TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[Liggy]

Or we can breathe safely knowing that the wolves never had access to a double revive, as icy thralls can't use powers, and fank probably lied about at least the "double" part.

On the other hand, we can scold you for even suggesting to burn fank's body, because it's WE who lost the revive power.  The wolves have no real reason to burn his body (the whole "icy thrall" thing), unless they can't summon icy thralls at will.  So either it's a human who wasn't thinking, or the wolves' revive powers are not as strong as we think they are.

[Bird]

Just over 4 hours left in the phase.

[davy]

I would agree with both a FSM lynch and a Liggy lynch. So I'll use this post to look who of them I deem most suspicious.

1. Liggy
Firstly, you said you would be activating your matyr power last night phase. He didn't. You're not going to get away with that this easy. Seccondly, you said you didn't activate your power last night phase, because you hadn't had a reply from TZP yet. However, I noticed TZP didn't post during the night phase at all, and hasn't posted this day phase eighter, while he has posted in the birthday topic. This gives me the feeling that (at least one of) the White Walkers has/have silencing powers. If they have it, they probably didn't used it day 1 so that the chance that we would notice they have it would be smaller. Additionally, the reason why you weren't lynched was due to a chat provided by yourself. It's possible that you faked it, although that would be unlikely as it was such a huge chat. More likely is that you faked the username to frame TBWCW, while keeping yourself safe. Also, he posted the chat at 02:20AM TBWCW's timezone, which means that TBWCW probably wasn't going to defend himself anyway.

2. FSM-Reapr
Although you did gave an excuse for not using your guardian power last night phase, I still think it's suspicious. Also, guadian powers are the easiest powers to fake as a wolf, especially if it's one-time use. Additionally, both of your posts containing claiming ideas are, although you defended yourself against it, still suspicious.

Liggy:
Appearently the white walkers didn't silence TZP, but the rest of my points still stand.

FSM:
I still have the same idea about you.

FSM-Reapr - I know people don't like behavior-based logic, but I'm still going to say that my impression of you is influencing my thoughts. Along with that, you have yet to prove that any of your powers are even real.

Liggy - The more I think about the people who have died, the more it points to people with information. The person with the most information publicly is you. Like FSM, you haven't proven that your powers are real, and if you're making a giant bluff, you will have gotten a lot of information and killed multiple people before you died. However, some of your actions would be odd if you were a wolf. Let's say you are, you gave up on lynching Olimar to have a chance at getting TBWCW killed. That seems ridiculous for a wolf. Therefore, I am unsure at the moment.

FSM:
I agree that he's suspicious because he still has to prove his guard powers. However, I don't understeand the rest of your suspicion of him.

Liggy:
The manti rule should indeed apply on you now, which makes you even more suspicious. I think it's quite plausible that you decided to safe Olimar to safe yourself and to enable you to lynch TBWCW. Olimar died last night after all, which would make sense if you are partnered with FSM, because that would mean you knew the chance that you would be able to kill him was pretty high.

My reasoning for not using the martyr power is as such: I'd rather be alive than dead, regardless of what people think of me.  My plan was for TZP to co-operate, and I wouldn't have to do anything else.  But he didn't.  And it stikes me as really stupid to kill myself for no good reason.  It really doesn't prove my humanity if no one is injured, and no one will revive me because someone will come up with an insane theory that I wolfed myself to seem human.

That said, I'm not going to get lynched without a fight, and I'd like to point I've been actively helping the human team more than most other people in the game, especially Olimar, who I'm sure most would agree was rather human.

For those who are keeping score:

• I organized everyone's house together, facilitating the use of productive powers.
• I cleared a player, nearly confirming his humanity.
• I revealed the name of a wolf.

At this rate, if I continued playing like this, I'd be more detrimental to the wolves alive even if I was a wolf.

It would have done you good if you used your matyr power last night phase if you are a human, because than we wouldn't be wasting this lynch on you. Also, you were probably the only one that was going to die with exception of the wolfing target, which means that two players would have died, which means that unless the wolfing target was killed by other means, which is not really that likely, that insane theory would be redicilously insane.

About your list:

• Could be seizure man strategy.
• But he was wolf'd last night, meaning he couldn't take advantage of it.
• We do not know for sure that TBWCW was a wolf.

1: Liggy; Although Boy could've easily been a wolf, his final post (I don't think it's there anymore...? :S) seems to cast a bit of doubt, although it could've easily been done to confuse the remaining humans. Needless to say, although this (and other behaviours) does not necessarily mean that you're a wolf, it's certainly quite suspicious.

