TWG XLIX: Red vs. Blue

[FSM-Reapr]

Totally going to ninja Mashi on this one

Spoiler

I have proof that Mr. Tanooki Suit wasn't the Seer.
Otso Syrjänen 0.20
Surprised
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.20
I'll even screencap it for you so you know that I'm not forging anything.
Otso Syrjänen 0.20
come at me bro
0.21
You should hurry, I have to go in 40 min and I don't want to lynch the seer!
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.21
I can't believe I didn't realisise this before.
0.21
It'll be quick, give me a few seconds.
0.22
So the Seer can't use AIs.
0.22
I know this, because I'm the Seer.
0.22
And I think it's reasonable for someone to know all about their Role.
Otso Syrjänen 0.22
I know that too
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.22
Since its description is in the Role PM.
0.23
You believe that's reasonable, no?
Otso Syrjänen 0.23
I know that the seer can't use A.Is
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.23
Yup!
0.23
http://tinypic.com/r/14kxgjo/6
0.23
Yet, Mr. Tanooki Suit (Sage of the Forest) inquired to me whether to /use/ his AI.
0.24
Which supports my theory of his being a Human false claiming Seer to try to protect whom he believed was the Seer.
Otso Syrjänen 0.24
wait
0.24
he's just speaking in general
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.24
FSM-Reapr
0.24
You need to accept that you're wrong sometimes and that mistakes were made.
Otso Syrjänen 0.24
I came up with the Sigma idea
0.25
I think he just wanted your opinion on that
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.25
No, FSM-Reapr.
0.25
That's what you want to think.
0.25
Be rational!
Otso Syrjänen 0.25
He didn't say that he had Sigma!!!
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.25
It's implied.
0.25
And it also corroborates past claims.
Otso Syrjänen 0.25
No it's not!!!
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.26
About the AIs.
0.26
Sigh.
0.26
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief_bias
Otso Syrjänen 0.26
oh gawd
Little Red Mashi Hood 0.26
That's what's happening to you right now.
Otso Syrjänen 0.26
wikipedia
0.27
I'll make a post about this before I leave.

[close]

I don't see this as evidence.

But here is what I think was going on. Mr. T had the Sigma. Unfortunately he was unable to use it, due of being the seer. And this is where Mashi found out that Mr. T had the Sigma and decided to kill him. He seemed certain in the chat that Mr. T had the Sigma A.I, which makes me even more suspicious of him. What doesn't add up is that why did Mr. T even ask about the Sigma from Mashi. I think that was his big mistake.

Yeah, that's a great idea.

distraction

This theory would also mean TZP was not the Sarge.

ninja'd damn I don't have time to reply that.

My Internet will now be cut off from the hospital since it's midnight. Sheikah, I don't need to be replaced.

[Mashi]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

[Toby]

Oh and I'm only in the nsm chat because on my phone and it's really laggy and I'm being open for nsmers to come at me.

[Waddle Bro]

I was told to come here so I did.

Catching up currently.

[Toby]

Good job with your defense, FSM. I thought you were screwd after I saw you lied about all of that shiz.

I just want everyone to be aware of this.

Waddle, I don't get it, why do you trust him so much to look past his lies and congratulate him on making a big post?

[Waddle Bro]

Because he shoke off all the suspicions I had of him with that post. He actually had a good reason to lie.

[Bubbles]

I really distrusted FSM at first, but now hes actually starting to make sense

Thats the problem though. I believe both him AND Mashi. But as it looks right now, they cant both last another phase together. I guess Ill vote for TBWCW because I'm unsure about the previous two. I'll probably go back and change it closer to the end of the phase

[Mashi]

1.vermilionvermin - NSMers trust him way too much.  He shouldn't have been given so much sensitive information, even if he is Human.  verm verm is too good take such risks.  He seems extremely Human so far, but I'm keeping an eye on him still.  And I advise everyone else to also do the same.
2.BlackDragonSlayer - Vigi.
3.TheZeldaPianist275 - Most likely a Wolf.  I would still like to know the other Brutal Human claim, however, to be sure.
4.The Boy Who Cried Wolf - I don't know why people find him suspicious.  He false claimed Seer in the thread for the alleged reason of sacrificing himself to stop the snipe.  This failed with Mr. Tanooki Suit's claim and wolf's acting like Guardian, hence why he's alive now, which were both beyond his control.  I ask both you and FSM-Reapr to put your personal differences aside in regard to lynching each other, however; this is a game, not a life event.
5.blueflower999 - I'm not sure if he's paying much attention to the game.
6.K-NiGhT - Inactive.  I forgot he was even playing until his latest post.
7.Bubbles7689 - I'm suspicious of her inactivity; she pops by on occasion, but never really contributes to anything, much unlike the Bubbles7689.  I suspect she would purposely be inactive as a Wolf to shoo away suspicion as well, ergo, my suspicion of her.
8.Yugi - Inactive; no strong opinion of him.
9.Hunter of Souls - Keeps bandwagoning FSM-Reapr and was quick to point at me for Meta.  My intuition is saying he's the Meta, but he hasn't really done much for me to have any serious opinion of.
10.Mashi - i lied about being seer im actually the wolf meta please
11.Mr. Tanooki Suit - Human.  The Seer shenanigan (he even said that he caused shenanigans; connoting a false Seer claim on his part!!!) events that took place only make sense if he's Human.
12.FSM-Reapr - He's too resolved and adamantly against me to be a Wolf, I feel.  He may be a Wolf trying to be impressive and have me lynched, but eh; I don't think FSM-Reapr is that type of person.  What I said about the animosity between you and TheBoyWhoCriedWolf applies to you as well.
13.wolf - Human.
14.Waddle Bro - Not sure, I haven't seen much of him.  I feel that he hasn't done anything out of the ordinary as of yet, though.  I seered him Green Night 1, and as it was a random seering, I think it's likely that he wasn't painted, so he's hopefully Human.
15. popo447 - Have you even posted???


