TWG 54: Game of Wolves

[FireArrow]

Ok, I have a lot of explaining to do, and it's gonna involve off the wall theories. First of all, Olimar is human, everything about that makes sense to me now.  (WARNING: this is gonna be hard to follow.)

When fank PMed me and Olimar earlier in the game, I was instantly suspicious of him. He said that he was certain that we were human because he had the talent to tell things like that. I only said one sentence at the time he told this to me, and it was a question I would of asked whether I was a wolf or human. Additionally, like Olimar said, fank just happened to ask the 2 people to join him that were first time players. Maybe he thought we wouldn't pick-up on his plans or that we would blindly trust him? Anyways, I shot Olimar a PM telling him I didn't trust fank and to be careful. He felt the same way. Olimar then questioned fank, and fank didn't give any solid answers, just a "I'm really good - you wouldn't understand" kinda thing. Point is, a lot of the things Olimar did and said behind the scenes were very human, and only a very good wolf would do stuff like that, something I doubt Olimar is on his first game. We were nearly certain of fank being a wolf until today, where he got wolfed.

I lied about my roles to fank as well (I swapped my fake and my real) so I'm not surprised that Olimar did something similar.

Now here's where it gets insane: who are the wolves and why was fank wolfed? The most likely situation is that it was a freak coincidence, however, I have an (albeit, ridiculous) theory. Fank, Liggy, and Mashi are the wolves, and they faked fanks death. I'm 99% certain that a power like that exists (it seems like something this game would have) and even if it doesn't exist, we do know that revives do exist and that the wolves probably have access to one. The reason why I tied Mashi and Liggy was because they all have something in common.

1. They've been having a ridiculous amount of  communication. All those chat logs that they've been posting involve each other, and the plans they discussed are things fank hasn't even mentioned to his "secret group of humans." He only had one strategic PM, and it was basically "let get some ideas to find out people's houses." The mibbit chat I had with him was extremely uneventful (unlike the ones he had with them.)

2. They're all fishing for information on people's houses. Mashi asked people of his house to claim to him, fank was asking us our roles and asking us if we had any idea how to get other peoples, and Liggy is doing the whole "claim to me you can't deny I'm human."

If I'm right, I just saved you guys from the most in genius wolf plot ever, if I'm wrong, we probably won't be able to recover. I suggest we ask Liggy to post the houses everyone belongs to and lynch her (to see if the matyr power is real, if it isn't, we finish of mashi.) We could lynch mashi, but I feel that's a bit riskier.

[FireArrow]

I don't know how to retrieve the PMs I sent, but I got all the ones that involve this situation. These are unedited, so you may have to wade through a bit of useless information. I'm basically going naked here, so this is really risky for me.

I start the game, fank sends me this:

Spoiler

Hey...
You have those telling signs that you are a human, So, Heres the deal.
Im thinking of making an alliance, With people who i think are human. My reads are fairly accurate (i can be wrong at times.)
If you want in, PM me. If you want me to show signs that I am a human, I will show such signs.
Knowledge is power in this game.

[Quote from: FireArrow on May 30, 2013, 05:37:44 AM
Wait, can we use both our fake roles powers as well as our own? I'm kinda confused what the point of these fake roles are (fake claim what?)}

To answer your Q, Wolves know nothing of what each human has, so the idea is to fake them out, and trap them to believe that the fake role is real and such.

Now back to my proposition, IF you want, I will reveal something that will make me human.
If you want "in" this alliance, Respond to this mail.

[close]

I responded that I wanted in, but I wanted the proof that he was human (I was suspicious, but I thought I could get more information this way.)

He responded with this:

Spoiler

This is the sign that I am a human, That im revealing THIS role, which is my role


I am Daenerys Targaryen.
I have 3 abilities,
One is a revive
The 2nd is to hurt someone,
The 3rd is a full heal for myself and another targaryen at the expense of a Baratheon. Conditions pending of course.

My fake claim is Renly Baratheon.

(Ill keep renlys powers secret for now)

I dont need to reveal my powers, But i want to. If you dont want to reveal your powers/characters, Thats your choice, But we gain nothing from you not revealing them to me. Im also trusting olimar at this time. If you have any objections, state them.


-on a side note, Wolves wolf Players, not roles, The idea of fake claiming, is to hide powerful roles like the one above.

[close]

This didn't make any sense because wolves have 2 fake roles, so I'm not sure what this proves. Anyways, iirc, I said I wanted to join the group and I told him my real role (which was actually my fake.) He replied with this:

Spoiler

Im taking a huge gamble by doing this, Lets see if it works out in the end.
1st off, Welcome to this "elusive" club. Ive gathered you here because you are telling signs in the thread that you are a human. And i can trust humans. Lets catch everyone up to speed and this is what we have.