2: FSM-Reapr; Had Olimar not been wolfed, you'd probably be a lot more suspicious, along with Olimar. Although I feel as if that is point in your favor, one must still factor in your "jumping in" on FireArrow's earlier accusations of Liggy, which seem more like a wolf trying to get into a bandwagon before it might become one than FireArrow's intentions (as described below).

Liggy:
I haven't seen Boy's last post so I can't comment on this.

FSM:
Are you sure you didn't mean less suspicious? I think the Olimar wolfing makes him more suspicious because I think he would have guarded Olimar. I don't actually see where FSM attacks liggy. Could you give me the quote?

1. Liggy: Yes, you have helped us a bit, but every single thing you did would make sense to do if you were a wolf. As I've already explained, the fank wolfing makes a ton of sense for you to do. You get to kill a powerful role while framing it on Olimar. Boy never lied about the suspicion list either, I just realized this, but his false role probably had a false list (false roles can have false knowledge, read the second post peeps!) If you could make up a story about him claiming Varys, then you avoid getting lynched while killing a human with a multiple use seer power (as shown by the logs you posted.)  I'm still not sure who to believe on this part.

Anything you've done to prove your humanity could easily be turned around as evidence to you being a wolf.

4. FSM:

I trusted you before, but now I don't know. You knew that Olimar was gonna seer someone last night and how vital that was (if it came back wolf, we pretty much found all three wolves.) Then, after Olimar dies, you just kinda cut me off from communication except to ask my powers. If you were a wolf, it would make sense if you didn't want me influencing TZP. Sure, there are reasonable explanations to all this (You made a mistake and I'm inexperienced) but together they really don't make me feel comfortable. For now I'm gonna trust you, but if the whole liggy mashi thing turns out the wrong way, you can guess who I'm going after.

Liggy:
I actually agree with you on all points about liggy, I've got nothing to add.

FSM:
I also agree that the Olimar wolfing makes FSM suspicious.

FSM - Guys, you know he's confirmed, right?  Well, not entirely, but his succession list is actually what killed Toby.  The only way he could be a wolf is if Olimar (whose succession list agreed with his) was also a wolf.  And if those two are wolves, then Toby would be a human or loner, and I'm pretty certain Toby was a wolf.  I also doubt Olimar would be wolfed as a wolf, since no one really suspected him anymore.  Also, it's very likely that if FSM is a wolf, TZP would be as well, because the wolves would have a free chance to become King, and why the heck would they pass it up?

It strikes me odd that you are defending FSM so much, even putting him lower on your suspicion list than TZP. Also, Thiannon pointed out that FSM isn't confirmed at all.

Bah, this list turned into a convoluted mess. So many players just aren't compatible as wolves together, which is obviously a good thing, but makes sorting through things difficult. Voting FSM for now.

Suspicion List:
2. FSM-Reapr - His call for suspicion lists looks like typical filler. His guard claim is specious, as well. As Davy points out, it's easy to fake, and worthwhle to do so as well, considering guards are a useful commodity. His declaration of his intent to use it in the thread was weird, too. Better to try to induce the block, no?  Yes, he defended Olimar, but wolves defend humans all the time. Also, Liggy tells me FSM may have received his succession list from Olimar, which kneecaps his primary defense. Something about FSM has been weird all game, though that might just be my being paranoid.

3. Liggy - I'm beginning to doubt his claim that he just needs to guess TZP's role to win, but TZP should just give it to him so he can then martyr himself (which he needs to do by N3 at the latest) and we can move past all this.

FSM:
I agree with you on all points about him.

Liggy:
I think Liggy lied about him being a third party, and I think he's a wolf and therefore TZP shouldn't sent his role to him.

Liggy - FireArrow's rabblerouser nature is becoming ridiculous at this point and I think we should stop barraging Liggy with accusations and start actually trying to search for Wolves.  Even if Liggy has overriding victory conditions, do you really think that he'll be able to accomplish them so quickly?  If you're concerned about Liggy, focus on him later and focus more on finding Wolves.

I think that you are a bit to sure that Liggy is a third party. Also, you defend him a lot. Now that I think about it, your behaviour makes sense if you are partnered with Liggy, because usually when you are sure that an LLF player is playing for the same team as you, you let him do the work, and you fade a bit to the background yourself.

