which is pretty spotty, given how many of my posts you seem not to have read, including a response to your previous suspicion list), you'd also suspect Bird, who said "The wolves recognized that we would have to kill two players (since they get effects ahead of time), and capitalized on it," and also said, "Not wolfing people is a great option!"

[vermilionvermin]

First off, I made a mistake suggesting that we throw a bomb at the player we're lynching.  That just skews things back into the favor of the wolves, numbers-wise.  It'd be smarter to throw the bombs at the two most suspicious players we're not lynching.

I'll start off by eliminating who I'm throwing my bomb at.  Obviously I'm not throwing it on myself, (that'd be pretty dumb since I'm a human and it means I could die) or Liggy (I can't because greg's throwing his bomb at Liggy).  That leaves me with 10 options.

10.  Nakah:  I outlined things in my suspicion list.  You're very likely a human in my eyes.  You had enough time to make the wolfing if you wanted to, probably not enough time to come up with reasoning sufficient to skip a wolfing, and asked for a reroll.

9.  FireArrow:  I'm sticking by my original assessment of him, which is that a wolf would be less likely to accuse NakahturneOfShadow based on NOS suspecting suicide to be the first mechanic.  A wolf wouldn't know that suicide wasn't the mechanic, methinks.

8.  Greg:  I doubt you'd offer to dive on the bomb as a wolf.  Additionally, I feel like you would've done something to demonstrate that you were active Night 1 if you skipped the wolfing on purpose.

7.  Thiannon:  I'm thinking Thiannon is likely a human because his behavior really doesn't fit what a wolf would do regarding the missed wolfing.  He was very active Night 1, but once the missed wolfing was announced, and then he argued that it would be silly to quibble about it for the rest of Day 1 (the irony is strong).  Additionally, his suggestion on how we handle the bombs today is one I'd expect least from a wolf who thought about the numbers.  His suggestion (which is the method we're going by, btw) gives the humans one extra kill should the game and means we start Day 2 and the rest of the days with an odd number of players alive.

6.  BDS:  I'm actually switching my opinion on BDS after doing some rereading!  Lately, I've noticed that BDS seems to get angry when he's a human.  This might just be because he could have different behavior on LLF (the one wolf game out of three was there) but he seemed pretty angry in that Super Smash Bros. Melee game and in the game where fank and davy were wolves.  Additionally, I'm thinking that if the wolfing was missed on purpose, it was missed because of some reason stronger than what BDS had.

5.  askalice23:  I feel askalice is seems human.  He doesn't strike me as the type to intentionally miss the wolfing, and he argued against it in the thread.  Bird's also probably right about people thinking the game's imbalanced in favor of the enemy team, though I don't recall which quote in particular he's talking about. 

4.  Bird:  I feel that Bird is probably human due to his misunderstandings with the bombs, but we should keep an eye out for him as always.

3.  MaestroUGC:  After reading the progression of Maestro's suggestion for how we handle the day, I'm still not sure which side he's on.  He could be a wolf who's trying to guarantee that no wolves die today, but he could also be a human who came up with a plan I don't think is very good!  Blowing up an item which could be good or bad strikes me as a really conservative play, which is how he said he would have thought the wolves would act.  I feel neutral about whether the wolves would act conservatively, whether him acting in accordance with how he's publicly stated the wolves would act makes him more or less likely to be one, and also I don't know how the wolves would act.  He also has a history of missing a Night 1 wolfing on purpose.

2.  fank009:  Generally I think wolves are either less likely to accept players as human or they're just going to agree and wolf them the next Night phase.  I don't know which group you fall into.  If we're talking about missing the wolfing on purpose, one of the reasons to do that is to jump on the people who think it was an accident.  In that respect, you're suspicious.  I'm voting you and bombing blueflower instead of vice versa because I don't think the lynch is moving off BDS, unfortunately.  That's my fault.

