TWG 45: BOWSER'S BIG BLAST

[vermilionvermin]

I'd rather lynch Shadowkirby than Hakan at this point.  It looks like Hakan will likely die from not choosing a switch anyways.

[Mashi]

Okay, so.

I'm suspicious of vermilionvermin now!!!
Why?

For one thing, he has been active, trying to promote activity, and has thus become sort of a leader in the lynches.  Yet he hasn't been wolfed yet.  There are only three Players who I believe wouldn't wolf vermilionvermin out of strategy from the remaining Players; Hakan, Jub3r7, and I.  I know I'm Human, I feel that Hakan is too inactive to be the Wolf, and Jub3r7 hasn't done anything out of the ordinary to make me suspect him.  Thus, I suspect the cause of his living to be because he's the Wolf himself!

Original Post

What I think is more important is the wolfing.  The Socialfox wolfing is weird and absolutely should be analyzed.

Something about this statement by vermilionvermin seems a bit off to me; I feel that it's a bit forced (especially the italicised part), as if to make superficial leads.  He mentions candidates such as Waddle Bro, Kman96, and Doodle, but never does anything with them.  Although Kman96 does indeed become suspicious later on, the wolfing is never brought up again.  Furthermore, this is the only time that vermilionvermin ever makes to make a major analysis the wolfing, hence why I feel the basis of the post is superficial.

During Night 2, Thiannon was wolfed.  Out of all the Players in the game, I would suspect SocialFox, Hakan, vermilionvermin, The Boy Who Cried Wolf, me, and Jub3r7 to make that wolfing.  Accounting for the now dead Players, only me, Jub3r7, and vermilionvermin remain.  Night 1, however, SocialFox was wolfed; I don't wolf returning Players, new Players, or friends Night 1.  I'll also give vermilionvermin and Jub3r7 a bit of leeway on that; I'm not sure of their record for wolfing such Players Night 1, but I think they both have the courtesy not to.  Though, I wouldn't put it passed either to be a bit unconventional and do so.  vermilionvermin in particular, of course!!!
The reason I suspect vermillionvermin a lot, however, is because Thiannon was wolfed and, unless the wolfings are being made randomly or without thought, he was probably wolfed for his skill and helpfulness.  However, I think that at that point, vermilionvermin may have been a better target for the wolfing, since he appeared to be more of a lead figure than Thiannon did.
Bubbles being wolfed instead of vermilionvermin makes me wonder why vermilionvermin wasn't wolfed for the same reason as Thiannon, and I suspect that it's because he's a Wolf!!!  Coincidentally, Bubbles is one of the Players vermilionvermin was very confident of being Human and her being wolfed is something I could see vermilionvermin planning as a Wolf to more easily lynch Players he himself finds suspicious.

And then there's this post too:

I'd rather lynch Shadowkirby than Hakan at this point.  It looks like Hakan will likely die from not choosing a switch anyways.

I feel that Hakan not picking a switch would be enough evidence for vermilionvermin to explicitly state a reconsideration of his suspicions of Hakan.  The way he says that too makes me feel like he just wants to get rid of as many Players as possible.

I also feel that his suspicions in general seem very contrived.  He brings goods points for people's humanities, but I feel that his evidence for suspicions are below par.  His suspicion for Hakan could really go both ways; Hakan may either say he no longer desires to play as a Wolf to troll or as a Human because he truly doesn't.  Same thing goes for his suspicion for shadowkirby and blueflower999; making posts with only filler content?  How many times has that method helped in finding Wolves?  Overall, I think vermilionvermin's suspicions are awfully contrived.  He's had some suspicions which I've majorly disagreed with when we were both Humans as well, but not as artificial as these, I feel.

Also, Magical Mystery Switch.

Discuss.

[vermilionvermin]

Blueflower and dude picked the same switch.  Defense will be coming in about 5 minutes unless i'm interrupted.

[Hakan]

abbey switch
How is nighthawk/verblahblahblah not dead yet.

[FSM-Reapr]

If you want to get lynched WHY ON EARTH you want to continue playing?

