TWG 60: 2fool4skool

[fank009]

All right; something I forgot to mention earlier is that I didn't agree with Fank's theory in the chat because it doesn't account for Mashi and TST, who are most certainly either fools or wolves. If they're fools, FSM can't be a fool, and if they're wolves, Greg can't be a wolf.

I really need to update my leans... How old are they??? 14 years? xD
Maestro flipping red (fool) changed it entirely...

I'll say this once, and once again... Mashi IS NOT a fool

because I don't want to die!!!

This should be evidence enough...


I still see a TST/Mashi team, but I'll need mashi to flip to determine it... (I still see TST as wolf/fool)

It's very interesting what the notion of FSM being a wolf has given... And I will get to the flip side of my argument (people who are wolfish due to the thought process of FSM being a wolf.) when I come back from a night out.

[fank009]

It's very interesting what the notion of FSM being a wolf has given... And I will get to the flip side of my argument (people who are wolfish due to the thought process of FSM being a wolf.) when I come back from a night out.

Or maybe not :/

Quick lean list, (which I'll add onto later)

Fool lean
TST

Wolf leans
BDS
Mashi
Verm- (this one will need explaining, made a mention of my case in a chat earlier, will try bring it up If I can)

Neutral leans
Davy
Greg
Waddle

Village lean
Olimar

Everyone who is a set lean, I do have a case for (3 wolf leans, that isnt right...) Neutral leans will need a reread, and wolf leans are taken somewhat lightly, but where I'll be lynching from


(Why am I not finding any time as of late :/)

[Greg]

Goddamnit you guys.

I guess I should have mentioned this earlier but Bubbles was the one who came up with the theory that I posted earlier in the phase. I still don't think that Mashi's actions are consistent if he's a fool at all.

[vermilionvermin]

I guess I'll post my leans too.

Wolf:
Davy:  Is the only other player who voted for Mashi on Day 1.  Will need to look this over though since he's my only wolf lean atm.

Fool:
Mashi:  Claimed fool.  The last person who did that got lynched, which makes it a gutsy claim as a wolf.  Additionally there's the fact that FSM seems like a wolf to me and I doubt that two wolves claimed fool.

TST:  Is acting like a fool, FSM got lynched for acting like a fool, and TST doesn't strike me as the type of player to go with such a gutsy strategy as a wolf.

Human:
BlackDragonSlayer:  The way he's acting is eerily similar to how he acted last game as a human.
fank:  It's hard to have so much inconsistency at the top of your suspicion list as a wolf.

Neutral:
Greg
Olimar
Waddle

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Fools' Tier:
Mashi/TST: Grouping them in as one; either they're fools trying to act like wolves, or wolves trying to act like fools; given that Mashi directly claimed fool, his "stumbler relation" with TST means the two are closely paired either way. The greatest way to find out which of the roles they are would to be as certain as possible that FSM was a wolf (or not one). Something I find odd about Mashi is that he said he didn't "want to die," which leads to my earlier statement about them (fools acting like wolves or vice-versa).
Oddly enough, I think we should lynch one of them, just in case they're wolves (so that only one of them is left). This resulted from hours of deep deep thinking.

Unsure/Might not be human:
Fank: At the risk of sounding like a broken record... fank is confusing as usual, which can mean either two things about him. It's pretty clear to me that he's not a fool (or if he is, is being a clever fool; though, you'd have to assume that Mashi/TST were wolves and not fools). Several of his assumptions and theories are a bit "misconstrued," I would say, but it will be interesting to see what he has to say about Verm before I make any more statements about his theories (as well as how everybody fits into the game, e.g. their roles).
Davy: Davy's posts about Bubbles were one of the thing that convinced me to vote for her, but given the cardflip, we know that Bubbles was a human (though, that alone doesn't mean much).
Greg: Fank's statements about Greg in the chat made absolutely no sense to me, because they completely ignore Mashi and TST, as well as other evidence... but I still think he's somebody to keep an eye on.

