TWG LIII: All the King's Men

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Bird, thank you for your trust in my ignorance vs. malice.
Greg, thank you for your trust in my malice vs. ignorance.

>__>

Unlike some, I actually think before I post.  Mashi and Bird, I get what you're saying, but that's a really long shot.  A special could be deliberately lying low till the end of the phase for that very reason, or someone (like Wolf) could be the Prince but just not gotten on yet.  The reason I wanted BDS to post it was because the wolves might either jump and claim really fast, or discuss and claim late.  It would AT LEAST give us something to work with.

I promise I will make a suspicion list later, but I'm really tight on time all of a sudden.  I will be legitly mad if someone says 'oohh TZP's dodging suspicion lists he's totes wuff.'  You guys saw how busy I was last game.  I'll be as active as I can, but that may not go as far as I'd like.

[fank009]

TZP, could you humour me???
any reason why  a power would deliberatley wait to claim???
(if anyone else wants to humour me, go ahead)

[Greg]

Bird, thank you for your trust in my ignorance vs. malice.
Greg, thank you for your trust in my malice vs. ignorance.

XD
But seriously, thanks for your explanation of your rationale.

I just thought of something. If we all vote for a player who's a special or who BDS doesn't want to kill for whatever reason, he'll be forced to kill someone else, thus giving the wolves a target for that night phase. Naturally this isn't good at all.
To avoid this I think we should each send BDS our top two or three lynch candidates, and then he kills the top lynch candidate unless they're a special. That way, unless there's overwhelming public sentiment against a player in the thread, the wolves don't know who was up first, and thus BDS can avoid raising the wolves' suspicions by not killing the top lynch candidate.

Thoughts?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

At the current moment during this day phase, two people I might consider lynching are either TZP or gzgregory... what do you think of these two choices?
Though, gzgregory's newest idea sounds like it might work, to a certain extent.

[Waddle Bro]

oohh TZP's dodging suspicion lists he's totes wuff.

[Bubbles]

I cant quote easily on my 3ds, but omg i swear if i get lynched for being inactive i wont play twg for a while. Ok so I was inactive the times I was a wolf, but I really wasnt much more active when I was human. Im not exactly the player to post just to see themselves post or to comment on every little detail

For the record I will not be active for most of tomorrow, and am currently too busy to do anything more than skim the thread

[Bird]

Since there doesn't seem to be a real frontrunner for this lynch, would you all be interested in meeting in the IRC at 8:00 CDT / 9:00 EDT? Or another time, if that would work better?

[Greg]

I'm there right now, and will probably be for at least 30 minutes.

[vermilionvermin]

2. Yugi, Officer - Captain:  You've given me a bad case of the heebie jeebies this game.  Nobody (except for fank, whom I think is probably human) is going after you for suggesting the guardian not claim to BDS, which I think is strange when they're going after TZP.  And the "so hwat now?" right before the end of night 1 seemed unnatural and out of place to me.

10. Waddle Bro, Officer - Lieutenant:  Unlike FSM, I'm not giving you a pass on the TZP scenario.  I know when I'm a wolf, I often cater to the interests of the human I talk to most.  For me, that's Bird.  For you, that's FSM.  You're probably higher on this list than you should be because of your "votes don't matter" attitude which is annoying.

16. Liggy, Doctor - Major:  Unlike wolf, I think there's a pretty good chance you save yourself from the Night 2 purge with a burst of activity.  Where have you been all day?

12. Mashi, Officer - Major:  I think I really need to go to the chat more often.  TBWCW seems like a Mashi wolfing but tbh I need to chat w/ you a little more since we haven't talked much since Night 1!  Anyways, suspicion lists plz.

7. gzgregory, Soldier - Sergeant:  I really want to get this suspicion list posted and I don't really know where I stand on you.  I think you fit Thiannon's "Seizure Man Theory" pretty well because you're playing above what you normally do in terms of activity, but this might just be because you might be on summer vacation already or something else.

11. Bubbles, Cook - Sergeant:  I tried to write this a few times and I don't even know where I stand on you.  I definitely feel the inactivity is because of something legitimate because you recognize the fact that people expect inactivity from you as a wolf.  On the other hand, the "I'm not going to play TWG for a while if I'm lynched for inactivity" is a super annoying defense.  Regardless of past history with inactivity, weeding out inactives is a good enough reason to lynch people on Day 1.

9. Bird, Pilot - Lieutenant:  I've been watching you and waiting for you to continue a pattern I saw in the previous few times you were a wolf.  You haven't done that yet.  HOWEVER.  I'm really really suspicious of the fact that you were against the Bubbles lynch because it "felt like a cop-out" but were supportive of lynching Gregory.  That and you're nigh-impossible to read and I think you may have been tipped off as to what you weren't supposed to do.

8. Dude, Clerk - Corporal:  I think it's entirely possible you wolfed TBWCW.  I think it's less likely to be you than anyone else, but I don't think it's impossible.

