TWG XLIV: The Pokemon League

[Mashi]

I sent this to Jub3r7 beforehand:

[2:29:57 PM] Daniel Bhatti: Going to send a fake PM to gzgregory.
[2:30:05 PM] Daniel Bhatti: Because I think he's a wuff.
[2:30:18 PM] Daniel Bhatti: "So the plan is vigi BlackDragonSlayer, wolf Bubbles7689.
Sound good???"
[2:30:22 PM] Daniel Bhatti: And see how he responds!!!

Reason being because of all of this:
This message has been removed.
[12:16:35 AM | Removed 12:20:43 AM] Jub: This message has been removed.
[12:16:51 AM | Removed 12:20:51 AM] Jub: This message has been removed.
[12:20:25 AM] Jub: oh wait am I alive
[12:21:29 AM] Jub: I think so
[12:21:39 AM] Jub: anyways deleted messages are about a dead guy asking if I was a wolf
[12:22:02 AM] Jub: And I was like "nup"
[12:22:10 AM] Jub: But I'm pretty sure that guy was a wolf
[12:45:24 AM] Daniel Bhatti: did you check the timing of the message
[12:45:53 AM] Daniel Bhatti: If it were before the Phase ended, you didn't need to delete it.
[12:45:53 AM] Jub: I'll do that now
[12:46:17 AM] Jub: (No subject)
« Sent to: Jub3r7 on: December 15, 2012, 08:49:53 PM »
[12:46:39 AM] Jub: Also, if it was after the phase, this never happened!!!
[12:46:45 AM] Jub: Because I don't want doodle to be in trouble
[12:46:50 AM] Daniel Bhatti: It was before.
[12:46:51 AM] Daniel Bhatti:
[12:47:12 AM] Daniel Bhatti: It was cute and responsible of you to pay attention to his being dead though.
[12:47:37 AM] Daniel Bhatti: But did you read the message!?!
[12:47:42 AM] Jub: Yes
[12:47:59 AM] Jub: I didn't know if he was dead or not when I received your message and started telling you that he messaged me
[12:48:20 AM | Edited 12:48:24 AM] Jub: b:
[12:48:51 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Ohhh, so you didn't delete it yet.
[12:49:45 AM] Jub: Oh
[12:49:52 AM] Jub: I meant deleted messages above
[12:49:55 AM] Jub: on skype chat just now
[12:50:02 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Oh, my mistake then!
[12:50:12 AM] Jub: "So I'm thinking you're the master wolf and BDS is one of the red rivals.

Am I close at all?"
[12:50:39 AM] Jub: I was thinking BDS too but I'm fairly certain that I'm not a wolf
[12:51:29 AM] Daniel Bhatti: :O
[12:51:33 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Yaaaaay.
[12:51:57 AM] Jub: hbu
[12:52:13 AM] Daniel Bhatti: I thought he was a Wolf as well.
[12:52:14 AM] Jub: I think you're human
[12:52:25 AM] Daniel Bhatti: :O
[12:52:28 AM] Daniel Bhatti: y???
[12:53:46 AM] Jub: because sometime during phase 2 you were like "wait wolves don't know each other?"
[12:54:10 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Oh yeah.
[12:54:19 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Too bad the other Players don't agree!!!
[12:55:35 AM] Jub: What
[12:55:40 AM] Jub: Do they think you are a wolf
[12:55:52 AM] Daniel Bhatti: They think I'm suspicious.
[12:55:58 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Or some of them, rather.
[12:56:38 AM] Jub: tell them that if they think you are a wolf, then they are obviously wolves because you are obviously human and they are trying to frame you
[12:56:50 AM] Jub: and be very serious about it
[12:57:01 AM] Daniel Bhatti: :O
[12:57:07 AM] Daniel Bhatti: I sort of did that, hahaha.
[12:58:34 AM] Jub: Anyways, I have five days to save the world
[12:58:47 AM] Jub: I am just waiting for a phone call. Until then, I will be preparing!!!!
[12:58:50 AM] Daniel Bhatti: :O
[12:58:56 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Phone call from whom???
[12:59:00 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Wait.
[12:59:03 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Let me log on.
[12:59:07 AM] Daniel Bhatti: Into my other Skype!!!
[12:59:10 AM] Jub: o ok
[2:29:57 PM] Daniel Bhatti: Going to send a fake PM to gzgregory.
[2:30:05 PM] Daniel Bhatti: Because I think he's a wuff.
[2:30:18 PM] Daniel Bhatti: "So the plan is vigi BlackDragonSlayer, wolf Bubbles7689.
Sound good???"
[2:30:22 PM] Daniel Bhatti: And see how he responds!!!

[Bubbles]

No wolfing please

But mashi why would you try to trick gzgregory into thinking you were wolf partners by saying to vigi BDS? Would'nt a wolf go for the unsuspected, someone who seems human?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Uh, what?

