TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm really not liking the idea of lynching FSM, sure, he said some weird things, but there are people who we have more evidence against.

Like against me, because I'm me.

But really, deciding who to lynch is no laughing matter. This IS Day 1, but we always have to be careful!

[FireArrow]

Like against me, because I'm me.

But really, deciding who to lynch is no laughing matter. This IS Day 1, but we always have to be careful!

Yes, you, but I'm actually referring to liggy (if you don't believe my crazy theory, read the second argument, it's much more down to earth.)

We have somewhat decent evidence against you, and a whole ton against liggy (the only way to explain her humanity would be to call the fank wolfing a coincidence, which I don't find too likely.)

[FireArrow]

EDIT to the post above: HIS HIS HIS

>.>

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Yes, you, but I'm actually referring to liggy (if you don't believe my crazy theory, read the second argument, it's much more down to earth.)

We have somewhat decent evidence against you, and a whole ton against liggy (the only way to explain his humanity would be to call the fank wolfing a coincidence, which I don't find too likely.)

Anybody could've wolfed Fank if they knew he wasn't a wolf (or even if he was, but I highly doubt that they would've done such a risky move so early in the game, with little to no purpose/reward). Whoever wolfed him probably didn't want to find out too much about what he's like as a human (or just used a randomizer to pick the Night 1 wolfing).

[FireArrow]

Anybody could've wolfed Fank if they knew he wasn't a wolf (or even if he was, but I highly doubt that they would've done such a risky move so early in the game, with little to no purpose/reward). Whoever wolfed him probably didn't want to find out too much about what he's like as a human (or just used a randomizer to pick the Night 1 wolfing).

By the way you replied, I don't think you understand either of my arguments.

[Olimar12345]

I would support a Liggy lynch.

I do forgive you for nearly condemning me a few pages back, btw. This hasn't the slightest thing to do with grudges. The reason why is that you lied to me. You said that if I didn't post the rest of that chat log, you'd tell me who you used the insight on me. Since you have yet to tell me, here it is.

Spoiler

15:01   Olimar12345   So you're back now, Liggy?
15:01   Liggy   I literally was just using the bathroom
15:01   Liggy   and getting tylenol
15:01   Liggy   (No sauce, I'm not tylenol lannister)
15:02   Olimar12345   usually people post "going afk" or "brb" or some shit
15:02   Liggy   I don't sometimes
15:03   Liggy   because it's not like you need to know every single one of my habits
15:03   Olimar12345   and I don't. but we were having a conversation. just the two of us.
15:03   Olimar12345   What else was I supposed to think?
15:04   Liggy   that I was back
15:04   Liggy   when I responed
15:04   Liggy   and then you left
15:04   Olimar12345   I had other tabs open, and fyi, tinychat happened to crash my browser.
15:05   Liggy   ok
15:05   Olimar12345   if you don;t believe me, go to my tinychat and ask them. Hang on, I'll get the link....
15:05   Olimar12345   http://tinychat.com/olimar12345

