TWG LVIII - The Boy's Forest of Tears

[Toby]

After checking my inbox, I think I managed to attend to most things.

The phase wouldn't have been this long if the world had better wifi.

Phase ends today at 8pm GMT+1

If anyone needs it to be extended to monday I'll do so at the first request since I wasn't able to attend to people's needs during the past few days.

[Bird]

nobody request a longer phase pls

[Dude]

phase extension plz

you never replied to my question boy!!!

[Bird]

*sigh*

[Dude]

actually nvm i'm good.

[Toby]

Phase will end tomorrow 5pm GMT+1.

I apologize greatly for the inconvenience.

[Liggy]

I just realized NSM still allows death post, and there's no limit to how long I can wait before using it!

So I'd like to say this:

Worst host.

[Bird]

Alright, this is getting ridiculous.

[Toby]

The Boy's Forest of Tears

What you can do with the little red boxes:

You can give your box to anyone you want, but not yourself.  If you deposit any box you collected into the tree stump you may choose one of the following:
   -An amount of Four Boxes allow the user to use a Guard
   -An amount of Five Boxes allow a player to use a Kill
   -An amount of Three Boxes allow a player to use an Seer
   -An amount of One Box allows a player to use a Bodyguard
   -An amount of Two Boxes allows a player to use a role block

I won't be happy with anyone who steals leftover boxes.

Chit Chat, anyone?


01. Mashi - Box Keeper Number 5
02. Thiannon
03. Bird
04. BlackDragonSlayer - Brown Wolf
05. Bubbles - Third Party Serial Killer
06. Mariolegofan - Mason
07. SlowPokemon
08. MaestroUGC - Human
09. Dude
10. Liggy
11. Fank009 - Guardian
12. TheZeldaPianist275
13. K-NiGhT
14. FireArrow
15. Mr. Tanooki Suit
16. Contranegative
17. Mr. E
18. Vermilionvermin

We must wait...
We must wait...

Can we not wait?...
Can we not wait?...

The waiting is finally over...
The waiting is finally over...

Bubbles has been killed

Bubbles was a Third Party Serial Killer. Each Night she got a box to send to someone of her choice, the choice of either a roleblock or a seer and a kill every night. I loved this kid, this was my little monster.

Cock, a doodle, do. It is now Day 5. Day 5 ends Wednesday 8pm GMT+1.

Sorry for the wait. How about we play a little game to just show how sorry I am? I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, would you like to guess what it is? The person who guesses correct wins a prize. Will you really want to win a prize though?

[Bird]

I'm going to suppose that Liggy and Thiannon are both dead. I'd also suggest that we insta somebody to make this phase go faster, but I doubt it would. And an insta is probably something we should avoid at this point in the game. There's one or two wolves remaining, leaving us very open to a wolfrush if anybody makes a single vote.

Speaking of there only being two wolves left, this means we lynched one at some point. Incredible, I know. I think its much more likely to be Contranegative than TZP/k-NiGhT/Tanooki, but I suppose anything's possible. If we do follow that assumption, it means that we lynched a box keeper wolf and Mr. E and Fire Arrow, two other box keepers, should get a pass this phase.

Despite being completely and hilariously wrong about Bubbles, I still think we should go for Dude this phase. It's between him, SlowPokemon and verm, and Slow has literally done nothing the entire game. If there's just one wolf left in the game, it's not him, since he probably wouldn't have been active enough to make the wolfings anyway. Verm has been pretty helpful and made a pretty great defense when the heat was on last day phase. Which leaves Dude. Dude is a better choice than SlowPokemon for two reasons:
     1. People began to bandwagon SlowPokemon, and the lynch gained a lot of support. I don't know if that would happen to a wolf.
     2. Dude said he had to ask the host a question, which seems like an odd thing to do if he were a plain old human. Verm also pointed this out.

What do you all think?

[Dude]

Slow is the last wolf. I guarantee it.

[vermilionvermin]

Here are my thoughts:

I'm a bit skeptical of Dude and Contranegative being wolves together.  Yeah, it arguably makes sense if you look at Day 3 (the one where K-Night got lynched) when Dude voted for Bubbles.  It doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you look at Day 4, when it looked like I was the likely lynch target for the day.  At that point, Mr. E had voted for me.  Bird said that I was his pick for lynching that day.  If Dude's a wolf with Contranegative, I don't understand why he's the first not-me person to vote for Contranegative when it would have been so much easier to vote for me.

