TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[Bird]

Update may be 10 or so minutes late.

[Bird]

Character List (Quick Reference)

Spoiler

Eddard Stark
Catelyn Stark
Bran Stark
Arya Stark
Robb Stark
Jon Snow

Tywin Lannister
Cersei Lannister
Jaime Lannister
Tyrion Lannister
Gregor Clegane
Sandor Clegane

Robert Baratheon
Stannis Baratheon
Melisandre
Davos Seaworth
Renly Baratheon
Brienne of Tarth

Viserys Targaryen
Illyrio Mopatis
Daenerys Targaryen
Khal Drogo
Jorah Mormont
Mirri Maz Duur

Margaery Tyrell
Lysa Arryn
Theon Greyjoy
Varys

[close]

Character List (with Descriptions)

Spoiler

Character List

There are 28 characters in this list, but only 11 of them are actual roles in this game. The other 17 are false roles given to players and White Walkers to allow them to false claim more easily. This lists each of those roles (real or fake) by their house allegiance, if any. Try not to make too many assumptions about the make-up of the game based on the list or your role PM; I peppered the game description with (probably)s for a reason--it's tricky! The White Walkers may not even be red! They could be white or something! Characters from this list were selected to be in the game at random, rather than based on their importance.

* * *



House Stark
For the most part, friends with House Baratheon and enemies with House Lannister.

Eddard Stark - The honorable Lord of Winterfell and head of House Stark, Eddard "Ned" Stark is a man of principles. He's a good man, but very grim. He's known for repeating the words of House Stark: "Winter is Coming."
Catelyn Stark - Lady Catelyn Stark is Lord Eddard Stark's wife. Born a Tully of Riverrun in the south, she has yet to learn to love the North, but certainly loves her children. She is protective of them, and apprehensive that their safety may be endangered when war approaches.
Bran Stark - Bran Stark is the younger brother of Robb Stark and Jon Snow, and a son of Lord Eddard Stark. He's a kind and loving, with a strange gift for seeing things; visions and dreams of things to come. He also has a huge pet wolf named Summer.
Arya Stark - Arya Stark is the youngest daughter of Eddard and Catelyn Stark. She likes fighting, horseback riding, stealing treasures, killing people... typical little girl stuff. She's fierce, able to disguise herself and isn't afraid to do what she can to get what she wants, which in this case is probably revenge.
Robb Stark - Robb Stark is the eldest son of Eddard and Catelyn Stark and will inherit Winterfell and all of its titles. Like his father, he's honorable, with a strong sense of justice, although he does have a rebellious side as well. Excellent with a sword, too.
Jon Snow - Jon Snow is the black sheep of the Stark family, namely because he is not a Stark. Bastard children of the north are given the surname "Snow," and Catelyn Stark is not his mother. Since he won't inherit any lands or titles, he sought to find his place by joining the Night's Watch. There he watches from a wall of ice a wasteland full of ancient monsters and stuff. He carries around a torch, is very similar to his father, and has a giant wolf pet named Ghost.

* * *



House Lannister
For the most part, enemies with House Stark.

Tywin Lannister - Tywin Lannister is a wealthy, insightful, influential, and powerful man. When he was a teenager he completely exterminated a competing house, literally wiping the name "Reyne" from the Earth. He has many informants and cares about the legacy and reputation of House Lannister more than almost anything else.
Cersei Lannister - Cercei Lannister is as beautiful as she is backstabbing. Which is to say, very beautiful and very backstabbing. On the surface, she's the perfect lady, full of grace and charm. But just below the surface is a woman who is conniving, poisonous and prideful above all else. In other words, sort of a bitch! Twins with Jaime.
Jaime Lannister - Jaime Lannister is one of the greatest knights of the Kingsguard, a group of bodyguards sworn to protect the King. However, he has earned the nickname "Kingslayer" for killing the King (Mad King Aerys) he was sworn to protect. They call him honorless, but that doesn't change the skill he has with a sword. His last name also means he's super wealthy, which is pretty neat. Twins with Cersei. Has a sort of lazy, arrogant coolness about him.
Tyrion Lannister - Tyrion is a dwarf. Not the magical kind, a person with dwarfism. And he's sort of the reject of House Lannister, since none of his family likes him, despite the fact that he often has to fix their mistakes. He's extremely witty and tricky, but weak on the battlefield because of his stature.
Gregor Clegane - "Tywin's Mad Dog" they call him. He's an 8-foot-tall killing machine, with the tactical skills of an ape and the scaring skills of the Bottom of the Well from Ocarina of Time. He does Tyiwn's dirty work: pillaging, killing children, you name it. His huge size, addiction to painkillers and monstrous acts have left him mostly unfeeling.
Sandor Clegane - Gregor Clegane's younger brother. When he was a small boy, Gregor shoved his face into a hot fire, burning half of it, making him look pretty hideous. He's still an excellent swordsman, and incredibly loyal to House Lannister. He's no knight though, and hates all they stand for. He hates a lot of things, really.

