TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[Liggy]

Suspicion list:

Most Suspicious Tier:

FireArrow - He's really aggressive.  He suspected me as a wolf since the very beginning of Day 1, and never changed his suspicion.  At all.  In over 100 hours of playing.  To add to that, his first suspicion of me was really shoddy, and he's never willing to admit that he's wrong.

Don't Know! Tier:

BDS - He's either a wolf or BDS.  According to the player list, he's BDS.  I'll have to confirm that later.  (More seriously, he doesn't really seem to be doing a great job at finding wolves, but from what I hear that's BDS for you.)

davy - Only for striking me as more passive than the people below.

Yugi, Bubbles, Zunawe - Who?  You're all either inactive or passive.  Passivity is worse than inactivity, but both are worse than playing.

Shouldn't Be Lynched Yet Tier:

Mashi - Typical performance.  In this tier because he's a good player, and lynching those this early with no evidence isn't really a good idea, especially when there's so many better candidates.

Thiannon - See above, except Mashi scares me a bit more of a wolf.  Probably because I can't remember the last time Thiannon was a wolf.

Likely Human Tier:

TZP - Being King isn't confirmed human, but it's the best we got.

FSM - Guys, you know he's confirmed, right?  Well, not entirely, but his succession list is actually what killed Toby.  The only way he could be a wolf is if Olimar (whose succession list agreed with his) was also a wolf.  And if those two are wolves, then Toby would be a human or loner, and I'm pretty certain Toby was a wolf.  I also doubt Olimar would be wolfed as a wolf, since no one really suspected him anymore.  Also, it's very likely that if FSM is a wolf, TZP would be as well, because the wolves would have a free chance to become King, and why the heck would they pass it up?

Liggy - Hi!

Also, throwing this out there:

Spoiler

[2013-06-02 22:06:24] <Liggy> well it sucks
[2013-06-02 22:06:28] <Liggy> because evidently
[2013-06-02 22:06:32] <Liggy> my loner lied to me
[2013-06-02 22:06:35] <Liggy> and I want him dead now
[2013-06-02 22:06:48] <TZP> Fine then, who was your loner?
[2013-06-02 22:06:49] <totesnotFSM> who is he?
[2013-06-02 22:06:52] <Liggy> Toby.
[2013-06-02 22:06:53] <totesnotFSM> ninja'd
[2013-06-02 22:06:58] <totesnotFSM> CALLED IT
[2013-06-02 22:07:01] <Liggy> no
[2013-06-02 22:07:04] <Liggy> you called it as mashi
[2013-06-02 22:07:08] <totesnotFSM> shhhhh
[2013-06-02 22:07:10] <totesnotFSM>
[2013-06-02 22:07:11] <Liggy> yes, it was obviously toby
[2013-06-02 22:07:14] <Liggy> but still
[2013-06-02 22:07:18] <Liggy> you were certain it was mashi
[2013-06-02 22:07:23] <Thiannon> FSM you need to save your looking good for the post-game.
[2013-06-02 22:07:27] <Thiannon> So wait, how did Toby lie?
[2013-06-02 22:07:36] <Liggy> gave me the wrong succession list
[2013-06-02 22:07:37] <Liggy> twice!
[2013-06-02 22:08:36] <Olimar12345> Won't tell a confirmed human alone, but will tell everyone in a huge group chat. Where is the sense? xD
[2013-06-02 22:08:45] <Liggy> well
[2013-06-02 22:08:49] <Liggy> you aren't confirmed anymore
[2013-06-02 22:08:51] <Liggy> so have fun
[2013-06-02 22:08:53] <Mashi> Back for now.
[2013-06-02 22:09:07] <Olimar12345> Whatevs, I know I'm human.
[2013-06-02 22:09:12] <Mashi> wait what happened
[2013-06-02 22:09:13] <TZP> Liggy, I'm retracting my triple vote on you for now.  I'm still suspicious of you, but I just had a major snafu and thought you had claimed Varys.
[2013-06-02 22:09:28] <Liggy> no
[2013-06-02 22:09:34] <Liggy> that's what Toby claimed though!
[2013-06-02 22:09:40] <totesnotFSM> TOBY
[2013-06-02 22:09:43] <BlackDragonSlayer> I'll be back in a few minutes...
[2013-06-02 22:09:48] <totesnotFSM> DIDN'T BECOME KING
[2013-06-02 22:09:54] <totesnotFSM> THAT MEANS
[2013-06-02 22:09:58] <totesnotFSM> HE'S A WOLF

[close]

I told people Toby's name before I knew that claiming Varys means he's a wolf, and I really didn't know that claiming Varys was an automatic wolf until after I said Toby claimed it.  After all, TZP thought I claimed Varys and didn't immediately try to rush a lynch on me.