Might be Human:
Olimar12345: Hasn't done too much to indicate he's a human, but what other players have said/done in relation to him tells a lot about him.
Vermilionvermin: As fank said in the chat (one thing I agree on ), verm is somebody to keep an eye out for. Then again, at the end of Day 1, he did vote for FSM, when he easily could have kept a safety on Maestro. If there were three wolves, I'd say that he, Mashi, and TST were the wolves, but since there aren't, it seems less likely that he is.
Waddle Bro: One of the people who pushed/highly supported the FSM lynch; since we know FSM was a red, he's either a wolf or a fool, and if he's a wolf, Waddle isn't one.


So, if I had to make a graphical representation of my suspicion list:
1. FSM-Reapr: Wolf
2. MaestroUGC: Fool
3. vermilionvermin: Human
4. Waddle Bro: Human
5. The_Subjective_Thought: Fool
6. davy
7. The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Human
8. fank009
9. Mashi: Fool
10. Bubbles: Human
11. Olimar12345: Human
12. Greg
13. BlackDragonSlayer: Totally human

[Bird]

Greg Died.

HE Was Green.

Better UpDate Coming Soon.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Well, I won't be keeping an eye on Greg any longer!!

Updated role-guessing chart:
1. FSM-Reapr: Wolf
2. MaestroUGC: Fool
3. vermilionvermin: Human
4. Waddle Bro: Human
5. The_Subjective_Thought: Fool
6. davy
7. The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Human
8. fank009
9. Mashi: Fool
10. Bubbles: Human
11. Olimar12345: Human
12. Greg: Human
13. BlackDragonSlayer: Totally human


Fank, what do you have to say about Verm? It's important... to decide whether we should lynch Mashi/TST, you, or Verm...

[Greg]

welp so much for that

Good luck you guys!

[fank009]

Im so glad everyone's waiting for me to post my current plan of attacks :/ (doesnt help when you have little to no chance to post.)
this post will be a somewhat detailed (yet still lacking) post on all my medium-hard leans atm...

TST- (Fool)
Lets count what TST has done... sent a PM to FSM, Setup a fake letter from olimar, Fluffed generally about... Definetly Wolfish play, and in this type of game, and with TST, Im inclined to think fool. There is a possible partner in mashi, especially with how his claim to FSM, is in a similar style of mashi... (something mashi would create...) Due to the past nature of being a team... (and possible experience growth...) I still have my eye on this team.



Wolf leans
Mashi- Lets get this stragiht (AGAIN) TWICE, Mashi has had the chance to lynch himself, TWICE, He has not. (granted FSM did this as well, but I feel its along his OM as a fool... (regardless, someone is doing fancy play here)) In terms of going the whole fool persona routine??? It doesnt make sense, humans (barring fancy play) have no reason to claim, and (smart?) wolves wouldnt fall for an (obvious?) trap. so who is it for??? and what is mashi's intentions. I doubt you have a fool claim, because WHY would a fool claim fool??? (FSM again xD) but to you, signalling people out, why would the fool claim fool??? I would like to know who the fool claim is, If you dont mind telling, (If Im right it doesnt matter???) If there is a mashi/TST team, we are lynching mashi 1st, because a mashi lynch would tell more of the other than a TST lynch would.


Verm- In retrospect, it was is a weak lean, it stems from two facts, one, FSM is a FOOL! (seeing how bad the arguments are/were for people who may be partners with FSM (-1 person???), two, stems from this

FSM-Reapr

I'm very confident that FSM is not a human, and that's good enough to warrant a vote today.  Here's how I see it.  Claiming fool has little to no benefits as a human and a mountain of risk.  Not getting wolfed is nice, but it's really minor when the risk is that you get yourself lynched.  As a wolf, you risk being lynched, sure, but if you think it's more likely that humans will avoid lynching you, well, you've got yourself set.  As a fool, I don't know why FSM would try such a gambit because it's really, really easy to win as a fool.

