TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[FSM-Reapr]

Here just to read my PMs and here's one from Bird.

War is brewing! On night 5, war will break out and damage will double.

[Thiannon]

I never said FSM was human or wolf, in fact if you read my posts I said I was suspicious of him. I just don't think you should blame someone's personal life on them being a wolf. I can't believe I have to explain myself here

Well, I still don't understand what you mean, so apologies for leaving you so flabbergasted. To be honest, now this just looks like obfuscation bent on shielding a wolf partner. You've shown before that you're not above leveraging emotion in a TWG with your "you can't lynch me I quit" attitude in the previous game. I'm still not voting because I don't want a wolfrush, though.

[Zunawe]

@ davy's post

I didn't really attack Olimar, and I don't believe that I ever voted for him. I was pointing out that he really didn't have a valid reason to lie to the thread and that I'd like to wait for his explanation.

As for the suspicion list, at the time, BDS hadn't posted much at all, but I didn't remember his posts being selective while Yugi's seemed irrelevant in big discussions and simple in small decisions. For Mashi, fourth doesn't seem entirely safe. Really, I was equally suspicious of Yugi and FSM which would move him up to third. But still, I found him slightly suspicious, but never talked to him in the entire game. I would have, but he was lynched the day I actually found him active in the chat.

On the confusing vote, I had already stated why I was suspicious of FSM quite recently, and he was at the top of my list, so I didn't feel the need to explain it all over again. Instead I agreed with a post by Mashi concerning Liggy and why we shouldn't vote for him.

[Bubbles]

Although not anymore at this point. This vote could be a bandwagon, or just a vote on Liggy because she was already suspicious of him.

I was already suspicious of him. I asked him to reveal something non-threatening to the humans and he didn't, leading me to become suspicious.

You seem to be WAY to certain that Yugi is the best lynch target, which could be a move like Thiannon's accusation of TBWCW. 1 has already been explained by that six random players are damaged by winter, I've already explained what I don't like about 2, and 3 means you're not willing to change your target.

And why wouldn't he have been the best lynching target? He wasn't defending himself much, and when he did it wasn't very effective. At this point in the game I feel a human would have made a greater effort, since if he was human his death could have meant a loss for the humans.

And Thiannon if you're still calling me a wolf partner because of defending FSM idk what to say

[davy]

Re: davy's (pretty impressive) tower post:

I've already addressed the Boy stuff, and I don't want to insult anyone's intelligence by repeating it, but I will say briefly, again, that at the time of the lynch and its immediate aftermath, I didn't really see the case for Boy's humanity. A lot of other people were in the same boat--that insta came fast and furious. FSM was even more adamant that Boy was a wolf than I was:

I think my willingness to repeatedly visit the question of Boy's humanity and the specifics of his lynching points to my humanity, if anything. If he and I were wolves together, wouldn't it have made more sense for me to just drop the subject? No one else was talking about it. All pounding the Boy drum would do in those circumstances is lead the humans toward a correct conclusion, and the goal of the wolves is primarily to disinform humans. I vacillated a little after discussing things with Liggy; this is what humans do! Or that's what I do as a human, anyway. You guys may have all played enough together to be unwaveringly convinced of BDS's or FSM's humanity, but I haven't had that luxury. I guess if Boy was a human and I was a wolf, it would be advantageous for me to condemn him, but I've yet to see anyone make a convincing case that he was.

Yugi is actually #3 in my Day 2 suspicion list, and Mashi was #4; leaving Boy in there was probably confusing, and I apologize. I was one of the first people to suspect Mashi--isn't it reasonable that I might feel good about the outcome of the lynch? I don't think commenting on the lynch in general is particularly unusual. What's unusual is that I actually agreed with a lynch I wasn't actively involved in!

Your other comments seem to follow the "humans don't change their minds" line of thinking that just doesn't make sense to me; again, I think it was reasonable to doubt my original conviction re: Boy in light of Liggy's continued refusal to martyr himself.

Regarding your comment on the Mashi lynch: no, it's not unreasonable to feel good about the outcome of the lynch, but it's strange that you post it.

Regarding your opinion on Boy's humanity: I don't say that humans don't change their mind, I only say that your mind change throughout the game is a mind change that would work well for a wolf.

@ davy's post

I didn't really attack Olimar, and I don't believe that I ever voted for him. I was pointing out that he really didn't have a valid reason to lie to the thread and that I'd like to wait for his explanation.

As for the suspicion list, at the time, BDS hadn't posted much at all, but I didn't remember his posts being selective while Yugi's seemed irrelevant in big discussions and simple in small decisions. For Mashi, fourth doesn't seem entirely safe. Really, I was equally suspicious of Yugi and FSM which would move him up to third. But still, I found him slightly suspicious, but never talked to him in the entire game. I would have, but he was lynched the day I actually found him active in the chat.

On the confusing vote, I had already stated why I was suspicious of FSM quite recently, and he was at the top of my list, so I didn't feel the need to explain it all over again. Instead I agreed with a post by Mashi concerning Liggy and why we shouldn't vote for him.