After reading all of this, I think Liggy, FSM and Mashi are the wolves. They have eachother on the bottom of their suspicion list, and have defended eachother quite a bit.

NINJA'D.

FireArrow's suggestion of burning Fank's body is definately suspicious, but it strikes me more as an inexperienced human move than a wolf move. However, I'm keeping my eyes on you.

[Mashi]

Okay, so I have a concert today and have to leave at 6:15PM (why is the end of my senior school year so busy???) and I'll likely not return by the time the Phase ends.  I apologise that I haven't been as helpful as some of you may have expected, but hopefully things will wind down by the end of today.

Anyhow, everyone, you need to stop being so paranoid about Liggy and actually make an active effort.  If it turns out that Liggy isn't Human, I think it's fair to say that he's an overriding Third Party at the worst, seeing as no one supports him completely (and I highly doubt he would risk performing the gesture he did of organising the Houses if he were).  We should be focusing on finding Wolves; if Liggy is the center of the spotlight, we're going to lose the game because we didn't focus enough time on finding Wolves.  If Liggy truly is an overriding Third Party, let the Wolves take care of him.

Anyhow, since I haven't been paying nearly as much attention to the game as I should, I'm going with the copout suspicion and going to go for the inactives that I haven't seen in the chat or topic much; namely Bubbles7689, davy, Zunawe, and Yugi.  You all should come to the chat as soon as possible.

In the meantime, anyhow, safety on Zunawe.

[Mashi]

davy, you should come to the chat to discuss the lynch.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

FSM:
Are you sure you didn't mean less suspicious? I think the Olimar wolfing makes him more suspicious because I think he would have guarded Olimar. I don't actually see where FSM attacks liggy. Could you give me the quote?

I believe, from what TZP said, FSM and Olimar were the only people to send in succession lists. If Olimar had not been wolfed, I'd think that they were both wolves working together (and thus, their lists would be the fake ones, but Boy's would've been real).

However, that was before the possibility that FSM may have received his list from Olimar was brought up.


And, also, Davy: You say that "They have eachother on the bottom of their suspicion list, and have defended eachother quite a bit," but I believe that such a thing might be completely foolish for a wolf to do (unless they're using that as an "innocence strategy"). For example, one of my strategies as a wolf (although I've died rather early the times I was a wolf, I intended to carry out such a strategy) is to pretend as if I don't know who my partners are (communicating as little as possible during the day to avoid such "accidental influence"). This entails viewing them as I would as a human (e.g. judging them by their actions and putting them accordingly on my suspicion list).

[Liggy]

From the looks of this, it appears that I'm suffering from an idea that my good buddy Fiver (Thiannon here) came up with.

Basically, whenever I do something human, you all play it off as me being so good of a wolf that I'd do something like that as a wolf.  But if I do something characteristic of a dumb wolf, you play that off as me making a dumb wolf move.

For example, let's look at Davy's post.

I do something human:

I think it's quite plausible that you decided to safe Olimar to safe yourself and to enable you to lynch TBWCW.

I do something a dumb wolf would do:

They have eachother on the bottom of their suspicion list, and have defended eachother quite a bit.

I do something human:

Could be seizure man strategy.

I do something a dumb wolf would do:

bOlimar died last night after all, which would make sense if you are partnered with FSM, because that would mean you knew the chance that you would be able to kill him was pretty high.

tl;dr (is it really though?): If I was a good enough player that the "manti rule should apply" as davy said, (Which for the record, is absolutely pointless here.  I asked to be guarded Night 1, and said I was going to kill myself Night 2.  Both of the times the wolves would have expected that trying to kill me would've been a waste of a wolfing) why would I do such an obvious wolf tactic as having all three wolves defend each other?

In addition, I still think FSM posting that succession list is pretty good evidence for his humanity, and the only way he could be a wolf is if Olimar was a wolf or told him.  I doubt Olimar is a wolf, and if Olimar told him, then he (he being Olimar here) should have said something when we were lynching Toby based on his word.

Also, you said I could've dropped my lynch against Olimar to go after Toby.  So why did it take me until the end of the phase (pretty sure it was at least an entire day) in order to get Toby lynched?

Forgot if you guys know that Toby is TBWCW's nickname.  Oh well.

[Yugi]

wait I just noticed something

When we were discussing Firearrow, Orimar said this.

Okay, guys, I'm going to try something interesting.  I have an ability to prove one of us to be human. It is called Legacy, and basically, I gain a heart by pm-ing the host the name of a fellow Lannister. If they are not a Lannister, then I will lose a heart. Simple as that.