[FireArrow]

FireArrow - He's really aggressive.  He suspected me as a wolf since the very beginning of Day 1, and never changed his suspicion.  At all.  In over 100 hours of playing.  To add to that, his first suspicion of me was really shoddy, and he's never willing to admit that he's wrong.

Actually, I was wrong. fank is probably human, and I did change my suspicion of the 3rd wolf  from him to Yugi.

Anyways, since when has day 1 aggression ever been a sign of a wolf? I mean, seriously? If I were a wolf, I wouldn't draw so much attention to my self for some stupid theory that no ones probably gonna believe.

[Liggy]

If you were a human, why would you draw attention to yourself with some stupid theory no one is going to believe.

There's a good chance the same answer would work if you were a wolf.  Either a reason exists, and you have a reason for doing it as a wolf, or it doesn't, in which case we don't have to worry about reconciling it with you being a wolf, because you just acted irrationally.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Liggy, I just want to point something out. Just because someone's suspicion list matched another's. A wolf could completely have a succession list, listed in one of their fake roles.

[Thiannon]

Bah, this list turned into a convoluted mess. So many players just aren't compatible as wolves together, which is obviously a good thing, but makes sorting through things difficult. Voting FSM for now.

Suspicion List:

1. The Boy Who Cried Wolf - I see no reason for him to give off a fake succession list as a human. It's possible he was a third party (and this possibility shouldn't be overlooked), but that third party can't be Varys or Margaery, which leaves few options (Theon?).

2. FSM-Reapr - His call for suspicion lists looks like typical filler. His guard claim is specious, as well. As Davy points out, it's easy to fake, and worthwhle to do so as well, considering guards are a useful commodity. His declaration of his intent to use it in the thread was weird, too. Better to try to induce the block, no?  Yes, he defended Olimar, but wolves defend humans all the time. Also, Liggy tells me FSM may have received his succession list from Olimar, which kneecaps his primary defense. Something about FSM has been weird all game, though that might just be my being paranoid.

3. Liggy - I'm beginning to doubt his claim that he just needs to guess TZP's role to win, but TZP should just give it to him so he can then martyr himself (which he needs to do by N3 at the latest) and we can move past all this.

4. Yugi - Virtually every post he's made (I went back twenty pages) has been less than one line long. Literally. His last two posts have just been to defend Liggy. There's also this:

Note to players, Marytrship is when something happens a few phases after you die, normally a kill or revive.

He worded it to sound like it's knowledge he's gleaned from past games, and that's my experience as well, but where did he get this knowledge? Have there been other martyr-like roles on NSM? Otherwise this just sound like more Liggy defending--and as if he has actual insight into Liggy's role. If Liggy's a wolf, Yugi is almost certainly his partner.

5. Mashi - His defense post Day 1 went a little overboard, I think, particularly with the "meta"-ing at the beginning. He and FSM have been going at it pretty good, too. If FSM isn't a wolf, I think Mashi is a good candidate.

Just want to say that a fank009 wolfing isn't something I would do and anyone who recognises how my Night 1 wolfings go should know that I've only ever deviated from my TWG etiquette once or twice out of maybe a hundred or so games (and those were under serious exception).

Also, wasn't the purpose of PMing our Houses to Liggy for them to be secret?  Wouldn't publicly revealing them defeat the purpose?  If publicly revealing them were the plan all along, we wouldn't need Liggy as a medium; we would just claim in the thread.  I don't really have any serious problems with claiming to the thread, as I'm hoping for us all to be able to work together to find the Wolves and not use our powers to backstab each other.

FireArrow, I've never asked people to claim their Houses to me, not sure where you've found that idea.  In regard to your theory, I'm afraid it's filled with holes.  For one thing, wolfing fank009 on Night 1 when he's not even in danger of being lynched is simply a ludicrous action to perform on Night 1.  Although Liggy and I have both wolfed a Wolf Partner of ours before, both instances did not work out nearly as well as planned and both instances were acts of desperation.