1.  Blueflower:  I'm bombing you because a lot of other players seem human.  You're a big question mark.  I don't have a lot to work with, and I'm hard-pressed to justify blindsiding someone like Maestro or fank who have put in a lot of work this day phase.  If you want me to argue against you, I'll say that we shouldn't bomb and lynch the same players because that takes away kills dictated by humans and because I think Liggy would've posted if he wanted to intentionally miss the wolfing.  I don't feel too strongly about either point though.

[fank009]

:/ I really worked a number on the lot of you in that fools game didnt I???

Fank is being wolfish again, must be a wolf.

are we forgetting what happened then, what is happening now???

but enough trying to meta clear myself,

First off, I made a mistake suggesting that we throw a bomb at the player we're lynching.  That just skews things back into the favor of the wolves, numbers-wise.  It'd be smarter to throw the bombs at the two most suspicious players we're not lynching.

I'll start off by eliminating who I'm throwing my bomb at.  Obviously I'm not throwing it on myself, (that'd be pretty dumb since I'm a human and it means I could die) or Liggy (I can't because greg's throwing his bomb at Liggy).  That leaves me with 10 options.

10.  Nakah:  I outlined things in my suspicion list.  You're very likely a human in my eyes.  You had enough time to make the wolfing if you wanted to, probably not enough time to come up with reasoning sufficient to skip a wolfing, and asked for a reroll.

9.  FireArrow:  I'm sticking by my original assessment of him, which is that a wolf would be less likely to accuse NakahturneOfShadow based on NOS suspecting suicide to be the first mechanic.  A wolf wouldn't know that suicide wasn't the mechanic, methinks.

8.  Greg:  I doubt you'd offer to dive on the bomb as a wolf.  Additionally, I feel like you would've done something to demonstrate that you were active Night 1 if you skipped the wolfing on purpose.

7.  Thiannon:  I'm thinking Thiannon is likely a human because his behavior really doesn't fit what a wolf would do regarding the missed wolfing.  He was very active Night 1, but once the missed wolfing was announced, and then he argued that it would be silly to quibble about it for the rest of Day 1 (the irony is strong).  Additionally, his suggestion on how we handle the bombs today is one I'd expect least from a wolf who thought about the numbers.  His suggestion (which is the method we're going by, btw) gives the humans one extra kill should the game and means we start Day 2 and the rest of the days with an odd number of players alive.

6.  BDS:  I'm actually switching my opinion on BDS after doing some rereading!  Lately, I've noticed that BDS seems to get angry when he's a human.  This might just be because he could have different behavior on LLF (the one wolf game out of three was there) but he seemed pretty angry in that Super Smash Bros. Melee game and in the game where fank and davy were wolves.  Additionally, I'm thinking that if the wolfing was missed on purpose, it was missed because of some reason stronger than what BDS had.

5.  askalice23:  I feel askalice is seems human.  He doesn't strike me as the type to intentionally miss the wolfing, and he argued against it in the thread.  Bird's also probably right about people thinking the game's imbalanced in favor of the enemy team, though I don't recall which quote in particular he's talking about. 

4.  Bird:  I feel that Bird is probably human due to his misunderstandings with the bombs, but we should keep an eye out for him as always.

3.  MaestroUGC:  After reading the progression of Maestro's suggestion for how we handle the day, I'm still not sure which side he's on.  He could be a wolf who's trying to guarantee that no wolves die today, but he could also be a human who came up with a plan I don't think is very good!  Blowing up an item which could be good or bad strikes me as a really conservative play, which is how he said he would have thought the wolves would act.  I feel neutral about whether the wolves would act conservatively, whether him acting in accordance with how he's publicly stated the wolves would act makes him more or less likely to be one, and also I don't know how the wolves would act.  He also has a history of missing a Night 1 wolfing on purpose.

2.  fank009:  Generally I think wolves are either less likely to accept players as human or they're just going to agree and wolf them the next Night phase.  I don't know which group you fall into.  If we're talking about missing the wolfing on purpose, one of the reasons to do that is to jump on the people who think it was an accident.  In that respect, you're suspicious.  I'm voting you and bombing blueflower instead of vice versa because I don't think the lynch is moving off BDS, unfortunately.  That's my fault.