Fanks Claim
I am Daenerys Targaryen.
I have 3 abilities,
One is a revive
The 2nd is to hurt someone,
The 3rd is a full heal for myself and another targaryen at the expense of a Baratheon. Conditions pending of course. success means a refresh of abilities

Fanks Fake Claim
Renly Baratheon
Powers are as follows
-I can attack any 3 people for half heart damage, I can attack the same person more than once
-I can change the value of my vote by -3
-gain health when a male has an affair with me.

Olimars claim
Robert Bamarathon
-Do one heart damage to someone.
-have an affair
-refresh my powers
-and some knowledge thing.


Olimars Fake claim
Mirri Maz Duur

Firearrows claim
I'm Lysa Arryn and my powers are weird 

1 - Deal damage to 2 random people
2 - Kill a random person (It could be me, but not the first time I use it.)
3 - I can use this and learn what power one person used that night.


So I have some things that need to be addressed,

Firearrow, could you give us the fakeclaim, and could both of you give the powers of said fake claims? It will be good just as a personal reference.

Firearrows... a question about 2) is it repetitive?
a question about 3) how many uses is it? because it is a VERY good power. (basically track what someone is doing)


so for the record, we know of one third party, 1(1) Targaryen and 1(1) Baratheon


When replying, unless someone has died, use the reply to all button, so everyone in our group gets it, and bird can be kept in the loop with our plans as well. (for moderations sake.)


Any early thoughts ideas?

[close]

Upon learning that Olimar was in this group, I sent him a "be careful" PM. I replied to fank with my fake role (actually my real one) and their powers. (Note: I really messed up the powers of my actual role, it wasn't that I was trying to lie, I was just confused.)

Olimar replied with this (to just me):

Spoiler

Yeah, idk why he trusts us so easily. It is kind of suspicious, he could me lying, you know?

Anyway, I'll try to keep you in the loop before sending info to him. Not saying that I completely trust you, but I am more suspicious of fank than you.

[close]

and fank sent this:

Spoiler

So... 1st port of call.
Is to find one more from the house of Targaryen. We have at least 4 that we can look back into (and maybe another from the house of Baratheon will help (again 4 to grab at)). We need a way to try and pinpoint who I can pick... I need one more targaryen by the end of day 1 at least. Any ideas on how to draw out the others?

Also... Dont try discuss anything here that hasnt been said in the thread, Dont want you guys "knowing too much".

Although this...

[Quote
lol I guess I should be glad I'm partnered with a good player.]

I shouldnt be the one carrying us. besides, im known to slip at times. Thats why i have you guys here to buffer me. Its good to have a look at something in a different light, and if you find something fishy bringing it up.

basically, what im trying to say is play your own game, not my game. If we have 3 people trying to play the same game, nothing happens. Play your own way, contribute your own way. This "group" is here for 2 reasons. 1) to keep track of numbers (this is a numbers game), 2) some sort of "alliance" had to be formed. And i dont care what people think of this. Im trusting in my "skills" and trusting in you two.

If there is anything confusing in the game, Either Ask Myself or bird, Bird would prolly give you answers from a host view, and i would give you answers from a player point of view. So whichever you feel is suitable, ask said person (who knows, we might have more people in here soon enough... I give us at least a few phases though. Im not that great at reading everyone xD.

And thats all i have to say for now.
Just a reminder, Top of priority is
"Any ideas on how to draw out the others?"

[close]

Additionally, while I was offline, olimar responded to fank with this.

Spoiler

Why do you trust me so easily, Fank?

[close]

I responded to fank (he quoted my pm, so you'll be able to read it.) I responded to  (just) Olimar with something like "I'm pretty sure fanks a wolf, what's the plan. Get him lynched or use damaging powers on him?"

Fanks response was this:

Spoiler

[Quote from: FireArrow on May 30, 2013, 07:25:14 PMTo try and figure out roles, we can fake claim and try to get people to claim to us? We'll probably get counter claimed though.

Oh, and I made a big mistake. I sent BDS a "just incase I die" PM that basically said, if me or olimar die night 1, then frank is human. Anyways, now that FSM posted the conversation you guys had, it shouldn't be too hard for him to connect the dots. So, we can either invite him into our group (whilst leaving him out, I don't really trust him) or hope that he doesn't figure the obvious out.

...sorry.]


we could wait for day 1, and have claims to king..

(nvm about bds, if anything, he'll just think we are more scummeh... this is bad... let just see how it goes.)
you talking about bds or fsm connecting the dots??

(
[Quote from: Olimar12345 on May 30, 2013, 05:43:41 PM
Why do you trust me so easily, Fank?]


for one reason, and one reason only.
because you showed signs that you were a human. Im very good at spotting the small things. hence why i came to you guys.