* * *



House Baratheon
For the most part, friends with House Stark and enemies with House Targaryen.

Robert Baratheon - Robert Baratheon was once a fierce warrior and commander, crushing enemie and armies with his warhammer. Now he's sort of just a fat, lusty lecher. He still keeps up with the politics and plots of Westeros, but doesn't relish it the way other characters do. Hates the Targaryens for killing his love, Lyanna Stark.
Stannis Baratheon - Stannis is Robert's younger brother. Where Robert was easygoing, Stannis was stubborn and where Robert would let things slide, Stannis would deliver unflinching and merciless justice. A fierce naval commander and zealous believer in a the "Red God" of Melisandre. Also he will do whatever he can to spread information he believes to be true if it is what's right.
Melisandre - A red priestess of Asshai who became a loyal follower of Stannis Baratheon. She has magic powers, many relating to the use of fire, alchemy or poison. Believes she can see things in her fires.
Davos Seaworth - A smuggler who became a loyal follower of Stannis Baratheon. Will do what he can to advise or help him, and is a very trustworthy individual.
Renly Baratheon - Renly is Robert's youngest brother. Although he was never the warrior or commander his brothers were, his wit and looks have made him extremely popular with the commoners. Their love for him will surely give him hella armies someday. Oh, also he's totally gay.
Brienne of Tarth - A woman who would be a knight. Totally in love with Renly, and is completely dedicated to whatever cause he may pursue. Used to getting mocked for being a chick with a sword, but she's good with the sword so it doesn't matter that much. Very simple, not into the plots everybody else is obsessed with. Oh, also she's super tall and ugly.

* * *



House Targaryen
For the most part, enemies with House Baratheon.

Viserys Targaryen - The exiled Targaryen Prince. When Mad King Aerys was killed, the Targaryens were forced into hiding. As a result of this (or perhaps as a result of all the Targaryen inbreeding), he's gone sort of mad. Known as "The Beggar King" since he flees from place to place, begging for an army to take back the only home he ever knew. Also he gets really angry.
Illyrio Mopatis - The wealthy merchant who took in the Targaryens. Lives in the distant city of Pentos and plots to have the Targaryens ascend to power in Westeros by creating a war there.
Daenerys Targaryen - The exiled Targaryen Princess. Viserys had her married off to the savage tribal horde known as the Dothraki so that Khal Drogo might lead his horde to Westeros to take the throne back. She is shy and weak initially but learns to be strong like dragon. She also seeks vengeance for being exiled and her father being killed by the people there.
Khal Drogo - The savage leader of the Dothraki and husband of Daenerys Targaryen. Extremely strong and an incredible rider and fighter. Tough, terrifying and ambitious, there is little he could not do if he were determined, despite the simplicity of Dothraki culture.
Jorah Mormont - When Daenerys was given to the Dothraki, Jorah, another exile of Westeros, served as her guide. He's a knight who was sentenced to death for slaving, and has now found someone from Westeros to serve and counsel. But also, he's a spy!
Mirri Maz Duur - A witch that the Dothraki Horde happens across. Saved by Daenerys, she offers to help do cool magic stuff, like bring stuff back from the dead and set up poisons, cures and curses.

* * *



Third Parties
Could be aligned with anyone or no one.