The Olimar attack: I think it's reasonable to question why Olimar lied, but if that was what you were trying to do, I wouldn't have started the post with: "What reason does Olimar have for lying other than being a wolf?"

The suspicion list: Fourth place for Mashi is safe because there are three likelier lynch targets, but IF Mashi is lynched, you can always claim you were already suspicious of Mashi. And, what exactly do you mean by "selective"?

The vote: This shows that I should have put more time into analyzing your suspicion list.

I was already suspicious of him. I asked him to reveal something non-threatening to the humans and he didn't, leading me to become suspicious.

And why wouldn't he have been the best lynching target? He wasn't defending himself much, and when he did it wasn't very effective. At this point in the game I feel a human would have made a greater effort, since if he was human his death could have meant a loss for the humans.

Suspicion of Liggy: Ok, that's reasonable.

Yugi as best lynch target: The reasons why you were suspicious of him I have already adressed. None of you were making any effort in getting anyone other than Yugi lynched, persumably because Yugi was an easy lynch. Yugi stops defending himself early more often, because Yugi is not the best player for defending himself. Also, Losing a wolf in this part of the game would severly damage the wolf team, if not completely destroy them. Yes, his death could mean a loss for the humans, but if I were Yugi, I would also grow tired of being accused on my playing style.


It's a close call between Bubbles and Thiannon for me, but I decided to vote Bubbles because, while she does have more posts pointing towards her humanity, I don't feel confident about lynching Thia just for his attitude towards the Boy lynch. Bubbles on the other hand is suspicious for her attitude towards the Yugi lynch, her FireArrow vote, which she hasn't defended herself against, and for not claiming to Liggy.

Good night everyone, and happy lynching.

[Bubbles]

Your "goodnight" makes me think you're not going to be online to change your vote, but I'll respond anyway..

As for my Firearrow vote, what do I have to defend myself against? He was throwing accusations out everywhere and not changing his mind no matter what. The last time I played a game where someone did that, even though it wasn't Firearrow himself, that person turned out to be a wolf (this game here, Falcon was the wolf)

I didn't claim to Liggy because I misunderstood a part of the game. When it was cleared up (Heres the post where I realized it), I claimed:

I didn't claim earlier because I didn't know that the wolves weren't in any houses, so I didn't really see a reason for you to need everyone's houses. Because of that, I thought you or someone you were in contact with had some power that involved houses or something of the sort, so I didn't want to claim just in case I was missing something.

[Zunawe]

Davy: I mean he posted something somewhat useful when nothing big was occurring, and seemed to try to stay back when there was a clear, two-sided debate.

Nobody has addressed FSM's post above. Can anybody confirm that there's any real information there? If so, please don't damage people. There's too big a risk of killing a human which just makes it that much easier for the wolves to win.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Bubbles, I don't think a new player throwing out random suspicions is abnormal I was pretty bad my first game.

@Z: I'm confident of Davy's humanity because last night he promised to heal me one heart.  In the morning, bam, I'm at full health again.

Davy, I see your reasons against Bubbles, but everything there is so in character for her anyway.  Thiannon for me.

Your attitude about the Boy lynch is bizarre.  And pounding the Boy drum makes you human, because as a wolf you'd want to ditch a potential killed partner?  It's not lying low, or even pulling a seizure man that makes anyone a good wolf.  It's lying low AND pulling a seizure man, exactly in character as you would do as a human.  Not to mention I'm not sure Boy was a wolf.  If you read back over my posts, I was pretty reluctant to lynch him.

Start circulating discussion, guys.  Endgame is important.

Zunawe, I can't confirm it, but I'm pretty sure FSM is human.  Also, who are you suspicious of, Z?  You've remained pretty aloof.

[Zunawe]

I've been trying to listen before putting anything out there.

I'm still not sure that I trust davy. Sure he healed you, but it's not as if that's impossible for a wolf to do, and it obviously gained your trust. However, I don't really have anything to hold against him, so I'm not going to go down that path.

I've never played with Thiannon, or even really talked to him, so I don't have much to go on behavior-wise. His ideas about TBWCW and Liggy seemed to flip flop a little over time, which is odd. I think he manages to call both Boy and Liggy a wolf even though one would almost definitely have to be the opposite of the other for the succession list evidence to work.

Bubbles seems to bandwagon slightly. She does bring up a few good points in her vote posts, but it looks like she goes toward the most likely target for each lynching. She also seems a little too lenient on some people. When Olimar lied about his role she seemed to think it a new player's mistake before questioning it. Also, she seems very reluctant to question anything FSM has posted because of whatever came up even though it really shouldn't be relevant to the game.

I still don't like leaving FSM, but it's fairly obvious that nobody is going to go after him until he's replaced.

As much as I hate to say it, the fact that TZP is king makes him a very likely human. It's not impossible that he's a wolf, but it's very very unlikely.