15:05   Olimar12345   pw: Olimarisawesome
15:05   Olimar12345   totes not stole from concerto xD
15:06   Liggy   I really don't need to check
15:06   Olimar12345   well it's there if you want it.
15:07   Liggy   anyways
15:07   Liggy   confirmation is complete
15:07   Liggy   you're a human!!!
15:07   Olimar12345   yeah, IK.
15:07   Olimar12345   But what about you.
15:07   Liggy   I'm one too.
15:08   Olimar12345   14:36 Olimar12345 So you told this person, whom you knew powers of, to use their power for your bidding, AND trusted that they wouldn't lie to you? 14:37 Olimar12345 That's quite a lot of trust, you know? 14:37 Olimar12345 sound awfully suspicious, huh?
15:08   Olimar12345   care to pick up where we left off?
15:08   Liggy   uh
15:08   Liggy   I believe we with left off with this:
15:08   Liggy   [15:48:06 EST] bird
15:08   Liggy   [15:48:07 EST] Liggy we made a pact
15:09   Liggy   [15:48:08 EST] bird Hi everyone.
15:09   Liggy   [15:48:10 EST] Liggy he has something I want
15:09   Liggy   [15:48:14 EST] Liggy I have something he does!
15:09   Liggy   btw
15:09   Liggy   this guy is a third party
15:10   Olimar12345   I don't see the relevance of those quotes.
15:11   Olimar12345   third party? So your source is neither wolf nor human? o_o
15:12   Liggy   oh he's human
15:12   Liggy   he just doesn't have a house alliance
15:12   Liggy   I'm technically a third party
15:12   Olimar12345   House alliances seem unimportant atm.
15:13   Olimar12345   And so you both are "third parties"?
15:14   Olimar12345   another bathroom break?
15:15   Liggy   no
15:15   Liggy   I was doing something else
15:15   Liggy   jeez
15:15   Liggy   Neither of us have house allegiances, yes.
15:16   Olimar12345   no chat etiquette! lol.
15:16   Olimar12345   so was that enough to trust him?
15:16   Olimar12345   because you were asking a lot.
15:17   Olimar12345   and in a game like this, that kind of trust stands out as "peculiar".
15:18   Olimar12345   ...or, wolfish.
15:18   Liggy   but
15:18   Liggy   he has proven that he's not a human
15:18   Liggy   sorry
15:18   Liggy   not a wolf
15:19   Olimar12345   howso?
15:19   Liggy   because he's provided me details on his role
15:19   Liggy   and those details have proven accurate?
15:19   Olimar12345   I provided Fank with details, too.
15:19   Olimar12345   wait, how do you mean, sccureate?
15:19   Olimar12345   *accurate
15:19   Liggy   I mean
15:20   Liggy   he told me stuff
15:20   Liggy   and I verified that the stuff was true
15:20   Olimar12345   okay
15:20   Olimar12345   well...
15:20   Olimar12345   how would you expect to explain that to the others?
15:21   Olimar12345   it's very vague..
15:21   Liggy   wtf
15:21   Liggy   how is that vague
15:21   Liggy   he told me stuff that he would only know if he had that role
15:21   Liggy   and that information was correct
15:23   Olimar12345   How would you know if it as correct?
15:24   Olimar12345   and how would you know that he'd only know that if it was one of his roles? Surely there are people sharing roles out there, you know.
15:24   Liggy   because no one is stupid enough to do that
15:25   Liggy   and because I've verified it in other ways
15:25   Liggy   answered questions in reverse order, sorry
15:25   Olimar12345   hm. But I bet you won't share those q/a's with me, huh?
15:26   Olimar12345   even though you know I am a human.
15:26   Liggy   out of the safety of the other guy, nope
15:26   Liggy   just because you're human doesn't mean I trust you to keep quiet
15:27   Liggy   you posted the last log to the thread
15:27   Liggy   and it didn't prove anything
15:27   Liggy   and I seriously suspect you're going to post this one
15:27   Olimar12345   yeah, I probably will.
15:27   Liggy   so why the heck should I tell you here?
15:27   bird   lol
15:29   Olimar12345   hm, yes, this is a predicament. But until I can trust you, I'm still in support of lynching you.
15:29   Liggy   for what reason?
15:29   Liggy   olimar
15:29   Liggy   if I was a wolf
15:29   Olimar12345   You still seem too suspicious to keep alive, imo.
15:29   Liggy   why the heck would I confirm you as human
15:29   Liggy   I would've just shut up
15:30   Liggy   and still kept on lynching you
15:30   Olimar12345   True.
15:30      *** spit joined #twgnsm
15:30   Olimar12345   However, I still don't see that as enough evidence to believe you.
15:31   bird   hi spit
15:31   spit   hey bird
15:31   Liggy   er
15:32   Liggy   I really don't see how I can unconvince if you're that steadfast.
15:33   Olimar12345   A wolf might want me to trust them after saving me like that, like a life "debt kind" of thing. Your chats with this other "third party" guy are still too suspicious.
15:33   Olimar12345   "How could I not trust him after saving me like that?"
15:34   Liggy   olimar
15:34   Olimar12345   Until you shed some light on this "third party" deal, I have no reason to trust you.
15:34   Liggy   heck no
15:34   Liggy   you'll just get him killed!
15:35   Olimar12345   I already think I know who it is, anyway.
15:35   Olimar12345   I'll ask them.
15:35   Liggy   (it's not Fire Arrow)
15:35   Liggy   (good guess though)
15:36      *** spit quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)