In addition, I find that Liggy seems Human due to his candor, and the fact that he's willing to commit martyrdom for us.  And, although my intuition on him has been wrong once before, I'm sensing that he's Human.  Of course, based on the last game I've played with him, I'm rather skeptical of that as well and will still be wary of him.

Anyhow, Liggy's posted my message to him on Skype already, but I'm currently eating gratuitous amounts of food, so I'll probably only be able to be contacted late at night to discuss the game.  I'm currently a bit inclined to concur with Liggy's suspicion of Olimar12345, but FireArrow brings up information that I feel supports his humanity, so I'm unsure of my position towards him.

I'll be in the chat now, if anyone's up at 2:24AM!!!

6. BlackDragonSlayer - Like Bubbles below him, he hasn't contributed much, but he's actually posted quite a bit, including this bizarre post in which he debates whether he should post a suspicion list:

But, urrrrr... when's the last game that I made an actual suspicion list... (I'm not trying to use that as an excuse or anything)

This sounds like he's trying to act human (i.e. matching his previous behaviour) more than trying to catch wolves (by actually posting a suspicion list). He'd be higher in my list, but others have insisted this is the way he usually acts (I really only remember his play from the previous game in which he was king).

7. Zunawe - Who?? Needs to post more, or he's shooting right up my list. Unlike Bubbles, I don't think he has a history of (relative) inactivity; can anyone confirm this?

8. Bubbles - Hasn't contributed much, but this seems to be textbook human Bubbles (and wolf-Bubbles, mind you).

9. davy - Looks like human Davy to me.

10. FireArrow - He was my pick for the D1 lynch before Boy's deception came out, but reviewing the past couple phases, I really don't think his behaviour matches that of a first-time player-wolf. He's missed the mark a lot, but he's also said a lot I agree with. He also spotted the fact that Boy's fake list could have been given to him in a fake role (i.e. Varys), which was helpful.

11. TheZeldaPianist275 - I find it highly unlikely the wolves would have been both willing and able to seize the throne Day 1, particularly as Boy didn't seem to know the actual chain of succession.

12. Olimar12345 - Wolfed D2. 

13. fank009 - Wolfed D1. I asked Bird and he said that corpse burning isn't the only way to remove a player from the game, so it stands to reason the wolves did this.

14. Thiannon - Little-known fact about me: my uncle is reclusive 70s pop singer (of "Lowdown" and "Lido Shuffle") Boz Scaggs. The more you know!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

6. BlackDragonSlayer - Like Bubbles below him, he hasn't contributed much, but he's actually posted quite a bit, including this bizarre post in which he debates whether he should post a suspicion list:

But, urrrrr... when's the last game that I made an actual suspicion list... (I'm not trying to use that as an excuse or anything)

This sounds like he's trying to act human (i.e. matching his previous behaviour) more than trying to catch wolves (by actually posting a suspicion list). He'd be higher in my list, but others have insisted this is the way he usually acts (I really only remember his play from the previous game in which he was king).

I think you're missing the part where I say "I'm not trying to use that as an excuse or anything." I wasn't debating whether or not I should make a suspicion list: I was making a statement about suspicion lists.
If anything, though, you might have better used my post below it to say that I was trying to delay posting a suspicion list as much as possible (though, it WAS 1:53 AM).

[Thiannon]

I didn't think that was suspicious; I felt the same way last night. But "I'm not trying to make an excuse or anything" is what you say immediately before you make an excuse.

[Zunawe]

I think you're missing the part where I say "I'm not trying to use that as an excuse or anything." I wasn't debating whether or not I should make a suspicion list: I was making a statement about suspicion lists.
If anything, though, you might have better used my post below it to say that I was trying to delay posting a suspicion list as much as possible (though, it WAS 1:53 AM).

The fact that you felt that you needed to make a statement about suspicion lists doesn't really help (or even change) the effect of the post. Some of your posts seem to have unnecessary content. Whether that's your personality or an attempt at seeming active without contributing isn't something I can discern.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Guys, I'm really sorry, but I can't make my list tonight.  Almost certainly tomorrow, and I'll definitely weigh in on the lynch.

[FireArrow]

If you were a human, why would you draw attention to yourself with some stupid theory no one is going to believe.

There's a good chance the same answer would work if you were a wolf.  Either a reason exists, and you have a reason for doing it as a wolf, or it doesn't, in which case we don't have to worry about reconciling it with you being a wolf, because you just acted irrationally.