As mentioned before, looks like more of a toss-aside (in my opinion) and it feels like getting rid of trash (granted, I like getting rid of trash) Verm has played the norm, and if anything he is unreadable minus this statement, he does have some human points, in a chat discussion we had the other day, if anyone wants the quote I'll give it. but other than that, He is playing somewhat like when he was a special in the last meph game... (thing is, there are no specials here...) And I really expected to see more of him if he was human.

BDS: This case again, leads on FSM being a fool. Somewhat in the same principle as the verm case, but this one has one significant distance...
Before FSM's Lynch....

Right now, I'm guessing that Mashi, TST, and FSM are the fools, or Mashi and TST are the wolves, and FSM is a fool...?

Another thing I should mention:
I think it's very likely that FSM claimed fool (whether or not he actually is, although I think it's likely at this point) in order to get the other two fools to claim to him, which is what I assumed happened.

After FSM's Lynch

Though, if FSM isn't a fool (and Mashi/TST are), who would the other fool be?

How would all three fools knowing each other allow them to die?

(not a BDS quote, but still significant)
After Maestro was wolfed

1: I didn't say FSM was a fool, especially after Maestro was wolfed.

And Im too tired to quote all of page 10.

As stated in my counter argument to FSM NOT being a wolf, wolves would want people to believe that FSM is a wolf, ESPECIALLY after the maestro lynch. BDS fits this to a tee. being staunch in one opinion and quickly, yet silently jumping ship. yet his own BDS'ness turns the tide of the topic VERY quickly.

In english;
-Plays according to the flips, (giving humans a sense of security with two reds being out?)
-leads people away from the argument at hand/creates wild ideas... (*raises hand* guilty as charged)
-shows a constant stubborness... (any counter I try to make is met with a "IT DOESNT MAKE SENSE" (ok, so not that loud :/))

I do have a chat log with BDS...

also, the lean on olimar... is explained in this chat log (only one Im going to look up for tonight, (I left it too late and Im tired :/)

Spoiler

00:55:03: <fank009> Olimar, I have a Q
00:55:09: <Olimar12345> yes
00:55:16: <fank009> have you done fancy play this game?
00:55:44: <Olimar12345> what is fancy play?
00:55:58: <fank009> something that isnt the norm for your role...
00:56:47: <Olimar12345> are you talking about TST's lame pm?
00:57:06: <Olimar12345> lol he even edited it later on in the thread
00:57:16: <fank009> so, you never sent it???
00:57:29: <Olimar12345> like he had more to add to add to it
00:58:15: <Olimar12345> "oh, this'll sound great!"
00:58:21: <Olimar12345> sry lag
00:58:28: <Olimar12345> no i didnt send it
00:59:04: <Olimar12345> man, was i pissed off wheni saw the first one
00:59:39: <fank009> hmmm....
00:59:43: <fank009> you know...
01:00:26: <Olimar12345> davy and i were literally chatting about how i thought TSTs pm to fsm was retarded the nught before he posted that
01:00:28: <fank009> that might be the piece of info I need... to solve this game
01:00:39: <fank009> (at least catalyst it in the right direction)
01:01:10: <Olimar12345> what, the pm?
01:01:11: <fank009> It looked genuine foolish...
01:01:41: <fank009> well, your take on it.
01:02:04: <Olimar12345> my reaction looked foolish?
01:02:11: <Olimar12345> xD thanks...
01:02:23: <fank009> TST's PM to FSM looked foolish
01:02:23: <Olimar12345> tyhe pm?
01:02:28: <fank009> no..
01:02:29: <fank009> you are not Fool
01:02:32: <fank009> not now anyway

[close]

(In short... good work TST, you fooled fank.)

Moar thoughts in the morning(?)

[Mashi]

People who are suspicious of me of being a Wolf are being rather frivolous.  At this point, it should be evident that I'm not a Fool.  And it can easily be concluded that I'm not a Wolf either.  The most logical conclusion that can be determined is that I'm a Human up to my antics.

