TWG LI: A Role Reunion

[vermilionvermin]

I have the armor.. Claims please. 

[FSM-Reapr]

Hang on, I recommend that everybody would wait until everyone has seen the thread to make sure there are no counterclaims.

[Greg]

Posting to say I don't have the armor.

[FSM-Reapr]

Posting to say I don't have the armor.

This is what everybody should do.

[Kman96]

I do not have the armor, either.

[Dude]

Posting to say I don't have the armor.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

^And why is that? This could be just me being narrow-minded, but I see no way that could help.

On another note, here's a cheap strategy for finding independents. Whoever has a lantern passes it around during the day, till every player's touched it. The failed passes are independents.

Yeah; the wolves will obviously avoid that person.

Seems like a good idea... might work?

Because only a human would receive the Armor, making him confirmed. Also the fact that he can't be wolfed or killed by Mr. Mutou gives us a powerful alliance leader.

He should wait until the day; any chance for a failed wolfing is a good chance. We're not missing anything by waiting.

I have the armor.. Claims please.

...nevermined... I guess...

I do not have the armor.

[Waddle Bro]

The main reason why it's best to start an alliance is because there's a wolf coroner and if he wolfes someone like Magnus, the results would be devastating, because he'd just claim that role.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The main reason why it's best to start an alliance is because there's a wolf coroner and if he wolfes someone like Magnus, the results would be devastating, because he'd just claim that role.

I'm not saying that it's bad to start an alliance. It's just that it is (was, at least) possible to have a chance at avoiding a wolfing.

[Waddle Bro]

But when it comes to chances, starting the alliance Day 1 isn't a good idea.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

But when it comes to chances, starting the alliance Day 1 isn't a good idea.

You're not giving any reasons why: Not claiming immediately will (rather, would have been) essentially be like a guarding, since we don't have any guardian in this game. Any chance is better than no chance.

[Waddle Bro]

-.- Can't you really calculate the chances yourself? I thought you were good in math! Well, let's see. The chance of a failed wolfing is 1/12. The chances of the wolves completetely owning the game by killing a human who knows it's role is 4/12 = 1/3, which is a huge risk to take considering that could cost us the game.

This was just some quick math I did. I actually can't believe you'd rather wanted the Armor guy claim during Day rather than the Night. Seems just a little bit wolfish action, if I do say so myself.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

-.- Can't you really calculate the chances yourself? I thought you were good in math! Well, let's see. The chance of a failed wolfing is 1/12. The chances of the wolves completetely owning the game by killing a human who knows it's role is 4/12 = 1/3, which is a huge risk to take considering that could cost us the game.

This was just some quick math I did. I actually can't believe you'd rather wanted the Armor guy claim during Day rather than the Night. Seems just a little bit wolfish action, if I do say so myself.

Hoping to avoid a wolfing = Wolf-like action
Flawless logic.

Also, your calculations are incorrect: there are only 8 humans, if I am not mistaken; you are also factoring in Independents, which would bring the proper calculation to 1/8... or not, especially since Vermilionvermin (remember who was wolfed first in 72 Hours Remaining? ) has the armor (or is a wolf trying to completely trick us... but let's not assume so quickly).
Also, if the wolves wolf somebody with a role not easy to imitate (e.g. any of the normal humans, and, to a certain extent, Hero of Hope and Magnus, if I have read their role descriptions properly), which would place them in obvious suspicion.

If the wolf claims to imitate the Hero of Hope, they can't send in a tribune (a public message, correct??), which automatically exposes them, unless they have a great excuse for missing a tribune every single phase.
The same thing applies to Magnus: if the wolf can't keep up with the power (literally, fulfill the effects of what they claim to be), then they'll be exposed as a wolf. Theoretically, they could just claim to morph into Andrew Jackson (or Skuntank itself), but a simple KitB would quickly expose it.

Entire list of humans roles the wolf can not claim, at least from my deductions:
Magnus
Hero of Hope
Daisy
Raiden who hisses
Brutal Human

Leaving three roles that would allow for a good chance for the wolf to sneak in.


However, since the armor-holder has already claimed, it doesn't matter... better get an alliance going...

[Waddle Bro]

I'm wayyy too tired to argue with you and make a post that's the size of a football field.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm wayyy too tired to argue with you and make a post that's the size of a football field.

I appreciate, though, Waddle, that you've learned from Relax, I'm a Doctor. 0-:D