Sorry if you didn't want this known publicly, but FireArrow has shared with me that he also belongs to my house, the Lannister house. If this is true, then we have another confirmed human. Rejoice! But if I lose a heart, then I think we know who to lynch next.

And guess who died last night? You get three guesses and the first two don't count.

This could mean 3 things.

1) Firearrow is a wolf, who wolfed Orimar to keep him silent
2) A wolf wolfed olimar, so people could think it was Option 1)
3)This is all a coincidence and I'm getting paranoid over nothing.

I guess Firearrow for now.

[Bird]

Votes:

Yugi - FireArrow
Mashi - Zunawe
Liggy
BDS
davy - Liggy
Bubbles
Thiannon - FSM
Zunawe
FSM
TZP
FireArrow - Liggy

Fun stuff.

[FireArrow]

First of all, we shouldn't lynch FSM. His guarding power is easy to prove we just through a damaging ability at someone he's guarding. We could even through a fatal amount at him and say "if your human, you'll live and guard yourself, if your a wolf, you die."

The only way to prove liggy is human is to have liggy kill herself, which she seems very unwilling to do atm. I suggest we lynch liggy and then confirm that fsm is a human - remember, if we combine our abilities, we have an extra "lynch" at night.

Btw, FSM and liggy aren't compatible wolf partners. Fsm privately told me that he was VERY suspicious of liggy, though a wolf may publicly say he is suspicious of his wolf partner so people don't connect them, they would never do so privately.

[Liggy]

Also FireArrow for lack of better options.

[FireArrow]

wait I just noticed something

When we were discussing Firearrow, Orimar said this.And guess who died last night? You get three guesses and the first two don't count.

This could mean 3 things.

1) Firearrow is a wolf, who wolfed Orimar to keep him silent
2) A wolf wolfed olimar, so people could think it was Option 1)
3)This is all a coincidence and I'm getting paranoid over nothing.

I guess Firearrow for now.

To be honest, I actually think that Olimar was wolfed simply because he was a good target. There isn't really anything I can use to defend against this, however, there may be a way I can prove my humanity with my powers. I'll let you guys know if I can.

If it makes you any less suspicious of me, I think we should revive Olimar. His powers were extremely useful to the humans, but not so much to the wolves. I'd have to ask bird whether or not he gets his info before or after death though.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I have to leave at 5 PM (PST), but I'll be back at around 6 PM (PST)... I might not be back, though, until the phase end, so for the current moment:
Safety on Davy

As Liggy pointed out:

Basically, whenever I do something human, you all play it off as me being so good of a wolf that I'd do something like that as a wolf.  But if I do something characteristic of a dumb wolf, you play that off as me making a dumb wolf move.

I'm not confident enough to place a "full" vote before I leave, but I think that Davy's behavior is certainly something to look in to (and any other people who are behaving similarly).

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Ladies and gents, I'm really sorry I keep booking myself.  I only have a brief time here, but there are a couple things I need to say.

1) FireArrow is the lowest living person on my suspicion list right now.  No first-time wolf appears this human, and I've had pretty extensive communication with him.  Sorry FSM, you're not lowest.....

2).....you're actually first on my suspicion list.  You have said many things that are off this game, and I will be happy to share some pm's with the thread IF SOMEONE WILL SHOW ME HOW TO QUOTE A PM.  PLEASE.  You have not given any decisive proof of your humanity.  However, I can't devote the effort to leading a hard lynch against you right now.  If I'm right, I will most likely be wolfed tonight, since you've attached yourself to me more than anyone else.  If I'm wrong, YOU WILL GUARD ME TONIGHT.

3) Liggy, you're still pretty high on my list, but not as high as FSM.  Keep an eye on him, guys.

4) The person I'm voting for is Mashi.  FireArrow and FSM both know why.  Olimar literally said the night he died, "If I die, it was Mashi."  There's too much pointing to Big M to be ignored, including some stuff I can't take the time to write up right now.

Guys, I'm sorry, but I most likely won't be on the rest of the night.  HOWEVER: Because I have been paying too little attention to the game, I am choosing not to triple my vote on Mashi, because I want you guys to work this out.  Gtg now.  Good luck friends.

[FireArrow]

TZP, I just copy-paste the PMs into a spoiler tags.

Changing my vote to Mashi. TZP, I would recommend making your vote 3, not enough people are going to log in between now and the end of the phase.