Where did Mashi say that? :S (nevermind, ninja'd)

Since I know I'm not a wolf, I can more easily discern through facts; unless I'm that much of a threat, the wolves won't bother to wolf me (as demonstrated in previous games, when I was much more valuable as someone to frame as a wolf). Either way, unless there's only one wolf left by the phase's end, we might not have much chance otherwise.

I notice, Mashi, that you tend to be taking risks that could end up "exposing" (depending on whether you ARE a wolf or not) you as a wolf, both with Dude and gzgregory. I have a feeling that you didn't just claim to Dude...
If Dude had a fire starter, and one human still has a fire starter, then, if you plan doesn't work, which is/was not likely, then they might see you as the wolf, and (again, depending on circumstance of if/is) seek to vigi you.

Sorry if the above has been too confusing.

[Mashi]

If Dude had a Fire Starter, I would have traded a random Pokemon with him to receive it.
And gzgregory had no reason to believe I was a Wolf as far as I was aware.  But since he's the only person with a Fire Starter left, I felt obligated to make sure he was Human so that he wouldn't be a Wolf and vigi a random Human and possibly win.
I said to vigi BlackDragonSlayer to lead him to believe that the 3 Wolves were me, him, and Doodle (under the presumption that he himself was a Wolf, meaning that BlackDragonSlayer was Human).  I had to name BlackDragonSlayer to give him a chance to prove his humanity, since it gives him a chance to evaluate what just happened and post in the thread quickly after receiving the PM.

And really, if you people are having doubts on my being Human, take notice to how I was wolfed Night 1, didn't realise the Wolves knew each other in the beginning of the game, and how I'm actually trying to help (albeit through complicated methods, but that's my style!).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

And really, if you people are having doubts on my being Human, take notice to how I was wolfed Night 1, didn't realise the Wolves knew each other in the beginning of the game, and how I'm actually trying to help (albeit through complicated methods, but that's my style!).

If I'm not a wolf, and gzgregory isn't a wolf, and you're not a wolf, then it means that Bubbles and Jub are wolves, unless davy was the Master Wolf.
But wouldn't that be what a wolf would want us to think?? You could be trying to confuse us (by making yourself seem innocent and pushing us off into another direction); catch us off track by wondering if the wolves know each other.

[Mashi]

Use logic.
It's rather clear that I'm Human.  Instead of over-analysing my actions, accept them as aid to the Human Team.  If there's a 1/35893593489534th chance of something happening, you can usually presume it's not happening.

[Waddle Bro]

Actually it's 1/52393693439434th chance of something happening.

You're welcome.

[Mashi]

Darn, my plan of reducing probability has been foiled!!!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Use logic.
It's rather clear that I'm Human.  Instead of over-analysing my actions, accept them as aid to the Human Team.  If there's a 1/35893593489534th chance of something happening, you can usually presume it's not happening.

But that is not the chance, given that there are only four people, aside from myself, left. Blindly stumbling around is not an efficient mode of transportation, so to say.

[Mashi]

If you want to follow most likely probability, we would be vigi/lynching you for your Red colour.

[Mashi]

Bubbles, BlackDragonSlayer, come to the chat!!!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If you want to follow most likely probability, we would be vigi/lynching you for your Red colour.

Incorrect; as I have said, and backed up by numerous reasons, unless I was painted (making Jub a wolf?), then I'm the miller.

[Waddle Bro]

Milotic, Salamence and Metagross do not work on fainted Pokemon. If they're used on a fainted Pokemon, it will fail.

[Mashi]

