TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[Liggy]

And by last night I mean two nights ago.

[FireArrow]

Should I make a "new and improved" suspicion list? Nah, I don't feel like it. I may make a large post later though.

[davy]

Can Someone tell me why TBWCW was lynched?

[FireArrow]

Can Someone tell me why TBWCW was lynched?

He supposedly claimed varys (?) to liggy, however, if that were true, he would be king right now. He also lied to liggy about the succession list.

In hindsight though, he probably got the list from his false role, which can have false information. We're also assuming that liggy didn't make this up to avoid getting lynched.

[FSM-Reapr]

Btw, I didn't use my guarding power last night because I was sure the wolves weren't going to wolf TZP or me after I had said I would use it!

I'll use it Night 3 instead, I promise!!!

[davy]

SUSPICION LIST TIME!

Likely wolves:

1. Liggy
Firstly, you said you would be activating your matyr power last night phase. He didn't. You're not going to get away with that this easy. Seccondly, you said you didn't activate your power last night phase, because you hadn't had a reply from TZP yet. However, I noticed TZP didn't post during the night phase at all, and hasn't posted this day phase eighter, while he has posted in the birthday topic. This gives me the feeling that (at least one of) the White Walkers has/have silencing powers. If they have it, they probably didn't used it day 1 so that the chance that we would notice they have it would be smaller. Additionally, the reason why you weren't lynched was due to a chat provided by yourself. It's possible that you faked it, although that would be unlikely as it was such a huge chat. More likely is that you faked the username to frame TBWCW, while keeping yourself safe. Also, he posted the chat at 02:20AM TBWCW's timezone, which means that TBWCW probably wasn't going to defend himself anyway.

2. FSM-Reapr
Although you did gave an excuse for not using your guardian power last night phase, I still think it's suspicious. Also, guadian powers are the easiest powers to fake as a wolf, especially if it's one-time use. Additionally, both of your posts containing claiming ideas are, although you defended yourself against it, still suspicious.

Not sure:

3. Zunawe
You're being way more silent than I remember from XXXIV and XL. Nothing else to go on atm.

4. Bubbles
Due to your inactivity in the most recent games, I forgot what your playstyle was, so it'd be better to keep an eye on you.

5. Mashi
Mashi is here because lately his playstyle is making few but long posts, which is what he is doing right now, but I know he can do better, so I hope he will.

6. The Boy Who Cried Wolf
If liggy is human, you are a third party/wolf, if liggy is a wolf you are a human. That's all I can say about you.

7. Yugi/BlackDragonSlayer/Thiannon
All of you are playing according to the playstyle I know of you.

10. FireArrow
You have been very active and productive, which I always like about other players, and usually indicates that they are human.

Likely Humans:

11. Olimar12345
While he was alive, there was already evidence for you pointing towards humanity, and I don't think you would have been wolf'd if you were a wolf.

12. fank009
Wolves wouldn't have burned your body if you were a wolf, and I see no reason why a human would burn it.

13. K-NiGhT TheZeldaPianist275
If the information I have is correct, the first player to sit on the throne is guaranteed to be a human.

14. shadowkirby davy
Hi

[Zunawe]

3. Zunawe
You're being way more silent than I remember from XXXIV and XL. Nothing else to go on atm.

Not to just make excuses, but my posts per day have dropped in general over time. I'm spending less time on NSM overall, and that may be what you're noticing.

Going from most suspicious to least suspicious.

FSM-Reapr - I know people don't like behavior-based logic, but I'm still going to say that my impression of you is influencing my thoughts. Along with that, you have yet to prove that any of your powers are even real.

Yugi - You don't seem to be posting relevant information when it comes to big issues. That could be paranoia making you feel like it's dangerous to even put your name on a controversial idea, which I guess could go for both a wolf and a human, but I think a human would be more inclined to contribute his/her beliefs to the thread rather than keeping out of everything.