1.  Blueflower:  I'm bombing you because a lot of other players seem human.  You're a big question mark.  I don't have a lot to work with, and I'm hard-pressed to justify blindsiding someone like Maestro or fank who have put in a lot of work this day phase.  If you want me to argue against you, I'll say that we shouldn't bomb and lynch the same players because that takes away kills dictated by humans and because I think Liggy would've posted if he wanted to intentionally miss the wolfing.  I don't feel too strongly about either point though.

Just a few things that pique my interest

I want to know, WHY it skews the favour to the wolves numbers wise?
it never changes, wether we are lynching a wolf, and have bombs on 2 humans, or  lynching a human. and 2 humans have bombs... the situation doesnt (really) change, (unless BOTH wolves have the bombs...)

Going through your "list",
-I agree with your analysis on BDS, he does seem to have a tendancy to be angry when people dont believe him
-I find this point hilarious,
You have Askalice as 5th on the list, yet you vote me, the reasoning is (somewhat) valid, but, (like paraphrasing what I said to bird) Im not allowed to vote, for people who I deem suspicious who is 4/5/6 on your suspicion list (Because Im not a wolf (obviously))

Generally I think wolves are either less likely to accept players as human or they're just going to agree and wolf them the next Night phase.

Because having humans alive up your "sleeve" is a bad idea?
(again more meta clearing...)
Maestro, I am the only person, who believes that he is human... (dem tells)
I have a chat log I had with maestro at the beginning of the phase...

