TWG XLIX: Red vs. Blue

[Toby]

Ah. You're just 2 because I have an urge to know what you did to make them trust you..

You're probably more 3 though. Idk.

I aint got many thoughts about.

[FSM-Reapr]

TBWCW, did you even read my defense? That should perfectly explain why I was lying to Mashi.

Working on a suspicion list also.

[blueflower999]

Boy. Sorry! You've been acting weird and your suspicions don't make sense. That along with a false claim makes me think you're wuff!

[Toby]

Okay, I guess it's time.

I am a normal human. I claimed seer to try and get the snipe to snipe me, since personally I think a seer is more important than a vig and if I claimed guardian that'd just look awful.

As soon as I claimed though I told Verm and BDS that I was only a normal human, I didn't save the pm when I sent it so if Verm would be kind enough to reveal to thread that'd be good.

This also explains why I said to Mr. T to take back his claim and didn't mention anything about him being wolf or me being seer.

Also it's dumb for wolf/meta to claim normal human since their seered green or whatever.

[Toby]

Oh and I didn't take my claim back earlier because I figured it's better a normal human dying than some other special role.

[FSM-Reapr]

No. TBWCW shouldn't be our target this Day Phase.

Don't get me wrong, I do think TBWCW is a wolf. But, I think lynching the Meta suspect is more important.

Mashi. Let me explain my intentions.

If you think TBWCW is a wolf, this theory will explain why Mashi is not the seer:

TBWCW claimed seer.
Mr. T counterclaimed him.
Mashi counterclaimed them.

If TBWCW is a wolf, that means Mr. T cannot be a wolf since otherwise he counterclaimed his wolf partner. That makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. T cannot also be the Meta, since the A.I. units are still in play. This means Mr. T was telling the truth all along since he can't be a wolf or the Meta. This is the main reason why I think Mashi is lying.

Here are vermverm's thoughts that I agree with:

Green means I doubt it, red means I'm suspicious.  Black is neutral.

4.The Boy Who Cried Wolf:  I don't think he's the Meta because of his seer claim on night 1.  The fact that he claimed seer was really risky.  If nobody counterclaimed him, there was a good chance he got seered himself or the wolves tried to kill him (and would find out he was the Meta as a result).


10.Mashi:  Top suspect at the moment for the Meta.  He knows wolf was the guardian.  He is the person most likely to have found out that Mr. T was the seer (Mr. T wasn't exactly quiet about it) because Mr. T hangs out in a chat other than NSM's that Mashi and I both frequent.  Even if Mr. T didn't tell him his role, I think it's likely he figured it out anyways, or figured out that Mr. T had an AI unit.  There are three reasons that I think Mashi is the Meta:
1.  I think he's the most likely player to have figured out that Mr. T had an AI unit, and if Mr. T was a Meta kill (which I think is likely) Mashi would have been most likely to know that and have killed him.
2.  I think he most likely figured out Mr. T was the seer, who was the biggest threat alive to the Meta's survival.
3.  He likely knows that all useful specials are dead.  He knows wolf's the guardian and likely knows Mr. T was the seer.  And yet he still advocates for you not knowing the roles.  That doesn't make sense.

Bolded part important

Yes, wolf was the guardian. Most people seem to know this so I might as well confirm it.

More shiz I think you should know about:

Mr. T was the seer.  Both he and TBWCW told me of their own accord that TBWCW was lying.  I thought it was more likely Mr. T in the first place, and I think the wolves/Meta would have figured that out too.  This is why I believe that TZP was not the Brutal human and the second death was in fact a result of the Meta guessing who had an item.

As soon as I claimed though I told Verm and BDS that I was only a normal human, I didn't save the pm when I sent it so if Verm would be kind enough to reveal to thread that'd be good.

This also explains why I said to Mr. T to take back his claim and didn't mention anything about him being wolf or me being seer.

Dude. You do realize you made the seer counterclaim you. I think it would have been very smart for a wolf to do that. Make the seer counterclaim and you'd seem human.

[Toby]

Seeing as BDS was an alliance leader I was hoping seer would claim to him.

[Hunter of Souls]

And the sheep began to follow the one (FSM) with the greatest explanation ever. I mean c'mon, what can be added after that? Mashi.

[FSM-Reapr]

Seeing as BDS was an alliance leader I was hoping seer would claim to him.

Ohh derp, I even said that why didn't Mr. T claim privately

Anyways, I'm still not entirely convinced after what's been going on this phase.

[K-NiGhT]

You guys realize that if Mashi is the Meta, and we lynch him, we can't use Gamma to end night phases and prevent wolfings?

[FSM-Reapr]

I'm actually willing to take that risk.

The player holding Gamma hasn't claimed to me which makes me think a wolf has it.

[Mashi]

There are four possible Roles for Mr. T to have been; Human, Meta, Wolf, or Seer.  He can't be Meta because the AIs are still intact, and he's most probably not Wolf because he misinterpreted the Sniper Role.

Which means that he's either a normal Human or Seer.  "But wait!" the sheep are saying!  "Why would a Human lie???  Ha, we've caught you in your lie, Mashi; we're surely cleverer than you even though you pulling a scheme like this is ridiculous even for you as a Wolf!!!" they continue.  Wrong!

I think that the most likely scenario is that Mr. Tanooki Suit was a Human who counterclaimed Seer because he legitimately believed that TheBoyWhoCriedWolf accidentally claimed; his counterclaim would serve to confuse the Wolves while hopefully protecting the Seer.
Furthermore, there is no evidence that Mr. Tanooki Suit even PMed BlackDragonSlayer of his being Seer.  All belief in his being Seer is purely speculation, and many of you have accidentally accepted that speculation as fact.
Also, I've seemed to have actually had solid evidence that Mr. Tanooki Suit wasn't the Seer, but didn't realise it until now, because I'm dumb.  I forwarded a PM Mr. Tanooki Suit (on LLF, Sage of the Foret) sent to me to vermilionvermin yesterday, but hadn't realised its implications until now.  The Seer is incapable of using AIs.  However, in the following PM:

Spoiler

[close]

It is rather clear that Mr. Tanooki Suit implies his possession of the Sigma AI and his ability to use it.  And his possession of the AI makes sense as well, as discussed between verm verm and I.  I would post the log, but I'm having trouble retrieving it from Chatzilla's autosave; verm verm can vouch for it, however.  I'll try to find it when I return home later today, though.


Also, stop cherry picking quotes, FSM-Reapr.  Those quotes are out of context and are even obsolete at this point due to emergence of new information.  I don't know why, but NSMers nowadays often suspect me when I do absolutely nothing.  I'm not sure if I even posted for the first two Phases when people suspected me of being the Meta.  Not to say I was inactive, just that I wasn't participating to a large enough degree.  I only began making an especially active effort in this game when I began chatting with FSM-Reapr.  And he began suspecting me because I suspected him for being ridiculously suspicious.  FSM-Reapr's justification came after the fact, so I can't be blamed for finding suspicious actions suspicious.


My suspicion list should be up shortly, hopefully.  I have to leave by 6:30PM however, so I don't know how much free time I have.

[Mashi]

THE LINK'S NOT WORKING, DUMB.

[Mashi]

THERE.

[Toby]

Come to chat guyss, link for chats in the 'Have it your way' opening post, I'm on phone so can't link it. :<