15:37   Olimar12345   nah, it couldn't be firearrow.
15:37   Olimar12345   could it?
15:37   Olimar12345   hmm.
15:41   Olimar12345   Liggy
15:41   Olimar12345   What would you do in my position?
15:41   Liggy   uh
15:41   Liggy   realize that this suspicion is silly?
15:41      *** Mashi quit (Ping timeout)
15:43   Olimar12345   no, I mean honestly. You want me to believe that your nameless friend is trustworthy and has these great powers? THAT, my friend, sounds like wolf-talk.
15:45   Olimar12345   I suspect that you're communicating with another wolf.
15:47   Liggy   well
15:47   Liggy   I'm not
15:49   Olimar12345   Well, I have a persuasive chat log in my favor.
15:50   Liggy   no you don't?
15:51   Olimar12345   what do you have? Oh, that's right. You have an anonymous friend that can tell people they're human, according to you.
15:52   Olimar12345   according to you.
15:52   Liggy   Olimar.
15:52   Olimar12345   Yesh?
15:52   Liggy   I don't use profanity very often.
15:52   Olimar12345   :3
15:52   Liggy   and it's pretty mild
15:52   Liggy   but why the hell
15:52   Liggy   would I tell you
15:52   Liggy   if you're going to post it in the thread
15:52   Liggy   believe it or not, wolves kill people
15:53   Liggy   especially people that seer people
15:54   Olimar12345   I wouldn't post a chat log that'd hurt my fellow humans.
15:54   Olimar12345   And look around you, we're the only two players online.
15:54   Olimar12345   I'll tell you what I'm going to do:
15:55   Olimar12345   I'm going to post the shit out of this chat log if I don't get a name.
15:55   Olimar12345   But if I do
15:55   Olimar12345   I have no more reason to post it.
15:56   Olimar12345   I'm just so curious as to who you're making these chats about me with.
15:57   Liggy   okay olimar
15:57   Liggy   let me post first
15:57   Liggy   read that
15:57   Liggy   and it should be clear
15:57   Liggy   I neglected to metion
15:57   Liggy   mention*
15:57   Liggy   that at first, both of us thought it only revealed the house
16:03   Olimar12345   ...? Have you posted yet?
16:08   Liggy   yes
16:08   Liggy   sorry
16:14   Olimar12345   Hmm. There's someting I don't quite get.
16:15   Olimar12345   If you were so convinced that I was a wolf, why were you interested in what my house was?
16:16   Liggy   I wasn't yet.
16:16   Liggy   also
16:16   Liggy   if you were a wolf
16:16   Liggy   you didn't have a house
16:16   Liggy   you wouldn't have a house*
16:16   Liggy   so maybe it could reveal some insight on what your alignment was
16:16   Liggy   turns out it did
16:18   Olimar12345   Where'd you read that wolves don't have houses?
16:18   Olimar12345   They have three false roles, each with a false house.
16:19   Liggy   they have two false roles
16:19   Liggy   each with a false house
16:19   Liggy   but they don't have a real house
16:19   Olimar12345   that's what I meant.
16:19   Liggy   I expect the power to reveal house alignment
16:19   Liggy   for a wolf
16:19   Liggy   that would probably say "none"
16:19   Liggy   actually
16:19   Liggy   scratch that
16:20   Liggy   it would probably say the house of the role they disguised as
16:20   Liggy   bird can you confirm?
16:20   Olimar12345   oh they don't. So this power would reveal real roles only?
16:20   bird   ?
16:20   Liggy   would a hypothetical role
16:20   Liggy   that reveals house alignments
16:20   Liggy   what would it reveal the wolves as?
16:21   bird   There's only 5 alignments in this game: Stark/Lannister/Baratheon/Unaffiliated
16:21   bird   Although what your hypothetical power would return depends on whether it sees through disguises.
16:21   Liggy   so would it reveal it as unaffiliated
16:21   Liggy   or disguises
16:21   Liggy   oh okay
16:21   Liggy   thank you
16:22   Olimar12345   hm.
16:25   Olimar12345   Well, Liggy, this has been fun, but I have to go. Since I never heard about this mystery player, I'll probably be posting this chat later for clarity's sake.

