TWG 45: BOWSER'S BIG BLAST

[Hakan]

Wow, you guys aren't very welcoming!

[Waddle Bro]

Hakan are you Swedish?

[Thiannon]

Wow, this game is moving fast. Two things in particular caught my eye upon reading the last few pages through. The first is this:

Guys, we have to be realistic about this. BDS is undoubtedly the most suspicious player at the moment, and just behind him, I would say TBWCW. The point is that we have (now) 15 humans and one wolf. That's a very small chance that we'll figure out who BOWSER is, let alone if we just lynch someone at random.

Now, I might get my head bit off for this, but we can't be afraid to lynch someone if they turn out to be human. By doing the easy math, the chances of finding out BOWSER would grow exponentially by the loss of humans. Personally, I would be totally willing to let myself be lynched to prove both my point and my humanity.

Now, here's where I'm conflicted. If I were to switch my vote to BDS, I might be framed as a wolf, whereas switching my vote to myself would be just as dangerous, seeing as how I have 3(2?) Already.so for now, I'm removing my vote.

kman sounds like a reasonable guy, which means that he should know how detrimental to the human team the lynching of a human would be (we get at most four lynches, after all). I'm wracking my brain to think of why he would say something like this as a human. Yes, his dying would confirm him as human, meaning we could trust his suspicions, but he'd be a far better advocate for them alive than he would be dead. This seems like a post designed only to try to make him look human. My approach to TWG has always been that "humanity will out"--if you just play rationally, intelligently, and consistently as a human, people will respond to that and, generally speaking, not push lynches of you. Perhaps things are different on NSM, but my read is that kman is overcompensating here, trying to make himself look human instead of trying to find wolves.

Speaking of trying to make oneself look human...

Funny how they are the ones most suspicious of you
I agree with kman's logic about the exponential growth of finding the wolf as more humans die.  We can't avoid the switch deaths, but for lynches, for now we need to keep people with level/logical heads.  BDS, your head is askew and you are causing more controversy and confusion than necessary.  If you are the wolf, this could be the shortest game ever, of all time.  If not, the wolf is probably thriving on this chaos as means to stay hidden.

Also lets not forget that with only one wolf, Bird could be the wolf and just toying with our mind to see how we respond under pressure.  If so, I applaud you for using the idea in a better manner than the last time they did this in TWG XXIII.  If not, I'm paranoid and this will be considered funny.

P.S.NINJA'D X4!!!
P.P.S. X5!!!

sheikah is obviously a competent player, but this post is almost completely devoid of content. I'm not sure if that last paragraph is a joke, but I know Bird and he would not fake us out like that, period. The suggestion he would is either grossly irrational or deliberate obfuscation. The suggestion that we keep people with "level/logical heads" seems like an attempt to build human capital for himself; sheikah clearly is someone of the sort and identifies himself as such. I agree with his point about wolves "thriving on chaos"--it's the one contribution his post really offers. But the obvious approach there is not to lynch distractions (Slippery Slope Logical Fallacy Warning: we do that four times and we lose!) but to try and calm the likes of BDS and TBWCW down. We can reduce the chaos without lynching a player just because he's being a distracting human. In my experience, players who go nuts Day 1 are seldom wolves and often, when left alive, calm down and end up looking really human.

So my vote is for sheikah, though I would also support a kman lynch. You guys obviously know BDS a lot better than I do, but I really don't think he looks wolfy at this point--just overzealous, as does TBWCW. Either way, keeping them around another couple phases can't hurt for observational purposes.

Final note: what's with the self-voting? Is that allowed? How could that ever be a viable strategy? Be forewarned: anyone who self-votes will shoot up my suspicion list. That's a great way to avoid making any contribution to the game whatsoever.

[Dude]

safety on Dude because I just woke up from a two day rest

[Bubbles]

What I think is more important is the wolfing.  The Socialfox wolfing is weird and absolutely should be analyzed.  As a wolf, I know I avoid wolfing players who are new or haven't played recently if it's possible.  It's no secret that Socialfox has been banned from the last game.  Those who are most likely to have wolfed him are those who were angry with him, those who want to frame the people who were angry with him, and people who don't look at previous games when choosing wolfings.  If we're basing it solely on where there's the most conflict between people, Waddle is the most wolfy.  If we're basing it off framing, there are quite a few people who are candidates.  I don't really know what factors people consider when choosing a wolfing, but I do know I was wolfed Night 1 three games in a row at one point, and people who were wolves in that span (Kman and Dude are the only two in this game) I think wouldn't mind wolfing someone who had been unable to play the previous game.

I dont think its a wolf getting revenge on social. I said this before, but social was the one telling us to be wary of our lynchings because of the many deaths in the day phases. I know if I was a wolf I would have chose him, since he wasnt exactly a power-player or a new player, but was thinking beyond the phase logically (except that I panic when I have a special power and use it randomly most of the time )

And Im going to ask this now so in later games Im not suspicious, but why is it a strategy to wolf the least experienced player? Wouldnt you want all the good players dead so the rest cant figure out who the wolf is?