Spoiler

04:18:48: <fank009> LIGGY
04:18:55: <fank009> MAESTrO
04:18:58: <fank009> (curse the r)
04:19:01: <Maestro> That's me.
04:19:05: <Liggy> sorry heading off to bed
04:19:07: <Liggy> bye
04:19:11: <fank009> ciao
04:19:19: <Maestro> Leaving before I can get involved?
04:19:20: <fank009> talk about a convienient time...
04:19:23: <fank009> yeah
04:19:24: <Maestro> Clearly he's a wolf.
04:19:28: <fank009> he's scared of you
04:19:30: <fank009> nah
04:19:34: <fank009> its my presence...
04:19:34: <Maestro> They should be.
04:19:38: <fank009> I'm sure of it.
04:19:42: <fank009> xD
04:19:47: <fank009> anyway...
04:19:51: <fank009> that no wolfing...
04:19:54: <Maestro> Hold.
04:19:55: <fank009> even with the mechanic...
04:19:57: <fank009> imo...
04:19:59: <fank009> doesnt make sense
04:20:06: <Maestro> Hold on.
04:20:10: <fank009> k
04:20:15: <Maestro> Give me a moment to settle in for this.
04:20:19: <fank009> k
04:20:26: <fank009> I'll do some rereading,
04:20:39: <fank009> and give you my thoughts on what I think...)
04:21:39: <Maestro> Alrigh.
04:23:19: <fank009> opening thoughts,
04:23:54: <fank009> This game is one of those games of knowing too much, and not letting the idea slip...
04:25:09: <Maestro> Yes, but knowing soemthing means you have to adjust your play.
04:25:34: <Maestro> I believe our wolves will have to take extra steps to keep from seeming suspicious.
04:26:24: <fank009> ^wouldnt that be telling though???
04:26:31: <Maestro> It would.
04:26:35: <fank009> we look for people who are trying hard...
04:26:47: <Maestro> Which is why I believe the wolves will be playing conservatively.
04:27:04: <Maestro> Look at it like this:
04:27:26: <Maestro> They will have the benefit of knowing what will play out during the day phases.
04:27:41: <fank009> ^yep
04:27:46: <Maestro> But, unlike a typical game where everybody is more or less on the same page,
04:28:18: <Maestro> They can only do so much to put themselves in a better position for the day without tipping their hand
04:28:38: <Maestro> And likewise, the effects may not be something they can use to their advantage.
04:29:44: <Maestro> The human team always behaves like a hive mind, especially when the scenario is always changing.
04:30:16: <Maestro> And so the wolves have to either take control before things come to light (very risky in a game like this)
04:30:26: <Maestro> or hang back and fall in line.
04:30:53: <Maestro> Normally this isn't a problem for a skilled wolf.
04:31:34: <fank009> thoughts on birds list?
04:31:38: <Maestro> However, since they will know things before the humans, they have to either control the game to put themselves in winning situations.
04:32:09: <Maestro> Or just hang back and risk falling prey to their own traps.
04:32:23: <fank009> (ala fank xD)
04:32:36: <Maestro> Birds list is just stupid.
04:32:51: <fank009> your saying how that a skilled wolf would use things to their advantage...
04:32:55: <fank009> I am asking,
04:33:03: <fank009> there is advantage in no wolfing,
04:33:20: <fank009> But I see moar benefits in wolfing...
04:33:21: <Maestro> There's always advantage in no wolfing on Night 1.
04:33:46: <Maestro> For Day 1's mechanic, it's negligable.
04:34:46: <Maestro> They gave up the first wolfing, knowing that two other players would day today.
04:35:02: <fank009> ...
04:35:24: <fank009> would they be scared that wolfing x would give humans the tell that y is the wolf???
04:35:29: <fank009> (y being them)
04:35:32: <Maestro> Not really.
04:35:47: <fank009> it is somewhat neligable...
04:35:57: <Maestro> Contrary to popular belief, the first wolfing bears no importance on the game.
04:36:03: <fank009> ...
04:36:14: <Maestro> It's the second one that establishes the pattern.
04:36:14: <fank009> (goes to raise objections...)
04:36:46: <Maestro> The first wolfing is always contrary to the people behind it.
04:36:46: <fank009> I can name a good number...
04:37:15: <Maestro> People spend too much time focusing on what it means allowing the wolves to slip through.
04:37:23: <Maestro> Granted, there are exceptions.
04:37:42: <Maestro> But based on the last few games, this has been the trend.
04:38:36: <fank009> typically you go for null tells as a wolf...
04:38:49: <fank009> the fact they couldnt find a null tell...