You know who I think would make an amazing partner for Contra?  Mr. E.  I don't know what his defense is, but I think that since we're getting pretty late in the game I shouldn't just let his weird behavior slide.  Before explaining why I think Mr. E would make a great wolf partner for Contra, I need to explain some game theory I came up with when I was a wolf last game.  Some might argue that, as a new player, Mr. E might not yet be susceptible to it.  I don't know.

Introducing the sliding cap wolf partner system (snappy Fiver nickname pending)

Ironically enough, Mr. E was my wolf partner when I first realized this and I used a modified version of it for him.  Say a wolf partner's generally suspicious.  If that player gets lynched and you defend them, well, you're putting yourself in danger too.  That makes it a bad idea to defend the wolf partner.  Instead, you put them high on your suspicion list and vote for a human instead.  That works out great until either that human's lynched or people decide the person you put at the top of your suspicion list looks pretty human.  At that point, you put another player at the top of your suspicion list.  Rinse and repeat as necessary.

I feel like Mr. E, knowingly or not, used a similar system when voting yesterday.  I was the first person to vote for most humans who wanted to follow Bird/wolves who didn't want Contranegative lynched.  Since Contranegative was the next person on the suspicion list anyways, he gets put on Mr. E's suggestion for being vigi'd, though Mr. E states that he thinks we should look into other possibilities.  At the point in the day where Mr. E changes his vote, I'd been talking to him in the chat.  I honestly don't remember if Bird decided that Contra should be lynched at that point or if Mr. E knew that Contra was supposed to be the lynch.  Either way, I'd been pitching my argument for quite some time, and apparently got him to vote for Bubbles, then Slow.  Slow also turned out to be the person Contra argued to lynch.  Somehow, Contra slipped from second-priority to fourth when I'd made my defense (part of which was that Contranegative was more responsible for the K-Night lynch I was being crucified for).

tl;dr:  A wolf partner should never end up as higher than second on your suspicion list and the best way to avoid this is to elevate other people rather than defending said wolf partner.  Mr. E did this with Contranegative yesterday.

I think he was also the person that was supposed to clear Contranegative but I'm not sure about that one.  Did either of them use their boxes for anything other than proving each other?  He said he was no longer in possession of a box but I'm not sure what he meant by that.

[vermilionvermin]

A few loose ends I forgot in the last post:

-Can we vigi someone with boxes this phase?  I asked Toby whether or not my bodyguard power could save people from death from burning and his  response was pretty specific about it only working during the night.  This makes me think Bird and me might die today (I'd die because my power only prevents night deaths).  That would mean that theoretically this could be our last day phase.  If burning doesn't kill today it's still a good idea because I'd rather go into the night with four people than five, which would make tomorrow our last day.

-I'd like Dude to tell us what he was asking the host.

-Mr. E just seemed to be on the same page as Contra (like Liggy being definitely a wolf and both their votes ending up on Slow)

[vermilionvermin]

Something else I just realized!

-I think that it's possible that Liggy was a wolf.  He referred to himself as a Loner, but Bubbles flipped as a THIRD PARTY serial killer.  "Third party" and "loner" are synonymous if you're a person who isn't sided with the humans or wolves but doesn't have any partners.  I'm pretty sure Bubbles didn't have any partners, and I think Toby would probably have told Liggy he was a third party player as well if that's what he was.

[Bird]

I agree that Bubbles flipping third-party loner makes Liggy seem much more likely to be a wolf!

Using boxes to kill people is pretty much out of the question now. I have yet to figure out how the mechanics work, but here's what happened with me and boxes last phase:

FireArrow had 5 boxes a few phases ago, but apparently they all vanish if you don't use them that phase. Now it's last night phase. I randomly received a box from some random person. I decide to use this box to bodyguard FireArrow. Later on I receive another box from another random person. Once again, I have no idea who these boxes came from. I tried to use that box to bodyguard Bubbles. But apparently you can only use boxes for one power, and the rest all vanish. So I decided to send this box to vermilionvermin, but apparently I couldn't send it away either. When it came down to seering or bodyguarding somebody, I decided bodyguarding was more important (since I was also being bodyguarded, and since seering results couldn't be relied upon).

It worked out for the best though, since Bubbles wasn't worth saving.

Anyway, let me hit you all with some knowledge:

If burn victims die today and verm and I are both human, the wolves win assuming there are two wolves remaining.
Alternatively, if SlowPokemon is human, the wolves can win at any point assuming there are two wolves remaining.

Ultimately, I gotta conclude that Liggy was probably a wolf. I think there's a case to be made for Mr. E being the final wolf. I'll go back and look through his posts before I respond to that idea.