Margaery Tyrell - The Tyrells are a powerful house that is moving up in the world. They rule over the lands of the south called "The Reach" the breadbasket of Westeros. Loved by her people (especially for bringing food to King's Landing, the capital), Margaery is trying to move up in the world. And for a woman, that means marrying somebody awesome.
Lysa Arryn - Lysa Arryn became unhinged when her husband died. Actually she's sort of a lunatic. She's paranoid, thinks she's seeing plots against her everywhere and has taken refuge in the mountain castle called The Eyrie. They kill people there by making them go through what is called the "Moon Door" where they fall to their deaths. Neat!
Theon Greyjoy - The only surviving son of Balon Greyjoy, the Lord of the Iron Islands. When the Greyjoys rebelled against the crown, Eddard Stark took Theon as his hostage and ward. He was raised alongside the other Starks, and is dark, witty, treacherous and good with a bow.
Varys - Varys is an enigmatic figure. A eunuch who rose to become a King's Advisor thanks to his network of spies. Little happens that he does not hear about, and its a mystery where his allegiances truly lie. Also he smells really nice.

[close]

Players:

- Yugi
- Mashi
- Liggy
- BlackDragonSlayer
- davy
- Bubbles
- Thiannon
- Zunawe
- fank009
- Olimar12345
- FSM-Reapr
- TheZeldaPianist275
- FireArrow
- The Boy Who Cried Wolf

Chatroom

BDS has died. TheZeldaPianist275 sits upon the Iron Throne. It is now Day 4. Day 4 ends the day after tomorrow, (Wednesday) June 12th at 11:00 PM CDT.











Let me know via PM if you think I forgot something. I'm still trying to get PMs out to people, but this internet is making it very difficult!

[Zunawe]

Some shenanigans went down.

Let's see. We know that we've killed at least one wolf or the game would be over. I suppose that's not a huge accomplishment considering the number of people dead.

If I remember correctly, the king can heal one heart for anybody. I would assume that Thiannon either healed himself somehow or somebody else decided to heal him. But davy. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember you saying that your protection power was only for one phase. The next question is who damaged you? Or even had reason to. Unless the wolves have a nullification power, they would have known it to be a futile effort. Even if they did they'd need another damaging power, which would make them a bit overpowered in my opinion.

Also, it surprises me that you aren't dead yet, TZP. I would think the wolves would want the throne.

[davy]

But davy. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember you saying that your protection power was only for one phase. The next question is who damaged you? Or even had reason to. Unless the wolves have a nullification power, they would have known it to be a futile effort. Even if they did they'd need another damaging power, which would make them a bit overpowered in my opinion.

Protection - Non-lethal damage dealt to you is prevented. This ability expires at the end of day 3.

Also, remember that I was damaged by an unknown source during night 3, before bird corrected his mistake. It could be possible that the caster or that source used it on me again to check if my power had really expired. Also, I think wolves can use the powers of their fake roles if they disguise as them:

3. The Wolves. I already mentioned in the health section that the wolves were capable of reviving players as their undead minions. They can do this and much more. In fact, they're an incredibly powerful force.

• They know each other.
• They can temporarily take on the characteristics and allegiances of other roles. This may enable them to sit on the Iron Throne if they play their cards right!
• They will be weak to fire while not taking on characteristics of other roles.
• They can raise players from the dead. These "icy thralls" will count for the wolves and be unable to use powers or vote. They will also be susceptible to fire.

And many other things. They're a force to be reckoned with.

Now my role PM calles my powers: Abilities and Characteristics, and I don't think that there is a difference between the two, so that's why I think they can use fake role powers.


On another topic, FSM is probably not going to be replaced, so I think we should not waste our lynch at him, and vigi him (or deal him at least two hearts damage) next night phase.

And since I know that I'm a human, and I seriously doubt TZP would be a wolf, that only leaves Bubbles, Zunawe and Thiannon. I'll make an analysis of their behavior during this game in my next post.

[davy]

Never mind about wolves having fake role powers; I should have read bird's early posts beter.

[davy]

Thiannon:

Also, we're here, we're queer, we want to get married on the ocean, etc. I'm inclined to trust Liggy for the moment, since wolves generally don't initiate crazy suicidal plans in the early game (even Bird didn't do this last game) and all the information he'd glean almost certainly isn't worth the cost of a wolf's life. I do think it's absolutely imperative that anyone with succession information not share it with Liggy or anyone else unless he's quite certain he can trust him, as I imagine it could be a serious problem if the wolves manage to sit the throne.