04:38:52: <fank009> seems telling to me
04:39:04: <Maestro> Stop thinking like a human.
04:39:14: <fank009> ...
04:39:15: <fank009> :/
04:39:34: <fank009> considering my main thought of process is "think what wolves would do"
04:39:50: <Maestro> And how well has that served you?
04:39:55: <fank009> (maybe I still need a few moar games here )
04:40:24: <fank009> depends on the scenario...
04:40:40: <fank009> I over think things :/
04:40:44: <Maestro> Early game you need to think "strategy"
04:40:47: <fank009> BDS is a bad example xD
04:40:53: <Maestro> Late game you need to think "details"
04:41:28: <fank009> ok... so, again..
04:41:54: <fank009> Fanks (biased point)
04:42:51: <fank009> the no wolfing was made for the reason of "not giving tells", because wolves knew that two would die this day phase
04:43:20: <Maestro> No, I don't think that was it.
04:43:36: <fank009> you think there was more than that???
04:43:48: <Maestro> Not more, maybe, but different.
04:43:57: <fank009> I think I explained this before...
04:44:11: <fank009> Dying in the day to a bomb, is different than dying at night by wolves...
04:44:34: <fank009> especially if they are people who people are unsure about...
04:45:37: <Maestro> Waddle just confirmed that they don't know which bomb will kill a player.
04:46:08: <Maestro> So the only thing they knew last night was that there are two bombs, one kills, the other grants protection.
04:46:12: <fank009> ^
04:46:24: <fank009> they knew there were going to be 2 deaths
04:46:28: <fank009> (lynch/bomb)
04:46:30: <Maestro> Yes.
04:47:54: <fank009> Gregs idea of "holding onto the bombs" (actually (somewhat) suggested by me), wolves would be insane to hold onto them...
04:48:15: <Maestro> Yes.
04:48:20: <Maestro> However, think of it like this.
04:48:22: <fank009> so keep both bombs with those that have it?
04:48:45: <Maestro> By skipping the wolfing, they left greater odds that two humans would end up with them today.
04:49:05: <fank009> BDS pointed that out as well...
04:49:08: <fank009> (I think...
04:49:10: <fank009> someone did)
04:49:22: <Maestro> It's still a negligable benefit.
04:49:52: <fank009> some one must have fanks luck if they think 2/11 is bad...
04:50:02: <fank009> (actually its a bit more than that..
04:50:14: <fank009> 2/11 +2/11*2/10
04:50:41: <Maestro> Yes, which leads me to believe the wolves are playing an incredibly conservative game.
04:52:06: <fank009> so we look for conservative people...
04:52:42: <Maestro> Yes.
04:52:49: <Maestro> For now.
04:53:03: <Maestro> I anticipate their play style will change overnight.
04:53:29: <fank009> of course...
04:53:30: <Maestro> I have a plan to get around the bombs.
04:53:38: <fank009> spill
04:53:52: <Maestro> We split the votes between the two holders.
04:53:57: <Maestro> A KitB.
04:54:15: <fank009> priority of actions...
04:54:22: <fank009> wait
04:54:30: <fank009> so you wanna kill both of them???
04:54:41: <fank009> or is my idea of wolfsbane different to yours???
04:54:57: <Maestro> Here's what I'm thinking.
04:55:11: <Maestro> I need Waddle to confirm the order.
04:55:34: <fank009> play with luck...
04:55:40: <fank009> hope the one with the bomb is lynched
04:55:42: <fank009> that way,
04:55:46: <Maestro> But if the lynch occurs first, we may have a shot at taking out the player holding the exploding bomb
04:55:48: <fank009> only one death?
04:55:57: <Maestro> Thereby giving us only one death.
04:56:46: <fank009> thoughts on nocturne/nakah
04:56:56: <fank009> and them being "insta clear"
04:57:45: <Maestro> They're about as clear amud.
04:57:52: <Maestro> as mud*
04:58:00: <fank009> my thoughts.
04:58:22: <fank009> stupid Q...
04:58:30: <fank009> Why send lists to a person in private?
04:58:34: <Maestro> There are a variety of reasons as to why Nocturne dropped out.
04:58:39: <fank009> why not put them out publicly
04:58:49: <fank009> ^and should be considered as null
05:01:53: <Maestro> I think it's a trust thing.
05:02:06: <Maestro> Of course, it depends on the people and the list itself.
05:04:22: <fank009> Public: Everyone knows whats happening, no chance for wolves to manipulate the lists
05:04:37: <fank009> Private, a chance for manipulation, wolves MAY be kept in the dark