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

By the way you replied, I don't think you understand either of my arguments.

I was responding to the second paragraph. And, if you're talking about this post, this one, this one, and/or this one and the one above it, or even your earlier one(s), then the answer would be "I do understand," and that is why I responded to it (the second paragraph mostly) the way I did.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, Olimar:
That chatlog brings up some interesting (that word yet again! ) points, but I think now would be the time to publicly reveal something:
I have a power similar to that, that allows me to find out somebody's allegiance; I don't know the limits of it (e.g. whether or not it's limited to houses, or finding out whether somebody is a wolf or not), but I assume that it might have a similar effect to what Liggy is describing.

[FireArrow]

Ah, sorry, I've reread your post and I misunderstood something. Yes, the possibility of it being a coincidence is probably higher then I make it out to be. Still, what makes you want to write off liggy as human so easily? You keep responding to my logic saying "there are other possibilities." There are always other possibilities, but if we never take a risk and jump on one, we'll never win. We could say that every wolfing is a coincidence, and that would get us nowhere.

[FireArrow]

We better have 2 guards tonight...

[FSM-Reapr]

We better have 2 guards tonight...

Don't worry.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Ah, sorry, I've reread your post and I misunderstood something. Yes, the possibility of it being a coincidence is probably higher then I make it out to be. Still, what makes you want to write off liggy as human so easily? You keep responding to my logic saying "there are other possibilities." There are always other possibilities, but if we never take a risk and jump on one, we'll never win. We could say that every wolfing is a coincidence, and that would get us nowhere.

1: Yes, there are other possibilities, but if we only judge by possibilities, we'll get nowhere.
2: I'm not saying that the wolfing is a coincidence (definition being: "A remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection"); I said that somebody might be worried that Fank would be an outstanding human, and would be extremely helpful to finding them, which is not a "random" connection/reason.

[FireArrow]

1: Yes, there are other possibilities, but if we only judge by possibilities, we'll get nowhere.
2: I'm not saying that the wolfing is a coincidence (definition being: "A remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection"); I said that somebody might be worried that Fank would be an outstanding human, and would be extremely helpful to finding them, which is not a "random" connection/reason.

This is my first game, so is this fanks first time being human or something? (if he is) Nonetheless my point still stands.

At this point, I doubt I'm gonna convince you, we both have are feet planted pretty firmly. I gonna flip this around: If only judging by possibilities, then what's a good day 1 lynch we could make that's not judging by only possibilities?  Maybe we'll come to a compromise.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This is my first game, so is this fanks first time being human or something? (if he is) Nonetheless my point still stands.

At this point, I doubt I'm gonna convince you, we both have are feet planted pretty firmly. I gonna flip this around: If only judging by possibilities, then what's a good day 1 lynch we could make that's not judging by only possibilities?  Maybe we'll come to a compromise.

I believe it's his first time being a human on NSM, assuming that he is?

One might say that it's a cop-out lynch ("botched" might be a better word?) if it's only decided by possibilities (and not by "little facts" WITH possibilities).

[davy]

So yeah. I sit upon the Iron Throne. There are indeed certain benefits, benefits that I would be more than willing to share publicly. This should prompt some discussion on how the king should behave. I'm heading to bed now, and I'll probably post them tomorrow, unless you guys veto.

TZP, as you are sitting upon the throne, it might be possible for the wolves to obtain the throne powers, so I suggest only sharing powers that are not benificial to the wolves (if there are any). Then again, that's just a suggestion.


I've read through the topic, and it seems like BDS, Liggy and FSM are the most likely players to be lynched this phase. I do not agree with lynching BDS for playing like he usually does, and I rather have Liggy alive this phase because he does have the most information of all players. FSM is the best candidate for this day's lynch imo atm.

Also, I would really appreciate if someone could provide me a vote count.