Here Thiannon says that he's inclined to trusts liggy for that moment, and I would have agreed with him if I was in the game by that time.

This was supposed to be an hour for me to reread the topic and post my suspicion list, but my phone's reminding me that I was supposed to visit my grandparents, so this will have to be short.

I thought Olimar was human prior to FSM's post. He looked like a confused human Night 1 and I think a new player in a game like this, no matter how confused he might be, would be quite likely to lie in the thread. There's really no reason for a human to lie about his house, though--it's just a good way to get yourself lynched (since the wolves are obviously doing this). Liggy's suggestion that we "might not find a better lynch" is a cop-out. We might not, but we should at least try to do better, starting with BDS, who has posted a lot but said little. We're all blues in this game, so that's no excuse. He claimed in the chat last night that his behaviour was similar in Bowser's Big Blast, but I don't have time to review that.

Want to help the human team and not sure how to do so? Go back and re-read Bowser's Big Blast for BDS's behaviour. I'm tired of people being inactive because there's "nothing they can do to help". Yes, Bubbles, I'm looking at you.

FSM's post looks really weird, though. fank's death is really suspicious because he claimed Daenerys (which I imagine was his fake role, which is really lame because it sounds like she was a serious wolf-wrecker, but that's not really the point). Liggy and I were discussing Thursday about how useful fire will be to test for wolfishness. fank claims that power and is immediately wolfed. I used to think everyone wolfed "unlikely" targets N1, but I think I'd make an exception in this case if I were a wolf. Mashi's claim he wouldn't wolf fank is "meta-ing" of the worst kind. Sorry, Mashi.

As human as Olimar looked, then, the circumstantial against him and by extension FSM after he defended him and, by virtue of his knowing fank's identity ahead of time, Liggy, is not good. I would be up for lynching one of those three or BDS. I might be okay with lynching an inactive too--I'll have to think about it. Bubbles, K-Night, Boy, etc. should most definitely be held accountable for not being here.

FSM: I think you're underestimating the "fairness" of this game. I really do think Bird rolled the roles randomly (i.e. whether a role is real or fake or given to a wolf (as a fake) or a human was randomized in some fashion).

I'll try to be on tomorrow morning, but I'll be at my girlfriend's, so no guarantees. I will be on tomorrow night for the lynch, though.

Here, he defends Olimar, which is eighter a human move or a seizure man move. He then attacks BDS for his playstyle, which is explainable because Thia hasn't played many games with BDS, and proceeds to attack FSM, Liggy and Mashi; with FSM and Mashi still having big chances of being a wolf in my opinion. I think this post indicates he's human.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf, as per the chat. A lot of traction on this lynch, but that's what happens when you fake a suspicion list!

We almost certainly killed a wolf D1. What's there to complain about??

These posts however, indicate that he's a wolf, because he's way to sure about the TBWCW lynch, which could be a wolf strategy of making sure people believe that one less wolf is to be searched and also to eliminate other players from their chance of being a wolf, because they won't be a likely combination with the player that is expected to be a wolf (this strategy is seen in TWG IV and TWG IX for example).

Bah, this list turned into a convoluted mess. So many players just aren't compatible as wolves together, which is obviously a good thing, but makes sorting through things difficult. Voting FSM for now.

Suspicion List:

1. The Boy Who Cried Wolf - I see no reason for him to give off a fake succession list as a human. It's possible he was a third party (and this possibility shouldn't be overlooked), but that third party can't be Varys or Margaery, which leaves few options (Theon?).

2. FSM-Reapr - His call for suspicion lists looks like typical filler. His guard claim is specious, as well. As Davy points out, it's easy to fake, and worthwhle to do so as well, considering guards are a useful commodity. His declaration of his intent to use it in the thread was weird, too. Better to try to induce the block, no?  Yes, he defended Olimar, but wolves defend humans all the time. Also, Liggy tells me FSM may have received his succession list from Olimar, which kneecaps his primary defense. Something about FSM has been weird all game, though that might just be my being paranoid.

3. Liggy - I'm beginning to doubt his claim that he just needs to guess TZP's role to win, but TZP should just give it to him so he can then martyr himself (which he needs to do by N3 at the latest) and we can move past all this.