05:05:53: <Maestro> Yes.
05:06:13: <Maestro> But it's all a coin toss when it comes to who trusts whom.
05:06:33: <Maestro> People will share anything with people they deem "trustworthy"
05:06:33: <fank009> yeah
05:06:41: <fank009> xD
05:06:46: <fank009> good luck with that fank
05:07:54: <fank009> "If we throw the bombs at the wolfiest-looking players, like you suggested earlier, we're much more likely to lose this item, whatever it is." -greg
05:08:05: <fank009> Ok, so, As I spout out all the time,
05:08:13: <fank009> Since when do wolves want to appear wolfy???
05:08:36: <Maestro> Sometimes people just aren't good at not looking suspicious.
05:09:18: <Maestro> Yeah, a wolf will want to stay out of people's cross hairs, but sometimes they just can't.
05:10:35: <fank009> true...
05:11:56: <fank009> hmmm...
05:12:00: <fank009> your plan might work...
05:12:11: <fank009> it feels like multuple flips xD
05:12:35: <fank009> *coinflips
05:12:50: <Maestro> The same time, huh?
05:13:33: <Maestro> So we can either KitB and hope for the best, or hedge our bets and place them all on one of the holders.
05:13:58: <fank009> so in short,
05:14:02: <fank009> flip a coin...
05:14:22: <Maestro> Or pursue whoever looks more suspicious of the two.
05:14:28: <fank009> If I was to push...
05:14:36: <fank009> I would push on verm
05:14:46: <fank009> (verm and greg right?
05:15:07: <fank009> (too many things on my mind :/
05:15:08: <fank009> )
05:15:15: <Maestro> Yes.
05:22:19: <Maestro> Posted my plan.
05:22:25: <Maestro> Let's see how this goes.
05:22:42: <Maestro> It's a 5050 chance of working, but that's much better odds than anything else.
05:22:53: <Maestro> The only downside is we could risk losing the item.
05:26:55: <fank009> true...
05:27:26: <Maestro> All things considered, I'm not worried about the item.
05:27:49: <Maestro> I doubt it's something really useful.
05:28:04: <Maestro> Outside of normal game mechanics.
05:31:40: <fank009> like a seering or vig shot?
05:32:21: <Maestro> Probably.
05:32:30: <Maestro> But if we lose, we lose it.
05:32:39: <Maestro> It's not the end of the world.
05:39:37: <fank009> it would help...
05:39:41: <fank009> but otherwise...
05:42:57: <Maestro> Well I put it up for public debate.
05:45:01: <fank009> come to think about it...
05:45:05: <fank009> why dont we do that...
05:45:11: <fank009> with the two most scummiest people?
05:45:53: <Maestro> I don't think we'd get to a concensus fast enough for it to work out as planned.
05:57:14: <fank009> true...
05:58:21: <fank009> and askalice has said stuff thats warranted a vote...
05:58:47: <Maestro> I just told you about my plan.
06:00:40: <fank009> true...
06:00:49: <fank009> I want to send a message...
06:01:20: <Maestro> Yeah, well you're messages rarely hit their targets.
06:01:30: <Maestro> But you do have a better success rate than BDS.
06:01:57: <fank009>
06:02:14: <Maestro> That is to say, not by much.
06:02:28: <fank009> :/
06:04:08: <fank009> but yeah, atm... I have alice as a wolf lean,
06:04:10: <fank009> somewhat weak
06:04:18: <fank009> but it stood out like a sore thumb
06:04:21: <fank009> in english,
06:04:41: <fank009> it's "there must be another reason why it was planned..."
06:04:54: <fank009> Looks like (he/she?) was looking to push the blame elsewhere???
06:04:58: <Maestro> Askaslice was a player from long ago.
06:05:25: <Maestro> He hasn't realized we all player overly convoluted gambits now.
06:05:36: <Maestro> He will, though, soon enough.
06:05:43: <fank009> true...
06:07:33: <fank009> here...
06:07:46: <fank009> http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=5956.msg231814#msg231814
06:07:51: <fank009> knew there was something off...
06:10:14: <fank009> If he's read previous games, wouldnt he have seen some of said gambits...
06:10:16: <fank009> (oh wait
06:10:35: <Maestro> He just came back out of the blue.
06:10:43: <Maestro> I doubt he's done his research.
06:11:18: <Maestro> It's clear he's coming in assuming quality of play has done everything thing except improve from two years ago.
06:11:30: <fank009> ^
06:11:46: <fank009> (this is by far the strongest game in a long time...(
06:20:31: <Maestro> Alright.
06:20:36: <Maestro> Well I'm off then.
06:20:41: <fank009> ciao
06:20:45: <Maestro> Later.