[blueflower999]

Here's what I think: In this game, because there's only one wolf, it's way too easy for the wolf to just fade into the background and not post at all, completely flying under the radar and only posting to either safety/bandwagon, and pick a switch. The good news is that I've been seeing a lot of great activity in this game. There's a much lower percentage of inactive players than I've seen in the past. Which is awesome. However, while Jub is not completely inactive, I haven't really seen any helpful posts from him at all in this day phase. Only one to pick a switch and safety on Bubbles, and then one to say that "BDS might not be a wolf...".

BDS, while you're still acting a little strange, now that I've thought about it more, you don't seem to be defending your position extremely zealously. What I mean by that is that while you did make a few lengthy posts to defend yourself, you're not completely pleading with us not to lynch you in any way possible, which I think BOWSER would do, because he knows that he's the only one, and if he gets lynched, he loses, rather than if he gets lynched, his 2 partners have to continue on without him.

[Kman96]

Here's what I think: In this game, because there's only one wolf, it's way too easy for the wolf to just fade into the background and not post at all, completely flying under the radar and only posting to either safety/bandwagon, and pick a switch. The good news is that I've been seeing a lot of great activity in this game. There's a much lower percentage of inactive players than I've seen in the past. Which is awesome. However, while Jub is not completely inactive, I haven't really seen any helpful posts from him at all in this day phase. Only one to pick a switch and safety on Bubbles, and then one to say that "BDS might not be a wolf...".

BDS, while you're still acting a little strange, now that I've thought about it more, you don't seem to be defending your position extremely zealously. What I mean by that is that while you did make a few lengthy posts to defend yourself, you're not completely pleading with us not to lynch you in any way possible, which I think BOWSER would do, because he knows that he's the only one, and if he gets lynched, he loses, rather than if he gets lynched, his 2 partners have to continue on without him.

^^agreed, however, Mashi is in a similar situation.

Neither of those two hooligans have posted much of anything of value, and I feel as if we should look into that...

[blueflower999]

^Ooh, you're right. See, I'm used to TWGs with 12-14 people, so one with 17 is a little harder for me to keep track of everyone.

Mashi is usually a lot more helpful to the overall game strategy than this, and it looks like people like Verm are taking over.

[Jub3r7]

What I think is more important is the wolfing.  The Socialfox wolfing is weird and absolutely should be analyzed.  As a wolf, I know I avoid wolfing players who are new or haven't played recently if it's possible.  It's no secret that Socialfox has been banned from the last game.  Those who are most likely to have wolfed him are those who were angry with him, those who want to frame the people who were angry with him, and people who don't look at previous games when choosing wolfings.  If we're basing it solely on where there's the most conflict between people, Waddle is the most wolfy.  If we're basing it off framing, there are quite a few people who are candidates.  I don't really know what factors people consider when choosing a wolfing, but I do know I was wolfed Night 1 three games in a row at one point, and people who were wolves in that span (Kman and Dude are the only two in this game) I think wouldn't mind wolfing someone who had been unable to play the previous game.

I'll place a vote on Jub3r7 because defending humans in a manhunt is a great wolf strategy.  Getting behind lynches of them is not.  I also give him the credit to wolf Socialfox in the hopes that it causes other people to become more suspicious.

I have something to admit. When I'm a wolf, I (usually) try to make my wolfings fairly random and not so much based on past games.
And based on all this speculation that it's causing, I don't think this wolfing sounds very random, to be honest.

And yeah, I've actually been pretty inactive so far.
I'm not trying to stay under the radar or anything but this is only my 3rd post and 12 pages have already gone by.

Wow, you guys aren't very welcoming!

I'm sorry! Welcome to the forums!
If you go anywhere else besides the twg subforum, you'll find that we're a lot less hostile. XD

[K-NiGhT]

^no. I'm always this hostile 

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If you go anywhere else besides the twg subforum, you'll find that we're a lot less hostile. XD

True, true.

But I suppose we better introduce the "newer" players and help them help us find the wolf.

[Kman96]

^no. I'm always this hostile 

xD funny, seeing how you haven't been very hostile this game xDDD

[Mashi]

Hmm, activity seems to drastically increase as the number of LLF Players increases even if they've only made contributions a bit later than NSMers.  Interesting...
But guys, don't make me look bad in front of my friends!!!   I do a good enough job of that at LLF already!
And in response to my absence, I was hanging out with Ruto and Saria for all of yesterday, so...!

I feel that TheBoyWhoCriedWolf's reasoning for voting BlackDragonSlayer are a bit too farfetched.  Perhaps he's overzealous, as Thiannon stated, but I'm not too sure.  I'll place a tentative vote on him for now, but I'll be in the chat and the vote will be likely to change once I scrutinise the topic.  Thiannon is still at the top of my suspicion list, however!!!

TheBoyWhoCriedWolf

[Kman96]

Seeing as how I'm more believing of BDS' claim, i did state that i was secondly suspicious of Boy. Thanks to Mashi's point, I think I'd be interested in a TBWCW lynch.

Discussion?

[Hakan]

Confession, I joined NSM way before 90% of you did! In fact, I have some really old submissions to the site. If you can figure out who I am, you're not a wolf.

That being said, I can see where the Toby accusations are coming from (I call TBWCW Toby). But my vote shall remain on Kman96 to avoid a bandwagon.