TWG LIX: SUPER SMASH BROS. MELEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[TWG Kirby]

To me, Falcon's behavior doesn't match up with what I'd expect from a wolf who would willingly skip a wolfing (which is the most likely explanation at this point). It seems that you and I are approaching this situation with two completely different mindsets!
The only player I could see matching with the accidental no-wolfing would be TWG Link, and that's only because, in his own words, he's had a bad internet connection! Even then, I doubt his partner would be so negligent as to miss a wolfing, given the time it takes to send a PM!

You say that I am, "trying to interpret the evidence in any way (I) can that goes against (you)," but I think all you're doing is trying to frame inactives in order to stall us!

[TWG Ness]

Luigi, you seem to be basing most of your suspicions on whether the player logged in or not. Since we don't know the alternate accounts, we don't know if the person was actually active or not. You don't need to log into your TWG account just to read the thread and make judgements

I brought this up in the chat (you weren't there) but I can't even tell if you think the night 1 outcome was accidental anymore. You seem like youre flip flipping back and forth between the two. Your main point against Falcon is that you could see him intentionally missing the wolfing, but later on you say DK is human for the same reason

[TWG Luigi]

We don't know the alternate accounts, but if the player never logged into their account on Night 1 or was super inactive like Mario or Fox during the majority of Day 1, it's likely they weren't paying attention to the game.

I can't tell if the missed Night 1 wolfing was accidental, and am accounting for both possibilities in my suspicion list.  I say DK is human because, while he would be the type of person to intentionally miss a wolfing, his behavior after the fact suggests that he is not a wolf.

[TWG Kirby]

I think I might've stated this before, but I can see you as a wolf who thought the plan of missing a wolfing would throw the humans off track, then after it only had lackluster results, trying to salvage what's left by killing off as many inactives as you can get away with before "better" lynching targets develop.

[TWG Luigi]

To me, Falcon's behavior doesn't match up with what I'd expect from a wolf who would willingly skip a wolfing (which is the most likely explanation at this point). It seems that you and I are approaching this situation with two completely different mindsets!

I know we've gone round and round about this, but I just don't see how you reach this conclusion at all.  If you're going to miss the wolfing on purpose with the plan to vote inactives, you're going to demonstrate that you aren't one of the inactives.  Night 1 spam is one way to do that.  Staying silent for the majority of the night is not.  Yes, you can construe the evidence to point to me as a wolf if you want to say that I'd predict that the humans would all agree that the missed wolfing was intentional and thus stayed super quiet on purpose.  If I really thought that though, I wouldn't argue the opposite, and arguing that this goes in Falcon's favor is just construing the evidence.

Let's be fair, though, and evaluate your defense of Falcon.  It (at least in my understanding) is based on the fact that Falcon, at one point in the day phase, argued that Bowser was a wolf and defended Ness, which means that Falcon wasn't planning on missing the wolfing and then taking advantage of that fact.  My understanding of the quotation Kirby's talking about is "Obviously, Ness and any other inactives are hella sketchy, but the way Bowser is relentlessly attacking everyone is a bit off-putting." In the same breath, he talks about how inactives are suspicious!

If I wanted to better my position as a wolf, I could have just shut up about the missed wolfing being accidental since I was probably one of the last people who would have been suspected to intentionally miss the wolfing.  Again, you could try to construe this against me by saying that I thought I'd look more human by arguing against the theory that leads to me being human.  But that's an unnecessary risk.  Sure, I might come off as more human.  But there's also the chance I come off as less human.  When the status quo already makes me look human, there's no reason for wolf-me to take that risk. 

And finally, everyone in this game falls into one or more of four groups that make them really unlikely wolf partners for me:

Group 1:  I voted for them/argued strongly for them being a wolf:  (TWG Mario, TWG Yoshi, TWG Kirby, TWG Falcon)
Group 2:  Voted for me/suspects me now:  (TWG Link, TWG Kirby, TWG Pikachu, TWG DK, TWG Falcon)
Group 3:  Could have saved me from a KiTB but didn't:  (TWG Yoshi, TWG Link, TWG Kirby, TWG Samus*, TWG Fox, TWG DK)
Group 4:  Is Ness and there's no way I intentionally skip the wolfing if my partner's the only player in the game who didn't post Night 1 (TWG Ness)

*I doubt Samus would self-vote if I were her partner and was currently tied for the lead in votes when there were other justifiable votes.  Admittedly, Samus is probably the weakest point in my defense.