4. Yugi - Virtually every post he's made (I went back twenty pages) has been less than one line long. Literally. His last two posts have just been to defend Liggy. There's also this:

He worded it to sound like it's knowledge he's gleaned from past games, and that's my experience as well, but where did he get this knowledge? Have there been other martyr-like roles on NSM? Otherwise this just sound like more Liggy defending--and as if he has actual insight into Liggy's role. If Liggy's a wolf, Yugi is almost certainly his partner.

5. Mashi - His defense post Day 1 went a little overboard, I think, particularly with the "meta"-ing at the beginning. He and FSM have been going at it pretty good, too. If FSM isn't a wolf, I think Mashi is a good candidate.

6. BlackDragonSlayer - Like Bubbles below him, he hasn't contributed much, but he's actually posted quite a bit, including this bizarre post in which he debates whether he should post a suspicion list:

This sounds like he's trying to act human (i.e. matching his previous behaviour) more than trying to catch wolves (by actually posting a suspicion list). He'd be higher in my list, but others have insisted this is the way he usually acts (I really only remember his play from the previous game in which he was king).

7. Zunawe - Who?? Needs to post more, or he's shooting right up my list. Unlike Bubbles, I don't think he has a history of (relative) inactivity; can anyone confirm this?

8. Bubbles - Hasn't contributed much, but this seems to be textbook human Bubbles (and wolf-Bubbles, mind you).

9. davy - Looks like human Davy to me.

10. FireArrow - He was my pick for the D1 lynch before Boy's deception came out, but reviewing the past couple phases, I really don't think his behaviour matches that of a first-time player-wolf. He's missed the mark a lot, but he's also said a lot I agree with. He also spotted the fact that Boy's fake list could have been given to him in a fake role (i.e. Varys), which was helpful.

11. TheZeldaPianist275 - I find it highly unlikely the wolves would have been both willing and able to seize the throne Day 1, particularly as Boy didn't seem to know the actual chain of succession.

12. Olimar12345 - Wolfed D2. 

13. fank009 - Wolfed D1. I asked Bird and he said that corpse burning isn't the only way to remove a player from the game, so it stands to reason the wolves did this.

14. Thiannon - Little-known fact about me: my uncle is reclusive 70s pop singer (of "Lowdown" and "Lido Shuffle") Boz Scaggs. The more you know!

The most interesting things about this list is the top five. Yugi and mashi are just outside the top three, but still high in the suspicion list, which is an exelent place to put your wolf partners at, because you say that there are three better options, decreasing the chance that the partners are lynched, but increasing the chance that when they are lynched, you won't be lynched because those players can't be partners with you. The combination TBWCW on 1 and Liggy on 3 seems super strange to me, because if Liggy lied about TBWCW, TBWCW would be a human, and I see no reason for Liggy to lie about that when he was a human.

I'm feeling pretty good about the Mashi lynch, actually. His defenses were not good, and wolf Mashi in my experience usually does claim busy-ness. FSM still has a lot to answer for, though.

Liggy's self-vote raised my suspicions, so we discussed things in the IRC. Posting it here for everyone else to see. He claims he's going to martyr himself tonight, but I'll believe it when I see it.

This is where I think Thiannon gets a little cautious. He claims to be confident about the Mashi lynch, which could be a wolf move to make himself see human, while I don't really think what a human would gain with it. Also, this is actually the first time in the game he says that Liggy might have lied about TBWCW, while earlier he was so sure that TBWCW was a wolf.

I supported the Boy lynch and while Mashi wasn't my first choice for the Day 2 lynch, he was one of my top suspicions. As for Boy, I think I addressed my conviction that he was a wolf pretty well in my Day 2 suspicion list:

I think that's a pretty good reason why! When I was kind of doubting my conviction later, I broached the topic with Liggy in the chat (copy-pasted from my log at the beginning of N3):

I think Boy's allegiance is really important at this point, because there are a lot of people here who couldn't be wolves with him, most notably FSM and Liggy (who is looking more human now that he consummated his martyrdom promise). Regardless, because of what we know from FSM/Olimar's succession list, we know Varys was a fake role. (It was at the top of the succession list, but Boy didn't become king, as per Liggy.) No one else has claimed it as his own fake role, so it seems pretty certain that it was Boy's. So it was either one of his two fake wolf roles or his fake human role.