Currently, I think we should go after the inactives.  With the exception of the Seer shenanigans, the only counterclaimed Role (to my knowledge) was that of Brutal Human.  Based on that, the Wolves and Meta must naturally be among those who didn't claim.  So for the time being, I'll leave my vote Bubbles7689.  It may be subject to change after some discussion for the lynch later on, however.

Everyone else should post their suspicion lists as well.

[vermilionvermin]

8.Yugi:  I can't shake this feeling that you're not a human this game.  It probably has to do with the fact that you posted the two things which prompted specials to reveal their roles (wolf and BDS before we'd decided it was good to reveal the seer).  When I posted that chatlog I faked with wolf, he rushed to the chatroom, which is kind of odd.  Humans have no reason to want to try to get someone to admit to being the guardian.  Supporting a rather weak TBWCW lynch isn't helping you either.  Neither is the fact that you tried to stall claiming and such to FSM.

5.blueflower999:  Inactive enough to not have claimed to BDS, which makes blueflower a really good wolf partner with TZP given TZP's claim.  Is also on the TBWCW bandwagon which I think is pretty weak.

7.Bubbles7689:  Mashi seems to think you're suspicious.  I'll get back to you later.

15. popo447:  Signed up for this game.  Almost certainly didn't claim to BDS, so possible wolf partner with TZP.  Probably isn't the Meta though.

6.K-NiGhT:  I'm getting a human vibe from this post in which he talks about why we shouldn't lynch Mashi today.  I'm pretty convinced Mashi's the seer, and the wolves would likely be aware of that fact and want Mashi wolfed.  That post pretty much closes the door on supporting Mashi lynches today, which isn't strategic from a wolf perspctive.  On the other hand, there's also the fact that I could see him not claiming to BDS as a wolf (this happened when I was an alliance leader in an earlier game).  I'll keep an eye on him.

9.Hunter of Souls:  If he's not a human, he's probably a wolf, but not the Meta.  I doubt the Meta would try to get people organized about AIs, especially given that this is one of his first games.  That said, I think it's fairly reasonable to think that Mr. T might be the real seer if you don't have much experience playing with Mr. T, who has on one occasion claimed to be the seer just for the fun of it.  I can't remember if Mashi had posted his defense or not when Hunter voted.  Hunter wasn't active around the time BDS claimed seer I don't think.

14.Waddle bro:  Need to see more from you, but I think you were able to claim to BDS, so that puts you behind a few people!  I don't like that you're pretty much voting whoever FSM says to vote.  If he's human, he isn't going to be much more accurate than you are by yourself. 

4.The Boy Who Cried Wolf:  As a general rule, as support for a lynch goes up and the quality goes down, the likelihood of that person being a wolf goes down.  Given the shenanigans that occurred last game, I think it's more likely that TBWCW claimed seer in the hopes that he was sniped than he did hoping the real seer would counterclaim him or something.  The TBWCW vote seems pretty sheepy imo.

12.FSM-Reapr:  Used Gamma.  People are hating on you I think.  Seems pretty human to me.  I was mildly suspicious of you because of your reaction to one of the seer claims (I think it was TBWCW's) but I think that's more likely to be a human reaction based on the fact that you used the Gamma.

10.Mashi:  I'm inclined to believe Mashi is for real about his seer claim.  I was really skeptical before because of Mr. T's claim, but there are a lot of nuances about Mashi's claim that make sense.  Oh yeah.  Mr. Tanooki Suit has a pretty spotty track record in regards to seer claims.  In the game I linked, he was the vigi and claimed seer (and tried to get me lynched!) for no reason.

1.Vermilionvermin:   

I'm of the opinion that TZP was a wolf and Mr. T's death was a Meta kill.  Mr. T was a target because of his status as a potential seer.  I can't remember TZP expressing any sort of suspicion one way or another about him.  Blueflower, K-Night, Bubbles, Hunter, and Popo were all too inactive to claim to BDS iirc.  That means they're most likely to be wolf partners with TZP who messed up his claim.

[popo447]

I s chatting with Blue on Skype and he was acting very suspicious, saying things like "Hi" over and over again in just one chat session. Very odd indeed.

[blueflower999]

Because I've never trolled you like that before, right Popo? 

[vermilionvermin]

1.Vermilionvermin:  Yugi
4.The Boy Who Cried Wolf:  FSM
5.blueflower999:  TBWCW
6.K-NiGhT:  Hunter
7.Bubbles7689:  TBWCW
8.Yugi:  TBWCW
9.Hunter of Souls:  Mashi
10.Mashi:  Bubbles
12.FSM-Reapr:  Mashi
14.Waddlebro
15. popo447

[vermilionvermin]

Switching over to Bubbles, who was inactive in and around the timing of BDS' claim, which makes her a good potential partner for TZP.  I don't like the fact that she hasn't changed her TBWCW vote yet and the phase ends in 28 minutes.

[Jub3r7]

vermillionvermin

[popo447]

Blueflower999

I am sorry I must do this, best friend...