[close]

If this doesnt explain his humanity, as well as the fact of no wolfing AND his plan...

Nice bomb on blueflower... I agreer... (will expand on this later)


I somewhat dont understand your plan of attack, I have a lot of arguments for/against your humanity, that I really am feeling a bit neutral on you.

Argument for humanity
-Partners, in terms of who you are attacking, comparing it to my leans, it is VERY unlikely, I can find a partner for you.
-Too many humans, Not enough lynches. Especially with the no wolfing (which would have allowed you a step closer... ((MORE META CLEARING!!!!))) you have more lynches needed to win
Arguments against humanity (general observations)
-What I feel is a flip flopping, trying to meld your opinion with public opinion
-Leaving enough "hmm, lets keep an eye on him" out there to be safe
-not wanting to do what greg was doing and hold onto the bomb. I love the save self policy (even though you havent provided an "ounce" of humanity (at that time...) (IMBO)

the arguments against, are rather null tells. and Im leaning more towards you being human, yet there are small things here and there as well...

In the chat if anyone wants to come in in 30 mins or so
-Will have one more post speaking to anyone and everyone and updating leans

[BlackDragonSlayer]

-I agree with your analysis on BDS, he does seem to have a tendancy to be angry when people dont believe him

I get angry when you people act silly.

[fank009]

ATM, Votes IF im correct... I might be missing something...
Fank = 2
BDS = 2
Blueflower =1
Bird =1
Liggy =1
Askalice =1

You wanna join the chat BDS???

[BlackDragonSlayer]

ATM, Votes IF im correct... I might be missing something...
Fank = 2
BDS = 2
Blueflower =1
Bird =1
Liggy =1
Askalice =1

You wanna join the chat BDS???

No; it's 4:10 AM here and the only reason I'm awake is because I have to write a research paper... and earlier, I was having some troubles with the chat.

[fank009]

Quotes
From bird

- Ordered suspicion lists are so worthless! I'd rather you just say the three players you're suspicious of than twelve players I can't make any sense of!

Says the person who makes an ordered list xD

READ THE THIRD PARAGRAPH. NOW.

BDS, STOP, REPEATING YOURSELF, It gets you in a bad bind and in a position that only hurts humans. (oh wait...)

Personally, I'm not sure of who I do want to bomb, but I just realized it shouldn't be Maestro.  Waddle:  Do the wolves know what the item in the good bomb is?  If so, we can learn a lot about Maestro's identity by finding out what's in the bomb.  If it helps the wolves, he's probably a human.  If it helps the humans it makes his plan more suspicious (because it increases the chance the item gets lynched away).

I just noticed this,
Verm... At 1st I didnt think you were reading the game,
Now I know.
You arent reading the game :/ (at 1st a null tell, you may just not be reading the game)

Waddle, do the wolves get any information extraneous to what you posted in the topic update? Like which bomb is the good one?

Maybe. Even if the wolves don't know which bomb is which, they could know the reward for choosing correctly (knowing it's worth the risk.) Do the wolves know what the benefits are for choosing the correct bomb Waddle?

(I am pretty sure there are more quotes...)

I dont know what benefit you have from "playing dumb" as a wolf. And, your partner should have allready told you the answer to the question... and considering the timing, and who you want to "chuck out", I really doubt there is anyone... (there is someone, though, that stands out like a sore thumb...) (psst, Fank's vote wasnt stupid???)

I find it VERY unlikely that you are a wolf verm, (with the exception of said person mentioned earlier)

It's actually beneficial for the item to be a killing power. That way we can lynch them if they don't do what we want.

With a seer power, they can just lie about the result, which is much more dangerous.

If its a vigi power, Its still an extra kill, (and someone who we wont "know" the allignment of...) and will just bring lylo (odds/evens) closer... (gamble from the wolves though... must know waddles style and what he would chuck in)

For some reason I find Liggy to be the most suspicious out of everyone. The fact that no wolfing was made night one and he wasn't around until just recently might have something to do with each other. Especially the fact that he's actually a really good player would suggest to me that he wouldn't miss the start of a game unless it was part of his wolfy plan.

This is more of a gut feeling than anything else though.