Liggy - The more I think about the people who have died, the more it points to people with information. The person with the most information publicly is you. Like FSM, you haven't proven that your powers are real, and if you're making a giant bluff, you will have gotten a lot of information and killed multiple people before you died. However, some of your actions would be odd if you were a wolf. Let's say you are, you gave up on lynching Olimar to have a chance at getting TBWCW killed. That seems ridiculous for a wolf. Therefore, I am unsure at the moment.

Mashi - Unless you've changed your playstyle, you generally like to analyze everybody major and you're usually a leading player. I know you said you had things to do earlier in the game, but I still think you would have spent some time openly contributing to debates in the thread. You seem slightly suspicious, but I'm not going to put anything on you.

BDS/Thiannon - I'd like to say I can analyze something about you two, but really I don't see anything. For the most part, you post when you have something to say, but you haven't said anything drastic. I'm unsure.

Bubbles - You don't have the inactivity of a wolf, but you don't exactly post a lot. You're better than Yugi, but there's not much to go on.

FireArrow - You have drawn a lot of attention to yourself and revealed a lot that most of the other people here have kept hidden, and either that makes you a reckless wolf, or a truthful human. I personally believe it's the latter.

[Liggy]

TZP refused to co-operate in the chat, so if the wolves have a silencing power it's his fault for refusing to co-operate to begin with.

My reasoning for not using the martyr power is as such: I'd rather be alive than dead, regardless of what people think of me.  My plan was for TZP to co-operate, and I wouldn't have to do anything else.  But he didn't.  And it stikes me as really stupid to kill myself for no good reason.  It really doesn't prove my humanity if no one is injured, and no one will revive me because someone will come up with an insane theory that I wolfed myself to seem human.

That said, I'm not going to get lynched without a fight, and I'd like to point I've been actively helping the human team more than most other people in the game, especially Olimar, who I'm sure most would agree was rather human.

For those who are keeping score:

• I organized everyone's house together, facilitating the use of productive powers.
• I cleared a player, nearly confirming his humanity.
• I revealed the name of a wolf.

At this rate, if I continued playing like this, I'd be more detrimental to the wolves alive even if I was a wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

SUSPICION LIST TIME. Debatably better than Pizza Time (ok, maybe I'm wrong here), but not better than Waluigi Time!

1: Liggy; Although Boy could've easily been a wolf, his final post (I don't think it's there anymore...? :S) seems to cast a bit of doubt, although it could've easily been done to confuse the remaining humans. Needless to say, although this (and other behaviours) does not necessarily mean that you're a wolf, it's certainly quite suspicious.

2: FSM-Reapr; Had Olimar not been wolfed, you'd probably be a lot more suspicious, along with Olimar. Although I feel as if that is point in your favor, one must still factor in your "jumping in" on FireArrow's earlier accusations of Liggy, which seem more like a wolf trying to get into a bandwagon before it might become one than FireArrow's intentions (as described below).

3: Mashi; Simply up here because you're more suspicious than the people below you, but less suspicious than the people above you to a significant degree.

4: Yugi; Although Zunawe said that "You don't seem to be posting relevant information when it comes to big issues," which is true, you also did that last game, as I recall (which could easily be a strategy of deception in this game, however).

5: Zunawe; As Davy points out, you are being quite silent, but you do have a reasonable excuse for that (or at least seem to).

6: Thiannon; At the current point, there isn't much of an indication of anything with him, really.

7: davy; As you replaced shadowkirby rather recently, and haven't posted too much, there isn't exactly a lot to go on. This means that you're not too suspicious, but I hope to see some more posts in upcoming phases (and this phase especially).

8: Bubbles; I agree with Zunawe, who said "You don't have the inactivity of a wolf, but you don't exactly post a lot." The problem with semi-inactive humans is that you usually can't tell much from them.

9: FireArrow; You seem like a human who's trying to help, but as I mentioned earlier to Mashi, "trying too hard," although that's not always a bad thing.

10: TheZeldaPianist275; I really doubt that he'd be a wolf.