I'm human, so I can tell you exactly why I did it. I was convinced that fank was a wolf, and that was about the only way to explain it. In hindsight, it seems really stupid, but at the time I thought I was a genius. Additionally, I really wanted to believe that  the wolves had some awesome plan - and I still do. I'll be really disappointed in post game if the wolves just sat their doing everyday wolf plays rather then taking advantage of this being a mystery game with crazy powers.

Would that argument work as a wolf? No, it wouldn't. If I were going to be an aggressive wolf, I would probably shoot for something more believable, whereas if I were a human, I would simply post who I believed was human. Which makes more sense for that theory?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The fact that you felt that you needed to make a statement about suspicion lists doesn't really help (or even change) the effect of the post. Some of your posts seem to have unnecessary content. Whether that's your personality or an attempt at seeming active without contributing isn't something I can discern.

If you think it doesn't change the effect of the post, then you're not understanding what I just said about the post... you're seeming to think that I was using it as an excuse, which would be the only reasonable explanation for why you're "concerned" about the post in the first place (aside from merely trying to seem like you're being "observant," coughcough ).

And also, you say that some of my posts have "unnecessary content," and yet, that was mostly earlier in the game (especially during Night 1), if you'll read over my posts from the game (I did a quick search by going through my posts from my profile and searching "CTRL + F" for "TWG 54"). However, it depends on what you classify as "unnecessary" or "contributive."

[FSM-Reapr]

Guys, if you go to the beginning of Night 2, you can clearly see that I used one of my powers.

*posting on 3DS so can't make a big post atm*

[Mashi]

I feel asleep early last night and need to finish this and do an English project and ioeuri wegtriwar2389t5r38927tr43w

Yugi - I don't recall ever speaking to you (or, to be honest, your even being) in this game.  Come to the chat more if you haven't already!
Mashi - I am a super Wolf.
Liggy - FireArrow's rabblerouser nature is becoming ridiculous at this point and I think we should stop barraging Liggy with accusations and start actually trying to search for Wolves.  Even if Liggy has overriding victory conditions, do you really think that he'll be able to accomplish them so quickly?  If you're concerned about Liggy, focus on him later and focus more on finding Wolves.
BlackDragonSlayer - He's actually playing quite logically and is tact in his remarks and I'm quite proud!!!
davy - Haven't seen much of him.
Bubbles7689 - Haven't seen much of her.
Thiannon - The wolfings that have occurred are definitely of the type I would expect from you.  We need to have a srs bsnss discussion sometime today!!!  Also, my post about the wolfing isn't metaing; if you look at any game where I claim that a wolfing was made that I wouldn't make myself, I would always be Human.  I only make wolfings on my close friends or new Players when there's serious exception and I don't use the wolfing courtesy defence if such exceptions occur.  I thought you knew this about me by now, Thiannon!!!
Zunawe - Haven't seen much of him, but he's been showing up to the chat recently and I expect to chat with him eventually.
fank009 - Wolfed.
Olimar12345 - Wolfed.
FSM-Reapr - Seems Human so far from chats I've had with him, but I haven't really been able to have a detailed discourse with him about the game yet.
TheZeldaPianist275 -
FireArrow - His arguments are beginning to become so ridiculously dumb that I think he just might be Human now.  Also:
Zunawe Why would somebody burn fank?
 Fire not because I said to or anything
 Fire I was trying to convince everybody I still believed my theory
 Fire Eff mashi is still here
 Fire go away
 Fire shoo

So were you the one who burnt fank009's body?  Or did you take a hand in causing it?  For future reference, if you're a Human and somehow indirectly or directly cause it, it's generally a bad idea to make reckless decisions like this without the consent of the other Players.  Not to say that you shouldn't play independently, but try to have public approval for things of this nature.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf - Lynched.  Unless I'm missing something, I'm paranoid of his being a Human who made a bunch of mistakes than a Wolf willfully lying.

[Yugi]

I can get into the chat tomorrow if you want.

[FireArrow]

So were you the one who burnt fank009's body?  Or did you take a hand in causing it?  For future reference, if you're a Human and somehow indirectly or directly cause it, it's generally a bad idea to make reckless decisions like this without the consent of the other Players.  Not to say that you shouldn't play independently, but try to have public approval for things of this nature.

No, I said publicly that someone should burn fanks body because even if he isn't a wolf, then the wolves can't get their hands on him. I didn't expect anyone to actually listen, but I guess we can breath safely knowing that the wolves don't have access to a double revive.