I think that's a lot more solid of a defense than the one you have for Falcon.

The only player I could see matching with the accidental no-wolfing would be TWG Link, and that's only because, in his own words, he's had a bad internet connection! Even then, I doubt his partner would be so negligent as to miss a wolfing, given the time it takes to send a PM!

Link posted like 30 minutes before the Night 1 ended.  I doubt his internet was an issue.

[TWG Kirby]

If you're going to miss the wolfing on purpose with the plan to vote inactives, you're going to demonstrate that you aren't one of the inactives.  Night 1 spam is one way to do that.

The thing is, there's a little thing in your profile that says "Last Active," which can be, well, used to show WHEN YOU WERE LAST ACTIVE. Night 1 spam (at least to a certain degree) is something that is often seen as something normal, but, as I HAVE mentioned before, usually doesn't or shouldn't continue on any longer than that; later night phases might be more quiet.
Spamming is quite frivolous to do as a wolf with a genius plan (I am complimenting the wolves on the idea), when you can either:
1: Post once or twice through the night just to show you're active.
2: Post a few times contributively to show you're active.
3: Not post at all, but during the day phase express that you were in fact active and read the thread.

Again, you could try to construe this against me by saying that I thought I'd look more human by arguing against the theory that leads to me being human.  But that's an unnecessary risk.  Sure, I might come off as more human.  But there's also the chance I come off as less human.  When the status quo already makes me look human, there's no reason for wolf-me to take that risk.

The chance that you'd come off as less human is a lot less likely.

Also, your little groups mean nothing. See this quote:

You are acting like what you've done, and are doing now, completely clears you!

Of course you'd be trying to suspect/be suspected (or should I put those words in quotes?) by your partner to decrease overall suspicion on both of you! If anything, the only group that is clear, and even then not with really strong evidence, is the group that could've saved you from a KitB.

Link posted like 30 minutes before the Night 1 ended.  I doubt his internet was an issue.

Having had trouble with internet in the past, may I point out that having trouble with internet often entails sudden disconnection to the internet?
Then again, you do have a point. If Link wasn't having enough trouble with his internet to justify not sending a PM, that means that if he were a wolf, he'd have no reason to accidentally miss the wolfing, WHICH MEANS THAT THERE'S NOTHING TO SUPPORT THE ACCIDENTAL NO WOLFING.

[TWG Luigi]

I should be asleep now and I'll address the rest later, but one important thing I want to ask now.

Say you're exactly right.  I masterminded this brilliant plan where I would wolf nobody on purpose, and I rely on people checking the Last Online tab to see that I was, in fact, able to make the wolfing but chose not to post.  This is brilliant evidence because, predicting that the people will decide that the missed wolfing was intentional, they'll assume I would've posted more to demonstrate activity.  This evidence makes a very strong case for my humanity.  Why do I destroy that evidence less than 40 minutes into Day 1 by logging in and posting before anyone checks it?

[Waddle Bro]

The wolves can't send in a wolfing PM on their normal accounts.

[Waddle Bro]

Also, I will replace you if you won't put any effort in this phase.

[TWG Yoshi]

Luigi, you spent all of Day 1 trying to argue that the missed wolfing was an accident, and kept trying to steer us towards looking at the inactives. You spent so much time and energy on that one point, that is was very hard to try and discuss anything else with you. When talking with you it was as if you wanted me to see it your way and agree with you before discussing anything else.

You were probably the only player all last phase who insisted it was an accident, in spite of it being practically impossible. I think after a certain point, you were so commited to that argument that you couldn't just change it on a whim. Even now the only concession you made is "It's possible, but I still think it was an accident."

[TWG Luigi]

I'll only respond additionally to the part about the groups because it's the only part I think I can convince a human of if they're not already convinced.  The groups are especially significant because while the people in them are not impossible as wolf partners, it'd be unprecedented if the majority of them were my partner. 

Take, for example, Link.  Nobody lets their wolf partner go into a KiTB if they have the choice and then argues against them when they survive it.  It wouldn't be shocking if he was a wolf and I was a human and he did that.

Or Kirby.  Nobody leads a charge of this scale against their wolf partner when they're salvageable.

Or Pikachu.  Nobody uses their only post of the day to make their wolf partner the day's leader in votes.