... :/ why do i feel that "no wolfing for inactivity" is in??? (what feels like all of a sudden?)

blueflower, you havent (imo) contributed anything original to the discussion, and finally take a tangent and go for a wolf vote in liggy.

Liggy HAS been showing 0-no interest in the game...
more logs from chat

Spoiler

22:23:18: <fank> Liggy...
22:23:20: <fank> you in?
22:23:27: <Liggy> ?
22:25:59: <fank> hi
22:26:05: <fank> thoughts on the game?
22:28:18: <Liggy> not really
22:28:24: <Liggy> haven't been as active as I'd like!
22:30:41: <fank> :/
22:37:32: <Liggy> I'm also sorry that playing TWG right now is not something I want to do
22:37:35: <Liggy> definitely later tonight
22:37:43: <Liggy> but at this very moment I just want to relax
22:38:14: <fank> you can do that liggy...
22:38:29: <Liggy> uh
22:38:31: <Liggy> ok

[close]

Somewhat of a comment, but seeing blueflower has been (equally?) as inactive, for me it seems wierd to make this comment...
It coming from someone like me with a different purpose, (clearing out garbage...)


Although, there is some telling, because at that time, BDS was the flavour of the day...  (maybe Im overthinking things as always )

But I just dont like it... seems too out of the blue, seems too like me xD


blueflower for now, yes the vote is for someone with a bomb, but, I feel there is no one else to vote for... and there is still that chance for killing two birds (or limiting one kill) with one stone.

Forcing the 3 way tie is scummy, but Im not letting myself get easily lynched like that... we all know what happened last time

Wait, where was this stated? I was under the impression Greg and verm each got to just pick a target.

Welcome to the school of cant read, population 2. (or is that 3? xD)


Nothing else really stands out at the moment. (its 1:30 in the morning :/)  I'll get some more analysis in the morning IF I get/am given the chance.

[fank009]

Somewhat of a comment, but seeing blueflower has been (equally?) as inactive, for me it seems wierd for him to make this comment...
coming from someone like me, (tooting my horn again :/) you get something with a different purpose, (i.e clearing out garbage...)

Edited this bit, to make it more clear and in english (and to avoid stupid lynches for this "accusation")

Im too tired :/

[Thiannon]

The bomb holder can throw the bomb to whoever. Like I said though, we'll know something's fishy immediately if they do without a reason.

Isn't Liggy saying that the bomb receiver could then pass the bomb on? Where did he see this? That hasn't been the case when I've played games with bombs. If he's right about this (Waddle, can you confirm/deny?), and it's not in the topic anywhere, I want to know why he made the assumption. It seems like a mistake a wolf might make (asking Waddle privately and then forgetting he asked privately).

I'm not convinced BDS is a wolf based on the logic people are espousing, and I think he's the kind of person who could start looking really human really fast. At the very least, he's liable to produce data for future analysis. fank (difficult to read under the S/A rule in that sometimes it seems like he's speaking another language) and Blueflower (has he even posted?) are better targets. fank's really straining to stay alive, though, and the last time he was a wolf he actually committed suicide, so I don't know what to think.

I'm leaving my vote on Maestro for now. verm makes a good point in that leaving him alive would allow us to make a more informed decision on him next day, but I think he's the wolfiest player alive right now.

Oh, one more thing re: Greg--Waddle said the bomb-holders may have information we don't. If that's the case, and that information is in some way valuable, it makes his suggestion that both he and verm hold the bombs look more suspicious again. What happens if he blows up and verm is a wolf? I suppose the odds of that are only 8%, but so are the odds that verm's a wolf and he blows up, which was the ideal outcome of Greg's plan. It still smacks of "looking human without helping the humans", but I'm not convinced, as Bird has argued (though he and Greg are a compatible pairing) that Greg would propose a plan that seems so ostensibly risky (even though it really wasn't).

Anyway, I'll be back tonight to complain about the outcome of D1 as always. Maybe.

[Waddle Bro]

You can throw the bomb if you're holding one.