Right now, the most wolfish person seems to be Bubbles. Mostly just because nobody else seems to stand out as much. She just seems to have been playing a little too safe.

[Bubbles]

Bubbles seems to bandwagon slightly. She does bring up a few good points in her vote posts, but it looks like she goes toward the most likely target for each lynching. She also seems a little too lenient on some people. When Olimar lied about his role she seemed to think it a new player's mistake before questioning it. Also, she seems very reluctant to question anything FSM has posted because of whatever came up even though it really shouldn't be relevant to the game.

When did I brush off Olimar's lie as a new player's mistake? iirc I was suspicious of him after he was a "confirmed" human xD

Again on the FSM thing: I am not saying his personal issue proves/disproves him a wolf. I just don't want you jumping to the conclusion that because he has something going on, he made it up as an excuse to be inactive. Actually, I don't even know if thats what you guys are trying to prove, I honestly have no idea why a personal matter would make someone a wolf! I am suspicious of FSM for still being alive after being virtually gone for a few phases. If he was a human he would be an easy kill.

[Zunawe]

"Olimar is most likely human. I really don't see why a wolf would risk fake claiming in a game where you have a role to specifically fake claim with. Sure, he's a new player, but his wolf partners definitely would have made an effort to tell him not to do that."
I misread where you said "new player". It still seems like a jump for an initial reaction.

I'm not trying to say that FSM is suspicious because he's gone. It just seems to me like you're trying to avoid him until somebody replaces him.

[Bubbles]

Oh. Looks like I did Still, what I said makes sense. If a new player was a wolf, he would have been more cautious and his partners would have informed him on the basics of what to do and what not to do, so fake claiming wouldn't have happened.

Regardless, I'm not really sure what you're trying to prove. I'm too "lenient"? Wouldn't a wolf push lynches and suspicions on people, especially since we now know that Olimar was most likely a human?

[Zunawe]

Which is where I start to get fuzzy on everybody. A good wolf would try to hang back and not decide who to vote for immediately as long as the person being lynched isn't undesirable. He/she wouldn't push lynches unless it was a key player. An average human would vote based on what other people bring up and they might put in their own points. Outwardly, both behaviors would look the same in general.

What I'm saying is that you could be hanging back and not forcing anything to avoid looking like an aggressive wolf, and you could also be subtly defending a partner.

It's difficult to explain exactly why it's pushing me toward you, but I'm trying as best I can.

[Bubbles]

I still can't see a valid suspicion you have on me

[Thiannon]

Sorry if my post this morning was a bit brusque, Bubbles. I was really tired. I see where you're coming from now, but I think you're way off base (much too off base for a human, but more on that in a sec) regarding wolf alibis. I've played multiple games where wolves have used their personal lives as excuses for their inactivity. I'm not judging those people for it, and I'm not suggesting they're lying or taking advantage of anyone else's leniency. We're under no obligation to extend it to them, after all. It's an opportunistic, smart play for a wolf to disappear from the topic, particularly on NSM where it seems people are quite reluctant to lynch inactives.

The mere fact that Bird hasn't moved to kick or replace FSM looks quite suspicious to me; he didn't hesitate to replace two probable humans in slowpokemon and K-Night. My guess is he's worried that replacing a wolf could actually impact the outcome of the game.

Now, enough about FSM. This post of yours really caught my eye upon further review:

I never said FSM was human or wolf, in fact if you read my posts I said I was suspicious of him. I just don't think you should blame someone's personal life on them being a wolf. I can't believe I have to explain myself here

When I first read it I focused more on the last two clauses and just sort of accepted the first. But rereading it tonight, your first sentence is almost textbook wolf behaviour. Saying you're suspicious of someone without committing to him one way or another and actively campaigning he stay in the game is just the sort of thing a wolf would do for one of his partners. You have the alibi, which you used here, of saying he's suspicious without ever having to act on those suspicions yourself, or ever actually contributing to his possible lynch. Humans don't do this.

Even more damning was our exchange in the chat early last week, when I commented offhand that "Bubbles' playstyle drives me crazy". FSM immediately came to your defense, then summoned you to the chat where you confronted me about it. My question is simple: why were you online, talking to FSM, when you could have been in the chat talking to all of us, actively contributing and helping to determine who to lynch? I expect you'll say that you and FSM are friends and that's fine, but friends can be wolves together. You've done nothing to help the human team this game, up to and including entering the chat unless explicitly called upon, yet you've had plenty of time to fraternize with FSM. That's at best irresponsible and at worst blatantly wolfish. Even now, you've only become active because you're on the hotseat. You repeatedly defend yourself by saying you don't understand why people are suspicious of you (or him) without actually arguing your case. That's because you don't have one.

Bubbles. God help us if this means we lose. I really think it's her/FSM/Mashi now, though. Bubbles posted three times Day 2; twice she made a joke and once to claim she wasn't being inactive. She then proceeded to miss the rest of the phase. She was also quick to vote Liggy Day 1, and he's pretty obviously human at this point.