[close]

Olimar said this:

Spoiler

Elaborate this. If you can't give me a reason that I can understand then I'm out. You're making it look awfully suspicious...

[close]

Fank said that:

Spoiler

I dont think you could fully understand. (yet)

some things that you said in the thread, made me think you were a human.

besides, if i were a wolf, why would i reveal my role to you? (why did i claim the way i claimed???)

Spoiler

Olimar sent this to me:

Spoiler

Don't trust Fink.

[close]

Then day came and the laws of the universe were violated.

[close]

[close]

[FireArrow]

Ugh, can I please edit that? I messed up the spoiler tags.

[Yugi]

I'll make a huge defensive post for Olimar later, since he won't.

I think it goes without saying that I don't approve this lynch.

Don't worry Olimar, my bro. I got this covered. :J

Totally normal and not suspicious at all.

[FireArrow]

Totally normal and not suspicious at all.

I don't find it very suspicious...

[BlackDragonSlayer]

What an interesting change of events.

I see no harm in lynching Olimar, especially since this is a Day 1 lynch and there IS evidence against him; evidence against anybody else seems to be, at the current moment, speculative. I don't think that Mashi, Fank, and Liggy would take such a large risk as killing one of their own (while one of them carries out a plot to find out all of the house members), with little to no reward, and HIGH risk.

Also note that just because somebody defends somebody else, does not necessarily make them a wolf/not a wolf (depending on the circumstance).

[Mashi]

Just want to say that a fank009 wolfing isn't something I would do and anyone who recognises how my Night 1 wolfings go should know that I've only ever deviated from my TWG etiquette once or twice out of maybe a hundred or so games (and those were under serious exception).

Also, wasn't the purpose of PMing our Houses to Liggy for them to be secret?  Wouldn't publicly revealing them defeat the purpose?  If publicly revealing them were the plan all along, we wouldn't need Liggy as a medium; we would just claim in the thread.  I don't really have any serious problems with claiming to the thread, as I'm hoping for us all to be able to work together to find the Wolves and not use our powers to backstab each other.

FireArrow, I've never asked people to claim their Houses to me, not sure where you've found that idea.  In regard to your theory, I'm afraid it's filled with holes.  For one thing, wolfing fank009 on Night 1 when he's not even in danger of being lynched is simply a ludicrous action to perform on Night 1.  Although Liggy and I have both wolfed a Wolf Partner of ours before, both instances did not work out nearly as well as planned and both instances were acts of desperation.

In addition, I find that Liggy seems Human due to his candor, and the fact that he's willing to commit martyrdom for us.  And, although my intuition on him has been wrong once before, I'm sensing that he's Human.  Of course, based on the last game I've played with him, I'm rather skeptical of that as well and will still be wary of him.


Anyhow, Liggy's posted my message to him on Skype already, but I'm currently eating gratuitous amounts of food, so I'll probably only be able to be contacted late at night to discuss the game.  I'm currently a bit inclined to concur with Liggy's suspicion of Olimar12345, but FireArrow brings up information that I feel supports his humanity, so I'm unsure of my position towards him.

I'll be in the chat now, if anyone's up at 2:24AM!!!

[FireArrow]

What an interesting change of events.

I see no harm in lynching Olimar, especially since this is a Day 1 lynch and there IS evidence against him; evidence against anybody else seems to be, at the current moment, speculative. I don't think that Mashi, Fank, and Liggy would take such a large risk as killing one of their own (while one of them carries out a plot to find out all of the house members), with little to no reward, and HIGH risk.

Also note that just because somebody defends somebody else, does not necessarily make them a wolf/not a wolf (depending on the circumstance).

Lynching Olimar isn't the worst thing we could do, but it's simply not worth our time. All the proof against Olimar seems pretty framed anyways. He gave a pretty good reason as to why he lied, so the only reason for lynching him now is "because he knew fank had a powerful role." Guess what, so did I, so did Liggy.

I wasn't proposing that the wolves killed off one of there own, I was proposing that they "faked his death." As in, they know they'll get him back. I forgot mention (mostly because I originally thought this ability was useless) but I have a power that makes it appear as if a player took a damage. If they would die to it, they would appear dead, but they would be PMed that they're still alive. So, yes, there are abilities that can make a player appear dead when they aren't, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wolves had a better version of this.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I wasn't proposing that the wolves killed off one of there own, I was proposing that they "faked his death." As in, they know they'll get him back. I forgot mention (mostly because I originally thought this ability was useless) but I have a power that makes it appear as if a player took a damage. If they would die to it, they would appear dead, but they would be PMed that they're still alive. So, yes, there are abilities that can make a player appear dead when they aren't, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wolves had a better version of this.

That's only speculation; there's nothing to say for certain that there's a power that "works in reverse"/"is enhanced". We don't even know how the powers work, since we haven't used them yet...!