17:20      *** BlackDragonSlayer joined #TWGNSM
17:20   Vera   Yaaay.
17:20   BlackDragonSlayer   ...
17:20   waddle   Hello.
17:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Hey waddle.
17:21   BlackDragonSlayer   I wonder if Bubbles is coming...
17:21   waddle   Mashi can you give me an OP?
17:21      +++ Vera has given op to waddle
17:21   waddle   I'm bored.
17:21   waddle   yaay
17:21   Vera   So BlackDragonSlayer.
17:21   BlackDragonSlayer   Want me to write a basic creepypasta?
17:21   Vera   What evidence is there of your humanity!?!?!
17:21   Vera   Not now, time is of the essence!!!
17:21   BlackDragonSlayer   1: In every game but one, I have been the miller.
New rule: Mashi is going to win even if he loses
Topic set by waddle on Sun Dec 16 2012 17:22:00 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time)
17:22   waddle   
17:22   BlackDragonSlayer   2: I have a grass starter, and I'm willing to help the humans.
17:22   BlackDragonSlayer   3: I'm suspicious of people for logical reasons.
17:22   Vera   ilu2 waddle
17:22   Vera   Like your suspicion of me?
17:22   BlackDragonSlayer   As in, I don't just make up convoluted things with no basis in fact.
17:23   BlackDragonSlayer   Yes; one can learn much from chats...
17:23   BlackDragonSlayer   ...like how you released that chat log to try and frame me as a wolf...
17:23   BlackDragonSlayer   ...or how you claimed to Dude with no hesitation, or what you just did with gzgregory (the latter actually makes more sense)...
17:23   Vera   Huh.
17:24   Vera   Oh, that.
17:24   Vera   You're ignoring that I was sort of wolfed Night 1.
17:24   BlackDragonSlayer   Wolves don't know each other.
17:24   Vera   And that I didn't realise that the Wolves knew each other.
17:24   Vera   I realise that now!
17:24   Vera   And that I sort of just confirmed gzgregory to be Human!
17:25   BlackDragonSlayer   Although I'd agree with you, given the circumstance, you could be 'in cohorts' with him, if he's a wolf.
17:25   BlackDragonSlayer   There are reasons, currently, where anyone could be a wolf. O
17:26   BlackDragonSlayer   For example:
17:26   waddle   O?
17:26   BlackDragonSlayer   O is right next to P
17:26   waddle   ohhhhhhh
17:26   waddle   still don't get it
17:26   BlackDragonSlayer   Jub: Has Smeargle; could easily use it to paint wolves; has been a little suspicious.
17:26   Vera   He accidentally hit both keys.
17:27   BlackDragonSlayer   Mashi: *reasons above*
17:27   Vera   Your reasons are dumb!
17:27   Vera   There's more evidence pointing towards you being a Wolf.
17:27   BlackDragonSlayer   In your opinion...
17:27   BlackDragonSlayer   Not quite, unless you factor in bias.
17:27   Vera   If we took an objective approach.
17:27   Vera   We would focus on probability.
17:28   Vera   And it's not in your favour.
17:28   Vera   Whereas it's much in my favour.
17:28   BlackDragonSlayer   Since I was the first person revealed as red, there will be an obvious bias toward people thinking I'm a wolf.
17:28   waddle   duh
17:28   Vera   That's what I'm saying!
17:28   BlackDragonSlayer   If, let's say, Bubbles was the first person revealed as red, I might not be as suspicious.
17:28   Vera   Probability is higher.
17:28   Vera   I would be suspicious!
17:29   BlackDragonSlayer   Not in this case, given the circumstances deciding the factors.
17:29   Vera   You're really making me especially suspicious of you and Bubbles.
17:29   BlackDragonSlayer   I am suspicious of Bubbles as well... but the same with everyone else... ;|
17:29   BlackDragonSlayer   :|
17:30   waddle   best strategy evr
17:30   Vera   i no rite
17:30   Vera   totes gona win!!!
17:30   waddle   be suspicious of everyone
17:30   Vera   Make a decision, BlackDragonSlayer!
17:30   BlackDragonSlayer   And why did Dude pick k-NiGhT in particular.
17:30   Vera   Choose 2 Players whom you believe are the remaining Wolves.
17:31   Vera   Probably because he was confirmed and everyone else was suspicious in some way.
17:31   BlackDragonSlayer   If my life depended on a victory: Mashi and gzgregory... or Mashi and Jub3r7
17:31   BlackDragonSlayer   Or Mashi and Bubbles...
17:32   Vera   So you're set on me being a Wolf.
17:32   Vera   Despite the overwhelming evidence towards my humanity.
17:32   Vera   GJ.
17:32   BlackDragonSlayer   But mostly the first two; if I were to go with Bubbles as a wolf, I might find that it would be more likely that another person would be a wolf.
17:32   Vera   gzgregory may possibly vigi me, I think.
17:32   BlackDragonSlayer   "Overwhelming" is in the eye of the beholder (coughvera)
17:32   Vera   Since he hasn't seen my defence for my actions.
17:33   Vera   Overwhelming is in the eyes of the rational.
17:33   BlackDragonSlayer   Shady actions, and could possibly not reap enough reward.
17:33   Vera   What are you talking about.
17:33   BlackDragonSlayer   I am rational, and I do not see overwhelming.
17:33   Vera   Those shady actions did one of two things: Reveal a Wolf, confirm a Human.