11: BlackDragonSlayer; I don't think he can be trusted...


tl;dr version
People 1-3 have been acting somewhat suspicious, to varying degrees.
People 4-8 are people I would like to see be more active during this game, as we could probably more easily sort through the humans and the wolves if they were active.
People 9-11 are, at the current moment, not suspicious, in my opinion.

[FireArrow]

May as well update this because my thoughts have changed a bit since yesterday. Just to tell you guys, I let go of my theory about halfway through day one because me and Olimar were on a new lead, however, I pretended to still believe so the wolves wouldn't know. Now that Olimar is dead though, I'm not sure if I should tell you guys (you probably won't take me too seriously anyways.)

1. Liggy: Yes, you have helped us a bit, but every single thing you did would make sense to do if you were a wolf. As I've already explained, the fank wolfing makes a ton of sense for you to do. You get to kill a powerful role while framing it on Olimar. Boy never lied about the suspicion list either, I just realized this, but his false role probably had a false list (false roles can have false knowledge, read the second post peeps!) If you could make up a story about him claiming Varys, then you avoid getting lynched while killing a human with a multiple use seer power (as shown by the logs you posted.)  I'm still not sure who to believe on this part.

Anything you've done to prove your humanity could easily be turned around as evidence to you being a wolf.

2. Mashi:

 Like before, if liggy is a wolf, then I'm certain you are as well. You've admitted to having lots of communication with him (yay, I said him) which, if liggy was human, wouldn't be suspicious at all. However, if liggy is a wolf (which is pretty likely), it wouldn't make sense for you to trust him so much if you were human as you seem like a good enough player to not let someone pull one over on you like that. To top it off, your attitude towards him is very wolfish. Day one, you said "I'm not certain of his humanity, but I don't think we should wolf him yet!" However, when he was in danger of being lynched, your attitude went from "idk" to "I trust him completely don't do it!" Last night, you and liggy were talking as if you were in an alliance and when I asked your opinion on a liggy lynch, you were like "no wai gurl!"

3. Yugi:

Like Zunawe said, you keep your feet out of hot water. You completely avoid big situations and post useless little plans that you never really follow up on. The ONE time you commented on important things was you saying "lets let liggy live, he seems useful." Yeah, not suspicious at all.

4. FSM:

I trusted you before, but now I don't know. You knew that Olimar was gonna seer someone last night and how vital that was (if it came back wolf, we pretty much found all three wolves.) Then, after Olimar dies, you just kinda cut me off from communication except to ask my powers. If you were a wolf, it would make sense if you didn't want me influencing TZP. Sure, there are reasonable explanations to all this (You made a mistake and I'm inexperienced) but together they really don't make me feel comfortable. For now I'm gonna trust you, but if the whole liggy mashi thing turns out the wrong way, you can guess who I'm going after.

My opinions on everyone else haven't changed. Davey has been too inactive for me to judge him, and from what I can see, Zunawe seems very human. tzp is totes a wuff

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Guys, I'm sorry I just disappeared.  I have so much hw with so little time to do it.  I will try to do whatever I can whenever I can.  And I definitely need to make a suspicion list because of some new things I've thought of.

[Zunawe]

Appending my list because I forgot TZP and davy.

davy - Basically the same as BDS and Thiannon, though you seem to be taking a strong stance against Liggy, which puts you at the opposite end of the spectrum. It depends on what Liggy turns out to be.

TZP - You're basically a confirmed human as far as I can tell. There's a very low chance that the wolves guessed out of 22 roles which one would be king.

[Bubbles]

I actually thought I was being more active this game. I've been in the chat and everything :|

[FireArrow]

I actually thought I was being more active this game. I've been in the chat and everything :|

You were really inactive at the start, but you kinda picked up your act at the end of day one. Remember, active doesn't mean being in chat and posting in the thread, it means actively trying to find the wolves!

[Bubbles]

well how do you know im not seekritly doing that