It's certainly possible Boy was lying. He's done some weird stuff in the past, if memory serves, and Liggy was (and is) far from a confirmed human. But it's not like Liggy put out a call for succession lists or anything like that. Boy volunteered that information, and I don't see what incentive a human had would be to intentionally mislead.

One weird thing is the fact that Boy claimed a third-party role: that seems like suicide as a wolf to me, but maybe he had two third-party roles and claimed the one he thought was more valuable, or something.

Suspicion list to follow later.

Once again, he tries to make himself look human by saying he supported the TBWCW and the Mashi lynch. And then he lowers his suspicion of TBWCW even more.

Zunawe

What reason does Olimar have for lying other than being a wolf? As far as we've discovered, it's wolves versus humans, and there aren't any win conditions for factions. I'm not sure exactly his motives in lying about his false role, so I'd like to hear his story as well.

I think you were quick to attack Olimar, so I think this is quite a wolfish move.

FSM seems to be acting oddly and slightly randomly, but I don't know his playstyle, so that may be just a personality thing. I'll have to find time to talk to people in the chat before I make a dramatic decision.

He then attacks FSM, who was indeed acting strangely at that time.

I believe that Liggy said when he was first trying to reassure us in the thread that he would gladly kill himself to prove his humanity and confirm whatever information he put into the thread. We could easily pick somebody to lynch on this day and have a vote the next phase/phases on whether or not Liggy should use his power. Of course, somebody would have to be injured in order for this to work effectively.

He is also quick to defend Liggy, which could be defending a wolf partner, but now that we know Liggy was probably human, he was just helping Liggy as a human, or he was trying to look human.

Not to just make excuses, but my posts per day have dropped in general over time. I'm spending less time on NSM overall, and that may be what you're noticing.

Going from most suspicious to least suspicious.

FSM-Reapr - I know people don't like behavior-based logic, but I'm still going to say that my impression of you is influencing my thoughts. Along with that, you have yet to prove that any of your powers are even real.

Yugi - You don't seem to be posting relevant information when it comes to big issues. That could be paranoia making you feel like it's dangerous to even put your name on a controversial idea, which I guess could go for both a wolf and a human, but I think a human would be more inclined to contribute his/her beliefs to the thread rather than keeping out of everything.

Liggy - The more I think about the people who have died, the more it points to people with information. The person with the most information publicly is you. Like FSM, you haven't proven that your powers are real, and if you're making a giant bluff, you will have gotten a lot of information and killed multiple people before you died. However, some of your actions would be odd if you were a wolf. Let's say you are, you gave up on lynching Olimar to have a chance at getting TBWCW killed. That seems ridiculous for a wolf. Therefore, I am unsure at the moment.

Mashi - Unless you've changed your playstyle, you generally like to analyze everybody major and you're usually a leading player. I know you said you had things to do earlier in the game, but I still think you would have spent some time openly contributing to debates in the thread. You seem slightly suspicious, but I'm not going to put anything on you.

BDS/Thiannon - I'd like to say I can analyze something about you two, but really I don't see anything. For the most part, you post when you have something to say, but you haven't said anything drastic. I'm unsure.

Bubbles - You don't have the inactivity of a wolf, but you don't exactly post a lot. You're better than Yugi, but there's not much to go on.

FireArrow - You have drawn a lot of attention to yourself and revealed a lot that most of the other people here have kept hidden, and either that makes you a reckless wolf, or a truthful human. I personally believe it's the latter.

davy - Basically the same as BDS and Thiannon, though you seem to be taking a strong stance against Liggy, which puts you at the opposite end of the spectrum. It depends on what Liggy turns out to be.

TZP - You're basically a confirmed human as far as I can tell. There's a very low chance that the wolves guessed out of 22 roles which one would be king.

Most important thing to note about this suspicion list is that you have Yugi on 2 for not posting enough relevant information, but you leave BDS, who also posted a lot of filler, at the bottom of your list. You also have Mashi on a safe fourth place.

FSM because I do agree with Mashi slightly. It's obvious that the rest of us don't trust him, so we give him this final phase to prove his power. I won't condemn night two's actions completely, and if we have a second candidate, why not take the path of little risk to take a big step toward confirming some information?

Was this a safety? You only explained why you didn't vote for Liggy, but not why you voted for FSM.