I claimed Fool to the thread hoping to have the Fools claim to me (and possibly even a Wolf if we were lucky!).  The only one who claimed to me, unfortunately, was The_Subjective_Thought, who was rather evidently a Fool.  Here are the PMs exchanged:

Who claimed fool to you?

yes because i would definitely tell you

Well since I'm the actual third fool I want to know who's pretending to be me.

It's a personal issue.

Because I was waiting for you to make a formal claim, duh!!!

Still waiting for the Wolf to claim so that we can do stuff.

Okay, I admit I walked into that one.

[Olimar12345]

Sorry if I'm missing something here, but now why does everyone have to claim to you, mashi? It seems that in the few games I've played you've ended up being a wolf. xD

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS: This case again, leads on FSM being a fool. Somewhat in the same principle as the verm case, but this one has one significant distance...

As stated in my counter argument to FSM NOT being a wolf, wolves would want people to believe that FSM is a wolf, ESPECIALLY after the maestro lynch. BDS fits this to a tee. being staunch in one opinion and quickly, yet silently jumping ship. yet his own BDS'ness turns the tide of the topic VERY quickly.

In english;
-Plays according to the flips, (giving humans a sense of security with two reds being out?)
-leads people away from the argument at hand/creates wild ideas... (*raises hand* guilty as charged)
-shows a constant stubborness... (any counter I try to make is met with a "IT DOESNT MAKE SENSE" (ok, so not that loud :/))

So, to sum up your accusation:
1: I might be a wolf because I use logic to form the most logical conclusion, instead of sticking to a false conclusion just because it was my first conclusion. I don't see how updating my thoughts based on current information is a bad thing...
2: I might be a wolf because I see that your "counters" are often filled with gaps of logic, ignoring important evidence, such as a few things I mentioned earlier (e.g. how Mashi/TST are either wolves together or fools together, but most likely not a mix of the two; that wouldn't explain their shared actions about the "stumbler" earlier in the game).

[Mashi]

Olimar12345, I claimed Fool so that the Fools and Wolf would claim to me.  The_Subjective_Thought was the only person to claim, and he claimed Fool.

This is a bit worrying to me, because I would imagine that at least both Fools would have claimed to me by now.  Since I've only received one Fool claim, I'm ruminated the possibility that there's only one Fool and two Wolves in the game.  I'm thinking that it may also be possible for FSM-Reapr to have been a Fool trying to screw with the Human Team, but I'm not entirely sure.

[Bird]

1. FSM-Reapr
2. MaestroUGC
3. vermilionvermin
4. Waddle Bro
5. The_Subjective_Thought
6. davy
7. The Boy Who Cried Wolf
8. fank009
9. Mashi
10. Bubbles
11. Olimar12345
12. Greg
13. BlackDragonSlayer

-------------------------------------------------------------

Greg has died. It is still Day 3. Day 3 ends tomorrow, October 17th, at 10:00 PM CDT. Three reds and five greens remain.

Sorry about the delay everyone!

[fank009]

So, to sum up your accusation:
1: I might be a wolf because I use logic to form the most logical conclusion, instead of sticking to a false conclusion just because it was my first conclusion. I don't see how updating my thoughts based on current information is a bad thing...
2: I might be a wolf because I see that your "counters" are often filled with gaps of logic, ignoring important evidence, such as a few things I mentioned earlier (e.g. how Mashi/TST are either wolves together or fools together, but most likely not a mix of the two; that wouldn't explain their shared actions about the "stumbler" earlier in the game).

(Im pretty sure you used this argument against me before...)
just a few things,
one- Wolves cant use "simliar" leaps in logic?
two- yes, my logic is patchy (at times), but its attitude, I feel your taking this very stubbornly, in the sense that I have little to no case (somewhat of a fact), and attitude is another basis for the case (which you seem to fail to understand)


Oh and Mashi, thank you for being a Pal and revealing your true Colour's,  (although, something still irks me about that lean...) seeing TST claimed... sort of gives more height to the lean... BUT... who are the fools/(fool?) if the scumteam is TST/Mashi...


of all the options, a mashi lynch is still the most telling in my opinion
(people really need to let me on my laptop so I can read the game and respond what not :/)