6. The ZeldaPianist275, Soldier - Private:  I don't remember playing in a game where you were a wolf, but if I had to guess now, I'd say I am probably not currently doing so.  I think your suggestion about revealing the claimants makes slightly more sense if you're a human than it does if you're a wolf, and I think that people could (should?) be going after others instead of you.

15. Thiannon, Soldier - Private:  BDS I SENT YOU THIS CHAT.  Anyways, my explanation for thinking Thiannon's human is the chat I had with him yesterday and the implications of something he said during it.

5. FSM-Reapr, M.P. - Sergeant:  I don't think it really makes sense for you to be a wolf.  I disagree with the suspicion against TZP, but I don't think you're suspicious for bringing it up.  One of the principal reasons I was lynched Day 1 of last game was for doing something similar with the BDS lynch, and it doesn't make much sense for a wolf to try to do the same strategy in the next game.  The more logical explanation is that you are a human who realizes that this game has a lot of potential to be super inactive and that we need to generate activity somehow.

3. fank009, Soldier - Private:  He seems to be putting forth a genuine effort to find wolves in that he's going after TZP despite not agreeing with the lynch.  I also felt his opinion on Gzgregory came off as really genuine and honest, especially when he's talking about gut feelings.  He's also probably the most active player besides maybe Bird, so I don't really want to lynch him this early.

13. wolf, Soldier - Private:  There's no point lynching someone who will be booted from the game Night 2.  I'm not confident in his humanity, but I am confident that we shouldn't waste this lynch.

1. Black Dragon Slayer, Soldier - Corporal:  The King.

4. The Boy Who Cried Wolf, Clerk - Corporal:  I was a bit wary of him Night 1 but there's no reason for the wolves to kill themselves.

14. Vermilionvermin, Soldier - Corporal:  Sources say he was reading a PM saying he wasn't a wolf.

[vermilionvermin]

I should probably bold Yugi

[Thiannon]

Here's my suspicion list, now tiered for your enjoyment.

Lynch at Will Tier

1. Dude - I'm not convinced the Boy shenanigans mean much, or that one of his wolf partners wouldn't wolf Boy anyway. He's posted a lot but contributed essentially nothing (his only contribution, the Boy exchange, was handed to him by Boy and is now effectively useless since Boy's dead).
2. Bubbles - Inactive as a wolf, inactive now. verm's point is well heeded, but I think she could fall prey to idea that having an excuse for her inactivity is enough to give her a free pass, which it isn't, of course. The "You can't fire me. I quit!" defense is just poor sportsmanship.
3. Waddle Bro - His thinking Boy might have been a special seems out of left field, the kind of math-on-napkins analysis that arises from a bunch of wolves putting their heads together to try to decide on a N1 wolfing. He also seems like someone who might try to "correctly guess" the wolves' modus operandi.
4. Yugi - All over the map. Also, he needs to change his avatar.
5. gzgregory - Could be Seizure Manning it a bit, though it's difficult to tell.

Roger Moore Didn't Know That Tier

6. Vermilionvermin - I'm getting a bit of a vibe from him. Also he's crafty.
7. Mashi - Boy wolfing fits, as does the inactivity. He's like the NSM version of me (just better at calculus!).
8. FSM-Reapr - Much like verm, I'm keeping an eye on him because he scares me.
9. Bird - See above, but I feel I can read him better than the other three.

Exists?! Tier

10. wolf
11. Liggy

Looking Human Tier

12. The ZeldaPianist275 - Looks like a contributing human with a touch of paranoia to me.
13. fank009 - He's got some solid analysis here. Also, he's stuck his neck out quite a bit for someone who's new to NSM TWG.

Obvious Wolves are Obvious Tier

14. Black Dragon Slayer - The king is dead. Long live the king!
15. Thiannon - Now a major motion picture!

[fank009]

My list is short, And people who are either More than certain or near undecided, wont appear on this list

Those in the den... (possible wolves)
Yugi- Like i said in post #85, Something stubbing me on night one, and nothing much on day one to show for it
Waddle- You be trolling bro? (this is somewhat due to me not knowing player meta, and going on the fact that fmbpov, that trolling = scum)

Those in the claws (possible humans)
Dude- Again in post #85, He wouldnt have posted how he did if he was a wolf, before and after the reaction test
TZP- While his idea is wolfish, its the exact idea that his idea is wolfish that makes him human (if that doesnt make sense bird im talking to you, Ask for a definition "In English")

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TZP- While his idea is wolfish, its the exact idea that his idea is wolfish that makes him human (if that doesnt make sense bird im talking to you, Ask for a definition "In English")

I actually understand this: Essentially, TZP is doing something that would be incredibly insane for a wolf to do- almost like many things I did in the last game- which means that, unless he really wants to forsake his wolf partners, he probably would play it a little safer, if he were a wolf.

[Yugi]

Waddle- You be trolling bro? (this is somewhat due to me not knowing player meta, and going on the fact that fmbpov, that trolling = scum)

What?

[fank009]

Waddle- You be trolling bro? (this is maybe somewhat due to me not knowing player meta, and going on the fact that fmbpov, that trolling = scum)

Fixed