Or Fox.  Nobody let their wolf partner go into a KiTB if they could stop it.

Or DK.  See above, but he also placed the first vote on me.

Or Falcon.  Nobody suspected him before.  I've devoted multiple posts to arguing why he should be lynched at the very least ahead of me, and he's probably going to sheep Kirby's charge.

Or Ness.  Because, as I forgot before, he self-safetied when I was the leader in votes, later than Samus' vote and after Pikachu put me in the lead.  And he and I being wolves makes no sense if you support the theory that the missed wolfing was intentional given his inactivity.

I think it says a lot when only two players (Yoshi and Samus) are within the realm of reasonable possibility as wolf partners for me.  I tried to lynch Yoshi at one point yesterday and Kirby put him at the bottom of his suspicion list anyways.  The other (Samus) is seventh on Kirby's suspicion list, and your reasoning for putting her low on your suspicion list (it'd be careless for her to self-vote when there's no vote leader) doubles if I'm her wolf partner and I already have a vote on me.

Try as you might, you'll never come up with a defense half as strong as that for any other player in the game.  Actually, maybe you could for Samus.  I don't know, I was doing it off-hand when I did my suspicion list.

[TWG Samus]

I don't exactly agree with Kirby. Just because he insists that it was an accident doesn't necessarily mean he's a wolf. My initial reaction was that it was an accident as well, even though the current evidence seems to suggest otherwise.

To be honest, I didn't even realize that I was going to be in a KitB last day phase. I guess it was lucky on my part that I survived. There's no way that a wolf would take that chance though, even though this is just me sticking up for myself. 

[TWG Kirby]

Or DK.  See above, but he also placed the first vote on me.

The fact that he changed his vote from you, and for what I consider to be such little reasoning, might not clear him, but there still is the fact that he didn't vote for Mario like you did (but that could've been used so that suspicion wouldn't be placed on both of you, although there's still the risk of you being lynched because of the KitB).

Also, I've considered the possibility that Falcon might be your partner, but you don't expect anybody to believe you with suspicion being directed toward you! If people think you're a wolf, then Falcon can't be, and vice-versa! And he was the only other person to vote for Mario, which would explain why nobody else tried to save you from a KitB.
I'm not saying this makes 100% sense, but it makes a lot more sense that what you've been saying (and excuse me if I don't just make the assumption that the wolves are always silly inactives, though I apologize if they are )!

I don't exactly agree with Kirby. Just because he insists that it was an accident doesn't necessarily mean he's a wolf. My initial reaction was that it was an accident as well, even though the current evidence seems to suggest otherwise.

It's not just that he's insisting that it was an accident, but that he's basing all or mostly all his suspicions off of that assumption (even after other proof suggests otherwise, as you pointed out), which, as a wolf could be used to distract the humans.

That being said:
TWG Luigi

[TWG Luigi]

I think it's fair to make a day 1 vote based the wolves being inactive.  I have a better suspicion now, so I'll go with what I have now.  That's how it works.  The wolves in the current game had more of an opportunity to wolf than the ones in this game.  (They're Locke (Faux), Saint Swooper, and Jub3r7.)  I don't think it's unreasonable to think that it's possible that the missed wolfing in this game was also an accident given:
A:  Odds are they don't have as much experience as those three.
B:  There's only two wolves instead of three.
C:  People were switching back and forth between their TWG accounts and their real accounts and might not have realized when they needed to wolf.

Are there strong arguments for the missed wolfing this game being intentional?  Sure.  In this game, it was numerically strategic to not wolf (an argument I was the first to make, by the way).

I don't know why you think I wouldn't be able to get out of this lynch as a wolf.  All that's against me is that I supported an opinion that people disagreed with and voted based on that opinion.  My defense is that me being wolves with every other player currently alive doesn't make sense. 

Yes, you can poke little holes in it by saying that it's possible that DK is my wolf partner despite the fact that he voted for me first and didn't save me from a KitB when he had the chance.  Or by saying that I might have taken a gigantic risk by building what I think is a pretty solid case against my wolf partner Falcon and then calling him out for sheeping your case against me.  Pick any two players randomly on the list, and odds are you can't build as good a defense for them not being wolf partners as I've built up with any single player on the list.

[TWG Luigi]

http://us11.chatzy.com/89650852959951.  This is the chat link.  We're not starting for two hours and 15 minutes though.