17:33   Vera   I confirmed a Human.
17:33   BlackDragonSlayer   Shady actions that are ultra-risky.
17:34   Vera   That wasn't risky at all!
17:34   Vera   And besides, I do such things all the time.
17:34   BlackDragonSlayer   Whether or not gzgregory is a wolf, he probably would've done the same thing, in fear of himself.
17:34   Vera   No, he wouldn't.
17:34   BlackDragonSlayer   Since the wolves don't know each other, they're a lot less likely to trust each other.
17:34   BlackDragonSlayer   Yes, he might have.
17:34   Vera   No.
17:34   Vera   Because he wouldn't want to kill a fellow Wolf.
17:34   Vera   Don't try to make a possibility seem likely.
17:35   BlackDragonSlayer   He wouldn't kill a fellow wolf either way.
17:35   Vera   When it's probability of occurring is practically 0.
17:35   Vera   Yes, he would!
17:35   BlackDragonSlayer   You're doing the same thing
17:35   Vera   If I were a Wolf, his revealing me would most likely have me killed.
17:35   BlackDragonSlayer   A likely possibility is more than just a possiblity.
17:35   Vera   The possibility of my being a Wolf is ridiculously small.
17:35   BlackDragonSlayer   No; Dude didn't mention your claim.
17:36   BlackDragonSlayer   For example.
17:36   Vera   Yeah, I didn't really get that either.
17:36   BlackDragonSlayer   If he didn't have a reason to.
17:37   BlackDragonSlayer   At this point, a wolf might not care about finding his/her partners as long as he/she was alive.
17:37   Vera   No.
17:37   BlackDragonSlayer   Unless they already knew them previously.
17:37   Vera   An experienced Wolf would care.
17:37   BlackDragonSlayer   Why not; it would be foolish to accidentally reveal yourself to a human.
17:37   Vera   Because it's end game.
17:37   BlackDragonSlayer   Think of it.
17:37   BlackDragonSlayer   That's my point.
17:38   Vera   Following your logic, that makes me appear even more Human.
17:38   BlackDragonSlayer   Incorrect.
17:38   Vera   Since I committed such a risky action.
17:38   Vera   Since you love probability.
17:38   BlackDragonSlayer   You're going in an opposite direction.
17:38   Vera   Let me show you the probability of me being a Wolf from the wolfing alone.
17:38   Vera   There were 12 Players Night 1.
17:38   Vera   The chances of me being wolfed were 1/12.
17:39   Vera   Since Wolves don't know each other
17:39   Vera   .
17:39   Vera   I guarded myself, the chances of it being successful being 1/12.
17:39   BlackDragonSlayer   It would make sense that you would claim to Dude, who was already revealed as a wolf; he wouldn't have a problem telling that to you again.
17:39   Vera   1/12x1/12
17:39   Vera   1/144
17:39   Vera   There's less than 1% chance of me being a Wolf from an objective probability approach.
17:40   BlackDragonSlayer   No, that's not the chance of you being a wolf. Merely guarding yourself does not mean that you're not a wolf; it just means that you suspect that you'll be a target, for whatever reason.
17:40   waddle   Damn it's snowing hard in here
17:41   Vera   And I suspect of being a target because I'm Human and fear being wolfed.
17:41   Vera   But you refuse to accept that.
17:41   BlackDragonSlayer   Wolf and fearing wolfing.
17:41   Vera   In your Confirmation Bias and Belief Perseverance.
17:41   BlackDragonSlayer   Because there's no reason to accept it and only it.
17:41   Vera   Why would I waste a guard when I didn't know it would go through?
17:41   BlackDragonSlayer   Because if you didn't, you would've been wolfed.
17:41   Vera   I didn't know that.
17:41   BlackDragonSlayer   Whether or not you KNEW it.
17:41   Vera   No.
17:42   BlackDragonSlayer   You didn't think you were going to be wolfed, but you used your guard anyway... backwards...
17:42   Vera   Your logic is pretty ridiculous.
17:42      +++ waddle has given voice to waddle
17:43   BlackDragonSlayer   No more so than yours
17:43   Vera   No.
17:43   waddle   my christmas present
17:43   Vera   Because people agree with mine.
17:43   BlackDragonSlayer   Then that's your opinion.
17:43   waddle   I got a voice
17:43   Vera   There's no absolute objectivity.
17:43      *** ETFROXX joined #TWGNSM
17:43   BlackDragonSlayer   I can't hear it. :S
17:43   waddle   Hi ETFROXX!
17:43   Vera   To try to reach it is a chimera.
17:43   Vera   Hi, ETF!
17:43   Vera   And Waddle, I'll give you better gifts!!!
17:44   ETFROXX   hii
17:44   BlackDragonSlayer   Well, I simply must go and finish this 3-page science report.
17:44   Vera   How have you been, ETF???
17:44   Vera   
17:44   ETFROXX   ok
17:44   ETFROXX   tired
17:44   ETFROXX   you?
17:44   BlackDragonSlayer   Have fun releasing this chat log to make me seem like a wolf.
17:44   Vera   Busy.
17:44   Vera   Sure thing, BlackDragonSlayer!
17:44      *** BlackDragonSlayer quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I am surprised that you included the last part right before I left. I am also surprised how difficult it is to find sources openly supporting GM foods.