Bubbles

My thoughts: Olimar is most likely human. I really don't see why a wolf would risk fake claiming in a game where you have a role to specifically fake claim with. Sure, he's a new player, but his wolf partners definitely would have made an effort to tell him not to do that. BDS always comments on everything, so just because those comments didn't exactly say anything doesn't point to him being a wolf. Also, Firearrow's suspicion of Liggy and Mashi are ridiculous. Mashi's defense sums it up: if they were going to wolf or fake kill their wolf partner, they wouldn't have done it on night one with no suspicions on him. (Thiannon, I'm not sure what "meta-ing" means). Currently I'm slightly suspicous of Firearrow, but also of Thiannon for voting for BDS just for making comments like he usually does.

Like the defences of the above two players, Bubbles' defence could be defending a wolf partner (almost impossible now that Olimar has been wolfed), helping a fellow human or trying to look human. She also defends BDS for his usual behavior, but that's something I did too, so I can't call that suspicious. She also puts a vote on FireArrow, but doesn't give a reasoning for it.

Per request: FSM, shadowkirby, and Bubbles never claimed to me.

As one of the only three players, Bubbles didn't claim to Liggy, which makes her suspicious.

I never said anything about the investigation, but even so that doesn't confirm Olimar as a human. How do we know the investigator wasn't lying? How do we know Liggy didn't make it up and the investigator doesn't even exist? Liggy also didn't have to reveal it to the thread, since theres still the possibility of them agreeing not to. Even if the investigation was 100% true, all it did was prove that Olimar lied about his roles. That neither absolutely confirms him human or wolf.

Anyone else reading this, don't get me wrong, I'm not putting suspicions on Liggy. I'm just saying that there's no confirmation for Olimar being human

I like how you not immediately agree with Olimar being a confirmed human. This makes you look like a human who's thinking through things rather well.

Can someone give me an actual reason that the majority of votes are on FSM right now? I can't find a reasonable one anywhere

Now this is a rather interesting move, as you don't defend FSM, but instead ask for evidence. This also looks like a human move.

Why did Liggy make such a big deal about revealing the investigator's role, regardless of him being a third-party role? The humans wouldn't kill him since that would waste a power or a lynch that could be used for the wolves, and the wolves wouldn't kill them for the same reason. The non-overriding victory (if its true) shouldn't bother the teams too much to make them kill the person, and they would probably be safer with their name being revealed to the thread so they wouldn't be accidentally killed.

I also likes that she critiques Liggy for not revealing the name of the third party, without immediately calling Liggy suspicious.

Liggy isn't doing a very good job with the independent thing, regardless of whatever that king list was

Although not anymore at this point. This vote could be a bandwagon, or just a vote on Liggy because she was already suspicious of him.

Right now I think we should lynch Yugi. Besides Liggy, he was the only player that wasn't damaged last night, and Zunawe has a point when he says that White Walkers wouldn't be damaged by Winter. And halfway into the phase
because that information would have been great to have earlier. This seems like he was just trying to think of a reason why he wasn't hurt, and BAM, all of a sudden he has a guarding power?

I think she condemns Yugi to easy for claiming he has a guardian power, especially because guarding doesn't stop winter.

Yugi, at this point I really don't see a reason why we shouldn't lynch you.

1. You are the only player that wasn't damaged last night, and whatever way you look at that its suspicious
2. You claim to have guarded yourself, but nowhere else in the game did you mention your guarding power (also you kind of just posted it out of nowhere), and apparently guarding doesn't protect from Winter
3. There isn't anyone else that has a stronger reason to be lynched besides you.

You seem to be WAY to certain that Yugi is the best lynch target, which could be a move like Thiannon's accusation of TBWCW. 1 has already been explained by that six random players are damaged by winter, I've already explained what I don't like about 2, and 3 means you're not willing to change your target.


That's all for now. I'll place my vote tomorrow.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Who died!? Who died!? Oh...

Ask TZP about FSM!! *cough* *cough* Fire and... and... *cough*

X_X

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Guys, I don't think we should overlook FSM yet.  I could see him making up an event in his life to win a TWG.  A lot of stuff he's said has been off.