[FireArrow]

Just want to say that a fank009 wolfing isn't something I would do and anyone who recognises how my Night 1 wolfings go should know that I've only ever deviated from my TWG etiquette once or twice out of maybe a hundred or so games (and those were under serious exception).

Also, wasn't the purpose of PMing our Houses to Liggy for them to be secret?  Wouldn't publicly revealing them defeat the purpose?  If publicly revealing them were the plan all along, we wouldn't need Liggy as a medium; we would just claim in the thread.  I don't really have any serious problems with claiming to the thread, as I'm hoping for us all to be able to work together to find the Wolves and not use our powers to backstab each other.

FireArrow, I've never asked people to claim their Houses to me, not sure where you've found that idea.  In regard to your theory, I'm afraid it's filled with holes.  For one thing, wolfing fank009 on Night 1 when he's not even in danger of being lynched is simply a ludicrous action to perform on Night 1.  Although Liggy and I have both wolfed a Wolf Partner of ours before, both instances did not work out nearly as well as planned and both instances were acts of desperation.

In addition, I find that Liggy seems Human due to his candor, and the fact that he's willing to commit martyrdom for us.  And, although my intuition on him has been wrong once before, I'm sensing that he's Human.  Of course, based on the last game I've played with him, I'm rather skeptical of that as well and will still be wary of him.


Anyhow, Liggy's posted my message to him on Skype already, but I'm currently eating gratuitous amounts of food, so I'll probably only be able to be contacted late at night to discuss the game.  I'm currently a bit inclined to concur with Liggy's suspicion of Olimar12345, but FireArrow brings up information that I feel supports his humanity, so I'm unsure of my position towards him.

I'll be in the chat now, if anyone's up at 2:24AM!!!

Saying that it isn't something you would do really isn't a valid argument. Previous behavior isn't a law as to what that said TWGer would do in the next game, you could do something you wouldn't normally do for whatever reason.

Oh, I thought the plan was for liggy to post that publicly, but your right, we wouldn't need her then. I'm really confused as too the point of it then, is she going to "guide the humans powers so that they are most effective?"

Anyways, there is absolutely no proof of liggy being human unless we kill her, but then he can't be of any use to use (besides her ability.) If he's willing to die for us, then lets see if he actually would die for us. He can leave the information with someone who's humanity can be confirmed without dying (are there ways to do this?)

Yes, you did ask people to claim to you: "I am the Please of House Wolfeon, claim to me."
Sorry for not using an actual quote, but if you don't believe this quote go look through the thread. If this was some joke that I didn't catch, then I apologize.

Also, I wanna thank you for taking me seriously. I expected people to just roll their eyes and lynch Olimar anyways (my theory is a bit crazy.)

[FireArrow]

That's only speculation; there's nothing to say for certain that there's a power that "works in reverse"/"is enhanced". We don't even know how the powers work, since we haven't used them yet...!

We do know that the wolves can revive people, though, we don't know the exact mechanics of it.

It is speculation, but it is very reasonable speculation. This is a mystery game, and if we take everything for face value, then we'll be very susceptible to deception (like in this situation, if my theory is correct.)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

We do know that the wolves can revive people, though, we don't know the exact mechanics of it.

It is speculation, but it is very reasonable speculation. This is a mystery game, and if we take everything for face value, then we'll be very susceptible to deception (like in this situation, if my theory is correct.)

I don't think wolves can revive themselves, or else that would lead to a VERY unbalanced game!!

It's possible, but it doesn't seem entirely reasonable, at least to me (and I am one who usually looks at every possibility before making a decision).

[FireArrow]

I don't think wolves can revive themselves, or else that would lead to a VERY unbalanced game!!

It's possible, but it doesn't seem entirely reasonable, at least to me (and I am one who usually looks at every possibility before making a decision).

The point is, we can't treat this like a normal TWG. Any basic logic that you would normally apple may not work here becuase of some surprise ability. Yes, it is possible that the wolves have no power to fake/reverse death, but if we treat it as if they don't, then we'll be screwed if they do.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The point is, we can't treat this like a normal TWG. Any basic logic that you would normally apple may not work here becuase of some surprise ability. Yes, it is possible that the wolves have no power to fake/reverse death, but if we treat it as if they don't, then we'll be screwed if they do.

But if we treat it as if they do, we'll probably lynch three people who may not all be wolves.

[FireArrow]

But if we treat it as if they do, we'll probably lynch three people who may not all be wolves.

That's much better then later in the game, having a second wolf jump out of nowhere and outnumber us. Anyways, if we lynch liggy, we don't lose all that much if he is human (yay, global heal.) If the matyr power never activates, then we know we hit a wolf and we can figure the rest out from there (assuming my thoeory is incorrect.)

Since we decided everyone should be make a suspicion list, I'll get on that now,