[Mashi]

hakan how do i know youre not actually the red knight

[vermilionvermin]

He probably posted because I sent a PM on LLF asking him to so that he would pick a switch.  If he didn't this might very well be our last lynch.

[vermilionvermin]

First part of my defense is I would never wolf Socialfox.  Yes it's an old quote, but here's the important part of it.

I had heard that you, S/A, and Liggy were popular wolf targets. After looking at the past three or four games, I found that Liggy and S/A always died on the first night. It wouldn't have been nice to continue that, so I looked for the last time you had died night 1. It had never happened on this forum. I also didn't know it was so off-limits to wolf you night one.

This was in my first game as a wolf.  I had no partners.  This was in the postgame of that game.  The point is I'm not lying.  I don't wolf players who have been wolfed recently or haven't been able to play in a while.  I'm sure I've said it elsewhere, but that's the only place I could remember off the top of my head and most of the rest of them were probably in chats.

What I think is more important is the wolfing.  The Socialfox wolfing is weird and absolutely should be analyzed.

Something about this statement by vermilionvermin seems a bit off to me; I feel that it's a bit forced (especially the italicised part), as if to make superficial leads.  He mentions candidates such as Waddle Bro, Kman96, and Doodle, but never does anything with them.  Although Kman96 does indeed become suspicious later on, the wolfing is never brought up again.  Furthermore, this is the only time that vermilionvermin ever makes to make a major analysis the wolfing, hence why I feel the basis of the post is superficial.

I disagree with this!  The main reason I worded it that way was because I hadn't been around for a good deal of the day phase, and I would have expected discussion to have centered around that since it's a weird wolfing that a lot of people wouldn't make at all and a lot of people would have an additional motive to make.  And I did discuss it with respect to lots of people.  I sent you my original suspicion list.  I discussed it with respect to Hakan a ton.  Thiannon died early, but I did think he was more likely than most to make it.  The evidence against Kman and Dude was weak at best.  I know I've also discussed how the Thiannon wolfing points more to certain people than others.

I'm not going to argue that I'd never wolf Thiannon because that'd be lying.  I don't know if I'd have done it on Night 2 though.  I probably would have given him another day phase before I killed him.  He wasn't a threat to me at that time because he didn't suspect me, at least as far as I know.  If I were a wolf, I would have kept him occupied with Kman and Sheikah another day before killing him.

I'll also argue that I wouldn't have made the Bubbles wolfing.  Bubbles trusted me.  You and I both got that PM she sent discussing the switches.  She probably didn't want that posted in the thread, so I won't do it.  If I were a wolf I'd avoid wolfing players who trusted me that much.  I suppose this argument goes in circles because then I could use that to make me look human if I were a wolf.

I feel that Hakan not picking a switch would be enough evidence for vermilionvermin to explicitly state a reconsideration of his suspicions of Hakan.  The way he says that too makes me feel like he just wants to get rid of as many Players as possible.

Hakan's definitely not the top spot on my suspicion list anymore.  I think I might have been about to leave the house when I made that post, which is why it's so brief.

As for Blueflower, that suspicion was written mostly because I think a lot of other people were human.  I know it's not a cohesive argument, but when I wrote that I was trying to look more closely into blueflower, and I didn't care whether or not it was a good argument.  I just wanted to make one to get more discussion going on blueflower.  My gut told me after writing it that he wasn't a wolf, so I dropped him from first to third.

I'd still like to lynch Shadowkirby though.  He really needs to say something besides which switch he'd like.

[Mashi]

Hakan, you should post a defence too, Mister!!!

[Mashi]

vermilionvermin swayed me a bit, so I'm going to just trust his instinct for now and also vote shadowkirby for now.

[Dude]

sorry, Pc went boom

[Toby]

Death Post

[Dude]

white switch
damnit

[Jub3r7]

we all live in a yellow submarine switch, suspicion list in a little bit if I don't suddenly die

[Jub3r7]

hakan because a person instructed me to do so and I sort of agree with it for reasons I listed in a chat log posted earlier in the thread