[Bubbles]

No. He definitely wouldn't have made up something like that. The only reason I'm suspicious of him is because he's been virtually gone for a few phases now and hasn't been killed off by the wolves, which means he could be a possible partner. He didn't make anything up, I'm positive.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Hm.  Why do you say that?

As of right now, I am convinced of the humanity of BDS and Davy.  I'll make a new suspicion list tomorrow.

[Bubbles]

Honestly I'm mad that you would even suggest it.

[Thiannon]

I'm not sure it's worth getting mad about, Bubbles. Wolves, including good ones, leverage real-life stuff all the time. Did FSM have some sort of personal crisis? If so, I doubt TZP was aware of it. Regardless, that's actually happened to me in the past, when I was a wolf, and while I didn't use my personal issues as an excuse for my disappearance, it did mean I was gone for four or five days--enough to get me lynched. Obviously you guys know FSM better than I do, but I don't see how his disappearance points to his humanity, particularly when he was all over the map when he was actually here.

Re: davy's (pretty impressive) tower post:

I've already addressed the Boy stuff, and I don't want to insult anyone's intelligence by repeating it, but I will say briefly, again, that at the time of the lynch and its immediate aftermath, I didn't really see the case for Boy's humanity. A lot of other people were in the same boat--that insta came fast and furious. FSM was even more adamant that Boy was a wolf than I was:

TBWCW

He claimed Varys to Liggy and didn't become the King. That means he's a wolf.

I think my willingness to repeatedly visit the question of Boy's humanity and the specifics of his lynching points to my humanity, if anything. If he and I were wolves together, wouldn't it have made more sense for me to just drop the subject? No one else was talking about it. All pounding the Boy drum would do in those circumstances is lead the humans toward a correct conclusion, and the goal of the wolves is primarily to disinform humans. I vacillated a little after discussing things with Liggy; this is what humans do! Or that's what I do as a human, anyway. You guys may have all played enough together to be unwaveringly convinced of BDS's or FSM's humanity, but I haven't had that luxury. I guess if Boy was a human and I was a wolf, it would be advantageous for me to condemn him, but I've yet to see anyone make a convincing case that he was.

Yugi is actually #3 in my Day 2 suspicion list, and Mashi was #4; leaving Boy in there was probably confusing, and I apologize. I was one of the first people to suspect Mashi--isn't it reasonable that I might feel good about the outcome of the lynch? I don't think commenting on the lynch in general is particularly unusual. What's unusual is that I actually agreed with a lynch I wasn't actively involved in!

Your other comments seem to follow the "humans don't change their minds" line of thinking that just doesn't make sense to me; again, I think it was reasonable to doubt my original conviction re: Boy in light of Liggy's continued refusal to martyr himself.

----------------------------

I'm not sure how to vote at this point; if we mis-lynch today the game could be over. TZP, what did BDS mean in his death post about FSM? If I have time I want to go back over everything FSM has said in the topic, but I have a feeling that will take a lot longer than it did with Yugi. Bubbles is an obvious possible wolf partner with him, though, and davy's a possibility too, I guess. One thing that makes me nervous about davy is that I don't really see how Bird caught his mistake. Obviously davy could have told him about it himself, but he didn't really have incentive to (for all anyone knew he could have been the one wolfed). It seems like the kind of thing wolf partners catch--and the kind of power a wolf might have, actually. FireArrow didn't mention anything about attacking davy, did he?

[Bubbles]

I never said FSM was human or wolf, in fact if you read my posts I said I was suspicious of him. I just don't think you should blame someone's personal life on them being a wolf. I can't believe I have to explain myself here

[Zunawe]

I think that BDS' death post was just a mocking of the typical cliffhanger death you see in movies, and doesn't actually mean anything. If not, that post almost violates a rule (he technically shouldn't give any information about the game at all in a death post), but that's not for me to decide. I could be wrong about the relevance though.

By the way, TZP, what makes you so sure that davy's a human? I'm not denying it, but I'm not about to say that he's confirmed because of a flub by Bird.

And as for FSM, I think we should disregard his absence for whatever decisions we make. Whatever it was that happened, it seems that it was serious enough not to be some tool in a master scheme. Just base your suspicions on before he left, and on whoever replaces him if he gets that far.

[davy]

Bubbles and Zunawe, I worked TWO HOURS on my last post, so I expect you to respond to it.